Up next in 10
The Conservative Party conference is underway in Birmingham.
Andrew Marr is joined by guests from the conference, as well as a data expert, to discuss what's been announced so far, and what we can still expect.
01:43 | Andrew grills Tory MP and Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Helen Whately about the party's proposed welfare plans
10:05 | Peter Kellner Former President of YouGov and political commentator Peter Kellner weighs in with the stats
13:45 | LBC's political correspondent Bethany Dawson reports from the conference
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
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0:00
Last month, Andy Burnham at Labour's conference in Liverpool helped to shift the political mood
0:05
of British politics, or as we sometimes say, he changed the weather. This week, it's the turn of
0:12
Kemi Badenok, the Tory leader in Birmingham. Now, I rather like the fact that she has begun
0:18
by going back to basics on the economy and Conservative philosophy, publishing a personal
0:24
manifesto called The Right Way. It's her response to Andy Burnham's attack on neoliberalism and
0:32
Margaret Thatcher's legacy. And the big picture is that we can now have a proper argument about
0:38
the size of the state, about tax, and about growth. And that is the argument which, as a
0:45
grown-up country, we need to have. And these two parties have mirror image problems, just as we
0:52
don't know how Andy Burnham would fully fund his new national care service, so we don't know how
0:57
Kemi Badenok, given where today's economy is, would pay for the big promises on inheritance tax
1:03
and the other tax cut pledges we're expecting this week. But meanwhile, for different reasons
1:10
the radical challenges to the more familiar politics of Badenok and Burnham, from Polanski's
1:15
Greens on the one side to Farage's reform on the other, seem just a little less pressing than they
1:21
did a few months ago. This doesn't mean, of course, that the old parties don't face huge questions
1:28
Central to the Conservative position on government borrowing and the size of the state
1:32
is the promise of deep cuts to welfare, particularly to PIP and other payments to younger claimants
1:38
who often say they can't work because of mental conditions such as ADHD and stress
1:45
The Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary who's leading this argument, Helen Waitley
1:49
joins us now live from Birmingham. Helen, thank you very much for being with us
1:53
Can I start by asking about universal credit? Because you are proposing as a party
1:57
30% cut in universal credit for an awful lot of younger people in particular
2:02
who haven't been working for long. How much money will that save? Well, actually, that policy is not our biggest saving policy
2:10
We did a Conservative estimate that that would save us in the round of around £500 million
2:16
It could save us more if more people get back to work. But that is part of a very principled approach that we are taking to welfare reform
2:24
And as you were referring to a moment ago in your announcements, we are planning very substantial
2:28
savings across the board. But what that policy is about is about getting people who are long-term
2:34
unemployed who could and should be working to be working. We've got about 1.1 million people who've
2:40
been unemployed for over six months. And what we're saying is actually in that situation
2:45
after six months on universal credit, if you haven't taken up a job
2:50
the level of universal credit you get will indeed fall by around 30%
2:54
And to your point about whether that will particularly affect young people, actually the vast majority, over 90% of the people who expect to be affected by that policy
3:03
will be people who are over 25. This is about getting the long-term unemployed to get back to work
3:09
Well, that's something that slightly confuses me because the policy says that
3:13
For every two years you're working, you get an extra year in full universal credit
3:18
Therefore, the people who will be most affected will be people who haven't been working for very long
3:22
And therefore, I'm thinking of somebody who's maybe 21 years old, has looked for a job, tried to get a job, can't get a job, and you're going to cut their benefit by 30%
3:30
Now, the benefit is already pretty hard to live on. People are going to food banks
3:34
I'm just wondering if that is too tough, frankly, too cruel an ask. So the crucial difference here is between people, for instance, who we recognise that some people will have worked for decades and then they might fall on hard times, they might be made redundant
3:50
We recognise that they have been paying in for years and we want to recognise their contribution
3:55
So as you were just describing there, they will get longer on that full rate of universal credit
4:00
But what we also have is people not particularly young people people who may have been on universal credit and not taking up work opportunities for many many years because actually they getting by OK on welfare And we saying that not fair on the taxpayer That has to change And therefore the incentives need to be there People have to know that they will be better off
4:25
in work than on welfare. And they're going to get their help through a new card, as I understand it
4:30
which they won't be able to spend on cigarettes or alcohol or gambling or presumably some other
4:36
things as well. Again, I ask, is it really fair for somebody who has struggled and been unable to
4:41
You take away the half pint of beer occasionally. The situation here is that we have taxpayers who are many of themselves struggling to pay the bills, paying their taxes
4:53
And then what they're seeing is people spending money with benefits money on things that actually that hardworking taxpayer themselves can't afford
5:02
And lots of people are cutting back on essentials at the moment. And as I say, I come across lots of examples of people who are actually turning down opportunities to work, even in the harder job climate that there is at the moment
5:14
This is happening. One thing employers say to me is we have to make it make sense for British people to take up the work opportunities that there are
5:22
Well, let me turn to PIPs or personal independence payments, which is the other big issue here for a lot of people
5:28
And again, you know, your party and you have said that you're going to you think far too many people with ADHD or stress or depression or anxiety are able to access PIPs and be paid not to work
5:41
And this is clearly a problem. And in that group, there'll be an awful lot of people, I'm afraid, who probably are swinging the lead and are exploiting the system
5:48
But there are many, many more who are genuinely mentally unhappy and distressed and vulnerable
5:55
How are you going to ensure that you don't push people who are already in a terrible state over the edge
6:02
This is about doing this reform properly and thoughtfully. But as you were saying, we know we absolutely know that the sickness benefit system, the PIP system of personal independence payments isn't working
6:14
We've seen a huge rise in the amount being spent on PIP and that's forecast to continue to go up steeply
6:20
particularly for people claiming for reasons of mental health and neurodiversity and particularly amongst younger people
6:27
And the fact is our country isn't getting sicker at the rate at which these claims are going up
6:32
One thing that we know is not working is the way the system is assessing people
6:37
and it's simply not managing to identify who could and should actually be working
6:42
rather than claiming sickness benefits. It's not managing to really identify what the extra costs are that people are facing
6:49
because of their sickness and disability. So we are rethinking that whole system
6:54
So we do a much better job of identifying who needs help and then, in addition to that, what help they should get
7:00
And it shouldn't necessarily be cash month in, month out. It might well be treatment or support so they can work
7:06
All right. You talked about a part of the benefits bill, which is ballooning. Let me ask you about another part that is ballooning
7:12
and in the view of many, many people, unaffordable, which is the triple lock on pensions
7:16
That ratchet, which means more and more money is paid whatever happens to pensioners year by year
7:21
Andrew Griffiths, who's the shadow chancellor, said recently that he thought it was unfair additional tax burden
7:27
on working people. Why is he wrong? Well, there was a very specific thing that I know Andrew Griffiths said
7:33
just as we came out of the pandemic and when there was adjustment made to the triple lock
7:38
because of the impact of furlough on wages. But the fact is, you know, we brought in the triple lock
7:44
It's an important policy. it's important to making sure that pensioners have the income they need to live off
7:51
Sorry to jump in. Sorry to jump in. Well, I just want to say on this, I mean, Andy Burnham threw this out last week at the Labour Party conference
7:57
I think to distract from the fact that he's not making any savings from the working age welfare bill
8:01
and to try and get everyone talking about this instead and the free social care policy, which will cost far, far more
8:07
To be fair, it is worth talking about because it is unaffordable and it's going up and up and up
8:12
I hear what you say about Andrew Griffith. Let me give you another shadow cabinet colleague of yours, Tom Tugendhat, who described it as simply not affordable
8:21
We do not have enough young people for an ageing population. That means, I'm afraid, that we do need to look at the triple lock again
8:29
He's right, isn't he? You know he's right. You know it's unaffordable. Actually so I look at what we need to do to turn around our economy And one of the things we desperately need to do is get people of working age including young people off benefits and into work
8:44
That has a double benefit to our country. One is obviously that you're no longer putting the bill for the benefits for those people not working
8:53
but the other is they're then contributing to our economy, contributing to growth, having the stronger, bigger economy we need
9:00
to fund, indeed, pensions for those who can no longer work, along with, for instance, bringing down the deficit and funding defence
9:07
which we're going to be talking about tomorrow at our conference and our session about stronger Britain
9:11
And for that, as you keep saying, you need growth. Jeremy Hunt, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer
9:16
has described the Triple Lock as an anchor drag on economic growth
9:20
Again, I just put it to you. The reason that you're not prepared to face up to this is that so many older voters have voted Conservative and you're in a fight with reform
9:29
It's an electorally tactical thing, not a principled one. Not at all. Actually, it very much goes to our principles
9:36
One of the principles about the welfare reforms that we've just been talking about is recognising contribution, recognising people, for instance, who've worked for longer, being able to be supported on universal credit for longer
9:49
we recognise that state pensioners have also contributed for many, many years
9:54
and that should be recognised in the pensions that they receive. All right, Helen Wakeley, it's an argument I think we're all going to be having for years to come
10:02
but for the moment thank you very much indeed for joining us from Birmingham. And the question is, has any of this so far moved the needle for the Tories
10:09
I'm joined now by the pollster and former president of YouGov, Peter Kellner
10:13
Peter, great to have you back on the show. I think it's fair to say that Kemi Badenock is still doing pretty well in terms of personal satisfaction ratings
10:20
but it's not necessarily translating to the Tory party yet. That's right. A year ago, Kemi Badenock's figures were simply terrible, as were the Conservatives
10:31
Now, the Conservatives' rating is still terrible, maybe up a point or two on a year ago, but not much more than that
10:38
Kimmy Bainton-Ock, she's recovered. And indeed, in the last weeks of Keir Starmer's premiership
10:46
she was ahead of him. Now Andy Burnham's come along. She's still up where she was a year ago
10:52
but she's now well behind Andy Burnham. And is it possible from looking at what people are interested in
10:58
looking at the polling, to give her any advice about how to lift the Conservative position in the country
11:03
I think it depends, Andrew, on what their real ambition is. Let me explain
11:10
Three times in the last 50 years, a party's been thrown out of government
11:14
Each time, it's taken them a decade or so to come back into contention
11:18
Labour after 1979, the Tories after 1997, Labour after 2010. And the party leader in that first year of opposition never became prime minister
11:28
Michael Foote. William Hayes. So it seems to me that if I were as I was secretly advising the Tories
11:41
I would say your main job is to be around after the next election
11:45
to be in contention for the election after. That means seeing off reform because I don't think they can really get back
11:55
the centre ground. And if you look at where the Tories are blotted, I've looked at the figures just before coming on air just now
12:01
You look at where they lost votes in 2024, two years ago, overwhelmingly to reform
12:07
If you look at where they've lost votes since two years ago, more to reform by far than any other party
12:13
That's where their lost voters mainly are. And that's what they need to do to win this battle against reform
12:22
They need to get those voters back that they lost to reform. They'd have to wait, I think, to another parliament to take the centre votes back from the Liberal Democrats or from Labour
12:33
And very interesting, they do feel hemmed in, in a sense, by reform
12:37
Is it a further problem for them that in many cases up and down the country, they're fighting for exactly the same seats as reform as well
12:45
That's right. Here's a bit of good news for the Conservatives. The EU did a very tactical voting exercise a couple of weeks ago One of the things they showed is not only that the liberals and the greens would vote Labour in order to keep out to the Tories or reform
13:04
They found a lot of liberal Democrats, a lot of Greens and a lot of Labour supporters would switch to the Conservatives if they were living in a Conservative versus Reform constituency
13:15
And the Conservatives could win a few dozen extra seats because of the ambition of lots and lots of voters to defeat reform
13:26
That's probably their best hope of beating the odds and getting perhaps 160 or 170 MPs rather than maybe 120
13:34
Well, there is a little bouquet of good news for the Conservatives as their conference gets going
13:39
Peter Kellner, thank you very much indeed. Also in Birmingham is our very own political correspondent, Bethany Dawson
13:46
Bethany, thanks for joining us this evening. Can you start by telling us what else is going on
13:50
Apart from the big speech by Andrew Griffith, the Chancellor, I guess the main event of the day
13:55
Yeah, let's start with that. Let's start with that. Well, Andrew Griffith, Shadow Chancellor, as you said, Andrew, as you would expect
14:03
made his economic pitch for the country, focusing on cutting taxes. He said that low taxes would be his North Star if he became Chancellor
14:13
He pledged to end the 60% marginal tax rate. He said he wants to scrap mansion tax and that he wants to scrap some of the bureaucracy that we know within the British state
14:25
including, he said, that would mean demolishing natural England and the Environment Agency
14:31
two bodies that he say mean that planning is something that often gets denied
14:37
So it was go for growth and cut taxes. Now, the thing is, if you compare this conference to last year
14:44
there are a lot more policies and there definitely is more hope
14:48
People are happier. But there's an interesting thing going on with the polls here
14:52
This is all working really well for Conservative leader Kemi Baden-Ock. Her personal polling is very high
14:59
But more in common polling that was being unveiled here at conference today found that only a third of voters who like Kemi Badenok would actually vote for the Conservative Party at the moment
15:11
So she needs to find a way to catch up her own success and make it match with the party
15:18
Now, again, the Conservative Party on stage are indeed acting like they have got to that point
15:24
But one former Conservative advisor has said to me that they find this to be completely premature and hubristic, thinking that this is all too early
15:33
Now, we're going to see more policies delivered from them tomorrow. Tomorrow, it's Defence Day
15:39
Defence Day. And before we get to that, of course, one bit of stardust, I guess, on the podium today in the form of Jeremy Clarkson
15:49
Yes, that was a very exciting moment. A special guest who appeared alongside Shadow Environment Secretary Victoria Atkins
15:56
He was saying, as you kind of expect at Conservative Party conference, indeed from Jeremy Clarkson, that Labour does not understand farmers
16:05
They've failed farmers in the sense that they're not doing enough on bovine TB
16:11
And he said that there's no point in setting up a business in Burnham's Britain
16:16
So he was scathing about the government and backed up the Conservative Party's calls for a better country, a better economy for business
16:25
An unexpected guess, but not an unexpected message, perhaps. Bethany, you said tomorrow's Defence Day. When do we get Kemi Badenok
16:33
We hear Kemi Badenok on Wednesday, so still a little bit of time to go
16:37
It has to be said, this very much, again, as you would expect, is the Kemi show
16:42
But she's been rolled out in a way I haven't seen at a Conservative Party conference before
16:47
When I was coming over to speak to you, Andrew, I actually got stuck. There's a staircase next to me and she descended it hand in hand with her husband
16:55
to crowds of cheering supporters. So they're going for a different scene here
17:01
There's also sort of she's having face time with some of the conservative activists
17:05
She's really trying to boost the spirits of those supporters that have done so much for her
17:10
I'm sure she is having a lovely time in Birmingham anyway. Bethany, thank you so much for joining me
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