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The NHS will “collapse” unless action is taken to fix the social care system across England, Andy Burnham has said, while Kemi Badenoch has urged against tax rises to fund the reforms. Burnham said the NHS will never get back “to good waiting time standards until we fix social care”, and added: “I can’t put a timeline on it right here, right now." The PM is expected to make a speech on adult social care in the coming days as he aims to “run towards problems that have been neglected”, according to a No 10 source. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #andyburnham #uknews #ukpolitics #politics #news #nhs #debate #primeminister #downingstreet #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
It's three minutes after ten. A very good morning indeed to you
0:03
Do you want to play a game? Go on. Shall we play a Monday morning game
0:07
Let's see how long it lasts. But you remember I talked to you last week a bit about optimism
0:13
You have to be optimistic. It doesn't really... I mean, unless your scarf is tied so tightly around your neck
0:19
that you can barely speak, you have to be optimistic, whoever is taking over, because you want what's best for..
0:26
If not what's best for your country, then you want what's best for yourself, really
0:30
So you have to be optimistic about a new prime minister. I remember being optimistic about Rishi Sunak for about three and a half hours
0:37
and then he reappointed Suele Braverman. But a bit of optimism about Andy Burnham
0:43
So every Monday, I'm going to ask you to text me quickly
0:48
and we'll close it down at 10 past 10, so don't message me after 10 past 10
0:53
in about two hours time I'll get a few messages that won't make any sense at all
0:57
they'll just be random numbers appearing in my inbox because people are listening on catch up and didn't realise
1:02
they forgot they were listening on catch up some of the most, what would you call them
1:06
strange, I was looking for a Latin word there but I can't think of one
1:11
it was a bit like non sequitur but not quite some of the most odd, incongruous is a nice word
1:17
messages I get I look at and I think, oh they're listening to two hours ago
1:22
they're listening on catch up. So a mark out of ten. How optimistic
1:26
are you currently feeling about Andy Burnham? I'm still at eight or nine. I'm not going to
1:30
lie to you. I will no doubt rue the day that I dared to dream. Because it is, of course, not the despair that gets you
1:36
We can deal with the despair, but hope. It's the hope that gets you every time
1:42
So I'm going to go for eight, eight or nine, eight and a half. Eight and a half. Eight and a half. Any advance on
1:46
Eight and a half. Eight and a half going once, going to just send me your number now. And what we'll do
1:51
I should probably have checked this with Eleanor before we came on air. Can we do some science
1:56
on this? Can we keep all the numbers? We're just going to pretend, oh, we're just going to lick our finger
2:00
stick it in the air and then announce that the numbers have gone up or down every Monday. So we're at about eight and a half at the moment
2:06
I'm going to keep all your numbers Oh, you're a miserable old soul, Edward
2:09
with a mere five, honestly, there you go Be more Elaine, Elaine's got a nine
2:14
So what are the figures, what is the number? The optimism, what are we going to call it? The Optimism Index
2:20
It's the Andy Burnham, A-B-I-D. Can we come... The Burnham Barometer, BB
2:25
That's good. Well played, Keith. The Burnham Barometer. I want to get optimism in it
2:29
Bob, the Burnham Optimism Barometer. Bob, Bob, Monday morning Bob. We're doing a Bob
2:34
We're having a Bob on a Monday morning. Bob, Bob, Bob, it's up and down. There you go, the Bob
2:38
It's the Bob. It's the Monday morning Bob. I'm going to write that down. Otherwise, as you know, I will forget it
2:43
It's the Burnham Optimism Barometer. And is there any way anyone could add them all up
2:49
and then divide it by the number of people. Surely we can do that, Eleanor, can't we? If this was the BBC, we'd probably have graphs
2:55
If this was the bloody newsagents, they'd have a dedicated producer. If Emily Maitlis had come up with this idea
3:00
they'd be hiring someone now to be in charge of the Burnham Optimism Barometer. But on this show, on this..
3:06
this piddling little show, we'd never get anything. Poor old Keith. He'd have to do it in his lunch hour
3:13
if he wasn't so tuned in with his rights. Up the workers
3:18
So anyway, what is your optimism level? I'm not playing, says Colin
3:24
because I got Danny Dyer's age wrong by about 11 years. Yeah, a lot of us did, actually, Colin
3:29
And don't forget the birthday. We have birthday fun as well, but maybe not every day
3:33
So the Burnham Optimism Barometer is closing in two and a half minutes
3:37
And I'd like you to put the figure, which best describes, that best sums up your Bob
3:44
your Bob Index today, your Burnham Optimism Barometer. You can tell we're moving on to something tricky because I've injected that first five minutes of the show with entirely inappropriate levity and fun
3:56
I mean this. It's a phrase that we come up with things, don't we, quite regularly together on the programme and then we forget about them almost immediately
4:03
but one thing that has stuck in my mind and i hope in yours is the idea of subjects that we all could
4:10
confront encounter come up against about which we know nothing until we know we need to know everything Just think about that for a moment I really think it does some heavy lifting that phrase
4:26
You know nothing about it until you need to know everything. You're aware of it, of course
4:31
you are, because it's talked about a lot. That's why I mentioned children's mental health
4:35
or mental health in general, actually, but particularly children's mental health from a parent's point of view. You've got a vague idea that there's something called CAMS out
4:42
there you presume that you can make a fun call and get some help when you find yourself in incredibly
4:47
dark times there must be somewhere you can turn to and then guess what um there isn't or at least
4:52
it's incredibly hard to access you you suddenly need to know everything you know under the same
4:58
umbrella you'd put eating disorders and things like that things about which you know nothing
5:02
until you suddenly need to know everything tell you what the bob quotient is high the bob quotient
5:10
is high today. I wonder how long that's going to last. Try to remind me, because we'll forget
5:15
every Monday I'll take the temperature of the nation by inviting you to contribute to the Burnham Optimism Barometer
5:22
and the Bob figure. Every Monday we'll track it and we'll see where we're going
5:27
It could go down, it could go up again, but we shall see. Things about which you know nothing
5:34
until you need to know everything. You almost hesitate to... or I'm almost hesitating to describe my own situation on this
5:44
So I've got an elderly mum and then I've got a mother-in-law and my wife's stepfather, very, very, very much part of the family
5:52
And all three of them currently live in their own homes. And you wonder what might be on the horizon
5:58
You wonder what might be in place. Should they no longer be able to look after themselves
6:05
You don't want to jinx anything by saying, I can't quite imagine that happening anytime soon, but you don't know, do you
6:11
And then suddenly, when you find yourself in that moment, you need to know everything about a subject that you maybe thought you had a passing understanding of
6:22
because goodness knows that bloke on LBC, whether it's me or Nick or... Obviously, Sheila's not a bloke, but you've heard it on your favourite radio station several times
6:30
You've been a party to the conversations. You maybe tune it out a little bit, because it's not immediately relevant to you
6:36
but um just yeah if you go into a home I think you might have to sell your house at some point
6:44
yeah it's all okay and then boom mum can't look after herself anymore
6:49
granddad needs to go into a home that dread phrase what's going to happen
6:54
how are you going to pay for it how much is it going to cost I am going to make some
6:58
admissions to you I'm going to make some confessions to you I still don't really understand a lot of it
7:04
I can't remember, for example, why Theresa May's proposals blew up in her face so damagingly
7:14
I really can't remember why. I think that there was something about a threshold which is currently £23,500
7:21
So if you've got assets worth in excess of £23,500, I think you will be required to sell them
7:29
You will be compelled to sell them, i.e. forced. you will have to sell them to pay for your social care
7:36
to pay for your fees if you go into a home. And Theresa May was going to raise it to £100,000
7:42
and she was going to break... You see, I mean, I do this for a living, but I don't need to know everything about it
7:47
So at the moment I'm pretty close to knowing nothing. And forewarned is, of course, forearmed
7:55
I think if I felt a little bit closer to the possibility
7:59
I hope I would now be paying more attention. I hope I would now be digging into things more
8:05
Did you know that Keir Starmer had a go at addressing this
8:11
I've got the figure, I don't know why, I've got the figure of £83,000 in my head
8:15
So I've got £100,000 next to Theresa May's face and I've got £83,000 next to Keir Starmer's
8:23
When Andy Burnham was Health Secretary in 2009, he did actually propose a universal system of social care
8:32
and he did pursue the idea of a compulsory levy to fund it Of course the government didn really survive for long enough for it to be more examined But there was an idea of deferring the payment until after people had died
8:46
which, of course, led the Tories to brand it a death tax. I presume that some people are paying millions of pounds
8:54
hundreds of thousands of pounds for social care. You sell the house and every penny ends up going on the social care costs
9:01
while as other people are paying nothing because they don't need it
9:05
Imagine if the rest of the NHS worked like that. Imagine if, God forbid
9:12
you got cancer and your neighbour didn't and you had to sell your house to treat your cancer
9:17
You had to find the money to pay your medical bills. Social care, not technically a medical bill
9:23
but it might as well be. We can agree on that, I think. It's probably a historical disaster
9:28
that the two have been separated. Imagine if it was everything else
9:33
Imagine if you broke your leg. You know how fascinated I am by the notion we talked..
9:39
Why did we talk about it last week? The amount of money. Oh, because of the research into poverty
9:45
and this bizarre sort of brain gristle that some people have that prevents them from understanding
9:52
that you can actually run out of money. Working, functioning adults and non-working, functioning adults
9:58
can run out of money. They can run out of money before they run out a month. And I'm always interested, happily these days
10:06
in a largely academic sense, by what would be enough to really, really knock you off the rails
10:13
to really knock you off your feet. I don't know why I often reach for a broken boiler, because come the winter you really need a boiler
10:19
you really need heating in your house, but you also need to find a few grand in order to get a new one
10:23
and you have not got a few grand. You've got nowhere to go for it
10:27
Imagine if that was medicine. you know it's medieval right well it's not it's probably just 19th century you've got to find the
10:35
money to pay the sore bones as doctors used to be called you break your leg what you're going to do
10:40
you've got to find the money to get it set otherwise you're going to be um you're going to be damaged
10:46
for life what any other area of of of care health care any other area of health care listen i
10:54
I appreciate you can pay money to get better treatment or a shorter weight
10:59
but you can never be so poor that you're not going to get any treatment at all
11:05
And so it is with social care. If you're really poor, the state will pay for it
11:09
But if you've got £23,500 in assets, you're paying for it yourself
11:17
So one of the reasons why it's controversial, it's quite hard to get your head around this stuff
11:22
because why is it so controversial? because one of the reasons is that if they were to introduce
11:29
well, at the moment, it's almost as if you get penalised for having money
11:36
And that, of course, is anathema to anybody, even remotely right-wing. You know, this is outrageous
11:42
You hear it a lot during the private education debates, don't you? I've worked bloody hard to send my child to private school
11:47
Why on earth should I have to pay VAT on my school fees? Which, of course, implicitly suggests that 90% of the country
11:53
who are never going to have enough cash to send their children to private school are somehow not working as hard as Chummo on line two
12:01
which is a ludicrous suggestion, but one that you have to sustain to if you want to cling to the notion that you were born 3-0 up
12:07
but somehow scored a hat-trick in life. So, you know, if you get to the end of your life
12:12
and you haven't got enough assets to qualify for a compulsory purchase of your home
12:17
you could have been working as a police officer or a nurse, you could have been in the army, you could have been down a mine back in the day
12:23
The idea that it means that you have not worked as hard as the people who've got assets is ridiculous
12:28
Similarly, you could have been really careful with very little income, and you end up with very little to show for it at the end of your life
12:36
So the person over there say, well, I've been really careful, I've gone without. There will always be some people who are, if you like, swinging the lead
12:44
or the exceptions that prove the rule. You've lived a life of fecklessness and debauchery
12:51
and you get to the end of your days and you can look after yourself you haven got a pot to pee in and therefore the state will step in and look after you And that not fair because he was going out all the time when we were kids and he had a nice car and he crashed it
13:06
Do you see what I mean? These, what you might call anecdotal anomalies
13:10
are always going to plague social policy. But I think we should probably pay a little bit less attention to them
13:17
than some of the media commentators and right-wing politicians tell us to
13:20
So you've got money and you have to pay. You have to give it to the carers
13:28
You have to give it to the businesses, the people, the individuals, the companies, the homes that are looking after your elderly
13:34
So there's a little bit of, well, there's quite a lot of politics there, but there's also quite a lot of confusion
13:40
I don't necessarily want to have a heated debate today. I just want to know what happened to you
13:49
That's all. I just, because the problem with subjects about which you know nothing until you need to know everything
13:56
is that the people who know everything have forgotten what it's like to know nothing so you're up to your ears in this
14:01
you can't believe that mum's house is, that the money in the bank from the sale of mum's house
14:06
is just going down every month by £10,000, £2,000, whatever it is
14:10
you can't quite believe that there are people who know nothing about it
14:15
but you used to be someone who knew nothing about this and now you're someone who knows everything
14:19
and that journey somehow robs you of the memory of what it was like to know nothing
14:24
Some people won't have a clue until it's pretty much the moment to go looking for a care home for mum
14:30
They won't have a clue about the fact that they're going to have to sell mum's..
14:33
They have a vague knowledge in the back of their mind, but they're going to have to sell mum's house
14:39
Now, I think, and again, I make no apologies on this occasion
14:43
for being entirely in your hands when it comes to knowledge and information
14:47
because nobody's perfect. I can't have a proper grasp and a deep understanding of every single subject that we talk about
14:53
In some ways, it's good, because it hopefully will encourage you to share your insights
14:57
So the dementia tax was what did for Theresa May. Social care funding essentially saw a massive lead in the opinion polls dissipate after she called an early general election
15:08
to the point where she had to give a million pounds to the DUP to keep a functioning majority in the House of Commons
15:14
And Starmer flirted with it, I think, and backed down, as Starmer was wont to do
15:20
And Andy Burnham's gone all in, early doors, first big interview, NHS will collapse without social care reform
15:28
Nobody's got a clue what the social care reform would look like. But let's talk about what is in need of reform
15:34
What happens? That's it. And I know you're thinking, well, hang on, James must know what
15:39
I don't. I don't know. And even if I did know, there'll be hundreds of thousands of people listening to this programme
15:44
We haven't got a clue. What happens? What actually happens? Make my eyes water
15:49
Make me wince. Tell me that you have spent on... Because some people have spent nothing
15:54
and that's why it's such a political hot potato. Why on earth should I pay anything
16:00
when I am not going to need any of the benefits or any of the care that is being paid for by that tax or by that levy
16:08
Answer, same reason you pay for the NHS. Some people might go through their entire lives
16:13
without having recourse to the NHS, without ever popping up in A&E
16:18
barely going to your doctors except to get your jabs before you go on holiday. Some people might live lives of untrammeled healthiness
16:24
but they still pay the same amount for the NHS as people who are in and out like a butcher's elbow
16:29
I want you to tell me what happens. What actually happens? Shock me? Amaze me? Delight me? Amuse me
16:37
What actually happens when social care suddenly becomes the thing about which you knew nothing
16:43
and today you need to know everything. What did you discover? What do you wish is the key question
16:50
It was a billion quits you gave the DEP, not a million, my apologies. There you go. What's a zero between friends
16:56
What do you wish you'd known? That's all. What do you wish you'd known about an ordinary person's relationship
17:04
with the social care system in this country? And if you want to then have a crack at how it might be successfully reformed, feel free
17:10
But before we can do that, what do you wish you had known
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