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Lewis Goodall joins Shelagh Fogarty to go over Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election against Reform's Robert Kenyon. They go over how Burnham built up his power base away from Westminster, and almost 'in spite of it'. Later they speculate on what he will do next and when he will launch his leadership challenge. Lewis has nailed his colours to the mast, calling Burnham 'the far superior politician', and that 'only a Burnham-led Labour party can lead Labour to victory against Reform'. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #andyburnham #makerfield #LBC #byelection #ukpolitics #shelaghfogarty #lewisgoodall #keirstarmer #labour LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
She'll never guess what's happened, Lewis
0:01
Go on. Andy's won Makerfield. No way. Yep. Did he? Andy Burnham won the Makerfield
0:06
And I thought the eight hours last night on LBC was just some fever dream. It's a fever dream
0:10
You never did it. Oh, thank goodness. Wake me up. Is he, now you're awake, is he Prime Minister material
0:16
Well, yeah. I mean, by definition of the fact that it's clear, I think, that more and more that he will have the confidence of the Parliamentary Labour Party
0:22
So by definition, he'll be Prime Minister material. And look, I think something interesting is happening in our constitution sheet in a way
0:27
which is that if he does become Prime Minister, he will be the second mayor in quite short order to have become Prime Minister
0:35
And it's an interesting development that we've had because, of course, throughout virtually all of our democratic history
0:42
it's been the case that if you wanted to have a political career
0:46
and reach the top of national politics, you needed to build a power base in Parliament
0:50
That was the only way of doing it. There were some senior politicians who'd had some history of local government
0:54
Herbert Morrison, Joseph Chamberlain, but generally speaking, few and far between. What we've developed with the mayoral system
1:01
courtesy of George Osborne, of course, who introduced them, is almost an American-style possibility
1:07
of building up a power base away from Westminster, and not just building it up away from it
1:12
but in spite of, against Westminster, which is very common in American politics
1:16
you get American governors and so on, building up a power base in the States, we're going to go and take on Washington
1:21
Unusual within the British context, but Andy Burnham looks set to be the second one
1:25
following Boris Johnson to have done so or to do so. What's been on your mind since the win
1:29
What's been... A bit of melatonin, mainly. A bit of melatonin's been on the mind
1:36
Well, look, I think that is very clear. What is going to play out over the weekend
1:41
well, basically, Sheila, it is a battle of nerves and a battle of wills between two men
1:45
and that's Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham. Both are circling the other. Neither want to give in
1:52
Burnham, it is clear, would much prefer to come to some sort of accommodation with Starmer
1:57
Gentleman's Agreement. A gentleman's agreement, a transfer, an orderly transfer of power
2:01
Probably, we're told, to happen by September, which would also give Burnham some time to actually work out
2:06
what the hell he's going to do and what actually Manchesterism, translated to Westminsterism, can mean
2:12
It would give him an opportunity as well to get to know the Parliamentary Labour Party. That's part of the thing about when you've been a mayor and away for ten years
2:18
He only knows about a quarter of the PLP. He doesn't know them, he doesn't really know them
2:22
Would he have had time recently to be fixing that? I'm sure he will have had some conversations
2:26
but obviously he's been taken up with Makerfield. I mean, the whole of the PLP has ascended on Makerfield
2:31
which might have helped a bit, but it will give him an opportunity. You can see why that would be appealing to him
2:36
But Keir Starmer, and I'm told that what we're hearing is not synthetic
2:40
I'm told at the highest levels that this is not artificial. I'm told that Keir Starmer is genuinely livid
2:45
He's genuinely furious. He believes sincerely that the mandate is his. and I can understand why he would come to this conclusion
2:53
that he slogged his guts out for six, seven years to get the Labour Party back into government
2:57
to win that majority and finds it offensive that Andy Burnham should choose
3:03
to try and use up that by coming in as the king over the water
3:07
and take that away from him. The problem with that, of course, Sheila, is that the truth is in our system
3:12
the Prime Minister doesn't enjoy a mandate. The Labour Party enjoys a mandate
3:16
And it also shows that that position and I think you absolutely right that that his position shows that he doesn understand party politics and Westminster politics Well she probably one of the reasons he got into the mess that he has Look I mean the truth is is that maybe I can put it in this way
3:32
to use a metaphor that would come more easily to the Prime Minister than to me
3:38
But as tough as it is, my understanding in football, in World Cup football, is that if you're not performing on the pitch, you get subbed
3:45
And that is what is happening, in effect, to Keir Starmer. It doesn't matter how brilliant you've been in the past
3:49
It doesn't matter if you've scored victories in the past and scored goals in the past
3:53
Ultimately, if you're not performing, you will get subbed. And that is what the parliamentary Labour Party is doing
3:59
Look, I think a lot of Labour MPs will be the first to say that they are unclear in substantive terms what Andy Burnham would do differently
4:08
What would his policies be that are different? Is he just Starmerism with a northern brogue and a smile on his face and a twinkle in his eye
4:16
Maybe that's enough. Maybe it is. either way what Labour MPs are also sure about
4:21
is that if they keep going in the way that they're going they're dead. That politically speaking
4:26
they're at the end of the road. So their conundrum and it's not really a conundrum
4:30
their choice for a lot of Labour MPs is do we keep going down this road
4:35
towards certain political death as they see it the Prime Minister would disagree or do we roll the dice
4:39
and at least give ourselves the hope and let's just be clear Sheila about what happened last night
4:44
if it had been the case which a lot of people I have to say myself
4:47
including thought it might be, that Burnham won, but he won modestly
4:52
Maybe even that Restore had been the difference between reform and him winning
4:57
Number 10, we're planning to say, and you can already hear glimmers of it in the way the Prime Minister's talked about it today
5:03
that, look, it's a good victory, but perhaps it's a bit of a fluke. It's not as convincing as it might have been
5:08
It's about his Manchester profile. Has this guy been overstated a little bit? Has he been overwritten
5:13
They can't say that now. Because the scale of the victory is so above expectation
5:19
And it wasn't just about expectation management. I think even some of the Burden people were surprised just how big the majority is
5:25
Bear in mind, we have got two reformers spinning all over the place this morning saying
5:30
oh, this was always natural Labour territory. It's always been a Labour seat. No, no, no, no
5:34
This is the 13th reform target seat. It needed but a modest political wind to move it over to the reform column
5:43
It is exactly the sort of place that culturally, philosophically, politically has been moving away from the Labour Party for a long time
5:51
And bear in mind what happened last night. Just six weeks ago, the Labour Party got battered in this very constituency
5:59
They barely got 25% of the vote in the council wards they were contesting
6:03
Last night, Burnham flipped that, and instead he's getting over 50% of the vote, and Reformer getting battered
6:08
A 23-point swing to the Labour Party. And for Burnham, he can say, with at least some credibility this afternoon
6:16
that that is proof of concept that only a Burnham-led Labour Party can lead Labour to victory against reform
6:22
Let me tell you, the Times is reporting that Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, and Ed Miliband, the net zero man, has told Keir Starmer to set out a timeline for his departure
6:34
Other cabinet ministers will follow suit this afternoon. That's the beginning? Look, what is clear, Burnham, as when I say they're circling each other
6:45
Burnham clearly would prefer to avoid the toxin of a messy and vituperative leadership contest that involves Keir Starmer There is a fear that if the Labour Party goes down that route
6:57
that it might be that the toxin that is infused into the Labour Party bloodstream is so awful that it will be hard for Burnham to recover
7:05
So what is he going to do? He knows, he hopes, I think, never even to have to have that conversation with Keir Starmer
7:11
He knows that there are Labour cabinet ministers, Ed Miliband being one, Shabana Mahmoud being another
7:16
but there will be others as well who will be going to the Prime Minister this weekend, and we're told the Prime Minister has already been ringing around for support
7:22
saying, you need to set out a timetable. The question is, and we can't know the answer to this
7:27
only the Prime Minister will know the answer to this, and he might not even know yet. The question is, how willing is Starmer to not just face Andy Burnham down
7:37
but to face his own cabinet or elements of his own cabinet down? Does he conclude that he still might have enough support within the cabinet to weather this and to take it to the Labour Party membership
7:49
Now, that will be a huge risk because all of the polling seems to indicate that he wouldn't stand much of a chance
7:54
But we also know that Starmer is a risk taker. We know he has a tremendous level of self-belief
8:00
We know he has a tremendous level of stubbornness on occasion. And it might just be that he has convinced himself, and I'm sure in his own mind this is true
8:08
he has convinced himself that Burnham is an interloper, that he has no plan, that he has no credibility
8:13
that his country needs him on the world stage. These are the sorts of stories that prime ministers tell themselves
8:18
But that doesn't solve the problem of his backbenchers and that behemoth behind him that is increasingly falling away
8:23
A hundred Labour MPs have come out and called for Keir Starmer to set out a timeline. That's the equivalent to just under one in four Labour MPs
8:31
Five more have come out today and that tally is expected to get bigger
8:34
One of the problems we've got in this, Sheila, is that if this were the Conservative Party
8:38
it would be a bit more straightforward. Because the Conservative Party, of course, we lived through this in the Brexit years
8:43
they have their mechanism where if a certain percentage of the party writes the chairman of the 1922 committee
8:52
then there is a straight-up motion of no confidence in the leader. Not a contest, but a motion of no confidence
8:57
Now, if the Labour Party had a similar mechanism, I think Starmer, we would be having a very different conversation
9:02
I think he would already be gone. But what the Labour Party has, it has no... They have membership. If there's no motion of no confidence in the leader
9:08
it automatically becomes a contest in which the leader is automatically on the ballot
9:13
That really strengthens the position of the incumbent Labour leader because if there was just a straight up and down
9:18
do you have confidence in Keir Starmer or not? I think Starmer would probably lose right now
9:22
But because there is a mechanism, the mechanism automatically translates to a contest
9:27
in which he is automatically on the ballot, that gives him a bit of extra power
9:31
because he's able to say, well, you know, if you challenge me, I'll take this to the membership
9:36
So it gives him extra leverage, in a way, with the PLP and with Durham. Are there plans in the Labour Party to bring it back to just the PLP
9:42
having the vote on the leadership? There's no current plans to do so now. I mean, that would obviously make things a lot more straightforward
9:47
Look, if you go back to... This is something both the Conservative and Labour parties have done
9:51
In the past 20 or 30 years, slightly more in the case of the Labour Party, ever since the early 1980s
9:55
they've prioritised internal party democracy, in a way, rather than it used to be the case
10:00
As you say, Shirley, you know, you go back to the... We're at the 50th anniversary of it this year
10:04
the 1976 hate to bring Harold Wilson up again I love it when Harold Wilson
10:09
I can't get through a conversation with you without mentioning Harold Wilson when Harold Wilson decided to step down in 1976 surprised absolutely everybody when he decided to stand down and surprise everybody in 1976 there was a
10:23
leadership election an absolute election by the way which involved labor titans you know jim
10:27
callaghan roy jenkins dennis healy tony bent um and they all slugged it out took about 10 days
10:33
because it was just the mps deciding amongst themselves likewise in 1990 when margaret thatcher
10:37
gave way to John Major. There was a week. She resigned on the
10:41
22nd of November 1990. I think she was gone by the end of the month. I don't even think it
10:45
stretched into December. John Major had replaced and that's because at that time it
10:49
was just MPs who decided. But now, when you have to involve
10:53
the wider membership, there are logistical questions. There are forms to be printed and ballots to
10:59
be sent out and hustings to be had. So it means that the whole process
11:03
of choosing a Prime Minister when they're in opposition, it doesn't matter so much
11:07
But when it's a party of government, the whole thing is slowed enormously
11:11
And I think it does empower the leader because obviously a lot of MPs want to avoid that
11:16
I think, though, it is, again, it's not just the PLP and the backbenchers
11:21
but loads of party members will be looking at this fact, I think, in Andy Burnham's win
11:26
He managed to convince four out of five Labour voters from the last election
11:31
who had drifted away to parties like reform, mostly reform, to come back to vote for him in Makerfield
11:38
If that could be replicated on a national level, that's a second term, isn't it
11:43
It is. I mean, it's a big if, because, of course, what Burnham, if he becomes Prime Minister, will not be able to do
11:46
He ran this, as we know, as a sort of quasi-independent candidate. And he won't be able to do that if he becomes Labour Party leader
11:51
because he will be the Labour brand. It's much harder for him
11:55
He will have to... What has made up Brand Burnham over the last 10 years? Well, one is, I'm Mr Outsider, I'm up here, not in Westminster
12:02
Harder to do when you're actually in Westminster. In number 10. And he's been King of the North
12:07
Well, you can't be King of the North when you're the Prime Minister. You can't be a sectional politician
12:10
It's important to say he never called himself. I know, I know, but I'm just using it as shorthand
12:14
I call you the Queen of LBC, but it doesn't mean that that is your official title. I know that is true
12:18
But, you know, what I'm saying is that the sort of key components which have made up his brand have got to evolve
12:24
Now, I think he's quite a supple politician, and I think he will be able, or should be able to do that
12:30
What the Labour Party is thinking about today, Sheila, is whether they like Burnham or not
12:33
they've come to the conclusion, and this is, again, I can understand this will be tough for the Prime Minister to hear
12:38
but most of his colleagues, or a lot of his colleagues, have come to the conclusion that Andy Burnham, frankly
12:42
is a superior politician to Keir Starmer, in the sense that he has more political range
12:46
He knows how to do it. He has an ability to connect in a way that, frankly
12:50
Keir Starmer, his stage in life and his stage in his political career, is not going to be able to do or change
12:55
I also think Andy Burnham is brave. I think he's got... Well, they're showing some guts doing this, that's for sure
13:00
But this, Hillsborough, my two standout examples, I think he's brave. I mean, clearly, as you said earlier, so does Keir Starmer
13:06
He has guts as well, and he's had challenges in life too. So let's see what happens
13:10
It feels like it started to happen, though, with those warnings from Shabana Mahmood, doesn't it
13:15
And from... I think, as Boris Johnson said, the herd is moving. The herd is moving
13:20
Thank you very much, Lewis. Always a pleasure. Lewis Goodall, host of the News Agents podcast
13:24
Don't forget the latest episode drops a five today. Congratulations on your Podcast of the Year award
13:28
Well, thank you very much. And can we just also send out a big congratulations to Alistair and Rory for their highly commended
13:34
in the same category. Always tough to be runner-up, as Rob Kenyon will tell you
13:37
but nonetheless... Meow, it's a minute past three
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