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Labour now lead Reform in a new poll thanks to the ‘Burnham bounce’. It is the first time Labour has lead the polls since March 2025. Lewis Goodall joins Aasmah Mir to discuss how Andy Burnham's opponents might respond. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #lewisgoodall #aasmahmir #debate #labour #reform #conservatives #ukpolitics #politics #uknews #news #polls #andyburnham #nigelfarage #kemibadenoch #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Right, we're going to talk to Lewis Goodall now, who is presenter of Sundays with Lewis Goodall on LBC and co-host of Global's podcast, The News Agents
0:08
And we are talking about a couple of things, including Labour leading the polls for the first time since March 2025
0:14
Have you got the numbers for us? Indeed, Asma, yes. This is, of course, as we always say, just one poll, but nonetheless, given that it's the end of July, it's certainly getting a lot of interest
0:21
Because obviously also, as well, it's the first major poll, over 2,000 people, I think, being done since Andy Burnham took office
0:27
and Labour now on 28 points. That's up four. Reform down two on 24
0:32
So it's a Labour lead of plus four. And the Conservatives as well only just behind on 22
0:37
Lib Dems on 12. Green on eight. Talk about the Greens maybe a little bit separately
0:41
But as you say, this is their first lead Labour since March 2025 and the highest share of leads
0:47
since November 2024. And as we say, it's just one poll and we could be enjoying
0:52
a little bit or Burnham could be enjoying a bit of a burn and bounce and a honeymoon
0:56
and it could easily reverse. But it is notable, I think, that it is part of a wider trend
1:01
Reform have come down from their sort of peak of around 30% in the polls
1:06
which they had consistently. They were very fond of saying that they had led in 150 polls, 200 polls, 250 polls, 400 polls, etc., etc
1:13
And this will be exactly, for your median Labour MP, this will be, particularly if it is repeated and sustained
1:21
they will consider vindication that they have replaced a prime minister who they considered and a judge to have little political skill with someone who has considerably more and that is already paying some dividend Now of course whether it will sustain I think is obviously an open question
1:37
I think what we can certainly say in the first week at least of the new Burnham administration is that he has played the attention economy like a fiddle
1:48
He has, to use another kind of American political reference, he's done something that Donald Trump has been very good at
1:53
He's flooded the zone. You know, he has been everywhere, anywhere, all at once
1:57
He has been keen to give a sense of kinetic energy that he's moving forward and forward and forward
2:02
And I think we're going to continue to see that over the course of the summer. And they will hope, therefore
2:07
that they will be able to build up a narrative going into the party conference season that he has made a serious start
2:12
in turning around the Labour Party's fortunes. Of course, one of the things that will happen
2:17
if that does take place, of course, is that the Crest speculation about an early general election
2:21
will just get louder and louder and louder. Can you remember, it wasn't that long ago
2:26
but I'm sorry to put you on the spot, can you remember roughly how long the Keir Starmer bounce
2:32
if there was a bounce, lasted? I mean, there really wasn't one. I mean, unfortunately, it was less of a sort of proper honeymoon
2:39
than a sort of, you know, day and a half in Bognor. No offence to Bognor. And it just, it sort of almost dissipated
2:46
It even dissipated actually going up to the polls. And if you remember, to polling day itself
2:50
I mean, if you remember at one point, at the start of the general election campaign, and Labour were often polling in sort of the high 40s
2:54
In the end of course only getting about 34 to 35 of the vote It was just because the Conservative vote was so depressed and suppressed that it meant that Labour won so big So I mean there was a poll out the other day that showed actually Andy Burnham approval was on plus 13
3:08
Now, that is higher than Keir Starmer's ever was at plus 11 at his absolute peak
3:12
So, look, you can't get too excited about these things. These are just one poll at the start of his premiership
3:18
But clearly, number 10, I think, are pleased with how the first week went. And just in parentheses as well, I mean, I think what this does show as well
3:24
It is partly about Labour gaining a bit of strength back. It's partly about increased reform frailty
3:29
Now, if you speak to reform people, what they'll say is, look, we are still nippant up with Labour in most polls
3:34
or ahead in most polls, behind in this one, and they think this is Andy Burnham's peak
3:38
and that therefore they will be in a position when he starts to lose popularity, when he starts to run out of steam to regain the momentum
3:45
Of course, in order to do that, Farage's got to get back into Parliament and they've got to try and find a way over the course of the summer
3:50
while that by-election is going on, which is going to absorb a lot of attention, they've got to find a way of trying to get back into the political conversation
3:56
because right now, something that really struck me about the interview that Andy Burnham did at the weekend with the BBC
4:00
but also over the course of the last week I don't think I've barely heard him mention his opponents once
4:05
I don't think I've heard him speak about Faraj I don't think I've heard him speak about Badenock I don't think I've heard him speak about other political parties
4:11
he's just been talking about what he himself is doing which I think is, I think, a sign of his political confidence at the moment
4:18
What did you want to say about the Greens? Well I was just going to say just how rapid their fall has been in not much time at all If we go back to the local elections which of course was a sort of high watermark for them you know some polls they were polling actually ahead of Labour certainly nip and tuck with Labour they were on you know 16 17 18 down in this poll now at 8
4:40
And I think what it reminds us with both reform and green is that if you are an insurgent in
4:45
politics, the very forces that can propel you in politics, you are, are the things that can also
4:52
very very quickly the tide can come in and wash you away which is that what you are reliant upon
4:58
is a sense of momentum a sense of vibes a sense of forward progress and as soon as that stops as
5:04
stops as soon as the tap is turned off then you can start to fall back extremely quickly and i
5:10
think this is one of the things that you know in terms of labor and conservatives one of the things
5:14
i think has occasionally been overdone in the sense of predicting their demise you know these
5:18
our parties with very long established roots in this country first past the post still gives
5:23
tremendous incentive to voters to corral behind the main force on either the left or the right
5:29
and there is a reason why we have only had one of the big parties in the last century
5:33
be displaced and replaced by another one so it's not to say that this period of fragmented politics
5:39
is over by any means this is still historically speaking low numbers for both labor and and the
5:44
Conservatives, but nonetheless interesting what the overall trend has been in recent months
5:48
which has been away from these insurgent forces and back to some extent towards the established
5:53
parties. Okay, Lewis, thank you. That's Lewis Goodall, he's host of the News Agents podcast
5:57
of course. And don't forget, latest episode dropping at five o'clock today
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