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'How did we get here?' Despite falling immigration figures, Reform UK continues to gain support while traditional Labour voters drift toward the Greens. James O’Brien unpacks how Labour’s compromises, including a tougher stance on immigration, has been a miscalculation. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #labour #LBC #keirstarmer #ukpolitics #uknews #debate #farage #nigelfarage #polanski #news LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
What interests me is what Labour have done to get to this point
0:05
And what they have done is try to appeal to the historic Labour voter
0:11
already wobbly because we saw in 2016 and 2019 that they were not immune to voting against their own interests
0:20
the historic Labour voter who was being tempted towards reform. And the calculation was, I think correctly
0:29
although this is something else that's changing at the moment, the calculation was that they wanted the government
0:35
to be much tougher on immigration. Here is a question I've never asked you before
0:43
What's the difference between immigration and immigrants? What's the difference between being tough on immigration
0:51
and being tough on immigrants? Because I think it's really hard to answer that question
0:58
and Labour have failed because they have responded to a belief that they need to appeal to this constituency of voters
1:04
by being tougher on immigration. And they have been. They've also allowed it in some of their rhetoric and some of their policies
1:12
to elide into being horrible to immigrants, either potential or actual. And the calculation was that by becoming a party
1:24
that presented itself as being anti-immigration, and they might dispute that and claim that we're in favour of this type but not that type
1:35
but the general perception and the general intention was that they would portray themselves as being anti-immigration
1:41
and that that would persuade traditional, historical, potential voters swallowing the snake oil that Farage has been serving up for his entire life
1:53
That would persuade them back into the fold. It was a policy, if you like, of appeasement
1:59
And the reason why I asked you a year ago who it was aimed at
2:03
was because I wasn't sure how that was going to work. Who are these people that are not engaging in tribal or xenophobic
2:11
or atavistic prejudice, who are not being encouraged to hate everybody brown
2:16
but have a very specific idea of exactly which beneficiaries of our immigration policy they have a problem with and which ones they supremely comfortable with But Keir Starmer has decided and when
2:28
he appointed Shabana Mahmood as Home Secretary, he doubled down on this, that the best thing
2:33
to do was to become an anti-immigration party. And on one level it has worked, that the numbers
2:41
are falling at a rate of knots that I don't think we've ever seen before. From a high
2:46
start. But how many times did you hear Farage mention immigration today? Have you noticed that
2:52
yet? How many times did you hear Farage mention immigration today? What's going on there, do you
2:59
think? Well, I've told you previously is that he is going to have to acknowledge at some point that
3:05
that particular dead horse has been flogged beyond any useful purpose. So if you are currently on
3:14
welfare particularly a sickness or a disability benefit be afraid be very afraid if you're between
3:20
jobs be afraid be very afraid you are the new immigrant you are the new small boat passenger
3:25
just just this is an opinion this isn't counting but just mark my words just watch if you haven't
3:31
already felt the heat of that hatred you're about to um people with blue badges being abused in uh
3:38
supermarket car parks disabled people having people bang on their door to say I've seen you walking
3:46
it's coming it always follows you unleash hatred you kind of have to find a new target
3:53
when the old one disappears so Labour became an anti-immigration party and they delivered huge drops in immigration
3:59
but the man the politician who is defined by his hatred of immigrants
4:04
is having an absolute cakewalk He's having an... What's the opposite of a nightmare
4:11
He's having a dream. The man who is defined by his hatred of immigration
4:15
is being carried shoulder high through the streets of Havering. So it's failed completely
4:22
Labour have delivered what anti-immigration voters want, and they continue to deliver it
4:27
and anti-immigration voters have not responded at all. And then the second bit of this
4:36
which is harder to count at the moment, but the opinion polls certainly give us an indication and an insight The Greens are hoovering up the kind of people who are also traditional Labour voters albeit possibly from a different socioeconomic class or educational
4:53
background. The Greens are hoovering up voters who are repulsed by Labour becoming an anti-immigrant
5:00
not anti-immigration, but an anti-immigrant party. So, Nigel Farage is nothing if not
5:07
xenophobic, racist, whatever word you prefer. The days of pretending that people will be repelled by
5:14
him when they fully understand that are over. People are not repelled by it. They are lapping
5:18
it up. It's a tragedy, but it's a tragedy that has been incubated and delivered by the media
5:23
in this country in large part and by the ancient appeal of hatreds of every kind. Because remember
5:30
he's certainly not off the hook for anti-Semitism, albeit that he's currently pretending to be a
5:34
champion of the Jewish people. His Islamophobia is visible from space. His party's full of people
5:40
that don't even like seeing black faces on television. The racism is endemic, it's absolutely
5:44
crystal clear, and it's popular. I hope that doesn't come as a heartbreaking shock to you
5:50
I speak with white privilege, but it's popular. The racism is popular. The respectable face of
5:57
racism is the pretense that I have legitimate concerns about immigration, and Keir Starmer
6:01
decided to hoover up those votes. He's completely failed. He hasn't hoovered up one of them
6:07
And yet anti-immigrant rhetoric has risen just as immigration figures have plummeted
6:13
And all of the people in the middle, all of the people who are traditional Labour voters
6:18
and repulsed by racism, they're now increasingly disillusioned with or even repulsed by Keir Starmer's Labour government
6:26
So they're the ones that are moving to the Greens. So Labour have bet the House
6:30
on holding on to their core vote from, if you like, the educated voter
6:37
And this isn't snobbery or condescension. This is sophology. This is measured
6:41
You know, you look at the areas where education is high and you look at support for Brexit or support for immigration
6:47
and you look at the areas where education is low and you look at those things and you get very different messages
6:53
So Labour have bet the House on retaining their core support among the educated professional
7:00
while gaining the support or retaining the support of the less educated worker by becoming anti and anti
7:13
And they have delivered that and somehow achieved neither of the goals that they set themselves
7:19
They have not hung on to the core voter, although they're doing a little bit better in cities than some of the worst predictions expected
7:26
They have not successfully held on to the core voter who is repulsed by racism
7:30
and they have not managed to seduce any of the voters who may or may not be racist
7:35
but are certainly animated by all of the pictures they see and the posts that they read
7:40
and the politicians that they listen to insisting that all of their problems have been caused by Johnny Foreigner come lately
7:47
Why? Why has this Labour calculation failed so completely? 03456060973 That's what I want you to tell me
7:58
I mean, you can challenge the ysis if you want, but you better have got up early
8:02
because I can't currently see any flaws in it at all. They thought they'd hold on to this voter
8:07
and they thought they'd be able to hoover up this voter by appeasing the anti-immigrant or the racist rhetoric
8:16
that has dominated our discourse now for the best part of 10 years. And it has failed miserably
8:21
despite measurably and visibly ramping up the rhetoric and reducing the numbers
8:28
I said to you a year ago, I think they could bring it down to zero and it wouldn't move the needle
8:34
It wouldn't change anything. I don't think I had foreseen a year ago Farage pivoting towards attacking the disabled or attacking the sick
8:42
or attacking the people who are between jobs and pretending that everybody on any benefit is some sort of con artist
8:48
But it was bound to happen. It would be single mothers next if we hadn't changed so much as a society
8:54
So why? what is it that has what explains Labour's utter failure
9:00
to achieve either of the things that they wanted to achieve why do the people most animated by immigration
9:07
not respond positively to the huge drops in immigration and why have the people
9:15
if you like more clear eyed about immigration started departing the party in their droves
9:23
Why has this particular tactic failed so miserably
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