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Shelagh Fogarty speaks with Lewis Goodall about the potential by-election in Makerfield that could reshape British politics. Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell publicly backs Andy Burnham's bid to return to Westminster, saying she is "sure" he'll be Labour's candidate at a Makerfield by-election. Josh Simons, who currently represents the constituency, has said he'll stand down to make way for Burnham. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #lewisgoodall #lbc #shelaghfogarty #wesstreeting #keirstarmer #starmer #labour #uknews #ukpolitics LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
If you are a resident of Makerfield and you don't much care for politics
0:03
well, I would book an eight-week cruise about now if I were you. I hear you can get some good deals with the way things have been going
0:09
So I would do that because you are going to be, I'm afraid, your slice of Greater Manchester is going to be inundated by the full force
0:17
never mind the media and the journalists and the Vox popping and all of that, but the full party machines of the Labour Party and reform
0:24
and to some extent the others, descending on this small bit of Greater Manchester
0:29
there will not be a door unknocked, there will not be a letterbox untouched
0:34
It is going to be a by-election for the ages, because it is true to say, Sheila, in our game, we often talk up by-elections
0:42
and people often castigate us for saying, come on, it's just a by-election, they come, they go, people vote against the government, and we all move on
0:49
True, fair enough, but there's never been a by-election like this one, and I think there never will be one again
0:52
because in effect, what we will be seeing with this by-election is, in effect, a prime ministerial election
0:58
70,000 or so electors in Makerfield will have the chance to probably choose or veto the next Prime Minister for 70 million of us
1:09
It will be a circus like we've not seen. You compared it yesterday, didn't you, in our conversation to a kind of US presidential primary
1:17
Clearly we don't have that system, but it is like that. And it feels to me, given the, we're going to talk more after two of the kind of implications of a win or a loss for Burnham
1:27
it feels a bit like a kind of general election in a funny way as well
1:32
because it is going to dictate the direction of the country in a way. Well, here's another way in which we never see anything like it, Sheila
1:37
Consider poor old Keir Starmer in Downing Street from whom you can almost feel authority already ebbing away
1:44
For the next eight weeks, I suspect it will be, depends when the writ is moved
1:48
the epicentre of politics is not going to be in Westminster. It's going to be in Greater Manchester
1:53
That will be the centre of our political conversation because it will be so momentous what happens there
1:59
And consider the peculiar position that he himself is in. He is the leader of the Labour Party
2:05
He has been forced into accepting and acquiescing to Burnham standing in this seat
2:10
If he hadn't done so, there would have just been an open civil war in the Labour Party. Lucy Powell made that clear this morning, didn't she
2:14
He would have been removed, yeah. The Cabinet would have turned against him. He knew he had no choice, not something he wanted to do
2:20
So he must now see a by-election, the like of which we've not seen him before, which is where the two principal antagonists in it, the Labour Party and the Reform Party
2:30
are in their own ways saying that a vote for me is a vote to get rid of Keir Starmer
2:35
Because Andy Burnham's political message, he won't say it explicitly, but everyone will know that he will be saying
2:41
look, I'm a sort of counterinsurgency within the Labour Party. I am the force that will depose Keir Starmer
2:49
A vote for me is not so much a vote for this government, but it's a vote for a different sort of Labour Party
2:53
and a different sort of government And reform meanwhile will also be saying a vote for us will be a move to destabilise Keir Starmer and is in effect sending a message to Labour that they cannot toy with you they cannot play their games
3:07
give them the V sign and tell them that they cannot take you for granted
3:11
So, in effect, you will see Keir Starmer being forced, as the leader of the Labour Party
3:16
to oversee the resources and the personnel and the leafleters and the digital campaigns
3:22
all for a campaign that he knows deep down is designed to destroy his premiership
3:28
And I think it's fair to say as well, is it, that there will be no new challenge emerging until after this by-election
3:35
and, depending on the result of it, if Burnham were to have a stonking win
3:39
there would be no subsequent challenger. Look, I think this definitely quells for now
3:45
Wes Streitin is still talking about having the numbers. I find that odd to believe that he would, if he had the numbers
3:50
he would be the first leadership candidate in history who thought he could win an election
3:54
but then would be waiting for someone who could almost certainly beat him to enter the race. So that seems a bit odd. But anyway, I think this definitely quells that for now. And I think
4:02
you know, my instinct is to say that whatever happens in that by-election, Labour win or Labour
4:08
lose, I think it will spell the end for Starmer's government one way or the other. I think if Burnham
4:13
wins, he will be able to say, look, I have won, I've not just won at a time when the Labour
4:20
parties unpopular, he'll be able to say, I've won in a seat on paper where reform should
4:25
be, have it in the bag. It is a classic Red Wall seat. It's not even like Manchester Gorton, where he wants to stand before more inner city, more diversity
4:31
He's very white, heavily Brexit voting, proper Red Wall seat. If I can win here, he will say this is proof of concept for a Burnham-led Labour Party
4:41
I can win here. We can win anywhere, right? And so the Labour Party, honestly, from my conversations today, I think in those circumstances
4:47
such would be the relief, such would be the adulation and elation of that
4:51
We're back in the game. I almost think there could be a Burnham coronation. I really do. There wouldn't even be a contest
4:55
And there would be advantages to that for the Labour Party, of course, because you wouldn't have this long, drawn-out period where you've got a contest
5:01
I was thinking about that last night, that there could be a kind of a coronation. But how does that happen
5:05
Would the Cabinet... I know we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but how does the Cabinet... Would the Cabinet, senior members of the Cabinet, just go to Starmer and say
5:11
we've got our guy who can take us through to the next direction? I think what would happen is that there would be pressure on Starmer
5:15
to resign from within the Cabinet, the PRP, and it would be understood that there would be, no one else would contest it
5:21
The MPs would elect him unopposed. That happened with Gordon Brown in 2007. And he would just automatically be elected leader unopposed
5:28
But that's the scenario one for Starmer. And I suppose the best case for that would be that Starmer says
5:33
during the leadership campaign or during the ballot election campaign, I'll give you a job in the cabinet
5:37
And that gives Burnham a bit of a decision to make. Do I say I'll accept it? Do I not say
5:41
And, you know, would I launch a leadership election on day one? Whatever. But anyway, that's difficult. Scenario two, I think, is equally as difficult for Keir Starmer
5:47
which is that Burnham loses. And Burnham loses and that sets off an emotional cascade within the Labour Party a true crisis because you got all those Labour MPs on thinking oh my God if Burnham can win there when he is popular and when he got a different brand
6:03
of politics, and if he, even he can't win, there's no way I can win, and there's no way we can win
6:08
And I think that will set off a crisis within the Labour Party, which probably leads to a
6:12
leadership election quite soon, and it will be messy, and it will be bloody, and it will be with
6:16
the candidates they've got in Parliament, you know, the Ed Miliband, the Angela Rayne, the
6:20
the West Streetings and so on. And who knows, maybe even Starmer himself. Well, let's talk. As things stand, it's Starmer..
6:26
Apologies, it's Andy Burnham is the guy. Let's talk about who he is politically within the Labour Party
6:33
and then some of the factions that will be looking at him and saying, yes, go on, Andy, and others will be going, absolutely not
6:39
Well, look, Andy Burnham is someone who has been around politics for a long time
6:44
You know, he was a special advisor to Tessa Jowell, the late culture secretary in the Blair government
6:50
He became a cabinet minister himself during the Brown government. He was health secretary at the end of the Brown government
6:57
He stood, of course, for leader in 2010, stood for leader in 2015, and it ought to have been his in 2015
7:02
He screwed it up. He did screw it up. He made a series of decisions, which needs not detain us
7:06
that helped facilitate Jeremy Corbyn's ascension. He then served in the shadow cabinet of Jeremy Corbyn
7:11
And when the mayoralties were created, this was a George Osborne idea, that came along and he saw the opportunity to sort of reinvent himself a little bit
7:20
And he became mayor of Greater Manchester. And he's considered to have done a good job
7:24
You know, Manchester is a real success story, you know, in an otherwise pretty poor economic performance for the UK
7:30
Manchester, Greater Manchester, for all sorts of reasons, is a real bright spot. Burnham has got his own part to play
7:35
And that does precede him, it has to be said. But he's part of that. I think it's fair to say that you would say that he was on the sort of..
7:41
Some people say he's a bit of a chameleon. You know, they say he used to be a real Blairite
7:46
Now he's more on the sort of soft left of the Labour Party. I think it's true
7:49
he would always say he was always more on the left of new Labour than new Labour. And I think
7:54
it's probably true to say that like some other political figures, he's moved a bit to the left
7:59
over time. He's certainly someone who in Greater Manchester has been interested in the idea of a
8:03
more interventionist state, a more activist state. And he's spelled out some ideas, including things
8:09
like a wealth tax and so on, which are definitely on the left. He gets criticism, I think, sometimes
8:14
I think a bit unfairly, people sometimes say, oh, he's really different to how he used to be, He's got really different beliefs
8:19
I think kind of the rejoinness to that is to say, well, aren't you allowed to grow as a politician
8:24
I mean, yeah, he probably does believe some different things than he did 20 years ago, but don't you
8:28
And some people say, well, he was a bad politician. He lost leadership twice. But again, are you better in your job than you were five years ago
8:34
10 years ago, 15 years ago? You'd hope so. So look, yeah, well, not always
8:39
But, you know, so this is, I think at the moment, his great advantage, the point of comparison
8:44
I'd make sure, is in a way what he is at the moment. he's almost the Labour Party's Boris Johnson
8:48
If you remember the circumstances that Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in 2019 it was always used to be said that Boris Johnson would never be leader of the Conservative Party because there were too many people in the Tory party who didn like him didn rate him Similar sort of vibe to some extent with Andy Burnham
9:03
But the circumstances around Johnson's elevation in 19 would be similar to now
9:08
Basically, the Tory party then was desperate. Was desperate and it was afraid
9:12
And it had a performer. Because it had just come fifth in European elections in 2019
9:16
the dog days of Theresa May's premiership, and the Conservative Party starts to worry
9:20
that they would actually be destroyed. And they turn to Johnson as the king over the water
9:25
someone who could genuinely say that they were going to do something new because they were not been in that government for a while
9:31
And Andy Burnham is like that plus, plus, plus because he's not even been in Parliament during this time
9:37
And, you know, I'm speaking to people, I would say, who are on the sort of Blairite right of the party
9:40
not natural kind of sort of Burnham people who are saying this guy's time has come
9:45
Sometimes in politics when you're desperate... In a coded way where streeting is doing that, isn't it
9:49
Possibly. He's keeping his options open. Exactly. Sometimes in politics, you know, the circumstances maketh the man, right
9:54
And circumstances sort of almost conspire to make people consider options that they might not have done weeks or months ago
10:02
And I think that's the sort of space that we're in there. Is it the right sort of comparison to say or ogy to say that
10:10
Andy Burnham is Ed Miliband to Keir Starmer's David Miliband in terms of party factions, belief systems
10:19
Yes, and there's a lot of speculation that Ed Miliband could end up being Andy Burnham's Chancellor
10:24
for example, in a Burnham government. So, yes, I think it's fair to say that they are of a like mind
10:29
and have been on something of a sort of similar journey. I think both have probably moved to the left a little bit over time
10:33
Probably both of them on the left, they were both around during the new Labour years, probably more on the left of that sort of side of thing
10:39
brown-eyed side of thing, but they've moved over time. Two lefties, the markets, a few wins
10:43
Look, we're not talking about, look, we're not talking about Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels here, Sheila
10:47
You know, we're talking about two people who were part of the new Labour project, you know
10:51
So I think sometimes, you know, sometimes if you're a millimetre to the left of Tony Blair
10:56
the way we talk about these people I think is a bit extreme. So, no, but I think it's fair to say, look, we talked yesterday about the fact
11:02
that certainly if there were a contest, the Labour Party's probably moving to the left anyway
11:06
And Burnham is someone, and one thing I'd say, though, for Burnham is that he would have to prove himself on, is the thing that he's made his name on
11:13
and the thing that he would have to develop on, obviously, his most popular period of politician
11:17
is, as he's been, Mr Manchester. Now, if you're Prime Minister, you can't be Mr Manchester
11:22
You can't be King of the North. You can't be sectional. You have to govern for the entire country
11:26
You can't do the whole, oh, Westminster's being mean to us again, all this sort of thing. Doesn't mean he can't have an agenda
11:31
for regional development. Of course, you want that, and I suspected do more devolution and all that sort of thing
11:36
But you can't be the king over the water anymore. You've got to be the king. And I think over the next few weeks
11:41
people will be looking at him to, obviously he's going to be campaigning in Makerfield
11:45
about Makerfield, but to start to give some indication as to what that more developed agenda might be
11:52
when you can't just be Mr North of England
#news