Up next in 10
Iain Dale hears from LBC's Bethany Dawson and political commentator Peter Kellner about Labour's recent comeback in the polls.
Nicknamed 'the Burnham Bounce', Labour has topped More in Common's public opinion poll, overtaking Reform's previous 32% lead.
Recent polling put Labour top with 26 per cent, up one point, with Nigel Farage's party trailing with 24 per cent, down two points.
Iain Dale asks: Will this last?... and is Andy Burnham trying too hard to be popular?
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
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0:00
First impressions count, don't they
0:01
I remember Ian Duncan Smith back in about, I don't know, 2004, 2005
0:06
saying that he reckoned that a political party leader has 90 days to allow people to make their minds up about them
0:15
90 days in 2003, I would suggest is probably about 10 days now
0:20
I think a lot of people have made up their minds about Andy Byrne, both positively and negatively, after only eight days
0:27
So that's really what I want to ask you this hour. How do you think he's doing? What are your first impressions of Andy Burnham as prime minister
0:34
Are they different to what you thought he might be like? What do you think he's done well
0:37
What do you think he hasn't done well? I'm going to give him a little bit of a scorecard. I think on communications, I think he scores a B+
0:46
I'm slightly irritated by some of his social media videos, but he's doing something a bit different, and I think that's good
0:53
I think on the speed of policy announcements, he gets a B+
0:57
in terms of actual the meat of them. I think the jury is out on that
1:03
I wouldn't give him as much as a B plus, I have to say
1:08
His ministerial appointments, I think probably a B. I think he's going to live to regret getting rid of the entire Starmer Praetorian Guard
1:19
I think he's essentially created trouble for himself on the back benches in the long term
1:24
But you look at some of the announcements that he's made, and there is a bit of a thread to them
1:30
There is a little bit of a narrative, and that was something that everybody complained that Keir Starmer just didn't have
1:35
And I think the narrative is to do something for what he would term the working classes
1:41
Now, you can ridicule the VAT cut on energy, if you like. It amounts to 90 pence a week
1:47
But it's something, isn't it? You can ridicule the announcement about extra money for or extra money off taxes for pubs
1:57
He says he's doing that because they are part of our working class culture
2:02
But there are quite a few other things. I mean, the technical education announcement that he's made today, which we're going to be talking about at 7.35 with the Lib Dem education spokesperson, Muneera Wilson, and then talking about that after 10
2:15
I mean, again, something that I think a lot of people is going to resonate with a lot of people
2:19
He says, why do some people in this country still look down their noses at so-called working class jobs
2:27
Shouldn't be that way. He's absolutely right on that. So how would you score him? Do you have some positive first impressions
2:35
I think on the communications front, he's a breath of fresh air compared to Keir Starmer
2:40
But I wonder sometimes, is he trying too hard to be a people pleaser? Is he trying a little bit too hard to be popular
2:46
There's nothing wrong with a politician wanting to be popular, is there? Well, Bethany Dawson is LBC's political correspondent and she joins us now
2:53
Bethany, it's interesting to look at two or three of the polls that have come out in the last few days
2:57
and they make quite positive reading for the new Prime Minister. They do. We've heard a lot about the burn and bounce that Labour hope to get
3:05
some improvement in the polls and they do seem like they starting to get it We had two polls now where Andy Burnham or rather where Labour leads reform That is not something we seen for quite a while now And there was a really
3:18
interesting poll from YouGov today, which found that people think Andy Burnham would be a better
3:24
Prime Minister than Nigel Farage. 40% of people would pick Andy Burnham over Farage. 22% would
3:30
pick Farage. 38% would prefer him over Kemi Badenoch. 26% would support Kemi Badenoch
3:37
So you can see that he is popular. But as you said, it has only been eight days
3:42
And if you look back to this point in the Keir Starmer administration, he was pretty popular for a little while, for a few weeks
3:53
And then you saw it drop just after the general election. Forty four percent were had a favorable view of Keir Starmer
4:01
That went down to thirty five in just two months. So this honeymoon period that we're talking about, it doesn't really seem that any politician seems to have much time anymore
4:10
As you said, probably not even 90 days. And that might be why Andy Burnham has moved so quickly to produce so many policies
4:19
I mean, in those eight days that he's been prime minister, there have been seven announcements or seven sort of moves
4:26
As you said, cut VAT on energy bills. He's lowered the price cap
4:30
He's introduced a new educational template. He said he wanted to end rough sleeping. He's opened number 10 North. He's cut business rates on pubs, clubs and smaller music venues. And he's met with Volodymyr Zelensky. So he's done a lot
4:46
And as you say, you know, it might be because he just doesn't have much time to have any wiggle room
4:52
But it also might be because there was so much criticism of Keir Starmer not doing much or making a speech and then commissioning a review
4:59
And then everyone has to wait years for any movement. He is showing that he can just get some stuff done
5:06
And he also appears to believe what he's doing. With Keir Starmer, there's always a slight robotic effect about him
5:13
but Andy Burnham seems to feel it from his heart or am I being a bit slushy
5:18
There's something that I think is really interesting about Andy Burnham and I don't mean this to sound rude
5:23
I really don't mean it offensively he's not the most fluent speaker
5:27
he ums and ahs quite a lot I mean I do too hold my hands up
5:31
there we go an example of it but he sounds like a normal person talking and a lot of politicians
5:36
including some very good ones are so fluent that it almost sounds rehearsed
5:41
when they're talking about things they believe in. But Andy Burnham does kind of sound like a normal guy
5:47
talking about things that he likes. Now, that might completely be the idea
5:51
He very much has built a character that he is a normal guy
5:55
He's the bloke down the pub and you just want him to go and sort everything out, you know
6:00
But he does seem incredibly passionate and, as you say, has successfully sort of drawn a narrative with his policy announcements
6:07
a lot of them focusing on the cost of living, almost all of them focusing on normal people
6:13
And even you can see his cabinet starting to do this. I wrote yesterday that Yvette Cooper
6:18
the new health secretary is launching DHSC North Now that actually just a really a renaming of offices that have existed in Leeds for a long time But the idea is so that the Department for Health can show that they are focusing on communities in the north of England and indeed in smaller parts of England not just big cities and towns
6:38
So you can see that they are really drawing a narrative that they are helping people that feel as though they've been forgotten by those in Whitehall
6:45
Well, as I always say, what about people in the southwest? What about people in the northeast
6:49
I mean, if everything is going to be concentrated on what he terms the north
6:55
and Manchester, if you're in Newcastle, is not the north. Newcastle is the north
6:59
I think that is storing up trouble for him. I really do. And I think one thing that is interesting is the visits that Andy Burnham has been on
7:06
and where he's made these policy announcements this week. He went, of course, up to Manchester to open number 10 north
7:12
but he was also in Portsmouth. He was also in Bath. You know, he has been going across the country trying, and it's quite obvious
7:18
I think you mean Bath. I'm very sorry to our listeners. No, you didn't get the joke
7:26
That's how Andy Burnham would pronounce it. Well, if I start talking how Andy Burnham talks
7:30
I think we'll get some very upset texters in. I think they'd find it entertaining. I can't do a Manchester
7:34
I actually got told off over the weekend for trying. It didn't sound very good. But he's very clearly trying to show that he is not just a Manchester guy
7:43
He loves Manchester. He's put a number 10 base there. He's not kind of leaving those routes behind
7:48
But he is very clearly trying to show, I mean, practice what he preaches, right
7:52
A decentralisation of power rather than just like a second centralised base
7:58
Thank you very much, Bethany. I did say I was going to ask you to give ratings, but obviously you're completely impartial
8:04
So you'd have to give him a C plus average, wouldn't you? Everyone gets a C. Right. Peter Kellner can give him some marks, though
8:10
He is a political commentator, former president of YouGov. Peter, very good evening
8:14
Now, you've been writing today in The New Statesman that you think the burn and bounce might be a little bit short-lived
8:20
Why? I'm not saying it will be. I'm just saying it's too early to say that it will last
8:27
We've had two more polls out today. So if you take the four polls we've had yesterday and today, we've got two of them showing Labour and Reform tide
8:36
That's you, Govern, Delta poll. We've got two of them showing Labour narrowly ahead
8:41
That's more in common and salvation. So, look, the parties are close together
8:47
Individual polls are subject to margins of error. But clearly, reform is toppling on or from its perch
8:58
But, you know, we've had a week when Andy Burnham has had a lot of very favourable publicity
9:03
He's used it extremely well. If in two or three months' time, and perhaps you can play this back to me then
9:12
If Labour is five or ten points ahead, then I will willingly say, yes, there is a bounce that's lasted
9:19
But we'll wait and see. I'm not sure yet that it will be a bounce that lasts
9:25
Because you really can tell a prime minister's mettle when they have to make really difficult decisions
9:30
And that often is through events that they cannot have predicted when they came into office So look I think he certainly had a better start in some ways than Keir Starmer did after the election I can remember how long it was before the suits and glasses thing blew up
9:46
but it wasn't that long after, was it? Let's hope he doesn't suffer something like that
9:51
You're right. But can I say the other side of that coin, and the large part of my piece for the New States
9:56
which I encourage your listeners to read, is that what's happened to reform
10:00
because Nigel Farage's ratings have gone down a long way. And the latest polling for DeltaPol, for example, shows him badly negative
10:13
So I think the gloss is off reform. And given that it was reform surge last year that sent both Labour and the Conservatives down below 20%
10:24
percent i think the fact that reform are down to the middle or possibly even the lower 20s in terms
10:30
of percentage um i i think is is significant news you're looking at the latest polls um i'm struck
10:38
by the fact that both labor and the conservatives are up a few points on where they were six or nine
10:45
months ago i remember writing a a blog on my my sub stack i think about six months ago pointing
10:51
out that Labour and the Conservatives were together, combined, below 40%. They were sort of
10:57
18%, 19%, the two of them. They're now both above 20%. And one of the polls, I'm looking at my
11:04
chart now, more in common, you add together Labour 28, Conservative 20, they're on 50%
11:11
Perhaps we're seeing the beginning of a return of the old two-party battle. But Labour's rise
11:20
under Andy Burnham is the flip side of the decline of reform
11:25
And also the Greens, I think, have declined quite a bit in the last few months, whereas
11:30
Zach Polanski got a huge fillet when he first became Green Party leader
11:33
But you don't really hear much from him nowadays. And their poll rating has gone down from, what, 15 to 18 percent to way below that
11:42
That's right. And of course, the controversy in the last 24 hours about his ex or tweet
11:49
hasn't helped him. But looking at the figures, yeah, the four polls we've had over the last few days
11:57
two were on 10%, one on eight, one on 13. The average around 10%
12:01
and it was around 15% shortly after he became leader. So I think the shine has gone off Polanski quite seriously
12:09
and Andy Burnham's arrival has contributed to that. So you're Andy Burnham's headmaster
12:14
What grade do you give him for his first eight days? Oh my goodness, Ian. That's very hard. I mean, I tell you why it's hard. Take the big announcement
12:24
today on technical education. He's, what, the fifth prime minister in succession, I think
12:31
through a big speech about the importance of technical education and making it equal to
12:36
academic education. But none of the other four delivered. If he delivers on that, it's an A
12:43
If it's just words and it fails to deliver, then it's a C. At the moment, I can't tell whether it's an A or a C
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