0:00
I think that you can't ignore the obvious
0:03
And of course, every political party, including my own, the Conservatives, will find reasons to quibble
0:09
But I'm afraid that Nigel Farage's success, success in almost, not quite every, but almost every part of the United Kingdom
0:21
particularly the evidence of people switching straight from Labour to reform in the North and Midlands
0:28
does mean that at the moment he has to be the favourite to be in number 10
0:34
Whether or not as leader of a majority or not, we'd see, but certainly you would have to bet on him being the leader of the largest party
0:42
in any new House of Commons on the basis of what we've seen in the last 24 hours
0:46
And is that partly because of a kind of existential despair at the condition of Britain felt by many people economically
0:55
but also in terms of pride, national history and the rest of it? I do think that there is a real sense of anger
1:01
Everyone whom I talk to who's been out campaigning for whatever party has reflected on the almost sulfurous state of public opinion
1:10
That's often been directed at the person of the prime minister, but actually it's very widespread
1:15
And some of the most effective measurers and judges of public opinion, people like the pollster Luke Trill, who runs focus groups as well as opinion polls
1:23
do report on the fact that there is scorn for what you might call the establishment
1:28
And people are quick to get straight into the Anglo when they describing existing politicians And so therefore Nigel Farage is the principal beneficiary of that There are elements of a popular uprising here The immediate question of course one of the big immediate questions is about the future of the prime minister himself
1:47
Now, if I can put this delicately, you have had a little bit of history of
1:51
leadership challenges and all of that. In a spirit of disinterested non-partisanship
1:57
what would be your advice to the Labour Party? Don't do anything too quickly. Taking a decision about leadership when you're exhausted at the end of an electoral contest is never, if you have that little bit of time to reflect, never a very good idea
2:14
And secondly, the Labour Party's problems wouldn't simply be solved by a change of personnel at the top
2:23
We know that Andy Burnham is a more passable figure with a lead in the polls that Keir Starmer must look at enviously
2:30
But Andy, nice guy who he is, has benefited from being out of Westminster
2:36
If he had been, if his hands had been involved in any of the decisions
2:40
of the cabinet, then his popularity would not be where it is now. So simply imagining that you can graft on a new face
2:48
and that that will transform the fortunes of the government is a mistake
2:52
There needs to be a proper reassessment of where the government's gone wrong
2:56
And the only reason to change leader is not because you're looking for stardust
3:01
It's because you're looking for a strategy which is sharper than the one that Labour has
3:05
And that would require, for instance, challenging the Labour backbenches on many of the things that they believe
3:10
Many on the Labour backbenches and certainly Labour activists even though reform are the big winners will actually be hurt emotionally more by the loss of votes to the Greens And it will be seductive to move back into a left wing comfort zone
3:26
believing that that will win back Green votes. And that will create a progressive block that can stop Farage
3:32
And that means on everything from saying to the Supreme Court that they were wrong on gender
3:38
to not being prepared to make the welfare cuts necessary, to thinking that some of the measures that Rachel Reeves in the past
3:46
has contemplated on growth are a waste. A general shift to the left
3:52
I think that sentiment is strong in Labour. It's going to be very tempting for an awful lot of Labour MPs
3:59
to look at Keir Starmer's personal ratings and think, out there there is a saviour who can turn things round
4:05
Are they right? No, I don't believe so. I think that it would be a mistake for people in Labour to think
4:11
that a simple change of personnel, no matter how apparently charismatic the alternative might be
4:18
would transform their fortunes. I think that it's undeniably the case that you have in Andrew
4:24
Burnham someone who is an attractive, personable alternative, but he's benefited by being away from
4:30
the scene of the various cabinet crimes and not having his hands sullied by the blood in which
4:37
other potential leadership contenders have had to wade. And so were he back in government
4:45
were he associated with the decisions, the compromises the government requires, that popularity would fade
4:50
Ultimately, the problem that Labour has is one not of stardust but of strategy Let me ask you about somebody who I think is almost like a prot of yours certainly somebody you admire Kemi Badenok On the numbers that happened in Essex overnight she might even lose her seat James Cleverley might lose his seat This is a very very sharp challenge for the Conservative leadership
5:12
they have the question as to whether to move a little bit more Farage East
5:17
or move more towards their, as it were more, pro-European, quotes, moderate quotes, traditional voters
5:24
And that is going to be a very, very hard choice for the Conservative Party
5:28
What would be your advice? The Conservatives don't have an easy way forward. But I think that the choice that you put
5:33
which is a choice that many are framing, I think is a binary that they would reject
5:37
and that I'm a wee bit sceptical of. I think that rather than the Conservatives defining themselves
5:42
vis-a-vis other parties, what the Conservatives need to do is to be the best versions of themselves
5:47
So on migration, Kemi Behnok has undoubtedly hardened the Conservative line, but actually it's a position
5:53
which even Green voters on the whole agree with. I think that the pitch that Kemi Behnok has made
6:01
over the last few months to younger aspirational voters, getting rid of stamp duty to help people on the property ladder
6:08
reforming student loan finance in order to lift that debt burden, I think that has complemented the tougher line on migration so that you have, as it were, a hard line on borders and a pro opportunity message
6:24
There are signs compared to this time last year that the Conservatives are moving forward
6:30
I think it would be churlish to deny that. But I think it would also be needlessly optimistic to say that it's a great leap forward
