Up next in 10
Andrew Marr is joined by Financial Times journalists Stephen Bush and Lucy Fisher, alongside Spectator deputy political editor James Heale, to unpack a dramatic night in British politics. As Reform surges, Labour faces mounting internal pressure, and the Conservatives struggle to regain ground, the panel asks whether Britain’s two-party system is beginning to fracture. Can Keir Starmer recover? Is Nigel Farage reshaping the right? And what do these results mean for the next general election? Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #andrewmarr #localelections #LBC #ukpolitics #uknews #keirstarmer #stephenbush #lucyfisher #jamesheale #farage #politics LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
It is pretty much the end of the week and what a week it's been
0:03
So I am delighted that I'm joined now by a political panel comprising Lucy Fisher, Whitehall editor
0:08
and Stephen Bush, associate political editor, both at the FT, and James Heal, deputy political editor at The Spectator
0:15
Welcome to you all. And I'm going to start by simply asking, if you're doing the headline tonight
0:20
the most important fact for people to take away, what is it? James, I'll start with you
0:24
Stummer rejected as nationalist triumph. Lucy. Death knell for two party politics. Stephen
0:31
Crushing defeat for Britain's two major parties. Well, we're all in the sort of same kind of area, I guess
0:38
I started the show by suggesting that I thought we were now the way things are in terms of
0:43
momentum and taking one thing with another, heading for a reformed government
0:47
And I just wonder if you agree with me or disagree with me
0:51
Yeah, I think that is the most... A time traveller arrived here now and told us
0:56
that was happening, I think, which would surprise us the least. Well, look, they've had a brilliant day
1:01
I think it's fair for Farage to hail this as a historic moment for reform
1:06
And of course, in a first-past-the-post-party system, it aids his argument now that he can say it's proven
1:11
we are the preeminent party of the right. If you want a right-wing leader in Downing Street
1:16
right-wing party in government, it's reform, not the Conservatives that you need to vote for
1:22
Indeed, they are preeminent. And if you look at what's happened in Essex and across the southeast, they've had some very dramatic results
1:29
So, James, you know, you're at the Spectator. What does that do to the right of centre media landscape
1:35
In other words, I know that lots of your colleagues, including on the Telegraph and elsewhere, are kind of wondering which way to go
1:40
Does this actually give Farage and reform a big boost in the media? I think it does. I think there's been a lot of talk over the past few months about reform peaking
1:48
I think that this has confirmed that they are in a better position than coming to be the next prime minister, the next government
1:54
I think you'll also see the kind of ecosystem in places like Wales, where they're just going to hire a whole bunch of assistants, etc
2:00
They're going to get millions of pounds in funding. They can start creating something there. And I think that it's going to see a more gravitational push to Nigel Farage
2:06
And I think that over the next few months, we're going to see that developing ecosystem structure help more
2:11
And I kind of think that change the tone But can I ask about Keir Starmer more directly because he said you know he takes full responsibility It not quite clear what that actually means because he also not walking away
2:22
So I guess we'll find out there'll be another speech. There'll be perhaps a cabinet reshuffle or whatever
2:27
Do you think he can recover? Well, I know today that there are 10 Labour MPs who've come out for the first time calling on him to resign
2:34
And that's over and above critics who'd already made clear their views within the party and within the trade union movement
2:42
Also, while the cabinet have kept their powder dry so far, when you look through the list of which cabinet ministers have had elections in or abutting their seats and have seen very dismal results for Labour
2:53
you've got to wonder about them considering their future, whether they could be booted out of Parliament at the next election
2:59
Jonathan Reynolds, the chief wit, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary
3:04
It's getting personal as well. On the other hand, Stephen, there is the first mover problem
3:10
because there's an awful lot of people I talk to who would love to have Andy Burnham back
3:15
but he's not in the Commons. If I was Keir Starmer, I might say, well, you know what, I might bring Andy back
3:19
and you then buy yourself a few months while that unwinds. On the other hand, if you're Wes Streeting or you're Angela Rayner
3:26
you then feel I have to move before that. Yeah, this is the big variable, right
3:32
Which isn't if the question before the Labour Party is who can save the Labour Party and who can defeat Nigel Farage
3:38
The polls are very clear. The standout candidate is Andy Burnham. But his path back to Parliament is essentially, oh, well, I don't have a seat, but maybe a friend of a friend of mine can
3:48
And I think we've all at some point had conversations with MPO. Oh, well, I wouldn't do it, but I heard that someone else would
3:53
And you just think, well, is your Canadian girlfriend going to give you give him a parliamentary seat
3:58
And I think if you're Keir Starmer, you could successfully play that to your advantage
4:02
But Keir has consistently shown he's not very deft. He has a deep disliking of Andy Burnham and wouldn't want to do anything to facilitate his return
4:13
But that means, I think at the moment, one of the reasons why they're sort of in suspended animation is the average Labour MP has been out on doors
4:19
They know they can't go into a general election with Keir Starmer as leader. But they also have deep concern about going into a general election with Angela Rayner as leader They not convinced that West Streeting could defeat Angela Rayner among the members So they kind of in a well look maybe something will come up Maybe something will come up Looking at all the various options it seems to me that West
4:39
Streeting is actually quite well placed. I mean, he's said to be too far on the right
4:43
of the party to be able to do it. But I'm beginning to wonder. Well, look, one of the claims was that he was too close to Peter Mandelson. That hasn't
4:50
been borne out so far. And he obviously made that move to publish his private messages to
4:54
show they weren't as matey as some in Westminster were claiming. He is on the Blairite wing and that
4:59
does make it difficult when it comes to a vote of the leadership. But I think the party is now
5:03
reeling. Panic is beginning to grip MPs. If there is polling, if there is private focus group data
5:09
that the West Camp can adduce showing that he would be more popular with the public
5:13
I think that could move things in the Labour Party. James Heal, can I ask you about Al Karns
5:19
Not only the most decorated MP, I think, in history ever, but also clearly the MP with the biggest muscles
5:26
He also quite fancies himself, I think, as a possible contender. I think any man who at 57 decides in their parliamentary recess to go and reach the summit of Mount Everest is not one to be trifled with
5:37
I mean, I don't know what it says about our economy that we've got a military strongman standing. But I think it does show half the MPs in Parliament and the Labour Party are new intake
5:45
They very much are looking around thinking the cabinet are going to take a stand. Who else might? Yeah, in a way, I'm using Al Kahn as an example of the A and other candidate, because we mentioned the three you've mentioned
5:56
But there are lots of other people inside the Labour Party who think, well, in the Boris Johnson phrase, if the ball slipped out of the scrum, it could be me
6:04
Yeah, I mean, the Al Kahn sort of leadership chatter is a manifestation of the fact MPs are unhappy with the available options
6:11
So they start speculating about others. And he obviously, because of his very impressive CV, although some might look at Keir Starmer's impressive CV and go, ah, are Labour MPs really going to go, we need someone with a strong leaderly chin
6:25
But he is a manifestation of the fact that what they are hoping for is someone who will emerge and say, look, no, I can turn this ship around
6:33
Lucy Fisher, we're giving everybody listening the conversation that's going on the whole time between Labour MPs
6:39
In the end, you come back thinking, do you know what, actually Keir Starmer might stay
6:43
for quite a while I do think inertia is underpriced Because of the high threshold mechanically to trigger a contest 81 MPs need to go over the parapet unless Starmer suggests he step down
6:56
And I don't think he will. He's a defiant, stubborn man of character wise, and he's indicated
7:01
he won't step down. And there's just not agreement in the rest of the party about what to do
7:06
They've also seen the turmoil it plunged the Tory party into. And Starmer's making that argument
7:11
against Regicide by pointing to that. You mentioned the Tory party. James, what do you think of Kemi Bainock's performance so far
7:17
She's had some very bad news and she's had some better news. I think that she was helped slightly by the timing of some of these results
7:23
coming out in terms of those London areas, which will enable her to replicate the Ken Baker playbook of 1990
7:29
and talk about Westminster and Wandsworth. But I think the Conservatives are in a really deep trouble right now
7:35
What's so striking to me is actually how there is no sense of challenge and I think that she can claim credit for some decent
7:40
an uptick in energy compared to last year. But overall, I think the Conservatives are facing some real challenges
7:46
Really, really horrendous. Stephen, if she hadn't won Westminster, she'd have had a very, very difficult story to tell
7:53
Yes, I think James is exactly right also about the timing of the declarations
7:56
which of course doesn't matter at all, but it does in terms of the mood music
8:00
And I think the fact that there was this moment of, oh, look, they've won back Westminster, they have something to say
8:05
I think that has allowed... I think Kemi Bader-Knox's biggest achievement this year
8:09
She's made the Conservative Party feel better about losing. But unfortunately, when we zoom out, they are losing very, very badly indeed
8:17
Lucy, we had a discussion about her earlier in the show with the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride
8:24
and he kept saying, he kept using the word grown up. We are the serious grown up party
8:29
We're the ones with the real solutions. I just wonder whether in this slightly frenetic populist atmosphere we all live in these days, that will cut through
8:38
I also slightly question whether that is the case. I mean, the Conservatives say they want to occupy the centre ground
8:44
They want to talk more about the economy, regain their reputation for fiscal responsibility and sound money
8:50
And yet, you know, they do seem to want to be playing on the cultural territory
8:54
They seem to be chasing reform off to the right. That's a very sage point
8:59
We're out of time. James, Lucy, Stephen, thank you all very much indeed
9:03
You've been great
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