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Iain Dale speaks with pollster Damian Lyons Lowe and think tank director Theo Bertram about the frontrunners in a potential Labour leadership contest. Andy Burnham has confirmed he intends to stand in the Makefield by-election vacated by Labour MP Josh Simons, potentially sparking his route to become Prime Minister. The announcement comes just hours after Wes Streeting penned his resignation letter to Sir Keir Starmer, as a leadership contest becomes increasingly likely. Damian Lyons Lowe weighs up the likelihood of Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting, according to Labour Party polling. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #iaindale #starmer #ukpoltics #andyburnham #wesstreeting #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Can you tell us about how you choose who to poll in this
0:04
Because I know when Conservative Home have done similar polls, it's very easy to have sort of, well, what would now be called Reform UK voters
0:13
sort of slipping into the sample here. I mean, how sure are you that all of the people that you've polled are actually Labour Party members
0:22
So we've decided to use a trust basis. So we ran about..
0:27
Never a good idea in politics. Well, I don't believe there are any members polling that exists that is published where people make the members share their ID cards
0:42
So we do know that the sort of people that would read Labour List online publication, they are members of the Labour Party typically
0:54
And they generally... But I read it. Yep. Now, have you told Servation that you're a Labour Party member
1:02
No, I haven't, but I'm sure there may be people that have. Right
1:05
So as long as there are enough people generally telling the truth, right
1:10
and that the lies don't outweigh the truth, you know, as with any opinion poll that's online
1:18
people generally don't have to prove that they are that thing. So what are the conclusions
1:23
Well, you go have a Labour member poll panel, they do that, and they don't make you go panel members prove with their Labour Party cards that they are Labour members
1:37
And that's also a self-selecting. OK, so what are the conclusions? So the conclusions are, I mean, look, the too long didn't read is that Labour members are massively in favour of Andy Burnham being the next leader of the Labour Party
1:52
While only a majority of members would like to see Keir stepping down, Andy Burnham followed by Ed Miliband, then Angela Rayner and Wes treating off into the distance
2:09
He's the choice of sort of single digits numbers of Labour members for being first choice for the next leader of the Labour Party
2:17
I may be wrong on this, but I seem to remember that in the beginnings of the 2015 Labour Party leadership election, Andy Burnham was also quite aware on that
2:27
And we all know what happened then. And I mean, do you think it's possible that these figures could change over the weeks
2:34
Or do you think that they're so categoric that he's almost home and dry if he can win a seat
2:41
Well it a very volatile group of voters right So Wes Streeting in November last year Wes Streeting was seen as in a head to head Wes Streeting versus Keir Starmer if there was a membership election with just those two candidates as the options would slightly beat Keir Starmer in a membership election
3:02
As Wes's ambition has grown to the current day, his popularity with Labour members has decreased, as he's seen as being a plotter, being disloyal
3:13
Labour Party members are quite keen on loyalty and not plotting. I think Andy Burnham has also had a knock in his favourability in our polling since last year
3:24
But he's starting from a much higher base. He was something like an 85% positive favourability with Labour members at some point last year
3:32
And as he sort of started making shapes around the time of the Labour Party conference
3:36
Labour members didn't like that very much. But he's now sort of a mere kind of plus 55% favourability rating amongst Labour members
3:44
So he's still sitting pretty. And why does Angela Rayner figure in this
3:48
Because given that it's a sort of preferential choice voting system, as I understand it
3:54
a second place candidate in preferential voting can often pull through and win
4:00
Now, where does she stand? So in a field that doesn't include Andy Burnham, she can do very well
4:08
If it did also include Ed Miliband, I think members would be pretty split
4:13
between Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband. But in a West Street team, Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, final three
4:21
which, of course, is a possibility if, say, Ed doesn't fancy it
4:26
and the make-a-field by-election goes against Andy Burnham or he's not allowed to stand, then, you know, you could have Angela Rayner
4:32
as the next Labour Party, next Prime Minister. So she is a favourite of the soft left group of MPs
4:41
and also of Labour Party members. She does very well. Not quite the favourability of Andy Burnham
4:46
I don't bet, but if I did, I would put money on Angela Rayner, I have to say
4:51
Let's talk about Makerfield, because I think you've got some useful information on that constituency
4:55
Yeah. Okay, so it's a bit of a weird one. So if you if you said, well, what what does your election model say about Makerfield
5:02
We would say massive reform when, you know, almost 50 percent of the vote if there was a general election tomorrow
5:08
But, you know, if you if you add the Andy Burnham effect, things change quite, quite rapidly
5:14
So as an example, we poll the Gorton and Denson by-election throughout the campaign, indicating a Green Party win to people commissioning polling
5:27
We then called 500 people back and just confirmed how they voted in the by Then we said if Andy Burnham was the candidate or if the candidates were and we read out the candidate names substituted
5:39
Angelica's name for Andy Burnham's name, how would you have voted? And things changed hugely
5:47
So amongst people who did vote Labour in the 2024 general election, 36% of Gorton and Denton
5:54
Labour voters voted Labour in the by-election. If Andy Burnham was the candidate, that would become
6:00
65% of Labour voters. Amongst Green voters, 43% of Green voters told us they would not have voted
6:08
Green in the by-election in Gorton Denton. They would have voted for Andy Burnham as the Labour
6:14
candidate. So two things going on, right? One is that Andy Burnham is a very familiar
6:20
character in the Northwest. He's done very well in successive elections. His national popularity
6:28
and local popularity is very strong. Secondly, all the reasons why you would, you could not like
6:36
Labour, the Director of Labour, you could not like the Labour government, but you can vote for
6:41
Andy Burnham as the Labour candidate because he is seen as the not Keir Starmer. Well, maybe I've
6:48
underestimated his personal vote then because those figures are very very stark aren't they
6:53
Damien thank you very much for joining us that's Damien Lyonslow chief executive of Servation
6:58
Theo Bertram joins me now director of the Social Market Foundation think tank who's also former
7:02
advisor to both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown while each was prime minister. Theo good evening to you
7:09
where do you see things at the moment because we've heard from a sort of fairly left-wing MP
7:14
Andy McDonald as to how he thinks things are going to shake out. How do you think things will
7:21
Well, hi Ian. I mean, what a momentous day. I mean, really quite exceptional in the history of
7:27
the Labour Party. I don't think anyone knows exactly how things are going to play out. As
7:33
you've just been discussing with Damien, there's still a lot of uncertainty about how the votes
7:38
will play out but i think if you look at this from starma's perspective um you know the history
7:46
of prime ministers when you reach this point is there's only one of two ways out you either
7:52
go into a contest and very rarely do they win that major did in 95 as you'll know well
7:58
or they set a timetable for their departure now i think the only question is is starma going to
8:05
to set that timetable or is he gonna be resistant? And we don't know that at the moment
8:11
I think probably what would be best for the Labour Party at this point
8:16
and probably most likely is some sort of contest but who how when and whether starmer resists that or makes it an orderly transition we won know for another few weeks i think now i said you worked
8:29
for tony blair and gordon brown i imagine therefore that you must have worked with andy
8:33
burnham what what do you make yeah what do you make of him because in the 2015 contest he flattered
8:39
to deceive he didn't really seem to uh get any momentum at all and everyone thought he would
8:45
probably be the most likely winner but he he just didn't perform why would this be any different
8:51
well i knew andy when he was a new labour special advisor and obviously he's been on a journey since
8:58
then and you know this is not won't be the first time if he gets through and he gets to stand on
9:04
a leadership contest obviously won't be the first time that he's done that but i think you know what
9:10
Starmer has shown is that communication really is an important part of being prime minister
9:17
especially when the country is in these difficult times. It isn't just that you need to be able to
9:22
explain what's going on, but you need to be able to make an argument and win that argument. And I
9:26
think while Andy and Angela, Rayner and Wes treating of different perspectives, different
9:34
policies come from different wings of the party, all of them are better at communicating and
9:38
connecting with people than Starmer. Would Andy Burnham be a better Prime Minister though? Because
9:44
you can lead a political party and you can make the best speeches, you can connect with people
9:50
but if you're not going to be a good Prime Minister, it's all for nothing, isn't it? And
9:55
clearly at the moment, the electorate is crying out for somebody who they think will be better
10:00
than Keir Starmer. Well, I say two things there. The first is, it is harder to be Prime Minister
10:06
than it's ever been. I think whichever party you come from, wherever you stand, I think the
10:13
constraints we face in a country are really deep and severe. So I think it's always a tough job
10:19
I think it's tougher now than anywhere. And you see that in that incumbents everywhere are losing
10:24
And I think the second thing I would say, and I think you would agree with this, is you can't always tell who's going to be a great prime minister at the point where you've selected them
10:31
And actually, it's only time that tells that. And I think interestingly, both with Margaret Thatcher and with Tony Blair, who, whether
10:38
you like either of them or neither of them, they were the most successful prime ministers
10:43
in terms of how often they were reelected. And both of them got stronger as they went on
10:48
But I think the characteristic that they both had in common was that they were willing not
10:52
only to take on their backbenchers, but to disagree with public opinion and change public opinion
10:58
we need someone who is capable of doing that and I think that will be right at the forefront of this
11:04
leadership election campaign if it does turn into that which I think is the most likely outcome
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