'Burnham bounce' continues as Labour pulls four points ahead of Reform

It is the start of Andy Burnham's biggest week yet, a period that will, in many ways

set the course of his entire term as Prime Minister. On Tuesday, he will head to New York

for a crucial meeting with Donald Trump, the start of an attempt to form a relationship that

of course, will prove decisive in the months ahead. For it is Trump, the sheer chaos he leaves

in his wake, the shredding of international alliances, his seemingly endless war in Iran

and, of course, the economic fallout from it that determines the parameters in which Burnham and his government will have to operate

Will our new prime minister succeed with Trump where Keir Starmer did not

Will he take a different approach? We'll ask a member of the cabinet in a few minutes time

Whether Burnham will have a better go at this than his predecessor did

That's certainly what the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, is hoping will happen

and he wants Burnham to take a tougher stance with Trump and start standing up to the president

You'll hear from him this hour too. And then, after a whistle-stip tour to the United States

it's on to Liverpool for Burnham's first party conference as prime minister

His job? To keep the sense of hope and optimism alive, despite the grim economic reality

And, of course, to convince his party base that he'll offer more change from Keir Starmer

than simply a series of slick TikToks. Once that's out the way, all eyes turn to the biggest test of all

the budget that takes place just over a month from now. A budget in which Chancellor John Healy will have to find billions more pounds to spend

at the very time as the cost of borrowing is going through the roof and the public is getting more and more fed up with seemingly never-ending tax rises

On that note, the Tories are once again urging Labour to slash the welfare bill this weekend

We'll ask a member of Kemi Badenowicz's top team this hour exactly where he thinks the act should fall

And at the core of all of this, the big questions that remain unanswered. Is this Prime Minister ready, willing and able to take some incredibly tough decisions this autumn? Does this affable, consensual, softly spoken, nice guy have the backbone and the courage to do so

And as he weighs up all of this, what political philosophy, if any, is going to guide him in making those choices

The answer to those questions we don't yet have, but we'll get them within the next few weeks

a period that is going to be crucial and fascinating in British politics

Before we speak to the various parties about all of this and lots more, let's talk it all through with Bethany Dawson, LBC's brilliant political correspondent

Morning to you, Bethany. Is the honeymoon over for Andy Burnham? Well this polling would show that they at a bit of a peak with the honeymoon Ben Labour are now four points ahead of reform according to this exclusive Ipsos polling for LBC

And in more news that will make Labour wipe their brows, nearly two in three people say that Reform UK are an extreme party

So it seems whilst Labour's approval is rising, disapproval for reform and a change to their reputation

a negative one at that, is rising. But this does not mean that it is all sunshine and roses for Andy Burnham

And that could be a threat to the honeymoon period. Seven in 10 people polled say they were dissatisfied with how the government is running

That's a rise on that is actually sorry, a reduction on last month

Nineteen percent saw the government as competent last month. So, you know, there is some happiness there, but it's not all looking amazing

And more people are unhappier with Andy Burnham this month than they were last month

Now, we don't exactly know why that is, but there are some questions

Maybe it is, as you said in your introduction, because people are not sure he is ready or willing to take tough choices

They see him as a bit of a tick-tock prime minister. But it might be from the policies that we've seen from him

Maybe it's things to do with oil and gas, a sort of happier position to approve more drilling

It might be what he has said on welfare. He seems to be softer on cutting welfare

There are a lot of questions. But as you say, this week is going to be a really crucial one

And then we'll have big appearances of Andy Burnham at Labour Conference. And then we get his budget in October, which is going to be a really harsh test of that

I'll come onto the budget in just a moment. Those figures, though, I thought really interesting. The proportion of voters dissatisfied with Annie Burnham last month, just 30 percent

In a month, that shot up to 44 percent, a month in which, as you say, Bethany, not a great deal has actually happened

We've had some sort of relatively minor policy changes, but the really tough decisions are still to come

So I just wonder whether that is a sign and frankly, how impatient people are for the sort of change

the big transformative change that Annie Burnham has come to come to number 10 promising

Yeah I mean I think number one people do generally not like the prime minister The prime minister is held to a different standard just by virtue of the fact that they can change things theoretically But we already seen Andy Burnham and his chancellor say that you know the economy was worse than we thought This is all a lot harder than we expected And that isn something that is necessarily going to raise approval ratings because people don have patience as you say It might be to do with those policies And you know although we know in the midst of Westminster there actually only been two weeks where the Prime Minister has been sitting at that dispatch box in Parliament

Well, he's been Prime Minister now for two months and actually people already want to see changes

He's also falling into the issue that every single Prime Minister and Chancellor faces, which is you can't talk about an economy when you're writing a budget. It just doesn't happen

And so whilst we know that, and again, of course, we'll ask questions and get that infamous, you know, well, I can't speculate on a budget line

People don't care. People want to know what's going to happen with the economy. They're hearing Andy Burnham say that he's going to put more hope in every heart and power in every postcode and pennies in every pocket

But they haven't yet heard exactly how. And I think that frustration is what we're seeing

in those numbers. We'll come on to the substance of it, but just on the sort of tonal note

I've noticed a real shift the last week from that kind of lovey-dovey

hopey, changey rhetoric to something a little bit more hard-headed with both the Prime Minister

and the Chancellor warning the public about some really tough choices ahead

On the budget, I mean, we're going to hear a lot, Beth and aren't we, about phrases like fiscal headroom

and so on and guilt yields and all the rest of it. I mean, just how big of a

how tight a bind is John Healy in? He's an incredibly tight bind

And actually, this is something that he kind of should know from his time as Defence Secretary in Keir Starmer's government

Of course, he resigned because he couldn't get Rachel Reeves to commit more money to defence spending

She was saying it's because the government, the economy was in an incredibly tight bind

He didn't buy it, really, quitting in protest. And now he's saying we're in a pretty tight bind

We shouldn't expect to see huge changes in this budget. That is what John Healy and Andy Burnham have been urging

What we should be waiting for is the spring statement, just as exciting, because that's when they have said we will see big changes, especially on defence

Again, that might just be a timing thing. They haven't had very long to draw up a 180 degrees turn the country around budget

But again, people are impatient. So even if the spring statement in the grand scheme of things is quite soon, whether a honeymoon will last that long is to be seen

And I think not. Nick's got in touch on WhatsApp saying it should be hope in every heart, growth in every postcode and slogans in every psyche, which I quite like

Just before we get to conference next weekend, Donald Trump is very much on the agenda for Andy Burnham on Tuesday, a flight to New York for the United Nations General Assembly

He will meet with Donald Trump in the margins of that event. I mean the kind of soap opera around the first interaction between a prime minister and a president always fascinating But again the substance is going to be really interesting Bethany isn it To see whether he does follow Ed Davey advice and we hear from Ed Davey later in the hour

and take a sort of tougher and slightly less fawning approach, perhaps, than Keir Starmer took

Do you think we will see a shift there? I think we will. I think, firstly, Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham are different people

Keir Starmer is a diplomat. We know, or we understand, that he has quit as an MP

And now because he wants to follow a career more in international relations and diplomacy, Andy Burnham, less so sort of happy to dance the dance on the world stage

We've already seen a number of foreign visits to the UK because he wants to have more of a relationship on the British stage rather than the world stage

But Keir Starmer also, you know, played the long game in terms of getting Donald Trump on side

whether that is offering a historic second state visit or, you know, picking up his papers

We're not going to get more letters from the king this time, are we? Spare me that

I would be shocked. But I think Andy Burnham will employ maybe a little bit of northern charm

But I do think we'll probably be tougher if for one reason, because a lot of Labour MPs were really unhappy

with the fact that Keir Starmer was so close to Donald Trump

Some would argue that actually it made negotiations around difficult things like Iran much easier

but they did not like the politics of it, the look. And I think Andy Burnham will take a sort of more arm's length approach

I suppose the other advantage he's got is that he very much has a blank slate with Trump, doesn't he

I mean, this is a man who the president called only a few weeks ago as a mayor of some town

So there is no prior relationship whatsoever. I suspect there's not a lot of knowledge on the part of the president about Andy Burnham

So in some ways, not having those preconceptions, as I think he probably did about Starmer

might help Andy Burnham get off to a positive start. Yeah, I mean, I'm not certain how much Donald Trump tunes into PMQs to watch how the leader of the opposition is doing

But he definitely will have had preconceived notions about Keir Starmer. and I think liked the fact that he was a fancy London lawyer before he was a politician

Andy Burnham, as you said, he referred to him as just a mayor of some town. I am sure we're going to get a clip of them sort of talking about football

and maybe Donald Trump will sort of feign not being able to understand his accent

something like that. There'll be a great TikTok in it. But in terms of the sort of lovey-dovey approach, the very close friends and allies

I think we're going to see something different. They think he'll do a live Instagram from the meeting

That would be quite handy, Burnham. I think he could, couldn't he? A Burnham reel from the Trump meeting

Bethany, thank you very much. Bethany Dawson, LBC's political correspondent