Up next in 10
Lewis Goodall speaks to IPSOS, whose new poll reveals that Labour continues to climb in the polls under Andy Burnham.
Labour is now leading by eight points over the Conservatives - who are in second place for the first time this parliament, according to fresh research from Ipsos.
The poll, seen by LBC, shows voting intention for Labour up to 32 per cent - up five points from last month's research just before conference.
The Tories are now in second on 24 per cent, which is up three points from the last time they polled.
Labour's bounce comes at the expense of Reform UK, which is down three points, and the Green Party, which is down five points.
It's the largest Labour lead this Parliament found by Ipsos.
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0:00
Big week for John Healy, the still newish Chancellor
0:03
A speech, a position I suspect he never thought he would be in
0:07
on the verge, the precipice of delivering his first budget as Chancellor of the Exchequer, taking over from Rachel Reeves
0:14
And he does so at a moment when Britain's political and fiscal situations
0:19
are becoming fused. And our situation as a country with the fiscal situation
0:26
with a debt of now £3 trillion, A deficit which is projected to lessen to some extent over the next few years, but is still at historic highs
0:37
It means that this is a government ever since it has been with the Liz Truss budget days with the crosshairs of the markets at its back
0:46
James Carville, a Bill Clinton aide, once famously said that once if he ever were to die, he'd like to be reincarnated as the bond market
0:54
So powerful were they. This is a country which is having to adjust itself that we are one of those countries that must pay constant attention, partly as a result of Donald Trump's war in Iran and the inflation is baking into the system to what the bond markets wants
1:10
John Healy, I suspect, therefore, will be giving a budget which is quite in keeping with the man himself
1:16
No drama. Get through it. Try and get to the other side. And that is, curiously enough, despite the fact that the political situation and the economic situation to some extent seem a little bit more at variance than we might have imagined
1:30
In the sense that, though the economy isn't doing badly, but isn't exactly doing brilliantly, and the Chancellor isn't going to have a lot of room for manoeuvre this week
1:39
there are more and more whispers in Westminster about the possibility of an early general election
1:45
Andy Burnham embeds Labour's lead, which is built up since he became prime minister
1:50
Let's talk about that now with a new poll exclusively for this programme for LBC with Kieran Pedley, who's Ipsos director of politics
1:58
Kieran, tell us about what this poll says. So I think when we look at the headline numbers, Lewis, what we're seeing is something that we've seen in other numbers leading up to this month and also in the underlying data, too
2:07
which is the two main political parties, Labour and the Conservatives, reasserting themselves at the expense, it seems
2:14
of the two parties that have done them so much damage in the last year or so. So Labour are up five points, the Greens down five
2:20
Conservatives up three points, Reform down three points. And what that nets out at is Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives
2:26
and not Reform in second place. So a good set of numbers for Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch
2:32
So what we can clearly see now is that Burnham, A trend has emerged, hasn't it, Kieran, in terms of the polling we've seen since Burnham became Prime Minister
2:40
Burn and bounce is real. And indeed, the last few polls, if anything, seem to be suggesting that Labour are now in that sort of 30 percentage mark
2:47
which historically of course is nothing to write home about in particular But compared to where the party was in the dog days of Starmer is something Bade not getting a bit of a bounce herself but again still generally polling less than what Rishi Sunak got at the 2024 election
3:01
which was the worst Conservative election result in history. And a splintering of support of the so-called insurgents, i.e. Green and reform
3:09
Do we know or do you have much sense of why these trends have become trends
3:14
Well, on the big picture, what we're seeing is Labour are losing far fewer votes to the Greens than they were a year or so ago
3:21
And on the counterpoint, the Conservatives are losing much fewer votes to Reform UK too
3:25
I think both the Greens and Reform UK have had their own scandals of some kind. Zach Polanski obviously lost the Hobart-in-San-Pancras by election
3:32
But I think we've got two things going on. One is that Andy Burnham is really hoovering up the vote on the progressive left of British politics
3:38
If we imagine our politics as two blocks, if you like, on the left and the right
3:43
Labour are winning that informal primary for dominance of the left. And on the right, we've seen the underlying data show that the tectonic plates have been shifting
3:51
People are increasingly more likely to see the Conservatives rather than Reform UK as the principal opposition to Labour
3:58
The people quite like Kimmy Baden-Ock. Her net satisfaction rating as leader is minus four
4:03
It was minus 31 at the start of the year. So whilst nothing to write home about, the trajectory is very, very clear
4:08
So you're seeing that consolidation of support on the left and right with Labour and the Conservatives
4:13
Although it is true to say, isn't it, it might be a little bit premature, as I've seen already
4:17
endless sort of fevered column inches get themselves into to predict a sort of return to two-party politics
4:25
Because even with this poll, I mean, what are we at? We're at sort of like 56, 57 percent of the vote for Labour and Conservatives
4:31
By any historic standards, that is an anemic performance for the two parties put together
4:37
Yeah, we're basically at where we were pretty much at the last election in 2024
4:42
which, even on the Conservative side, they might be quite happy with being on 24% of the vote, given where they've been
4:47
But that was a historic general election defeat for them, of course. And Labour being in the 30s is a relatively new phenomenon
4:53
It's not just with Ipsos you see this. You see this with other pollsters, too. They got 34-35
4:57
They got 34-35. So, you know, there is something in this. Labour's number increasingly is beginning with a three
5:03
So that obviously confirms that the burn and bounce is real, as you say. But we live in extremely volatile political times
5:09
Six months ago, we were declaring the end of Labour and the Conservatives as governing forces, or at least on their own
5:14
So six months later, to say, well, that's just back now permanently would be very presumptuous, not least as we've got a very difficult budget
5:19
for the Chancellor, as you mentioned, coming up. If you were the Prime Minister looking at your poll
5:23
but also obviously looking at other polls as well, and they'll be doing their own, do you think this is a sort of territory..
5:28
There has been talk about the Prime Minister maybe going to the polls early, maybe next May, maybe even before that
5:34
Do you think this is the sort of territory that would make him feel comfortable in doing that? I think you want to see it sustained over a large period of time We certainly seen a good set of polls post conferences for Labour But this is only an eight lead We know that in 2017 Theresa May had a much larger lead
5:51
but she squandered in that general election. She was at 50% at one point. Exactly. 20 points ahead, I believe it was, going into that election
5:57
So far bigger leads have been squandered by political parties. You've got to have a very clear sense of what the message is
6:03
you're taking to the country. So I think that it is difficult right now to believe
6:08
that this election cycle is going to be in 2029, simply because some of the big picture items
6:13
the Prime Minister is talking about on social care and other things, to say that they're really important to the country
6:17
but we're going to wait till 2029 feels like a bit of a gap. But at the same time, I go back to the point
6:22
politics is really volatile at the moment. There may be tentative plans to have an election in early 2027
6:28
but if the budget lands badly and you end up behind in the polls again, are you really going to call it
6:32
And of course, almost certainly, even if they start to poll a bit better
6:36
maybe get to 33, 34, 35. It seems unlikely that Labour wouldn't lose scores of seats
6:42
given the high watermark that they were coming from in 24. Yes, this would very much be a project to win re-election of some kind
6:48
as opposed to necessarily retain that sort of landslide. Not a great sell for the parliamentary Labour Party
6:52
Yeah, the idea of a second landslide feels unlikely, but again, in volatile times
6:57
But at the same time, I think that Andy Burnham and the Labour Party will be very pleased where they are now
7:00
compared to where it was six months ago where the Greens were eating their vote all over the country
7:05
They were losing votes to reform as well. So there's definitely a sense of Labour are resurgent
7:10
But the permanence of that resurgency remains to be seen. I suppose one of the reasons why there may be people around the prime minister saying, well, you know, let's obviously wait and see
7:19
But there could be a case to say go next May. Is that the one of the big advantages the prime minister has is that you've alluded to it already, Kieran
7:28
He's starting to re-consolidate or coalesce the progressive vote around himself and around Labour again
7:36
And although Badenock is doing to some extent better and reformer doing to some extent worse, the right remains deeply, deeply divided
7:43
Indeed, we're at a historically very unusual point in the history of our parliamentary politics where the right is considerably more divided than the left is
7:50
That might not sustain. I mean, you know, if Badenock and the Conservatives do continue to do better and they reach a sort of tipping point when they're consistently polling ahead, then some of that reform vote might just think, well, actually, the best way of getting rid of Labour is just to go back to the Conservatives
8:04
And before you know where you are, you might find yourself quite nip and tuck with the Conservatives again. I mean, in British political history, you rarely lose money betting on the Conservative Party, to be honest
8:12
But what I would say is when you look at some of the issues based polling, there's pause for thought. So immigration remains the number one issue on our Epsos Issues Index when we ask the public in their own words
8:21
More than the economy? More than the economy still. When we ask them what, in their own words, are the most important issues facing the country, that's still an issue that Reform UK are most trusted on
8:30
They seen as having the best policies on that So this is part of why the right still divided I mean reform in our poll today much lower than it was a year ago but still on 20 Yeah still one in five still five points up or thereabouts on the last election But what crucial as we look ahead to the budget
8:45
so when we ask which party is most trusted on the economy, Labour and the Conservatives are
8:48
pretty much neck and neck with reform slightly further back. Where Labour leads the Tories still
8:53
by eight points is on the cost of living. So I think there's a delicate balancing act here on
8:57
the macro economic picture but Labour will also want to be reinforcing that message that you can
9:02
trust us most on the cost of living and some of those lower level things that Andy Burnham has
9:06
been doing in the last few months do appear to have cut through but you can interpret those
9:10
numbers in a couple of different ways the reality is nobody owns the economy as an issue so that's a
9:16
challenge for Labour it's an opportunity for the Conservatives maybe but it makes this budget
9:20
really really important. And you mentioned them but we've obviously just had their conference
9:24
which was pretty catastrophic in lots of ways for them. The Greens, which, you know, they've had a remarkable arc
9:31
They've had a remarkable sort of character development story over the course of the year
9:34
They started off as a sort of coming force. They were, I think, to be fair to Polanski
9:39
pretty instrumental in Starmer's downfall. You know, were it not for the Gorton and Denton by-election
9:45
were it not for the fear of urban Labour MPs who were not really worried about their seats for a long time
9:51
worried about the Greens. It feels unlikely to me Starmer would have gone. And yet, what does the polling say about where they are now
9:57
It seems to have disappeared almost as quickly as it came. Also, our current voting attention poll has the Greens on 8%, down 5% on last month
10:04
But that is one poll. A lot of polls, you see them in the low single digits as well. But you're right, this is much worse than they were six months ago
10:10
I think what would worry the Greens, I think, is that 56% of the public are dissatisfied
10:15
with the job that Zapolanski is doing as leader of the Greens. Which has been a precipitous fall, hasn't it? I mean, very, very rapidly
10:20
Well, that's the highest level since he became leader. And it's not a million miles off the 64% that are dissatisfied
10:25
with a job Nigel Farage is doing as leader of Reform UK. So it's not quite the same
10:30
But it's not a million miles off saying that, you know, Zach Polanski is as toxic with the elements of the electorate
10:34
as Nigel Farage is. So they've had a bad few months. It's very, very clear. But again, we live in volatile times
10:39
I hate to be boring and say that. This budget is going to be a challenge for the government
10:43
Maybe there's an opportunity for the Greens back. And just very briefly, Kieran, we never really talk about them
10:46
but the biggest third party of British politics at a parliamentary level since the 1920s
10:51
Lib Dems? Has anyone even mentioned them at all these days? Well, the funny thing about the Lib Dems is no one
10:57
does seem to pay much attention to them. You get a lot of don't knows when you ask about Ed Davey. They're on
11:01
sort of rounds. Well, he hasn't jumped off a you know, hasn't done any paragliding recently
11:06
or something like that. He needs to get back on that stuff. But, you know, they're around the sort of 10
11:09
mark and we know that they tend to do a little bit better when a general election comes and their
11:13
support is very geographically concentrated. So, you know, it could well be
11:17
that if they retain 50 seats. Sounds like first past the post is quite good for them. Very good for them
11:21
If they could retain 50, 60 seats, they could be the kingmaker at the next general election. Who knows
11:25
Kieran Pedley, Ipsos Director of Politics with that exclusive poll for LBC
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