Up next in 10
Keir Starmer has been sensationally ousted less than two years into his premiership. As the Labour party prepares for a swift coronation of Andy Burnham, the UK faces a massive structural shift. But behind the promises of a "new dawn," a brutal economic reality is waiting.
With public borrowing figures looking catastrophic, inflation set to spike, and unemployment rising, Burnham's incoming government is walking straight into an economic nightmare. Experts are already warning that to fund his agenda, the new Prime Minister will have to make a choice that will devastate millions: take the axe to welfare, or end the pensions Triple Lock.
#TaxRaid #TripleLock #PensionCrisis #WealthProtection
0:00 – The Defenestration of Keir Starmer
1:42 – Why Starmer’s "Decent Politics" Failed So Fast
3:55 – Andy Burnham & The Northern Magic Myth
5:00 – The Looming Inflation & Unemployment Spike
6:37 – Coronation vs. Scrutiny: A Left-Wing Coup?
7:02 – Will Burnham Axe the Triple Lock & Welfare?
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0:00
So, it has happened. Keir Starmer will
0:02
be stepping down as PM, and it looks
0:04
like it could be just a few weeks before
0:07
Andy Burnham is installed in number 10.
0:09
Joining us to make sense of all of this
0:11
is our editor-in-chief, Christian May.
0:13
Welcome back, Christian.
0:14
>> Thank you. I'm beginning to get the
0:15
sense that you only wheel me out on
0:17
particularly punchy news days. There's a
0:19
threshold, isn't there?
0:20
>> Mhm. Well, luckily, quite a few days in
0:23
the year cross that threshold now. We're
0:25
in pretty exciting times. We like to
0:26
keep our powder dry for the big days.
0:28
>> All right.
0:28
>> Obviously, Andy Burnham looks like he's
0:30
going to be the man of the hour, but
0:31
before we get on to him, let's talk
0:33
about yesterday's man, Keir Starmer. Of
0:35
the 58 prime ministers that we've we've
0:37
now had since we've had prime ministers,
0:40
where do you think history will rank Sir
0:42
Keir Starmer?
0:42
>> Okay, I'll go through them all one by
0:44
one.
0:45
Um and now
0:46
Like I just earlier on today, I went and
0:48
reread the first speech Starmer gave on
0:51
the steps of Downing Street the day
0:52
after the 2024 election. Very nearly 2
0:55
years ago, a little under 2 years ago.
0:57
And I have to say it's a very good
0:58
speech. It's very well written. And in
1:01
that, he says that
1:03
his will be a government devoted to the
1:05
service of the public, etc. Well, that's
1:06
very good. They all say that. And then
1:08
he said specifically that this will be a
1:10
government that treads more lightly on
1:13
people's lives, that ends the carousel
1:16
of chaos, that returns stability and
1:19
decency and grown-up politics to the
1:21
nation.
1:22
And of course, he has failed to deliver
1:25
that and is a victim of that failure now
1:27
because just under 2 years into office,
1:29
he's been slung out. Now, there is this
1:31
school of thought that that says
1:34
that Starmer's defenestration is just
1:36
the latest example proof point that
1:38
Britain is effectively ungovernable,
1:40
that our politics is too divided, that
1:42
our problems are too deep.
1:44
I do not subscribe to that view. I think
1:47
to do so would be to absolve politicians
1:50
and political parties of their
1:51
responsibility. What's happened here is
1:53
Starmer has been thrown out because his
1:55
own inadequacies have caught up with
1:57
him.
1:58
We have talked at C M for a very long
2:01
time, almost as long as Starmer has been
2:02
Prime Minister, about
2:04
our grave concerns over the lack of a
2:06
plan, the problems with their economic
2:08
policy, their priorities, the
2:10
contradictions, if you like, at the
2:11
heart of the Labour Parliamentary Party
2:13
that meant they can't do any of the
2:15
necessary economic reforms that this
2:17
country requires. He's not up to it. He
2:20
has been found to have been not up to
2:22
it, and his party, whilst you know,
2:25
Labour MPs that wanted to get rid of him
2:27
might take a different analysis to the
2:29
reasons why I was disappointed with him
2:31
as Prime Minister. They have decided
2:33
that he was not up to the job. He
2:35
failed. Um, and that is why he is gone.
2:37
And I do think that
2:39
our problems are not insurmountable, and
2:41
that a good leader who is better at
2:43
politics than Keir Starmer, but is able
2:45
to sense the mood of the nation, um, for
2:48
all its divisions and different
2:50
political flavors, um, should be able to
2:52
have done better than Starmer has
2:54
managed to do. And because he's done so
2:55
badly, he is out.
2:57
>> He's burned a lot of political capital
2:59
very early with your winter fuel
3:01
payments and other kind of scandal-type
3:04
stories like your Lord Alli's glasses
3:06
and sort of thing, right, quite early in
3:08
his leadership. Um,
3:10
but for Burnham, the arithmetic, both
3:13
fiscally and politically, won't change.
3:16
You know, the the economy isn't
3:18
motoring, and the Parliamentary Labour
3:20
Party is in no mood for cuts, tax cuts,
3:23
welfare cuts, defense spending, all that
3:26
stuff. So, can he somehow work his
3:29
northern magic to change that arithmetic
3:32
in any way?
3:33
>> I'd be very surprised if he manages to
3:35
achieve that. I wish him well. You know,
3:37
we wish our governments and Prime
3:38
Ministers well for all of our sakes. Um,
3:41
he will discover that being Prime
3:42
Minister, particularly at a time like
3:44
this, is very, very different to being a
3:46
regional mayor, where you just get to
3:47
announce things and sign checks, uh, and
3:50
things. Um,
3:52
the
3:53
he will try to present the sort of a new
3:56
dawn has broken, has it not, moment. And
3:59
he will discover there's not a new dawn,
4:00
it's Groundhog Day. That the country
4:02
still faces a terrible rate of economic
4:05
growth, that there is still a a fairly
4:07
punishing cost-of-living crisis, that
4:09
inflation is going to get higher before
4:11
it gets lower, that unemployment is
4:13
rising and will rise again before it
4:15
starts to come down. The problems are
4:17
very real. Um,
4:19
the public borrowing figures are
4:21
appalling. And that should be, you know,
4:24
grounds for pause for thought for
4:25
somebody who, if he has any policies at
4:28
the moment, seem to involve
4:29
nationalizing large swathes of British
4:31
industry and subsidizing what he doesn't
4:33
nationalize. So, he's going to come into
4:36
office as if he's got this growing
4:38
economy and all these levers to pull and
4:40
we we just sort of shake things up a bit
4:43
and do things differently, will achieve
4:44
different results. But he will face, as
4:46
you said, Martin, the same parliamentary
4:48
arithmetic. Look what happened the last
4:51
time uh,
4:53
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves tried to
4:54
shave 5 billion pounds off the 300
4:56
billion pound welfare bill, annual
4:59
welfare bill. The Labour MPs said, "No.
5:02
That's not what we're here for." Now,
5:04
there are some encouraging signs. Wes
5:06
Streeting gave a speech last week which
5:07
I thought was very interesting. I
5:08
thought it was genuinely very
5:10
intellectually coherent and quite
5:11
stimulating in a number of regards from
5:13
City AM's perspective. I didn't agree
5:15
with all of it, um, but coming from the
5:17
mouth of a Labour MP and potentially a
5:19
future Labour Chancellor, I thought it
5:21
was very encouraging. But how he squares
5:23
that sort of Blairite Chancellor in
5:25
number 11, if that's what he does, with
5:27
the fact that some of the most loony
5:28
left MPs in Labour are cheering his
5:31
arrival, um, from the north down into
5:33
the capital, I don't know. He will face
5:35
great political difficulties, uh, and he
5:37
will continue to face some very
5:39
challenging economic conditions.
5:41
>> On the topic of Wes Streeting, he's
5:42
folded in behind Burnham's campaign and
5:44
that makes it look overwhelmingly likely
5:46
that we're looking at a coronation, not
5:48
a contest. There's a school of thought
5:49
that actually avoiding a contest is
5:51
quite a good thing. We get a lot of
5:53
stability and we know what's going to
5:54
happen early on. There's also a school
5:56
of thought which is that there's going
5:56
to be very little scrutiny on someone
5:58
who's been an MP for about 24 hours.
6:00
What do you make of
6:02
Burnham potentially coming in with no
6:04
contest at all?
6:05
>> I can understand the um attraction from
6:08
Labour's perspective,
6:09
not least Burnham's supporters
6:11
perspective, to have what he's already
6:13
referred to today as an orderly transfer
6:15
of power.
6:17
A very polite coup language. This is
6:19
effectively a left-wing coup, by the
6:21
way. That's what's happened here.
6:23
Um and I can understand the rationale
6:25
for trying to get it all sewn up and
6:26
done done away with quite nicely in time
6:29
for the summer holiday, uh so that he
6:30
can have a, you know, a great bounce um
6:33
post-summer holiday and into the Labour
6:35
Party conference. But he will still face
6:37
these extraordinary challenges. And you
6:40
know, we hear from the likes of Jim
6:41
O'Neill, former Goldman Sachs uh top
6:44
dog, who's been involved in policy and
6:46
politics for a while now. Um he's
6:48
we understand been advising Andy
6:50
Burnham. Um and he said, I heard on the
6:53
radio this morning, he needs to be
6:55
realistic. He needs to, if he wants to
6:57
borrow more and spend more to invest
6:59
more, that's only doable if you take the
7:01
axe to welfare, if you end the triple
7:03
lock, if you take some of these
7:05
decisions. And, as he put it, if you're
7:07
leading, if you prepared to lead and to
7:09
say to people, "This is why we have to
7:10
do this. Come with me." Which is not
7:12
something Starmer was ever able to
7:14
uh manage. But I hope Andy Burnham has
7:16
more success in that direction, but
7:19
I'd be very surprised.
7:20
>> Well, Chris Youmbi,
7:22
uh unless you've been nationalized by
7:24
the next time you come back into the
7:25
studio, we'll
7:26
>> Or subsidized.
7:27
>> [laughter]
7:28
>> Hopefully the latter.
7:30
Uh we look forward to seeing you again,
7:31
but for now that's all we have time for.
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