Up next in 10
The UK is facing a historic political meltdown. With Keir Starmer exiting Downing Street, prime ministerial biographer Sir Anthony Seldon joins us to assess the collapse of political stability in Britain.
From the vulnerability of the triple lock pension to Nigel Farage’s tactical plan to trigger market rebellion, Seldon breaks down the compounding crises facing the incoming Burnham government, and why Britain could be headed toward a chaotic coalition.
#NigelFarage #UKPolitics #AndyBurnham #PensionCrisis #CityAM #KeirStarmer #BritishEconomy
0:00 - Will Farage trigger a market rebellion?
1:18 - How Keir Starmer blew a historic landslide
2:34 - Why UK Prime Ministers lost control of Whitehall
4:15 - "If Burnham burns, Britain will burn"
5:40 - The looming threat to your Triple Lock Pension
7:10 - Seldon's warning: Can the UK survive the next 4 weeks?
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0:00
Not in any other profession would the
0:02
inexperience and the tribalism be
0:04
tolerated. We need maturity, stability.
0:07
This is very serious.
0:09
>> It will be seven prime ministers in 10
0:11
years.
0:13
The pressure on governments to deliver
0:15
good outcomes for British citizens has
0:17
perhaps never been greater.
0:20
>> I will shortly leave the job that it has
0:22
been the honor of my life to hold. I do
0:25
so with no ill will, but with enormous
0:28
and enduring gratitude to have had the
0:30
opportunity to serve the country I love.
0:34
>> We've got a financial crisis, an
0:35
economic crisis, a political crisis, a
0:36
social crisis, a technological crisis,
0:38
identity crisis, geopolitical crisis. If
0:42
Burnham burns,
0:44
Britain will burn.
0:45
>> With Sir Keir Starmer announcing he will
0:47
leave Downing Street as soon as
0:49
mid-July, the sense that this country
0:51
has become ungovernable seems hard to
0:54
shake off.
0:55
>> So, the great prime ministers are all
0:58
great storytellers. And it might be uh
1:01
really tricky getting there, and
1:02
there'll be incredible pain, and I'm
1:03
really sorry, but we're going to have to
1:04
get rid of of the triple lock, we're
1:06
going to have to do this and that and
1:07
that and that, and you're going to hate
1:08
it, [music] you're going to hate me, but
1:10
we're going to get through, and we're
1:11
going to go to better periods. That's
1:12
what the storyteller does.
1:13
>> You might be left wondering how we got
1:15
here. Joining me in the studio is
1:16
Anthony Seldon, the chief biographer of
1:19
many prime ministers from Liz Truss all
1:21
the way to John Major.
1:24
Welcome to City A.M.
1:26
>> Yeah, let's start with this.
1:28
>> Let's let's start with Brexit because
1:30
you've obviously edited this book with
1:33
30 to 40 authors from all sides of
1:36
Brexit debate, people working across
1:38
government policy.
1:40
I mean, when you're looking reading
1:42
through all those chapters and extracts
1:44
and looking through all the different
1:45
arguments around the Brexit referendum
1:48
debate, where do you actually think
1:50
Brexit as a an issue ranks across all
1:53
the other issues that have come up and
1:55
faced different prime ministers.
1:58
>> So, it's torn the Tory party apart and
2:02
has yet to tear the Labour party apart
2:05
as it did back in the 1950s
2:09
uh and for a time in the '60s. So,
2:13
it it is a deeply divisive issue going
2:18
into our notions of patriotism, I
2:21
identity, race,
2:26
sovereignty.
2:28
It's also deeply deceiving.
2:31
And the lack of honesty stands out to me
2:34
as the most significant
2:36
>> Where is that honesty from? Where is the
2:38
dishonesty from? Dishonesty has come
2:41
from people who want to
2:43
persuade other people of the rightness
2:46
either for remain or for
2:48
leaving. And now they're clinging onto
2:51
it. It's like, you know, believers in
2:53
Arsenal
2:54
uh
2:55
or Liverpool um
2:57
and or Chelsea. It it it is not a
3:01
rational
3:03
uh
3:04
commitment.
3:05
And it's it's not simple. It's not that
3:09
one issue is one side is right on
3:12
everything and the other side is wrong.
3:14
But what they both share is a deep and
3:16
profound and continuing dishonesty.
3:20
>> Labour came into power with this sort of
3:23
um hokey-pokey
3:25
in, out on some areas of the EU trade,
3:28
out on some other areas such as AI.
3:31
Those red lines exist today, but Andy
3:34
Burnham has spoken about wanting to
3:36
rejoin the European Union, which street
3:38
saying in this
3:40
>> [sighs]
3:41
>> But look, I mean,
3:43
what people say, I mean, come on. You
3:45
know this. That that what what
3:47
politicians say is not what they do.
3:52
They Once they get into power, so many
3:55
Prime Ministers have been weak. Starmer
3:57
had massive, unimaginable strength
4:00
potentially when he came to power, 403
4:02
MPs. I mean, goodness gracious. I mean,
4:04
the second biggest Labour landslide in
4:06
history, the third biggest of any party
4:08
in history, taking over from a
4:12
demoralized, degraded Conservative Party
4:15
with barely 100 MPs and with the right
4:17
split. I mean, come on. It would have
4:19
What a extraordinary opportunity. It is
4:22
a fabulously interesting question to
4:24
know how he blew it so quickly.
4:27
>> that a question you're going to write
4:29
about?
4:29
>> and what does Farage want? I mean,
4:30
Farage wants to keep
4:33
Labour split, wants to keep the
4:34
Conservatives split.
4:37
Uh, and Farage is a supreme tactician
4:40
and what he wants is for Ed Miliband to
4:43
be appointed
4:45
uh, Chancellor or somebody else on the
4:48
center left of the party for the markets
4:50
to rebel, for there to be
4:52
a call for a general election, Labour
4:54
unable, um,
4:57
Burnham unable to hold the government
4:58
together, a general election from which
5:01
he will prosper saying that, "Look,
5:03
neither the left wing nor the right wing
5:05
of the party have succeeded." I mean,
5:08
this is so significant cuz for 14 years
5:10
we had repeated disappointing Prime
5:13
Ministers. I mean, look, I think some of
5:15
them, I think Rishi Sunak, for example,
5:17
did much better than people expected
5:19
like John Major did. No one accepted at
5:20
the time, but people accepted in
5:22
hindsight. But,
5:23
um, people The perception was that they
5:25
were fighting each other. Labour had
5:28
this blessed opportunity to come in and
5:30
say, "We're different." But actually,
5:32
Labour has shown that it's no different.
5:34
And this is a gift to Farage. So,
5:38
uh, Farage wants them split
5:40
and then he comes in and he uses his
5:42
immense power, power that they did not
5:45
use um, to do what Trump's I mean look
5:49
Prime Ministers are either have the
5:51
initiative or they don't have the
5:52
initiative. Most of the time for the
5:54
last since 2007
5:57
Prime Ministers have not had the
5:58
initiative. They've been on the back
6:00
foot. And they're going to be unpopular
6:02
either because they're doing stuff or
6:04
because they're not doing stuff like the
6:05
leader of any organization. So you
6:07
better be better to be popular because
6:09
you're doing stuff rather than not doing
6:11
stuff like I mean that was that was
6:13
Starmer's undoing wasn't all those
6:15
>> I turns.
6:15
>> I wonder whether you're you're already
6:17
starting to write the first chapters of
6:19
your
6:20
>> Yeah, I mean I I don't want to write it.
6:22
I mean you know,
6:25
there have been Baldwin's book
6:28
Pocock and Maguire.
6:31
You know, I honestly I I couldn't think
6:33
of anything I'd like to do less than go
6:35
through the intricacies of the NEC and
6:37
all those micro decisions decisions is
6:39
only one really important question that
6:43
interests me rather like with the Liz
6:44
Truss book subtitle how not to be Prime
6:46
Minister.
6:47
How did that happen? How could she have
6:49
been the shortest on 49 days Prime
6:51
Minister in British history and the
6:53
question for Starmer is how can you
6:55
explode again unprecedented in British
6:58
history? How do you explain that? I mean
7:00
that is the historical question. I don't
7:02
want to you know, go through everything
7:05
that he did because I don't have the
7:07
appetite. I mean I wouldn't read it. I
7:08
can't imagine anybody else would.
7:10
>> You've re-touched on Burnham there and
7:12
you've obviously speaking about the
7:13
characteristics of good leadership.
7:16
I actually wanted to actually still stay
7:18
on Starmer.
7:20
Is there a space for a Keir Starmer in a
7:22
Burnham government? On the In the In the
7:24
past you've talked about Tony Blair
7:25
becoming be You said Tony Blair should
7:28
be appointed Foreign Secretary. Lord
7:29
Cameron was in the cabinet under Rishi
7:32
Sunak.
7:33
>> I think Foreign Secretary is slightly
7:34
different post because the Foreign
7:35
Secretary represents Britain. I mean
7:37
back in the day the Prime Minister was
7:39
often the Foreign Secretary and even
7:42
further back in the day they were the
7:43
Chancellor of the Exchequer. They're
7:44
still the First Lord of the Treasury.
7:46
So, there's a role particularly I think
7:47
for the for a PM to be Foreign Secretary
7:49
because they can then talk head to
7:52
former head of state to current head of
7:54
state, head of government.
7:56
And it's a different kind of role. It's
7:58
a less party political. They're clearly
8:00
representing the whole nation, not just
8:01
your own
8:03
party. And I think there is a lack of
8:07
respect for
8:08
experience and wisdom. I mean, look. The
8:11
five Prime Ministers up to Boris
8:14
Johnson, do you know how many
8:15
departments they worked in?
8:18
Yes, of course you do. It's three. The
8:20
five before that, do you know how many
8:21
they worked in?
8:22
23. The five before that, going back to
8:26
Churchill, 38. So, between them, they
8:29
were averaging some seven or eight
8:31
departments. They knew what they were
8:33
doing. They knew the way that Whitehall
8:35
worked. And they knew who to rely on,
8:39
smart civil servants who would get the
8:41
job done for them.
8:43
And so,
8:45
the collapsing of experience.
8:47
And I think Starmer is I mean, Starmer
8:49
is honest, decent, hard-working,
8:52
principled.
8:53
Not very imaginative, not very curious.
8:56
But of course he would add great
8:57
authority. And when Cameron came back in
9:01
October 23,
9:03
I mean, people marveled in cabinet to
9:05
see what a grown-up was like in cabinet.
9:09
You know, somebody who didn't need to
9:10
lean on special advisers to tell them
9:13
what to say and and do. I mean, someone
9:15
who actually knew their own mind. Wow,
9:17
what a weird idea.
9:19
And I think that
9:21
I think that as I suggested in the piece
9:24
in The Times today that
9:25
Banner would be much stronger for
9:27
bringing back, you know, two, three
9:30
figures from the Blair-Brown days who
9:33
could lend a gravitas and a poise and a
9:36
wisdom. Amazing women and amazing men
9:39
are up there. Why not use them?
9:41
>> So, Starmer for foreign secretary,
9:42
perhaps, or another Is there another
9:44
role
9:46
>> Well, I mean, Starmer's done you know,
9:47
he's done well. And and
9:50
Look,
9:52
I mean, foreign secretary is is about
9:54
personal relationships.
9:55
At to an extraordinary degree that we
9:58
perhaps don't think about enough. Um
10:01
if you get on with somebody,
10:04
um so uh Rishi Sunak got on with
10:07
actually went to Lyon. Um
10:10
uh
10:11
Cameron got on with Georgia Meloni. I
10:13
mean,
10:14
when you when these relationships work
10:16
well, I mean, Blair managed to change
10:19
from being really super close to Clinton
10:21
and then to
10:23
completely different human being,
10:25
character, personality, party, policy
10:28
uh of Bush 43. And you know, it's about
10:30
personal relationships, and they take
10:33
time to form.
10:34
And the relationships with Zelensky and
10:38
uh and across Europe, across uh you
10:42
would see with Modi in in South America,
10:45
in
10:46
in on the hill, and and in the White
10:49
House. So,
10:50
uh yeah, I think there's a case of
10:52
bringing people back. And I think
10:53
Starmer would be a great asset, and he
10:56
would serve loyally. Um and he would be
10:59
a source of strength. And you know, it's
11:01
going to be far more difficult for
11:02
Burnham than people imagine.
11:05
You know, there's a kind of haze that
11:07
that that a purple haze that takes over
11:10
from people when the new
11:11
uh prime minister comes in. There
11:13
there's the feeling that the previous
11:15
regimes were useless, really. Didn't
11:17
know how to do it, but we know how to do
11:18
it because what, you know, we've worked
11:20
up in Manchester, or or we've been a
11:22
special adviser for a couple of years,
11:24
and we can come in and
11:26
and we've helped our person. No, no, no.
11:28
I mean, not in any other profession
11:31
would you
11:32
uh would the inexperience and the
11:34
tribalism be tolerated. We need
11:36
maturity, stability. This is very
11:39
serious. We've got a financial crisis,
11:41
an economic crisis, political crisis,
11:42
social crisis, technological crisis,
11:44
identity crisis, geopolitical crisis.
11:47
This is, you know,
11:48
if Burnham burns,
11:51
Britain will burn.
11:53
It is desperately serious. He needs the
11:56
very best at his disposal.
11:58
And then if he's smart and if he does
12:00
the key things that the Prime Minister
12:01
needs to do, and what are they? They are
12:04
PM's first Lord of the Treasury.
12:06
Husband the country's finances, get
12:08
growth, get employment, read the Milburn
12:10
report. It's not that difficult to do.
12:12
Secondly, defense, keep
12:15
defense, third, law and order, keep the
12:17
the borders, keep people feeling safe in
12:19
the cities and towns in which they live.
12:22
And if he does that
12:24
and gets growth, gets government's money
12:26
back under control, particularly
12:27
welfare, people will hate him in the
12:30
party, but
12:32
the party will then recognize that
12:33
actually he's doing well in the polls
12:35
and he's cutting the ground from under
12:37
the feet of Farage.
12:40
And they'll start coming back and maybe
12:41
he's not, you know, maybe this guy knows
12:43
what he's doing a bit. If he tries to be
12:44
popular, does Mancunian stuff and and
12:48
lots of other wizzy stuff that he is
12:51
team think going to transform the
12:53
country, it will not work.
12:55
He will not work. The country will be in
12:57
more trouble. There will be a Farage
13:01
government or a coalition government.
13:02
It'll be messy.
13:03
>> That's a very clear diagnosis and
13:05
reading you today in The Times,
13:08
you talk about actually also the Prime
13:10
Minister needs to tell a story and and
13:12
be able to convince the electorate. But
13:14
the electorate won't budge on the big
13:17
sort of handovers of welfare, especially
13:21
the triple lock pension, things that all
13:24
economists will tell you is sort of
13:26
unsustainable. That's not the only thing
13:29
winter fuel payments, you know, perhaps
13:31
a small amount of money had to be
13:33
U-turned on despite it trying to be a
13:35
position of difficulty for the Prime
13:37
Minister Starmer at first make. So,
13:41
actually
13:43
where where does that link up? You know,
13:45
the real problems within the country,
13:48
the debt crisis and
13:49
>> Okay.
13:50
>> the defense crisis with
13:52
>> So, the great Prime Ministers are all
13:55
great storytellers. The great leaders of
13:57
any organization, the great
14:00
There's an England game tonight. The
14:01
great football managers will tell a
14:03
story about where the team has been and
14:05
where it's where it's going to be going.
14:06
I mean, it is obvious. I mean, stories
14:09
go back to tens, hundreds, and thousands
14:12
of years in in the human psyche. We need
14:15
to feel that we have confidence that
14:16
someone is telling us a story about how
14:19
they're going to take us to better
14:20
place. And it might be uh really tricky
14:23
getting there. And they'll be incredible
14:24
pain and I'm really sorry, but we're
14:26
going to have to get rid of the triple
14:27
lock. We're going to have to do this and
14:28
that and that and that. And you're going
14:29
to hate it. You're going to hate me.
14:32
And but we're going to get through. And
14:34
we're going to go to better periods.
14:35
That's what a storyteller does because
14:36
it then you then You know, Starmer
14:38
didn't have a context for the tough
14:40
stuff that he was doing. It was just
14:42
like, "This Well, this is this is very
14:44
mean and it's not what you voted on."
14:46
Uh uh and it didn't make sense. So, had
14:48
he
14:51
I do blame Starmer for being so
14:53
uncurious. And I would also blame
14:55
McSweeney for being so uncurious
14:58
incurious [snorts] indeed, whatever the
15:00
word is, uh
15:01
>> [laughter]
15:02
>> about how how the Prime Minister's job
15:04
works, how number 10 works.
15:06
It is not a rocket science to learn how
15:08
to be Prime Minister. Show some
15:11
humility. Learn what to do, what not to
15:15
do.
15:16
And go for that. And learn how to use
15:19
your time because otherwise people are
15:21
just going to come in and they're going
15:22
to ditzy your head because you've got on
15:25
any day you've got 15 times more things
15:27
to do potentially than this time
15:29
available. The shrewd people, they don't
15:31
get over tired. They're very smart.
15:34
They're doing the important things, the
15:35
things that only the PM can do.
15:38
>> I think to end on
15:39
taking all of that into
15:42
together
15:43
and those divides that you were seeing
15:44
in the country and that need to tell a
15:47
good story to be more curious and to
15:50
sort of take the electorate with you.
15:52
You actually hopeful that anyone can do
15:53
that is I'm not talking about Burnham,
15:55
but any sort of the political class and
15:58
the figures we see today.
16:00
>> [snorts]
16:01
>> In a general sense, do you think that is
16:04
a realistic thing that could happen?
16:07
Prime Minister comes in, solves the
16:09
issues, takes the electorate with them.
16:11
>> I think Burnham has the ability. I mean,
16:13
we know that he doesn't know what he
16:15
thinks on
16:16
the EU,
16:18
the economy, and on welfare, and on
16:21
foreign policy, and defense policy. I
16:23
mean, he's
16:24
on AI and technology, but
16:26
um he does have
16:30
uh real qualities. He's a communicator.
16:32
He's a human being.
16:33
He he is somebody transparently
16:36
who is worthy of trust and he's shown
16:39
that. The most important thing in
16:40
Manchester is he's shown that he is a
16:43
trustworthy
16:44
decent human being with the ability to
16:47
communicate. The key days now are what
16:51
happens to him in the next two, three,
16:53
four weeks. Who he Who does he listen
16:55
to?
16:56
And
16:57
look, it's a very hackneyed
17:00
analogy, but it's a very true analogy.
17:02
If somebody leaves the Port of London
17:04
and they're going to the Hook Hook of
17:06
Holland and you then start, you know,
17:09
going south, you are you know, or if you
17:11
don't know where you're going, it will
17:13
fail. He just has a very narrow target
17:17
to aim for and he has to be incredibly
17:20
clear that it's about the economy,
17:21
stupid. It is about getting expenditure
17:24
down. It is about sorting out defense,
17:27
which by the way is not just a question
17:28
of putting more money on it. The defense
17:30
budget could be so much better spent
17:32
like it is in France, which is able to
17:34
do more with less percentage of of spend
17:36
than we have in Britain. So, if he does
17:38
the important things first, uh then he
17:41
will win a general election and he can
17:43
then do the things that um uh that that
17:47
that will be truer to the Labour Party
17:50
and he will also undercut uh reform. So,
17:54
uh
17:55
it's going to be tough and and we will
17:58
know uh we will know in the same way
18:00
when you when you were Starmer three,
18:02
four weeks in that this was going to end
18:03
in tears, we'll know in three or four
18:06
weeks' time uh whether Burnham is going
18:10
to make the same mistake. And I just
18:11
hope so, you know, we all love this
18:13
country. And we all want him to succeed.
18:17
We just hope that he is wise and listens
18:19
to the
18:20
right people and above all, you know
18:22
what the most important thing for him to
18:23
do?
18:24
Every day, read City A.M.
18:27
>> Exactly.
18:27
>> Can't go wrong.
18:28
>> Exactly.
18:29
>> Slam dunk.
18:30
>> If he needs to know any of the financial
18:31
news, business news, and wants to work
18:34
with private sector, then City A.M. is
18:36
the one to read. Thank you so much for
18:38
joining us, uh
18:39
>> Thank you for having me as well.
18:40
>> Lovely to speak to you as always and
18:42
good timing as well for this interview.
18:45
>> Thank you.
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