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LBC's Nick Ferrari gets the best pollsters in Britain together to explain why Nigel Farage's party keep struggling in by-elections. 00:00 UK Director of More in Common, Luke Tryl. 03:12 Political Scientist, Professor Sir John Curtice. 08:58 Co-founder of Deltapoll, Joe Twyman. Andy Burnham swept to victory in the Makerfield by-election and is now set to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. The Mayor of Greater Manchester won the keenly contested by-election in Wigan - beating a challenge from Reform's Robert Kenyon. He received 24,927 votes to storm past Mr Kenyon, who received 15,696 votes. The figures give Mr Burnham a huge majority. After a brief interruption from a protester, Mr Burnham took to the stage to give a rousing victory speech. Opening, the newly elected MP declared: "Everyone knows that politics is not working. Tonight could be the turning point." Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #nickferrari #ukpolitics #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
You know, this was a clear target seat, one of their top target seats, exactly the sort of constituency that's been trending away from Labour and to them
0:08
As you yourself say, Luke, they did exceptionally well there six weeks ago
0:13
And yet, not only here, but in other places as well tonight, it's actually one of the worst nights, it seems to me, since the party was founded, electorally speaking
0:22
Oh, I totally agree. And certainly their worst night since the general election
0:26
They made basically no progress here in their seat, which, as you say, well, they didn't just make no progress since the general election
0:34
They went backwards from the local elections on what was their 13th best second place in 2024
0:43
They really should be winning here. But to add to their woes and what I think makes it a particularly bad night was, OK, you know, restore weren't the margin between them and Labour
0:53
but they still got 7%. If that were replicated elsewhere, that would cost reform. And on top of
1:00
that, in that by-election in Aberdeen South, the fact that the Conservatives won basically allowed
1:07
them to show proof of life and that the battle for the right isn't over. So pretty much every
1:12
result, every aspect of the result went wrong for reform here. And I think they're going to have to
1:19
do a lot of soul-searching about why it's gone so wrong and what they need to do to reconnect
1:26
Because, you know, it really is. There is no gloss that you can put on this set of results for reform
1:33
They have underperformed. And meanwhile, their rivals on their right in their own block have overperformed
1:39
Well, I was going to say just briefly and finally, Luke, I was going to say that we're talking a lot about Makerfield
1:44
There were three other, there were three by-elections in total. one in our growth that need not detain us too much was an smp hole pretty unremarkable but you've
1:52
already alluded to it the result in aberdeen south which the conservatives won and again won
1:56
handsomely with 50 of the vote we've talked a lot haven't we not just you and i but the whole of
2:01
british politics has talked a lot about the death of the old two parties well on the basis of
2:07
tonight's results and they could be sui generous they could be unusual they could be exceptions
2:11
but there's life in the old dogs, yeah, at least for now. Well, absolutely, yeah
2:16
If this was a bad night for reform, it was a good night for the traditional two parties
2:22
I guess the one thing I would say, which proves we are still very definitely in a multi-party system
2:28
was that it was actually four different parties who were the top two in those two different seats
2:34
So Makerfield, it was reform. Labour, Tories didn't even hold their deposit
2:38
So in Aberdeen South, it was Tories and the SNP with Labour barely holding their deposits
2:44
So it still a multi picture but definitely one of the best nights for the big two that I can remember It just shows that actually you know we not just in an era of fragmented politics we in an era of volatile politics and particularly in an era of voting against
3:00
parties as well. Particularly, I think there was a lot of tactical voting in Aberdeen
3:05
And that just makes for a much more messy, unpredictable electoral landscape, but I guess
3:10
the type of nights that you and I like quite a lot. How much is the result, which is massive, down to the fact that he effectively is a local boy
3:18
He's got Manchester virtually next to him, which I don't live there, but it's perceived to have run quite well
3:23
And he's actually got some quite high personal rating figures. So, John, good morning. Yeah, that's all part of the mixture
3:30
And certainly, you know, his personal popularity, particularly in Manchester and his reputation as a mayor
3:35
is one of the reasons why he is able to reach sections of the electorate
3:42
that other Labour candidates and certainly other Labour leaders seem unable to reach
3:49
And I think essentially there are three groups there that you can see him profiting from
3:53
One, of course, is that around half the people who voted Labour in 2024
3:57
are still willing to vote Labour again, so they would vote for Andy Burnham
4:03
But then secondly, Mr. Burnham was also able to present himself as the challenger to his party by making it quite clear he's willing to challenge Andy Burnham
4:14
So all those people are unhappy about Sir Keir Starmer, many of whom we know are much happier about Andy Burnham
4:23
being faced with the prospect of him potentially becoming Labour leader even if they might
4:32
otherwise have voted for the Greens or the Democrats or whatever they also seem to have
4:37
ended up in Andy Burnham's camp and then of course he will also profit from the fact that
4:43
some people who might again vote Green, Liberal Democrat or even Conservative but didn't want
4:49
reform to win, again, would also be willing potentially to vote for Mr Burnham in order to
4:56
keep reform out, particularly again, given the various ways in which Mr Burnham has a reasonably
5:02
high reputation across political dividing lines. It's interesting you mention Reform UK, Sir John
5:11
because it was only a few weeks ago we were speaking about the extraordinary local election
5:15
success in England and then national in Wales and Scotland in areas now where Andy Burnham
5:19
will become the MP. So should reform have its head in its hands? Well, I think what's certainly true is that the political field has got that bit more
5:32
competitive for reform in the wake of the results last night So I think the crucial point is not well the extent to which reform did or didn manage to achieve its potential in maker field
5:47
I mean, at the end of the day, its vote was still up on what it achieved back in 2024, even if it was well done on its performance in the local elections
5:54
the crucial point is that there is now the possibility that the next Labour leader who
6:02
is going to come probably quite soon now will be somebody who is able to increase Labour's support
6:10
and that therefore as a result make it less likely that reform a retain poll position in the polls and
6:18
certainly are doing sufficiently far ahead to have a prospect of actually winning an overall majority
6:23
in a general election but equally the Aberdeen South Resort which again very particular very
6:30
spectacular but it was an indication that there is again also still life in the conservative dog
6:38
and that in particular what the conservatives were able to do in Aberdeen was to focus on an
6:43
economic issue that is the debate about what we should do about North Sea oil now it has a
6:49
particular obvious resonance in Aberdeen, the oil capital of the UK. But it was the first time that
6:57
the Conservatives majored on an economic issue and managed to make it to work for them electorally
7:04
And I think it's not long been recognised by the Conservatives. They're going to be able to compete
7:08
with reform and to be able to get back into some kind of respectability in the eyes of the electorate
7:14
they need to be able to come up with an economic platform that enables them to compete with Labour
7:20
and they certainly did that in Aberdeen South, but also means that they focus voters away
7:26
from all the emphasis on immigration and on equality policies and all those issues
7:32
which for so long as they're dominating our politics are to reform's advantage. Lastly, Sir John, I've had the pleasure and privilege of speaking with you down many, many years
7:40
How long has Sir Keir Starmer got? potentially no more than a few days i mean i think the problem for him now
7:47
is that um that because mr burnham has done anything and everything that any labor mp might
7:56
have been looking for to be convinced that secure starmer should give way to annie burnham
8:01
that evidence has been provided so the question now will be whether or not the number of labor
8:07
MPs who want Mr Burnham to replace him becomes so large that the message from the whips to
8:13
Sikir Starmer is, look, you've basically lost the confidence of the party, the game is up
8:18
and that therefore basically he has to accept he's lost the confidence of the House of Commons
8:22
and whatever the internal Labour Party rules about him having an automatic right to stand
8:27
if he doesn have the confidence of the House of Commons then he has to resign In other words he suffers the same fate as boris johnson um but even you know even if that doesn happen um unless the polling of
8:41
labour members is entirely wrong basically um uh andy burnham should be able to defeat keir starma
8:49
amongst labour membership with relative ease and that should be coming uh obvious to uh secure starma
8:55
during the course of the next week or so. So Andy Burnham, a whisker under 25,000 votes
9:01
even if you put Reform UK at 15,500, roughly 15,600, and restore Britain just over 3,000
9:09
they still don't get anywhere near. What's the magic of Mr Burnham? Good morning
9:13
Good morning. It's very clear that Andy Burnham has a strong personal brand
9:19
at least in that area of the country, and that was something that was very evident going into this contest
9:24
and has proved very evident in the results. As was mentioned, by-elections are weird and unusual
9:29
in many different ways and it is easy to over-interpret the results. But what is clear
9:35
from this set of results is that there is popularity for Andy Burnham at a personal level
9:41
There's also a desire for change at a national level. And with reform, we see a struggle to fight
9:49
against tactical voting because Andy Burnham not just increased turnout over the general election
9:56
which is vanishingly rare in by-elections, he also increased his share of the vote and the number of
10:02
absolute votes that were won by Labour at the election. And so a very strong performance by him
10:10
and politics, as we know Nick, is so often about momentum and at the moment that momentum is very
10:16
much with Andy Burnham. The phony war of the Labour leadership election is now over and full
10:23
battle, I'm sure, will commence. Joe, off to Aberdeen South. We need to reference that. The
10:28
first election, victory for the Conservatives of its kind, I'm told, in more than or nearly 60 years
10:32
Again, just the tale of the tape. Douglas Lumsden for the Conservative, 14,300. Healthy lead over
10:38
the SNP's Richard Thompson, 8,200 odd. What do we take from that, Joe? A strong, strong performance
10:45
by the Conservatives, the like of which they simply don't get in Scotland
10:49
let alone in Scottish by-elections, and really an indication of the importance of specific local issues in that area
10:56
with regards to oil and gas. And so I think as some messages will be taken from Makerfield
11:04
and obviously we'll discuss those at length, you can't ignore the messages that are very clear in that area in Scotland
11:11
with Aberdeen South. And whether Labour makes some sort of change over its policies around oil and gas remains to be seen
11:21
But certainly in that area, the voting is very clear
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