Up next in 10
James O’Brien reacts to the seismic Makerfield by-election result and asks whether Keir Starmer can survive as Labour leader. After initially saying he believes “it’s over” for the Prime Minister, James reflects on Starmer’s achievements, the rise of Andy Burnham and whether replacing him would be a mistake. He also discusses Reform’s support in areas with low immigration, the role of the media, and why he is ultimately left asking the question: should Keir Starmer stay or should he go? Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #makerfield #andyburnham #burnham #keirstarmer #starmer #politics #ukpolitics #uknews #farage #nigelfarage #labour #farage #uk #debate #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Good morning. It's three... Oh, I'm sorry
0:01
We interrupt this programme with an urgent public safety appeal. A little man called Nigel has gone missing in the Makerfield area of England
0:12
His mummy is very worried about him. Apparently he is wearing an outfit..
0:16
It's described here as he's dressed like a city dweller's idea of what a country gentleman looks like
0:23
And if you do have any information about the whereabouts of Nigel, whose mummy is very worried about him
0:28
then the number you need is 0345 6060 973. So just to repeat, a little man called Nigel
0:35
if you see him wandering around Makerfield looking lost, his mummy's very worried about him
0:41
and we wonder if you could help reunite him with his very concerned mummy
0:47
And that's the end of the public safety announcement. Four minutes after ten is the time you're listening to James O'Brien on LBC
0:54
where the result in Makerfield last night is not only a disaster for Keir Starmer
0:58
but also, of course, as is often the case these days for most political journalists, not all
1:03
but for most political journalists who've spent weeks talking about knife edges and Farage's vote being cannibalised
1:09
by the other fellow who is called Reclaim or Restore or I forget precisely which
1:14
It's so hard to keep up, but I will get across it, I promise. It's unprofessional of me not to
1:20
But it's the scale of... I've got some breaking news for you
1:24
Keir Starmer has said he will stand in any leadership contest should one be triggered after Andy Burnham's return to Westminster
1:31
adding he will not walk away. I suppose we should all be grateful to the Prime Minister
1:35
for giving us our first phone-in topic of the day. And a really interesting question, actually
1:41
because I was going to go with what do you want to see happen next, but now you actually know what is going to happen next
1:47
The only bit we don't know, the known unknown, is, of course, how many other hats get tossed into that ring
1:53
including possibly, but I'm told not by any stretch of the imagination, certainly, or even particularly likely at the moment
2:00
but never say never, the steely-eyed messenger of death himself, Dan Jarvis
2:05
That was his nickname when he was in the paratroopers. And you know how dewy-eyed I can get
2:09
about people who were prepared to risk their life in the service of this country
2:13
I mean, people who genuinely were prepared to risk their life in the service of this country
2:18
not sort of plumbers from Makerfield who were glorified cadets. I would love to see Dan Jarvis have a crack at the big job
2:26
but it may be a little bit early. Reflux, I think, the other parties
2:31
No, sorry, regurgitate. It'll come to me in a minute. I'll get it in a second
2:37
And we're a bit where we were at the beginning of the week, except the significant dimension of yesterday's result
2:46
last night's result. And I don't know if you were listening to Lewis Goodall overnight, but goodness me
2:50
I don't know whether he was on the pro plus, but he did an absolutely fantastic job of steering us through the expected and unexpected dimensions of yesterday's results
3:00
And the, I think, unexpected or unpredictable. Did you have a feeling
3:05
I bottled making any meaningful predictions. I mean, I wasn't allowed to make any yesterday
3:09
If I'd even mentioned the by-election, I would have got into huge trouble. And do you know what I would have said
3:14
Do you want to know what I would have said yesterday if I was allowed to say anything? I would have said that a party that is opposed to immigration
3:22
is about to do well in a constituency that doesn't have any. I think that the white ethnic British part
3:29
English part of that constituency, it's 90-something percent. I think it might be as much as 97
3:36
And do you know what happened on the occasion, the only occasion, of an Ofcom complaint against me
3:44
little old me, an Ofcom complaint against me actually being upheld. I said, live on the radio
3:50
that an anti-immigration party was about to win a by-election in a constituency that didn't have any immigrants
3:56
I was talking about Clacton, amazingly enough, when Douglas Carswell, do you remember him
4:00
When he was running for UKIP, which is one of the parties
4:05
that Nigel Farage used to own, run, work for, I don't know, lead, it's hard to keep track
4:11
So that a fascinating dimension isn it The idea that he does best I guess the racists always do best in the areas where there isn any immigration
4:21
or where there's next to no immigration because the rest of us know what it's like. The rest of us can see what it's like and are amazingly not terrified or terrorised by it
4:31
It's why, of course, the fascists around the world have such a huge problem with London
4:35
and our thrice elected mayor, Sadiq Khan, Picking up an award in Singapore just last week
4:42
which you probably won't have read about in your morning rag. Picking up or heard about from your favourite right-wing presenters
4:48
Picking up an award in Singapore last week for... We're just kind of leading a brilliant city, really
4:55
And it's the size of the... Sorry, I'm getting distracted. Getting the size of this victory
5:04
And that is a game-changer from Keir Starmer's point of view. because it makes the case for change close to irresistible
5:15
If you think of an opinion poll as an indication of what a constituency is going to do
5:20
and then think of a by-election as an indication of where a country sits
5:25
it's far from exact science, and yet the need, the desire for change from both Labour supporters
5:33
and Labour's critics or Labour's doubters is pretty close to irresistible. I'm stealing that from James
5:42
James, thank you for that. I'm stealing it from you. Apparently, Nigel Farage is starting a new party now
5:49
It's called Recluse. It's the size of the result that makes Keir Starmer's position
5:57
I think, close to indefensible. It makes his position... I think it's untenable
6:07
I'm glad that we began this week by reflecting on the fact that the worst thing probably about this whole scenario
6:13
is that Starmer is a man more sinned against than sinning. It's as if he's found himself in a hole so deep he can't get out of it
6:20
but he didn't dig much of it himself. He definitely dug some of it himself, don't get me wrong
6:25
I think in many areas he has been profoundly disappointing, and I appreciate how upsetting some people find that
6:32
and I know how much this is going to upset you as well. a little bit of the defence of Keir Starmer reminds me of the defence of Jeremy Corbyn
6:40
It's as if you're ignoring the evidence of your own eyes and ears and just knotting that scarf ever tighter around your neck
6:46
But only a small bit of that. I don't think you're anywhere near as deluded because I honestly do think that Starmer has fallen so far into that hole
6:56
because he was so bad at refilling it. Do you know what I mean
7:00
It was as if he was taken... Someone compared him this morning to a Labrador that is startled by its own flatulence
7:08
And they suggested that sometimes Keir Starmer has that air of somebody who is constantly being taken by surprise by events that he is both responsible for and should have been able to completely predict
7:21
And I do think, for the record, listen, let me tell you, I think it's over for Keir Starmer
7:26
And I think it's perfectly possible that a year from now we'll look back and curse ourselves for having accelerated and facilitated the change of personnel
7:34
I would say the chances of that happening are 48-52. Actually, no, I can't weld myself to the infernal statistic forevermore
7:42
I think the chances of that happening are relatively low. Let's say about 30%
7:47
But it's a very real prospect that we will look back in a couple of years
7:51
or perhaps as the next general election approaches and we will say to ourselves, why on earth didn't we stick with Starmer
7:58
Why didn't we leave him on the bridge as he struggled with the wheel
8:02
and tried to turn that oil tanker around? Because it was beginning to shift
8:07
And a large part of the reason why the country didn't think it was beginning to shift was because of the effort put into maligning him
8:13
And now guess what's going to happen? Spoiler alert, all of those guns turn on Andy Burnham
8:19
All of those tanks are parked on Andy Burnham lawn which is why I got a sort of sneaking soft spot for Dan Jarvis Because I think even the kind of moral bankrupts on the right of the British media will struggle to land punches on a paratrooper in quite the same way that they will on Andy Burnham
8:41
So he is now absolutely public enemy number one. The headlines will probably start tomorrow
8:48
Give it till Sunday before the political editor of the Mail on Sunday
8:52
Glenn Owen, takes dictation from Nigel Farage about things that aren't true and sticks it on the front page of the paper
8:58
Daily Express will probably be describing Andy Burnham as the Antichrist by Tea Time today
9:04
He will now be on the receiving end of the kind of abuse and vitriol
9:08
that only people like Keir Starmer, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn would be able to explain to him
9:15
It is going to be horrible and it is going to be constant
9:19
and it is going to be effective. It is going to chip away from today onwards
9:24
at the momentum that Andy Burnham currently enjoys and the sense of optimism that he has somehow managed to engender
9:37
Which brings us to the phone-in. Normally on a day like today, we'd confine some of the early contributions
9:41
to people who were in the constituency. I can see that Chris in Wigan is already on the board
9:45
and fits that category completely. So what happened in Makerfield is a question that you can only really answer
9:51
if you were or are in Makerfield. 0345 6060973 but the question I want you to answer
9:59
and I want you to jump in quite early on this Keith got a bit excited yesterday
10:05
after suggesting that we take a hydration break at quarter past and stop riding roughshod
10:11
over all the requirements and traditions of this programme by generally ignoring the times at which I'm supposed to shut up
10:16
for a few minutes I've got four minutes of Keir Starmer though, Keith
10:20
shall we play that now or shall we play it when we come back from the hydration break. Is anyone..
10:26
I mean, come on, you know, this isn't a one-man show. This is collegia
10:30
Eleanor, what do you think? Do we play it now or do we play it now? So, Keith, sorry, mate
10:34
you're going to have to put the hydration break back in the fridge for a moment. Here's Keir Starmer talking just a few moments ago
10:39
After you've heard him speak, I want you to ring me and tell me whether or not you think he should fight on
10:43
as he's about to tell you he is going to, or whether he should actually now roll over
10:49
and clear the decks for either the coronation of Andy Burnham or a leadership battle involving Andy Burnham
10:55
What do you want Keir Starmer to do? And crucially, because you know how this programme works, why
11:01
Here he is just a few moments ago. Let me start by saying this was a very good victory in the by-election
11:07
and I've sent my congratulations to Andy Burnham and I repeat them here
11:12
And actually my thanks to all of our activists and members who fought so hard over the last few weeks in what turned out to be a real battle of values
11:21
Labour values, against divisive reform values and a very divisive candidate. So that is a really, really good outcome
11:31
I think it's further evidence, actually, if you look at it in the context of other by-elections
11:36
that the tide is turning on reform, that they can't now win by-elections
11:40
They've reached probably the peak of their support and it's going down
11:44
So very good. Congratulations to Andy Burnham. But actually, tide is turning on reform as well
11:49
So this is really important in that respect. My question was about whether you phoned him
11:55
and whether you still plan to take part in the imminent leadership contest, because today we're seeing MPs who were loyal to you now saying your time is up
12:05
Well, I haven't spoken to Andy directly yet, but I will. I have sent my congratulations to him
12:11
So we're very clear about that. And it is a really important victory that he's got there
12:17
In relation to what happens next, obviously, we had a mandate two years ago to carry out
12:22
change, and we've done incredible things. Two years ago, people said to me, it's not possible to stabilise the economy and invest
12:30
in your public services and bring down weightiness. You're going to have to choose one or the other
12:34
We've done both. Two years ago, people said to me, it's not possible to get migration down from the level
12:39
that the Tories left it at, which was nearly a million. We brought it down to a fifth of that number Two years ago people said it not possible to get a much closer better relationship with the EU given what going on We achieved all that So a huge amount has been achieved There more to do and that
12:56
what I'm focusing on. What I was elected to do which is to serve my country
13:00
You seem to be talking about your legacy, Prime Minister. The vast majority of
13:04
ministers and backbenchers and special advisors I speak to say in private they
13:10
think you're finished. Is it time to set out a timetable today? I think it's really important to
13:16
put the achievements that we've put already achieved into context because when I talk about
13:22
stabilising the economy, when I talk about bringing waiting lists down and getting migration done
13:27
I'm talking about projects like this. I'm talking about people who need houses, businesses that need
13:32
to thrive. That's what drives me every day. I was elected here to serve my country with a mandate
13:38
that we secured at a general election two years ago, a very considerable mandate for change
13:44
We are figuring out that change. A lot of what we've achieved, people told me, wouldn't be possible
13:49
If we'd sat here doing this interview at the general election 2024 and you'd put to me
13:55
in two years' time, the economy will be stabilised. In two years' time, waiting lists will be coming down
14:00
In two years' time, migration will be back under control. In two years' time, we'd have had the EU in the relationship we've got
14:07
and in two years' time reform would be on the run and the tide would be turning, I would have said that would be a very good place to be, but that is the place we are in
14:14
So to be clear, I don't understand, are you going to be involved in a leadership contest or not
14:20
Well, there isn't a leadership contest at the moment. But when there is, and it's England Prime Minister, isn't it? There isn't one at the moment, but as I've said on many, many occasions
14:26
I don't think that's a good thing for the country to plunge us into chaos
14:30
I would also add that now that Andy has won, which is really important, really good
14:35
is a huge asset to us, then now will inevitably be a Manchester mayoralty by-election starting
14:41
straight away. So it's important that we pull together for that. But if there is a contest
14:46
just to be clear with you, then yes, I will run. I will stand. And I've said repeatedly
14:50
I'm not going to walk away from that. I don't believe it. I'm a mess. Can I get
14:56
and this is up to you, and you can tell me that I can't, you're in charge. Can I have one free
15:01
pass on not being able to make my mind up? Because I listen to that. He always sounds at his best
15:05
when he's got his back against the wall. And the things that he listed there, I know that the fall in immigration
15:10
is going to be a disaster for the country in the long term, but it's what the country wants
15:14
That's just accounting, sadly. It's not an opinion. The battle has been lost
15:19
The racists won that. And lots of people who aren't racist ended up believing what the racists told them
15:26
You might not like that ysis, but I'm sticking to it. And then he points out that, you know
15:31
moving ever closer to the European Union, He didn't even mention the workers' rights bill or the renters' rights
15:37
All the things that he's done will look quite impressive in retrospect
15:43
And yet, five minutes ago, I was adamant that he should probably
15:46
spare us all the nightmare of a battle and just clear the path for Andy Burnham into Downing Street
15:54
So I promise I'm not going to make a habit of this, all right? But I honestly haven't got a clue what to think
16:00
I've been saying for about a month that Starmer hanging on, even when Burnham wins, is underpriced
16:05
Then I saw the scale of Burnham's victory in Makerfield, where obviously if the support for him had been confined
16:12
to people who were supporters of Keir Starmer, he would have lost. Something very unique, you can't have gradations of unique
16:19
something specific and unique has happened in that by-election because of what Burnham represents
16:26
I think if you don't agree with that, then you're deluded. But should Starmer fight on
16:32
He won a general election with a massive majority about two years ago
16:36
Oh, I'm really sorry. And I can't keep going on about how sorry I am
16:40
that I am blowing in the wind like a weather vane on this guy and on this story and on this question
16:46
So the more certain you are, the more welcome you will be
16:49
Although, don't feel that you're not allowed to join me in blowing in the wind or swinging like a pendulum
16:56
Should Starmer... Let's just dedicate the rest of this hour to The Clash
17:00
Yeah? should he stay or should he go
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