Up next in 10
Tom Swarbrick hosts a special edition of his show at the Commercial Inn pub in Ashton-In-Makerfield to commemorate the crucial local by-election. Andy Burnham is Labour's candidate to replace Josh Simons, who stood down to allow Mr Burnham the chance to re-enter the Commons. 00:35 | LBC's political editor Natasha Clark 03:29 | Luke Charters, Labour MP for York Outer He is facing a challenge from Reform's Robert Kenyon, a plumber who lives in the Manchester region, who has been called out for his previous controversial posts on social media. Mr Burnham is currently Greater Manchester Mayor but might step down from that role if he wins the by-election. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #TomSwarbrick#NatashaClark #Politics #UKPolitics #News #UKNews #UK #Election #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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It is the centre of the British political universe right now, and we are live in it this afternoon
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We're in the pub in Ashton in Makerfield, where the campaigning is reaching its zenith ahead of the most consequential by-election for decades
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A chance for the people of this part of the world to potentially change the country
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Right now, Labour and Andy Burnham lead reform in the polls, but not by much
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with Keir Starmer saying today that Andy Burnham should have a big role in government
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and that an immediate leadership challenge is not what the country needs
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We'll speak to one of those MPs, Labour MPs, who's been out campaigning for Andy Burnham today
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First, Natasha Clarke is LBC's political editor. Natasha, one wonders whether the Prime Minister has moved today
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from denial to bargaining when it comes to the challenge of Andy Burnham. Yes, Tom, I think that's what it looks like, doesn't it
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And obviously the Prime Minister, as we said, are hundreds of miles away in France
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but still absolutely being dominated by thoughts back home and what's going to happen if this, what's going to happen if that
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Lots of scenarios playing out. And obviously, no result is a foregone conclusion yet
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And everybody I'm speaking to in the Labour camps and the reform camps as well, saying that we don't think this is a done deal yet, despite what the polls say
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But there are plans afoot for what happens in the days to come if, and it's still a big if at this point, a leadership election is challenged
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So Keir Starmer has been speaking to journalists earlier at the G7 summit. He said that a leadership contest now is not the answer
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And he also, Tom, said that he would be willing to give Andy Burnham a job
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Now, we understand that that is something that Andy Burnham does not want to accept
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But obviously, lots of sort of speculation discussions going on behind the scenes
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And sort of Andy Burnham is now wargaming for what happens next in the hours and the days to come
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Now, if he does win, won't be an MP until Monday, until he is sworn in to Parliament on Monday
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So you can't challenge the Prime Minister until then. So we are up for a weekend, essentially, of feverish speculation
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And I imagine number 10 Downing Street will be wargaming exactly what they are going to say in response to this election win
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What does that look like in terms of the messages that are going out? They're obviously going to have to say, well, great job, Andy Burnham
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We want you to come in and work with us. But now is not the right time for that leadership contest
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That's if he wins. That's if he wins. What happens if he doesn't? I think if he loses and reform continues to sweep up all of the votes, as indeed they have done it
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If it wasn't Andy Burnham, in theory, this would be over, wouldn't it? I think it would, Tom. I don't think that any Labour candidate apart from Andy Burnham would have a chance in this by-election right now
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Team and brand Andy Burnham is so strong in areas like this and everybody that I've been speaking to here in Makerfield
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If reform win, I think that is like, it's just complete chaos for the Labour Party
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for the government. I do not think people have a plan B. Everybody I'm speaking to doesn't really know
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exactly what they would do if reform win, but there is still a chance. They do have a strong vote here
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They been doing very well on the doors and in the local elections And yes just to go back to the idea of Andy Burnham what happens if Keir Starmer doesn set out a resignation timetable as indeed has been asked for
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I don't think he's going to do that. I don't think anybody in Westminster at the moment thinks he's going to do that
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So I said that to one member of team Andy Burnham today. I said, what happens next
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They say he goes to war with Keir, a stalking horse potentially triggers, high-profile cabinet resignations, bloodbath
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We've got it all to look forward to. Natasha, thank you very much indeed. Natasha Clarke, LBC's political editor
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Joining us live is Luke Charters, the Labour MP for York Outer, who's been out here campaigning
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Tough ask for you to come and do an interview in a pub with a pint in your hand, isn't it? Strong England shirt replica game, by the way. That's a very good effort
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I think it's 90s, even before I was born this retro, so it might be a copy this one, Tom
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So, why do you want Keir Starmer to go? Well, look, we're 30 hours away from a by-election, and I can say this, Tom
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we've spoken to tens of thousands of people and each conversation I've had
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and I've spoken to hundreds of people too it tracks back to the same thing
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they want a bit of hope back they've lost a lot of trust in the Westminster model
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they believe in what Andy can do and everyone, to be honest Tom they seem to know Andy from somewhere
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the local rugby club, the kids swimming groups there's a great affinity for Andy in this part of the world
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and they just want a bit of hope back So Keir Starmer should go
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because he hasn't done enough to give the country a pep talk
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Well, do you know what? I would say the government has been too timid on things like social care, not strong enough on defence, not an advocate for things like getting good industrial jobs back in this part of the world
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And Andy, look at what he's done as mayor. He's smashed through the system. He's delivered the B network. He's delivered all of this growth and prosperity to this corner of the world
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That's what one of people see. He's delivered growth here? He's delivered in the Greater Manchester Combined Authority
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where we are, Tom. It's been the fastest growing in terms of GVA
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So, but it matters when it comes to living standards, and that is what we've got to see coming through
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People I've been speaking to here don't feel that their living standards have improved at all
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Quite the opposite. Feel it's gone backwards. Well, you look outside this window, this great pub
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and I heard Jeff, he's a lovely chap who's the landlord of this pub. You see those B Network buses flying through
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and he was one of the first mayors in UK to bring in some of those fair caps
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That's critical. It's got to join up some of those jobs. And not only that, he gets the fact that we've got to bring skilled jobs back for young people
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and that's what's going to turbocharge places like Makerfield. He's talked on the campaign a bit about what he might do, hinted at what he might do
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were he to get a bigger job after this, after being the MP here. Do you think it would be right to say now that there would be no increase in income tax
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Hey, Tom, I mean, I'm sat here, as you say, having a pint with you 30 hours before the by-election, right
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We stood on that Labour manifesto. Andy's committed to that Labour manifesto
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But on many of the things in there, well, guess what? We been a bit too much of a snail and a sloth when it comes to bringing some of those policies forward Well arguably Andy got to come in and bring change to the Labour Party and he willing to take it all the way through The manifesto commitments on tax have not been adhided to by the Labour Party and government
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I noticed that Andy Burnham said during the campaign, on the personal allowance, I've
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heard on so many doorsteps and I've said to my team, let's have a proper look at this and let's develop a policy
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So does that mean that there won't be income tax rises under Andy Burnham as Prime Minister or not? Or we just don't know yet
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Well, I'll tell you this, Tom, because we're sat in a pub and everyone's about to go to their great local to go and watch the England match shortly
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Andy has said, we got it wrong on business rates and hospitality. He said, and I used to own
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a bar, I get hospitality as two. He's got hospitality in his DNA
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in terms of what he's done for Manchester. He said, reduce business rates by
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20%. So when you're having a pint and watching the England game tonight, cheering
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out 11 on. How much does that cost? Well, we're going to set all of that out. But what we can't
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go on, though, is seeing pubs, just like under the last government
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close. We're determined not to let that happen and what Andy's done in Manchester is create
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a thriving hospitality scene. That's what we're going to do for Britain. And this was part of the problem that Keir Starmer had when he got in
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was he didn't really have a plan. He had nice ideas he had thoughts about what he'd like to see but no
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plan of how to get there. Same is due here. Great! Let's cut the business rates for these pubs
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let's give them a chance to grow. Don't know how we're going to do it, don't know how much it costs
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don't know how we're going to afford it. Well when Andy came in, he's got a track record. He's got
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that experience of being in Westminster before and seeing the quagmire and how slow it is to get stuff done there
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And he's coming to Greater Manchester. He's delivered the Bean Network. He's created this revolution, crowding in private sector investment
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He's a doer. He's actually done things. I've not seen that enough, Tom
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Can I be totally candid and honest with you? I've not seen that urgency and pace of change
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Don't forget Labour governments. They don't come round often enough. We've got to make the most of the time we've got in hand
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And when they do come around, one of the things that the Prime Minister said was that he would tread more lightly on people's lives
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and here we are with the Labour Party potentially about to go through a similar thing that the Conservative Party kept doing
8:00
which was replace the leader. Well, we can't go on as we are, can we
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Just we're here in Makerfield at the moment. Why does it need a change of person to change the policy
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Well, Tom, here in Makerfield, in the local elections, if you translated the local election results
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to the parliamentary seats, guess what? Reform, they would be having a majority of 8,000
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This would be a walk in the park, this kind of place, for reform at a general election
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We will just be sleepwalking into the abyss if we keep on this course
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Andy, guess what? He actually can connect and resonate with working class people
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That's what I've seen. He's a genuine chap. We've got to change not what we're doing, the urgency of it
8:36
We do have to change how we speak and talk to people. Yes, and be more clear on what it is you're going to do
8:44
not deviate from the path. Say what you're going to do and do it. Well, always
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But I'm concerned that when we've said that we're going to do things like the defence investment plan
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When we're going to say we're going to do things like fixed transport in this country
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we've been too slow about that. So does he commit to giving compensation
9:01
to the Waspie women or not? Because he said he would and doesn sound like he is The thing is about Andy if you get to know him him and people in this corner of the world do know him he understands injustice at his very core And what he done for Waspie Women here is looking at things like the discount
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when it comes to travel and transport. That's a model, a place-based approach that we should be taking across the country
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They want to cost them billions of pounds. It's not quite talking about that, Tom, but he said that mares
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we've got some great mares up north, so Oliver and Tracy and David Scaith
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and all these other great northerners fighting for their errors. These are the sorts of models that you can come in and tackle injustice
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like the Waspie issue, on a regional basis as well. So you might not get the compensation of the pensions that you missed out on
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but here's some money off the bus travel. Is that what fights the injustice there
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What Andy has done when it's come to injustice is he's taken his leadership role in Greater Manchester
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like justice for the 97 now, not the 96, and he's used his role to advance those causes
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And that's the model we've got to do. We can't have this Westminster over-concentration of power anymore
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We've got to get some of those great working mayors actually empowered to change society too
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Let's imagine he wins. How long before he launches a challenge, do you think
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If he was sitting at the table now and there were no microphones here and you were advising him, would you say, go quickly
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Tom, I'd say I hope Starmer could see really what's built up
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I hope he could smell the coffee over the weekend. But I would say over the next 30 hours
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Labour's not had a great track run of winning elections. This would be one of reforms that I think would be the 29th target seat
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If Andy can pull this off, we don't just get one by-election win
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We actually get a recipe, a blueprint, a formula for how we might roll that out and beat reform across the rest of the country
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Don't forget. So go fast. Well, Farage is desperate. Farage is desperate for Andy not to win
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To cover up for the fact that Farage got five million quid and he's thrown every nasty trick at the book in this campaign
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AI slop to try and detract from that Robert Kenyon sexist, misogynistic comments
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Farage is desperate not to let Andy win because he knows that Farage is not going to make it to number 10 if Andy wins tomorrow
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Would you like a new Prime Minister by conference? Well, I'd like... I think we need to change the course of the Labour Party
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look, we've got this next 30 hours ahead of us, it's really crucial
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it might not be the case that even Andy isn't able to determine the scale of it
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Wes Street, he triggered a lot of this process didn't he? And we'll have to
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wait and see, won't we? Enjoy the match tonight, if you get time off from knocking on doors
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What do you reckon score then, Tom? I think we're going to draw, I think it's going to be 1-1, I think the Ghana game's going to get it
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Ah, give over, give over We don't start well. Luke, thank you very much
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indeed for coming in. Luke Charters, Labour MP for York Outer. Worth saying that we have
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approached all the other parties here for a chat. We went to Reform HQ
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even after they ducked our calls. Unfortunately, no one from Reform was available today
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But we hope to speak to them in the near future. There is a full list of candidates as well
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folks, on the website, lbc.co.uk forward slash candidates. You're listening to Tom Swarbrick on LBC
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