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James Hanson revisits his previous prediction about Nigel Farage's political future and now suggests Reform UK's leader could be gone 'by Christmas'.
James says that Nigel Farage could leave politics sooner than expected, either because of a general election or if Reform UK falls to third place in the polls, prompting Farage to step away from frontline politics and return to the private sector.
The latest turmoil follows Reform UK's suspension of political commentator and former Conservative Tim Montgomerie.
James says Reform UK is now in "meltdown", arguing that the party appears increasingly unwilling to tolerate dissent or criticism, even from within its own ranks.
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0:00
Now, you might remember last week, I made quite a bold prediction, which was that I don't think Nigel Farage is going to be the leader of Reform UK in 12 months time
0:15
For a range of reasons, either because there might be an election between now and then, which I think probably if you look at the polls, Andy Burnham would emerge as the Prime Minister at the end of
0:26
and as a result, Nigel Farage thinks, well, do I want to wait around for another four or five years
0:31
until the next election in potentially 2031 or 32, by which point I'll be nearing 70
0:37
No, so he'll quit. Or, and I think this is more likely, Labour will continue to tick up
0:43
the Conservatives under Kemmy Badenow will continue their long, gradual recovery, reform will dip to third in the polls, and at that point, Nigel Farage
0:51
who's looked increasingly irritable on the campaign trail in recent months, will just go, do you know what
0:56
I can't be bothered anymore. I'll go off. I'll quit politics. I'll make a load of money in the private sector
1:02
and do my GB News show. So I think Farage won't be around in 12 months' time
1:08
A couple of things on that. First of all, what do you think my forfeit should be
1:12
if I'm wrong? Someone raised this with me this week. They said, oh, I saw your prediction
1:16
that Nigel Farage won't be the reform leader in a year. What are you going to do if you're wrong
1:23
If you've got any suggestions, I'm all ears, what should I do
1:27
if in 12 months' time I am proven wrong? I mean, I'm sure I can make a donation to Globals
1:32
make some noise or something but if you've got a more creative suggestion I am all ears. But I also wonder if you think
1:39
I have actually given Nigel Farage too much leeway there. Maybe he'll be gone even sooner than that
1:48
because I don't know if you've noticed this week but the wheels are coming off
1:52
Reform UK. The party is increasingly in meltdown. There was a story this week that
2:00
you may not have spotted, but it's very significant. A man called Tim Montgomery
2:04
was suspended by Reform UK. Now, he was the founder of the Conservative Home website back in the mid was a very active member of the Conservative Party for many years was I think influential in Ian Duncan Smith leadership of the Conservative Party
2:21
served briefly in Boris Johnson's Downing Street as well, was seen as a kind of tribally Tory
2:28
Conservative grandee and when he defected to reform in the autumn of 2024 it was seen as kind
2:34
of the ravens leaving the tower and at that point a lot of people thought well is this a sign the
2:38
Conservative Party is facing extinction, because if even the likes of Tim Montgomery are going off
2:43
to reform, then the writing may be on the wall for Kemi Badenock and the Tories. And yet, this week
2:50
reform have kicked him out. He's been suspended, supposedly it would seem, for being too critical
2:56
of them in public. He has made a number of media appearances in which he has given some constructive
3:02
criticism to Nigel Farage, for example, saying he should appoint a chief of staff, he's been
3:07
critical of the Home Affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf. He's been quite vocal and outspoken on
3:13
social media and he gave an interview I think to The Spectator earlier this week in which he
3:17
outlined some of his points of constructive criticism. Now it's worth saying Tim Montgomery
3:22
is essentially just a lay member of reform. He's not an active, well he's active I suppose, but he's
3:29
not a, hasn't got an official position as such. So quite why they would object to him making
3:36
suggestions such as, do you know what we could do with appointing a chief of staff for Nigel Farage
3:41
I do not know. But it reveals something about the personality cult around Nigel Farage that they
3:49
can't brook any criticism. They can't stomach any suggestions, any dissent of any nature whatsoever
3:59
even if it comes from a critical friend like Tim Montgomery. And I wonder if in the same way
4:06
that Tim Montgomery's defection from the Tories to reform was seen at the time as quite a pivotal moment
4:13
Whether, if indeed my prediction comes true, that Nigel Farage will not be the leader of Reform UK in 12 months' time
4:19
we will look back at his suspension from reform as another pivotal moment in their decline And one of the people who Tim Montgomery has criticised is this bloke Zia Yusuf who is very active in what they call the shadow cabinet of reform Of course it not a shadow
4:40
cabinet because there's only one shadow cabinet. That is the official opposition, which is the
4:44
second largest party in the House of Commons, which of course is still the Conservative Party
4:47
for the time being, at least. And reform calls Zia Yusuf their shadow home secretary. Park that
4:53
to one side, because he's not. He's the Home Affairs spokesperson. He is incredibly vocal
4:59
He is incredibly outspoken. And his rhetoric sometimes is pretty disgraceful. He recently
5:05
called Ben Wallace, the former Conservative Defence Secretary, a man who I think deserves
5:10
a lot of credit for the way he rallied support for Ukraine after Vladimir Putin's full-scale
5:15
invasion, but also someone who has served on the front lines for this country in the
5:20
armed forces Zia Yusuf called Ben Wallace a traitor on social media recently. Zia Yusuf of
5:27
course a man who has never fought for this country and this at a time when Reformy UK are criticising
5:32
some of their opponents for supposedly extreme language and saying we need to take the temperature
5:39
down of public debate which I agree with in the wake of for example the death of Anne Whittacombe
5:44
You're not taking down the temperature of public debate if you're calling a former defence secretary
5:50
a man who should be respected, who is respected, across the political spectrum
5:54
a man who fought for this country, a traitor. It's disgraceful language from Zia Yusuf
5:59
And that was one of the things that Tim Montgomery criticised him for, rightly, if you ask me
6:05
But if you go on Zia Yusuf's social media, you will see that he's becoming increasingly deranged with some of the stuff that he is posting
6:15
He goes on these late-night Twitter rants and rambles in which it's like a stream of consciousness
6:22
and his language becomes increasingly extreme. He becomes increasingly angry. I think he's spending far too much time online
6:33
The other night he called himself a lethal electoral threat. Those were the words he used
6:39
He said, the other parties are coming after me because I a lethal electoral threat so lethal an electoral threat by the way that Nigel Farage won let Zia Yusuf run in any of the by because why wasn he running Makerfield Why wasn he running
6:56
Gorton and Denton? Why wasn't he running the local elections? If he's such a lethal electoral threat
7:02
you'd put him forward as a candidate, wouldn't you? And yet a lot of people saying actually
7:06
there is polling showing he's pretty toxic to many voters, including in particular female voters
7:10
and I can kind of see why. You've now got Richard Tice, Nigel Farage's deputy
7:16
and Zia Yusuf accusing many quite prominent right-leaning media outlets of being biased against them
7:23
You've got Richard Tice this week kicking off against Tim Shipman, who's the political editor of The Spectator
7:29
The Spectator is not a left-wing publication. They're having a go at the Daily Telegraph now
7:35
They're having a go at the Times newspaper because, of course, it's the Times, or specifically the Sunday Times
7:39
that has been leading the charge with this investigation into Nigel Farage and Reform's finances
7:44
That is just called investigative journalism. It's not a right-wing smear. It's not a mainstream media uniparty smear
7:53
It is called investigative journalism. Suck it up, get used to it
7:57
If you're going to be on the front line of British politics, you have to accept that people will scrutinise you
8:03
your party, your finances. So the wheels are coming off Reform UK
8:09
And they're not doing badly in the polls. OK, they're not leading the polls anymore
8:13
And they have dipped in recent months, and I suspect they will continue to fall
8:17
But for the time being, at least, they're still second in the polls. And yet they're acting like they're in terminal decline
8:25
And if this is how they act now, once Nigel Farage finds things even more difficult
8:32
once the scrutiny ramps up even further, and if indeed my prediction comes true
8:37
that in a few months time they do dip into third in the polls imagine the infighting then
8:43
I think we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to the debacle
8:47
that will be reform in full blown meltdown so I wonder if my prediction last week
8:53
that Farage will be gone in 12 months time is actually too generous
8:57
will he be gone by Christmas? I think it's a question that needs to be floated
9:01
anyway just putting it out there
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