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A reform government, I'm going to say it, would be a disaster
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It's one poll, let's be very clear, the last few hundred have suggested reform in the lead
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What is Andy Burnham getting right? What can we put the Burnham bounce down to
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And is it sustainable, do you think? 0345 6060 973 is the number to call
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Let's bring into the conversation first Gideon Skinner, who is Senior Director for UK Politics
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at Ipsos and joins me now. Gideon, thanks very much for coming on. I've sort of said the top
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figures, the headline figures. Can you just give us some more details on what else the polling has
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found? Sure. So as you say, what we can see here is that it's good news for Labour overall. It's
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their best performance in Ipsos polling for over a year when, you know, reform have been leading in
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the polls for most of that time, pretty much sort of since Andy Burton obtained Prime Minister. We
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started to see that change. But there are warning signs for Andy Burnham as well and for Labour. So
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we can see clear evidence of Andy Burnham's popularity and 50% of people say that they
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like him and that's well ahead of other party leaders but actually it's well ahead of the
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Labour Party as well. Only 30% say they like Labour and so we've got this real personal
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popularity for Andy Burnham. We're seeing evidence of some Labour 2024 voters returning to the fold
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underneath him. So last month we had 52% of Labour's 2024 voters saying they would vote Labour
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Now that's gone up to 60%. But we're still seeing a public who are really kind of dissatisfied with
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the direction of the country, still quite pessimistic. 70% say they're still dissatisfied
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with the way the government is running the country, even though they like the new Prime Minister. So it suggests that turning that kind of pretty entrenched pessimism around
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is going to take more than just changing the man in number 10. And what do they like about him
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I mean, Kemi Baden-Lock used that expression about sort of eyebrows and a T-shirt
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which whilst was clearly derogatory, I mean, there is a sense that he is a bit fresher, he's a bit newer
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And some of the policies we announced I mean a cap on bus fares taking money off energy costs these are not novel ideas These are things which Keir Starmer actually did himself in Number 10 to different extents But is it just the sort of era of vibes that he getting right
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Why is he cutting through? So there's definitely some element of that. I mean, people say that he's got a bit more personality
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He gives the impression of being more in touch than Keir Starmer was
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And also, absolutely, focusing on the issue of cost of living, we know, is crucial to the public
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And people really want to see not just the announcement of the policies, but it having a real impact on their day to day lives, which is partly why they're still reserving judgment on Andy Burnham at the moment
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So that so there is a kind of a combination of both that. He does come across as more in touch, better personality, more likes than Keir Starmer
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But we can you know, this has got to be something that lasts for the long term
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Actually, when Keir Starmer took over as leader of the opposition party, he had 50% of people liking him then, which is exactly the same as Andy Burnham get now
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And obviously, we saw Keir Starmer's ratings fall over the course of time
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And lastly, Reform UK. We've seen a sort of challenge from their right of restore Britain, who've polled very well
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They even beat the Conservatives, didn't they, in the Greater Manchester mayoralty race in terms of popular vote
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is it just that that they're being challenged by another party or what do we put the fact that
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their fortune seems to have taken a bit of a turn down to so they've only dipped slightly i mean the
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lead that labour have is still within the margin of error um over over reform um and reform's own
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voters we have to remember are still very positive they still have a very enthusiastic base eight in
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ten of reform voters say they like the leader and they like the party but what we are seeing is a
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Kind of over the last year or so, we have seen both Nigel Farage's popularity and Reform's popularity fall
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We're seeing, particularly among supporters of Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens
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we're seeing them becoming kind of quite strongly opposed to Nigel Farage and Reform
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and putting them at risk of maybe tactical voting from that side too. Thanks, Gideon. Appreciate your time
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Gideon Skinner is Senior Director, UK Politics at Ipsos. Let turn to Carl Turner who the frank talking MP for Kingston upon Hull East and joins me now in a rather fetching pink shirt Carl good to have you on When am I going to be able to say the Labour MP for Kingston upon Hull East
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Well, that'd be lovely, Henry. I'm told by people who are very senior in the Labour Party that's imminent
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Well, they let a couple more in, didn't they, recently, who were suspended. I expected to see your name there
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Well, Henry, they'd been waiting a long time. I think Diane Abbott, bless her, had been 12 months at least
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And I think it's fair to deal with Diane before you deal with Turner, frankly
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I expect to speak with the chief whip in the next few days
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and I hope it's a positive conversation. I'm excited about the prospect of being the Labour MP for Eastall yet again
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Good. Well, we look forward to it. Carl, you've sat in this very seat
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You know sort of what LBC listeners think and what their views are on various things
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What is Andy Burnham seemingly getting right? Because I don't want to seem to be fawning on him
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but clearly something is working. Well, look, I think it is a burn and bounce
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I think that's real. But the fear I have, Henry, is fragile, I think
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because when you look at that poll for LBC, it's clear that the party is doing worse than the leader
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Now, that's not unusual, particularly, but when there's a big gap between the party's polling
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and the leader in the polling, then it's a fragile lead. is my concern
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But I do think people are feeling more enthusiastic. But for me, this looks like a reset
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of where we were two years ago when we finally ousted the Tory party
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the Tory government, after 14 years of what people considered as chaos
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with the previous administration. But we're not ahead, or rather Burnham's, not ahead of where Starmer was then
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so we shouldn't be counting our chickens and getting excited and starting to suggest we go to the country far too fragile and in fact
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reform are still fairly close to where we are i think they're 25 and we're on 28 let's not get
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too excited can andy burnham woo and win back some of those reform voters do you think and if so why well i think he can henry Look the answer to that is Burnham is human You know if Burnham went out for a pint with you after work or whatever
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you'd feel like he was just a normal guy in the room doing normal things. And that is something
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that matters to the electorate, in my opinion. If I have a conversation up down East Hall
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people tend to say you say what you think and would believe it now that's something that star
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man ever had burnham i think is very similar in the sense that he's trusted they believe what he
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says he doesn't try and sort of wangle and answer and you know mess around he answers the question
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for now but my warning and my advice to andy's don't change be yourself but answer questions
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like to think is Mrs. Murray often tells him, answer the bloody question
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lastly Carl this listening mode that Andy Burnham is going into, he's kicking off a nationwide
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cost of living tour, that'll be very welcome for the good folk of Kingston upon Hull
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East I imagine, across various parts of the country what do you want to hear, what do your
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constituents need to hear from Mr. Burnham well look, I think constituents
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across the country, never mind East Hall, are a bit fed up of sort of listening
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things really. I'm on sort of listening watch. I'm on the toll to listen to people
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What they want is action. And my frustration as well as my electorate's frustration is
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we want to see the changes a Labour government can make which are going to improve our
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lots. And if that ain't coming soon, if they don't feel that rapidly
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then we'll start to fall behind in the polls again and people start to look to Farage
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Why? Or rather reform. Why? Because they feel that politics isn't working for them
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so let's try what we've not had yet. And that's a danger
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because I think a reformed government, and banks will say it, would be a disaster for the country
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Sorry, my call point. That's quite good. Carl, thank you as always
