Up next in 10
Shelagh Fogarty is joined by the News Agents' Jon Sopel to discuss Zack Polanski's intention to run for MP in Keir Starmer's old seat in Holborn and St Pancras.
Mr Polanski previously pledged to stand in a by-election if one came up in London.
"I have lived and worked in this community over many years, I know it well and I love it," he told the Camden New Journal.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
#shelaghfogarty #jonsopel #ukpolitics #zackpolanski #andyburnham #keirstarmer #reform #green #LBC
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0:00
You're here to tell me whether Zach Polanski can win that seat that he's announced he's going to run for
0:05
the Prime Minister's former seat. I tell you what, it's a gamble. Ex-Prime Minister's former seat
0:09
Yeah, it's a huge gamble. I mean, look, he hasn't been selected as the candidate
0:14
He wants to. He wants to. And you just think that any which way, if he loses, if he doesn't get the nomination
0:22
if he fights and loses, then where is his leadership? and so you realise for Zach Polanski there is a huge amount at stake but also for Andy Burnham
0:32
there's a huge amount at stake because you know if you know the Green Party pulled it off
0:38
that would kind of halt the momentum that Burnham has given make an awful lot of Labour MPs in other
0:45
constituencies in urban areas or you know kind of university towns think oh my god yeah we're
0:51
really vulnerable to the Green Party and we've you know we need to course correct that a bit
0:55
And then there's the question of, if Zak Polanski hadn't thrown his hat into the ring
1:01
would that have just looked like weakness? And that in itself could have damaged his leadership
1:08
It's problematic in a different way. So if you look at the last general election
1:12
when Keir Starmer fought it, I mean, you know, the Green Party came third
1:15
with not many votes at all. But there was a kind of independent candidate
1:20
standing in the seat who picked up 7,000 or 8,000 votes. the Green Party got 4,000 or so votes
1:27
and therefore you're kind of within 7,000 or 8,000. And we've seen that big swings can happen in by-elections
1:34
And, you know, also the other fact you've got, and you just think about what happened in Makerfield
1:39
with Andy Burnham when it looked like an absolute lost cause and that reform was going to romp home
1:44
You suddenly put a big name in and that can have a galvanising effect
1:49
Well, you've got, before I got there, you've got to the point I was going to make next because there are real lessons for Polanski in Makerfield, aren't there
1:57
And in Andy Burnham, you talked about it being a risk. Well, Andy Burnham's risk-taking has just been amply rewarded in a big way
2:04
He must be looking at that template and thinking, why not? Got to do it. He can, but there is a possibility that sometimes happens in politics
2:12
that the name recognition, whilst sometimes being an enormous plus, could it repel as many voters as it attracts
2:21
And that's the issue, because I think that Polanski is a polarising figure
2:26
And particularly in a constituency like Holborn and St Pancras, I could see him running in Hackney or some other place, you know, other places
2:34
where maybe he would have stood more of a chance. I'm not saying it's not possible, but I think it's a real uphill struggle
2:41
Seeing that the labour machine is big, you've now got Burnham as the leader
2:46
rather than Starmer as the leader, which kind of, you know, there is a bit of momentum
2:50
for Labour going forward now. And I think that it will be you know it been Labour as long as anyone can remember you know go back to Frank it was Frank Dobson old seat back in the day That right And so I think that it will be you know it been Labour as long as anyone can remember you know go back to Frank it was Frank Dobson old seat back in the day And so I think that it would be a huge task huge undertaking huge gamble on Zach Polanski part to go for it
3:11
Because he was the subject of a few sort of tabloid attacks and also just missteps as well in the last, what, six to eight months
3:19
He needs to come back from that anyway as a leader, doesn't he? he does there and the green party's momentum has stalled and if you look at their sort of
3:29
polling position now compared to three or four months ago i mean it's really gone down he added
3:34
what was it i've got here 68 000 members uh he's increased tripled it uh from last september to
3:42
230 000 but there were a lot of people who were disaffected labour members who thought that starma
3:47
was going nowhere and i wonder how many of those have been won back by the sort of new settlement
3:53
of andy burnham as prime minister and some of the messaging he's thinking i'll go back to that
3:58
because because i'm old i will do you remember thatcher when she i do when she was talking about
4:05
the sdp and she used this very sort of what was then a very i think would be considered today a
4:13
very sexist thing we said as only woman knows you can't make a souffle rise twice and i think that
4:20
the green party is in sort of a position where it's trying to make the souffle rise twice the
4:26
green party had a great spell where they were riding high in the poles and everything seemed to
4:30
be going their way and that has stopped because of the questions around you know zach polanski
4:36
and some of the missteps that he's made and look you know but also around starma yes and also around
4:42
Starmer that Starmer's gone now which was part of the reason why Polanski was so attractive and so
4:47
a lot of what gave him momentum has gone and how you get that back is not easy in politics. Well
4:54
on that I mean whether it's green issues or other issues one of the reasons that Labour because of
5:00
Starmer leaked so much support lost so much support was because left-wing voters looked at
5:08
it and thought hang on this doesn't look left-wing at all to me but Andy Burnham's been sending two
5:13
messages hasn't he continuity from Andy Burnham don't frighten the horses but also I will change
5:19
tack if I need to I will look again at net I am looking again at net zero I did look again
5:23
at PC Andrew Harper and he he's got that populist he can do populism Andy Burnham can't he and he
5:30
can certainly do left-wing he can he can read public mood look you know the old thing about
5:35
Andy Burnham being a political chameleon. Yeah, that's true to a point
5:38
I think it's, you know, he has changed tax. He has moved when he's seen which way a wind is blowing
5:44
But that is also about good politics. It's part of the skill, yeah. That's part of the skill. And the fact of the matter is
5:50
I think that what Andy Burnham has shown, you know Tony Benn used to say oh go on I going back into political history I love it keep going Yeah Tony Benn used to say you know remember it about policies not personalities And he was wrong That was a good impersonation He was wrong That was a good impersonation
6:04
He was wrong. It is about personalities. And Andy Burnham has got personality and electability
6:10
And Keir Starmer, despite many, you know, attributes, didn't. And I think that has changed the political calculus
6:17
and that is why I think I would love to know how much agonising Polanski went into about whether to
6:28
go for it or not whether he could have sidestepped it and thought look there are more important things for me to do because it is a tough it's a you know it really is going to be an uphill climb
6:36
I mean it'll be a fascinating by-election it'll be a circus I think Labour have got to figure out
6:40
how they want to fight it is it going to be nasty because that isn't part of the new Andy Burnham
6:45
politics you know which is about congeniality it's about reaching across the aisle it's about
6:50
finding the good in your opponents so i i kind of remain to be convinced but it's uh that big win
6:56
in gorton that they had gordon denton that the greens had that was for very specific reasons as
7:01
well wasn't it not least uh reform exactly and so i you know and reform in holborn and st pancras
7:11
are nowhere no i mean they're a very small kind of you know and and i see zia yusuf has posted
7:17
about potentially uh the person who is going to be the later labor candidate and he's talking about
7:24
that she the fact that she was born in somalia can you see what is going on i think he writes
7:29
in the tweet and i think sorry what do you mean british citizen who's given her life to a degree
7:34
of public service what so what is your point exactly um and that will probably help her
7:40
and probably help Labour thinking, you know, if she's going to come under attack like that
7:45
then, you know, maybe we need to stand with this woman. And it was interesting to see Emily Thornberry step in on social media
7:52
in Zach Polanski's, in support of Zach Polanski, not for him to win the seat, of course
7:57
but people saying, what do you know about the Camden area? What do you know about this part of London
8:02
And she stepped in and said, this is just nonsense now. Clearly he knows about this area
8:06
He stood as a councillor and he'll know about it anyway because people don't just sit in one place as party leader
8:11
They go everywhere. Well, it's, you know, the idea that he is being parachuted in
8:15
What, from East London? You can just take a bus. Honestly, you don't need a paratroop airlift
8:23
and a parachute down into Camden. You can just take the bus or the tube
8:27
So I think that sort of stuff is silly. There's bound to be some, you know, again, we'll see when it starts
8:33
and whether he is ultimately the candidate. But there's bound to be some back and forth about net zero, isn't there
8:38
Given where the newly led Labour government now is on that. Yeah, and it's interesting that Zach Polanski came to the fore
8:46
by not talking about any of those issues. I mean if you look at what propelled Polanski into the public eye as much as it did it was much more to do with Gaza than it was to do with net zero And that will feature again no doubt Yes but I think that you know he probably thinks that you know
9:04
Primrose Hill is in the constituency. He'll look at that parched, you know, where all the television cameras have been this summer
9:09
It's kind of grey, you know, this sort of parched, dry area. And I think that he will go on the environment
9:15
and talking about, you know, global warming, about what should happen, about, you know
9:20
whether the licences should be granted for Jackdaw and Rosebank, all those sort of things
9:25
So I think that you might see a bit more of what we can think of
9:29
as traditional green politics in this by-election. Not least because Andy Burnham is going on and on and on, rightly
9:35
about energy bills and utilities and things like that. And, you know, if the water isn't a green policy area, what is
9:44
You know, it's bound to be, isn't it? Yeah, look, it is potentially fertile territory, fertile dry soil for Andy Burnham and, you know, for Polanski
9:58
And he could do very well. But I think the politics has changed because of the, you know, Andy Burnham becoming prime minister
10:05
The politics has changed, which led to Greens getting the support that they were getting
10:10
It's interesting what you say there about it. and I think it is one of the key questions
10:14
if not the key question, how many Labour voters in that constituency
10:19
or people inclined to vote Labour shifted their attentions to Zach Polanski's Green Party
10:25
because of Keir Starmer and how many of them will pivot straight back
10:29
to where they feel much more at home? Yeah, I think that. I think there'll be some tactical voting
10:34
as there always is in by-elections now, where, you know, tactical voting for him
10:39
tactical voting against him. It's going to be a good one to watch
10:44
It is. I had a caller yesterday who voted reform in 2024
10:49
who was fanboying on Andy Burnham and saying he's come back to the Labour fold
10:56
it's all change, it's all different. That was just one man, but telling, isn't it? Interesting
11:01
I think that politics has got really interesting again. I saw an opinion poll this week
11:07
that had the Tories back in second place for the first time in a long time
11:12
Reform are going to be trying to regain momentum when they have their conference in Birmingham
11:16
you know, tomorrow, Saturday. I think that, you know, I wouldn't bet on anything at the moment
11:23
Labour seem to have got momentum. That's undoubtedly clear. That Labour are in a better position than they were
11:28
than in the dog days of Keir Starmer. The Tories have a leader who's doing business
11:32
The Tories have a leader who is competent. Reform still has a significant
11:37
and significant support in this country. And the Greens are trying to regain momentum
11:42
So it will all get played out in St Pancras, you know, area
11:47
And we'll be there. Holding in St Pancras and the poor people who will be getting endless leaflets through their letterbox
11:52
Can they make the souffle rise again is the big question. Thank you very much, John. John Sopel, host of the News Agents
11:56
That will drop at five o'clock
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