Up next in 10
After the SNP's victory in the Scottish elections, Sinn Fein's leader Michelle O’Neill has said it was “the first time ever there could be three pro-independence first ministers across these islands”. 00:00 | Matthew Wright is joined by LBC's Scotland Political Editor Gina Davidson to analyse the Holyrood results. 02:52 | Matthew Wright is then joined by SNP member Dave Doogan, who says there is a 'pro-independence majority' in the Scottish Parliament. 07:40 | Matt Frei is joined by Jim Murphy, former Scottish Labour leader 11:16 | Matt Frei is joined by Plaid Cymru peer Baroness Carmen Smith to discuss the Senedd election results in Wales 13:57 | Ali Miraj ponders on what this means for the future of the Union 19:00 | LBC's Wales Correspondent Bronwen Weatherby gives an update Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #lbc #matthewwright #mattfrei #alimiraj #keirstarmer #elections #uk #england #wales #scotland #northernireland #devolution #indepedence #scottishindependence #referendum #ukpolitics #politics LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Now, Scotland, Scotland, if it was first past the post, I think people would say possibly the SNP's reign north of the border is unassailable
0:10
That said, they didn't win an overall majority. I'm joined by Gina Davison, LBC Scotland's political editor. Good morning to you, Gina
0:18
Morning, Matthew. So, how are things north of the border? What's your perspective post-Thursday
0:24
Well, it's an unprecedented fifth term for the SNP in government after 19 years
0:31
I mean, and really at a time when people were getting a bit fed up with them
0:35
the domestic record wasn't great. But John, and of course they had all their internal problems since Nicholas Sturgeon stood down
0:42
But John Swinney, when he took over, I think the SNP would tell you
0:46
they predicted to win around 35 seats in the next Holyrood election when it came along
0:52
yesterday they won 58 so not only has he steadied that ship you know he really has turned it around
0:59
he has I think removed the chaos that existed within the SNP
1:05
but at the same time let's face it he's also been very lucky
1:08
they lost a whole string of MPs into 2024 at the general election to Labour
1:14
here in Scotland reduced to just nine and I think if the Hollywood election
1:19
have been held the same day. Anna Sarver would have been put in Butte House then too. But ever
1:24
since then, he has seen support for Labour just slowly drift away. He's been undermined, he says
1:31
by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves' decisions at Westminster. And as a result, yesterday
1:38
after just seven seats were declared, he threw in the towel and said Labour were not going to
1:43
get anywhere near winning that election. So the SNP absolutely cock-a-hoop, as you might imagine
1:49
the largest party again in Holyrood. They will make the government, but I think critically did
1:55
not get that outright majority that John Swinney said he wanted. He said he was going to win 66
2:01
MSPs. He didn't do that. They have lost six since 2021. So whether or not he will stick by what he
2:10
He said during the campaign that he needed a majority to ask for a Section 30 order to have a second independence referendum
2:17
We will have to wait and see. I think, Matthew, it's highly doubtful that he's going to park that issue for the next five years because he didn't get that majority
2:24
And the Greens, too, who are pro-independence, they had the best day they've ever had in a Holyrood election and are sitting pretty
2:33
So there's a pro-independence majority once again in Holyrood. they will declare that that's a mandate for a second independence referendum
2:41
But I also doubt very much that any UK Prime Minister is going to
2:45
accede to that and allow one to happen. Gina Davison, thank you
2:49
LBC Scotland's political editor who set me up very nicely for my guest Dave Dugan
2:53
who's sitting here in front of me instead of back in his constituents in Angus and the Perthshire Glens, which is my win today
3:00
I thought Gina set it up very nicely there, Talking about how well John Swinney has done for the SNP
3:07
despite the fact no overall majority, makes me wonder whether it was a pro-SNP vote
3:15
or whether what you've seen north of the border is a rejection of the other parties
3:22
Politics is a mutually exclusive endeavour. So, you know, there's going to be elements of that
3:27
But let's not underestimate or understate what it is for the SMP to have won a record-breaking fifth term in government
3:36
And remember, we came into government in 2007, the year before the financial crash, where things got very bad in the United Kingdom
3:44
And they've got incrementally worse every year since. So it's against that backdrop of the financial crash and Brexit and Covid and everything else that the SNP have managed to substantially invest in the social contract in Scotland
3:58
And voters in Scotland are canny. I guess they are everywhere. They know that they might not like the SNP in everything and they might not like certain characters within the SNP
4:07
But that puts us on an equal footing with every political party. They know that they've got a far better deal in our part of the United Kingdom than people elsewhere in the United Kingdom
4:16
and that's worth voting for and that's what we saw in this record. But 58 seats, 40% of the vote and we'll have topped the list
4:25
despite not getting any list seats as well. So the SNP has been endorsed by the people of Scotland as Scotland's party
4:33
Gina said, and I see no reason to disagree with her, that she cannot foresee a Westminster government
4:39
acceding to Scotland's request for an independence referendum. referendum and I just wonder whether that sense in Scotland that this political elite down in
4:51
Westminster are dictating your fortunes is whether you're an SNP voter or any other voter it's that
4:58
that rankles the idea that you are being controlled from an institution hundreds of miles away
5:04
Well a hundred percent and and to say that Westminster will continue to say no suggests
5:09
that Westminster's on the top of its game and that the government is holding all the cards
5:13
I mean, I don't think that's any... That's a realistic assessment of where we are politically
5:18
in the United Kingdom just now. So I speak to people on the doorsteps all the time
5:22
who will rail against certain domestic policies that the SNP have enacted
5:26
And then my partner's shot will be, and where are you on independence? Are you for independence? Oh, absolutely, I'm for independence
5:31
So this idea that we have these neat tramlines in Scotland where everybody who supports independence
5:37
supports the SNP is naive. It's not like that at all. And wherever you are on the pro or anti-independence spectrum in Scotland
5:45
the SNP isn't demanding independence. We're demanding a say on independence. And Gina said, I'll correct that a little bit
5:53
she said that John Swinney said, I need a majority to get a mandate for independence
6:00
That's not strictly true. We have a mandate for independence. We are by far the most popular party in Scotland
6:05
There's a pro-independence majority in the Parliament. The SNP have always pursued independence, but that majority would have allowed us to trigger UK precedent
6:13
Very briefly, I was struck on other political shows that as soon as John Sweeney was up
6:19
the only question that people wanted to ask about was independence. And yet it strikes me that the SNP stands for much more than just a single issue
6:29
Is the desire for independence, is it frustrating? Does it feel frustrating sometimes that it gets in the way of other SNP policies
6:40
Like you said the people of Scotland feel they having a much better deal than the rest of the United Kingdom It doesn get in the way I mean I got into politics to deliver Scotland or to help deliver Scotland from this United Kingdom not through any enmity for any other part of the United Kingdom
6:54
but Scotland is a proud ancient nation and would have a far better future in control of its own resources and affairs
6:59
So independence, and also on the domestic policy agenda, where we're struggling on health
7:04
where we're struggling on transport and investment and a brighter future for our communities
7:08
that isn't some abstract issue. That is a direct function of remote and unaccountable
7:16
usually unaccountable rule. In Westminster, they continue to hold all the big levers
7:20
despite the progress we've made with the devolved powers that we enjoy
7:24
Nothing is a substitute for independence, which is precisely why Westminster is so reluctant to give it to us
7:30
If they thought we would lose, they'd give us a referendum tomorrow. Dave Dugan, I'm inclined to agree
7:35
Pleasure seeing you and congratulations on a fantastic result. Let's speak first of all to Jim Murphy, the former leader of the Scottish Labour Party
7:45
Jim, it's good to have you on the programme. Good morning, Matt. So Labour had a terrible night across the board, and that includes in Scotland
7:53
I mean, is Labour still a national party for the United Kingdom
7:58
You're right to say it was a terrible night. I mean, it was a terrible night in Scotland
8:05
It's a traumatic event in Wales. and of course Northern Ireland didn't have elections
8:11
The Labour wouldn't stand there anyway, but we now have a situation where you mentioned earlier
8:17
where all three of the devolved governments are led by people who want to see the end of the United Kingdom
8:23
And okay, the Welsh nationalists are a tepid version of separatism at the moment because they don't push it very hard
8:33
In Scotland the SNP won again Confounding their critics But they made a mistake
8:40
And it sometimes sounds Churlish to say that the people who won
8:44
Made a mistake, because it's usually the people That lose that you say have made all the mistakes
8:48
But for those who don't Live in Scotland, the leader of the
8:52
SNP, John Swinney, said That if his party won a majority In the Scottish Parliament
8:57
That would be a mandate for independence They didn't win a majority
9:03
It's now not clear what he does. So I think the union of the United Kingdom is under very considerable strain
9:11
but I don't think it's on the cusp of being broken. But does Labour have an answer in Scotland to that strain
9:20
So two years ago, Labour swept the board in Scotland. And they haven't yet, look, for nearly 20 years
9:28
the Labour Party hasn't been able to simultaneously design an argument that wins them power and seats in the UK Parliament
9:38
while also doing the same in the Scottish Parliament. And you think two decades in they would have learned their lessons
9:46
but at the moment they don't seem capable of doing it. And it's extraordinary, is it not
9:53
that the party that people have turned to in Scotland, if it's not the SNP, in huge numbers, is Reform UK
10:01
Reform UK, you know, you could describe as a kind of, as far as it gets, a nationalist English party
10:08
that has now parked its tanks on Scottish lawns. Yeah, there's something happening to centre-left parties
10:15
in the major democracies, particularly in Europe, but elsewhere too. If you think of Scotland, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain
10:26
Centre left parties are finding it really difficult to navigate politics where there's genuine polarisation
10:34
and where the algorithm drives people towards content that's designed to hate someone else
10:41
And that politics of moderation, the politics of relative progressivism, the politics of let's just try and fix the health service
10:50
and the education system, that is out of favour. not only in the UK, but across many major democracies
10:59
So I know people talk about should Labour get rid of Keir Starmer. I promise you, the questions for the Labour Party are much deeper
11:06
than who leads the party. I couldn't agree with you more. You must have heard the beginning of my programme
11:11
Jim Murphy, thank you very much indeed for coming on. Let's move straight to Wales and Baroness Carmen Smith
11:18
who is a Plaid Cymru peer in the House of Lords. Baroness Smith, good morning to you
11:23
Good morning. Well done on your vote in Wales. I mean, it is historic. It is an earthquake
11:30
But to what extent do you think this is a vote for Plaid or a vote against Keir Starmer and Labour
11:38
Well, I think that this election was mainly about who the Welsh people have faith in
11:44
to run our public services in Wales, to create jobs, tackle poverty
11:50
and I think what this result means really is that the people of Wales have put faith in a party
11:58
that is rooted in Wales' best interests and there were two very different visions on the table
12:05
and the people of Wales have spoken and chosen a vision for a positive future
12:11
And how does your vision of the future differ from Reform UK's vision for the future of Wales
12:18
the second party in Wales? Our vision as a party, the manifesto that we put forward, that we have been elected as the largest party on, is rooted in tackling the issues that people raise on the doors around cutting NHS waiting lists, supporting families, tackling poverty in a way that we haven't seen done by the Labour government that we have had in Wales for 27 years
12:46
So the way you describe it, it sounds as if you're trying to do the job that Labour failed to do, but better
12:52
What this is not about is a nationalist vote. The way you describe it, it may be that as well, but not primarily
12:59
This election wasn't about independence. This election was about how a new government needs to improve services for people and make people's lives better
13:12
and the vision that we put forward is the one that people across Wales supported
13:19
Do you think that at some stage in the next five years or ten years
13:23
an independence referendum for Wales in Wales could be on the cards
13:29
An independence referendum was not in our manifesto But could it be in the future I am a pro supporter However if Wales is ever independent in the future one day
13:43
that will be fully up to the people of Wales. So that is currently not on the cards for applied country government
13:51
Baroness Carmen Smith, applied in the House of Lords. Thank you very much indeed for coming on the programme
13:55
we're unpicking all the local elections uh today uh i'm taking a different uh tack on this hour but
14:03
as i say uh you can get involved in any aspect of this local election ysis you want to i'm not
14:09
being as draconian as normal so you know feel free to get involved if you want to pick up the phone
14:14
but i do want to frame it around uh this question loosely which is this uh is it time for the four
14:21
nations of the UK to go their separate ways because, because Sinn Féin's first minister
14:28
of Northern Ireland has pledged to work with her separatist counterparts in Wales and Scotland
14:34
to break up the union. Michelle O'Neill acclaimed the Scottish National Party's
14:41
so-called landslide win. Well, it wasn't a landslide win. I don't know what the Telegraph
14:45
smoking here. It wasn't a landslide win. They were the largest party, but it's not an outright
14:49
majority so i don't know quite what kind of reporting this is but anyway um and also plied
14:55
cumry's gains which have put the party on the cusp of power for the first time in wales plied
15:00
cumry winning the largest number of seats not an outright majority but first time ever that's
15:04
happened the shinbane vice president wrote that it was the first time ever there could be three
15:11
pro-independence first ministers across these islands miss o'neill claimed that the election
15:16
results showed that more and more people are looking towards a future beyond the constraints
15:23
of the union. She also said that their growing demand for independence cannot be ignored
15:30
and she was looking forward to working closely with the SNP's John Swinney and Plaid Cymru's
15:37
Renup Owerth. Reiterating her warning, she posted a message on X, well where else, about historic
15:46
change that was retweeted by Hamza Youssef, the former SNP leader. We don't really hear much from
15:52
him these days. Mary Lou Macdonald, the president of Sinn Fein, said it was a landmark day for the
15:58
future of the union, as she looked forward, and she looked forward rather, to working with the
16:03
SNP and Plaid Cymru in the spirit of friendship, solidarity and real progress for the people of
16:10
our nations. Now, the election of three separatist devolved governments threatens to put
16:16
significant strain on the UK and become a major headache for Sakeir Starman. I mean, he's got enough headaches
16:22
as it is, but here's another one for him. Mr. Swinney, this is the leader of the
16:28
SNP, the Scottish National or Nationalist Party, I can't remember what they
16:32
call it now. Nationalists, they are nationalists. Mr. Swinney said during the election campaign
16:38
that he was keen to work with Sinn Féin and Plaid Cymru on breaking up the UK
16:43
And the First Minister of Scotland, John Swinney, is currently speaking at an SNP news conference
16:48
Here, just a few minutes ago, he wasn't mincing his words. I want to make it abundantly clear
16:52
that to somebody who has believed in independence all his adult life
16:56
and who wants to make sure Scottish independence happens, that the people of Scotland must be able to have a choice
17:02
about their future, and I intend to make sure that happens. Well, that was the First Minister of Scotland
17:08
and leader of the Scottish National Party, John Swinney, there, talking about independence
17:13
Look, I want to ask you this question pretty directly because it's the first time this has happened, right
17:18
I mean, Swinney, yes, the SNP have been in power since 2007. First time in Wales that Labour dominance
17:25
has been completely crushed. Since 1999, Labour's been in power in Wales
17:31
and they've been dominant there for 100 years. Plaid Cymru, now the dominant or leading party
17:37
in the place. And I remember this, when I stood for, I've got deep affection for Wales
17:43
because I stood for Parliament there in my first parliamentary election in 2001, where I used to
17:47
stand on a milk crate without a megaphone, asking people to vote for me as a Tory candidate. And
17:52
people came up to me and said, you've got guts hanging around here saying that. And they used
17:56
to say to me, Labour can put up a donkey around here and still get elected. Well, Labour, I don't
18:01
know. I don't want to say if the Labour candidates were donkeys or not. I don't want to be disparaging
18:06
about Labour candidates, but I tell you what, Plaid Cymru's had its day
18:11
Is it time for the four nations of the UK to go their separate ways
18:16
0345 6060 973, text 84850. I'd like to hear from you. If you are in Scotland, in Wales
18:24
you might be in Northern Ireland as well, what do you think? And if you're in England, have you had enough of all this separatist nonsense
18:30
And would you like to see the back of these people? And do you think that they want to have their cake and eat it
18:35
I mean, do you really think, do you really think that the Welsh and Plaid Cymru, to be fair, have kept a bit of a low key on this
18:41
Do you really think that they're going to go independent? I mean, can you imagine Reena Perworth and Plaid Cymru having their own independent nuclear deterrent
18:51
Sorry, sorry, I shouldn't laugh. Is it time for our four nations to go, of the UK, to go their separate ways
18:57
Your thoughts? 03456060973. Joining me is Bronwyn Weatherby, LBC's Welsh correspondent. joining us from Cardiff. Bronwyn, they must be absolutely over the moon
19:10
Oh, they really are. I mean, you can probably still hear people milling around
19:15
but there were, a few months ago, hundreds of people stood around me cheering
19:19
Welsh flags, Plaid Cymru placards. You know, Reena Björwitz took to the steps of the Senedd
19:27
and got massive cheer, as you can probably imagine. The atmosphere absolutely jubilant
19:32
And people can't believe it. I spoke to the granddaughter, actually, of one of the founding members of Plaid Camry
19:38
and she said she didn't think that this would happen in her lifetime
19:42
So that gives you an idea of just how big this is for them
19:47
Bronwyn, how have the Labour Party reacted? Obviously, the Labour leader in Wales really completely dumbfounded or awestruck by what's happened
19:58
I mean, was this expected? Was it priced in? I mean, even if it was priced in, I mean, it must be a huge psychological shock for them
20:06
Yeah, I mean, I think it was a lot worse than they could have even contemplated, really
20:11
I mean even in the morning we were told by Labour that they were expecting 10 seats And that was a shock You could really see that on their faces They ended up with nine so one less than their worst scenario in the morning
20:27
I think Alina Morrigan, the leader of Welsh Labour, although she didn't want to admit it publicly
20:32
knew it was going to be a bad day for them, a tough day for them
20:37
But since then, I've spoken to members of the Labour Party, many of which have lost their jobs, by the way
20:43
who have called it catastrophic, devastating, all the words you can imagine
20:48
And there's going to be a lot of introspection for them to do in the coming weeks and months and years, probably
20:55
because they're going to have to figure out a way of becoming the winning force that they once were
21:00
if they're able to again, because as you pointed out, they have over 100 years of dominance here
21:05
27 years of governing the Senate. They were the only party who had ever governed the Senate
21:12
So it is a big shock for them. I think they'll be laying low for the weekend, that's for sure
21:17
Now tell me about reform, because it was only a few months ago that some people were saying that there would be a seismic upset
21:24
in that reform could take the Senate. In the end, they ended up with 34 seats
21:30
which is still a massive, massive result for them. But is it seen as underperformance in some way, Bronwyn
21:36
It's interesting, isn't it? because reform weren't even in the last Senate election
21:41
So they have, you know, seemingly, as they have elsewhere in the country across the UK
21:46
come out of nowhere and managed to get 34 seats. I mean, as you said, that is huge
21:53
I think there's a feeling that they may have underperformed slightly in some of the areas that they thought they were going to overperform Clyde
22:03
So mainly in the Welsh Valleys, really, where Plaid ended up getting three seats and they got two, whereas they thought it was going to be the other way around
22:11
So they have, we're waiting to see if they're going to do anything this weekend
22:17
They have gone a bit quiet. But as you said, I mean, it's a huge win for them, really
22:22
They're going to be the main opposition. Absolutely. Now, Bronwyn, tell me about this, because am I just slightly deluded here
22:30
but I just get the sense that Plaid has been playing down the whole independence thing a bit
22:35
I mean, is that true? You're not wrong. They've said that all along throughout the campaign
22:42
that independence isn't on the ballot. So it wasn't even in their manifesto
22:47
And this is obviously a Welsh nationalist party. Independence is their raison d'etre
22:52
It is the foundation of their beliefs as a party that Wales should be independent
22:57
But what they've said is they are not even going to approach, you know, sort of going for a referendum in the next four years
23:08
They say it's completely off the ballot, that they're not going to do it this time around, that is
23:15
But that isn't to say they're not going to start laying the groundwork. work. They're in their manifesto. They had already priced in, I think it's £500,000 for a commission
23:26
looking into the pros and cons, or maybe just the pros of independence. And so you can see that they
23:33
are going to start laying the groundwork for getting the country ready for the referendum
23:39
But they don't feel like Wales is in the position that Scotland were a few years ago, where the
23:45
where, you know, the country's ready for a referendum. They say they've got a lot more to do to kind of fix the country
23:51
to fix the education system and the health system and so on. Bronwyn, before you go, did you bump into my old mate Captain Beanie
23:59
from the New Millennium Bean Party down there? Unfortunately, I didn't know
24:04
I was actually up in Vanderbilt in Alina Morgan's country, so I don't think you've entered that
24:08
Well, I know Captain Beanie very well because he stood against me in Port Talbot
24:12
when I was standing down in Aberaven in 2001, and he's a real character and he's still going
24:18
So lots of credit to him for taking part in the democratic process
24:22
Bronwyn, thank you. Really interesting to see what happens there. Bronwyn Weatherby, LBC's Wales correspondent
24:28
who is joining me from Cardiff. Look, if you're living in Wales or in Scotland
24:34
what does this mean for you? I mean, how do you feel about this? Because are you more concerned about your Plaid Cymru representatives
24:43
who are now going to basically form a government? They don't have a majority, but they're going to have to try and form a government somehow
24:48
And they should. Of course, they should. I mean, they've got 43 seats. They're in poll position
24:53
The SNP similarly doesn't have an outright majority, but they've been in power since 2007
24:58
But is your primary concern independence or is it actually good governance
25:02
governance because if you look at the snp and you look at almost 20 years of ruling scotland
25:10
has life actually got much better i mean has this been some economic success story i mean has it
25:18
become the monaco of the uk i mean have uh drug deaths which were the highest in europe gone down
25:25
Has it really created a very, very positive business environment? Is the NHS doing absolutely stellar work up there
25:36
I mean, how do you feel about it? I mean, how do you feel about the fact that they made that complete ridiculous decision on Isla Bryson
25:44
putting her in a, well, her, I use her in inverted commas
25:49
because biological male being put in a female prison, that didn't go down well
25:53
And there's also all that shenanigans to come with Peter Murrell and the investigation into, what is the investigation into now
26:02
Embezzlement of some kind? I can't remember the details, right? But we're going to hear all that, which won't be exactly much fun for the SNP
26:11
So John Swinney can be as bullish as he wants, but he didn't win a majority. But do you think they should actually focus on governing for a change than this whole independence thing
26:21
And if you're in England, how long can this continue? Now you've got Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland
26:28
You've got Plaid in Wales. You've got the SNP again in Scotland, yet again
26:34
You're getting a bit tired of this. You're getting a bit tired of feeling that people are free riding on your back here
26:40
And if it's all going to be about independence talk, then what about English independence talk
26:45
Sorry, you see, when you unleash referenda like the Brexit one, There are lots of ramifications to all of these things
26:53
I'm not saying there's a direct link, but the genie's out of the bottle now. It's all out of the bottle
26:58
Is it time for the four nations of the UK to go their separate ways? 0345 6060 973, text 84850
27:04
And if you want to make any comment generally about the local elections, you can get involved too
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