0:00
You know, that old cliche, a week in politics is a long time
0:02
I mean, it feels like a century, doesn't it? But at least some of that fog has been lifted
0:07
because it's now all crystallized into this by-election. I mean, from what you've heard, from your numbers
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from what you feel, from your instinct as a pollster, the question is to you, and I asked this to the Labour MPs
0:21
I interviewed at the beginning, is Andy Burnham's charisma as a local hero
0:27
and his record as the mayor of Manchester enough to override what is a seismic political shift in British politics
0:37
you know, a la Reform UK? He's already overcome one hurdle, which only a few weeks ago he was barred from
0:44
which was he was told he was not allowed to stand in Gorton and Denton by the NEC of the Labour Party
0:51
because he was mayor of Greater Manchester. suddenly instantaneously the fact that that barrier still exists becomes irrelevant
1:03
so as you say he is now he hasn't been officially selected yet this has to be a selection process
1:10
in makerfield but it's his own it's his home territory he and josh simons have chosen very
1:17
carefully and i think all the indications are that uh he has such a strong pull not only in
1:26
that constituency but across the northwest that the likelihood is that when he is the candidate
1:34
because i'm not even going to use the word if when he is the labor candidate he is likely to win the
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by-election and that is despite the fact that reform won every single ward in the maker field
1:46
constituency only last thursday right so it's fascinating isn't it because you know life is
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full of choices and sometimes these choices end up being good choices and sometimes they end up
1:57
being traps so let's imagine that he becomes uh he wins that seat labor might even crown him you
2:05
know immediately as the anointed king of the north who's now the king of everything and they will
2:09
think that andy burnham is the guy to defeat nigel farage in the next general election but three years
2:15
a very long time in which reform could mess up all the councils that it is now running
2:20
There could be more news about, you know, Nigel Fowler's financial shenanigans or not
2:25
And of course, Andy Burnham could run the country and the party in such a way that the markets
2:31
you know, throw their toys out of the plan. I mean, this is full of peril, isn't it? There's risks all along the line. Run up to the by-election
2:40
There'll be two people who probably don't want him to win. One is called Keir Starmer and the other one's Nigel Farrow
2:49
And I can think of a historic political parallel where there been people from different sides wanting a candidate to lose Then as you say once he becomes the candidate probably the MP because the polling suggests that he would win
3:09
And that's even if it's only against a reform candidate. There may well be Rupert Lowe's party as well standing for the first time in a by-election, which would make it even easier
3:21
The Greens have said that they're going to stand. All the parties will stand, all the main parties will stand
3:29
The question is whether Rupert Lowe decides to put in a candidate as well
3:33
So there will be a range of candidates, but I do think that Andy Burnham's appeal is such that he would win
3:41
Then, as you say, what happens thereafter? Well, if you'd been interviewing me last Saturday and said we would be in a position whereby there'd be a by-election, which Andy Burnham was clear favourite, etc., etc., I'm not sure I or you or your listeners would believe you
4:02
But I think the probability is that if he wins, he would be the favourite to become leader of the Labour Party
4:11
But that is in itself a process which is convoluted. A Labour friend of mine the other day texted me to say that our system in the Conservative Party was designed to achieve regicide
4:27
The Labour Party is designed to stop regicide. And possibly in light of a war
4:33
Absolutely. And we're going to be talking about this for months, because assuming Andy Burnham wins, there is then a process to go through in terms of elections, first of all within the parliamentary Labour Party, then with the Labour Party membership
4:50
And we have to remember, Andy Burnham has actually failed to become leader of the Labour Party on two previous occasions
4:57
So the reasons why he failed previously might suddenly become self-evident, despite the fact that he has now acquired this great charisma
5:09
And I like him personally, but as I say, he has failed twice
5:14
So the hurdles are there, and it only needs one slight trip at any point to stop him becoming prime minister
5:21
and then if he becomes prime minister, then you have... My experience of Tory party leadership changes
5:30
leaves a lot of blood on the carpet. There will be a lot of people who will want revenge against him
5:37
if he succeeds as leader of the Labour Party and that's revenge from within the Labour Party
5:43
So I can see this running and running. You be chatting to me intimately on a Saturday or any other day of the week That always a pleasure Robert That one of the upsides of all this drama I get to talk to you on a regular basis I mean it a danger also with Andy Burnham is that so many people especially those who like him
6:01
but even those who don't like him in the Labour Party have projected stuff onto him that may not be real
6:06
It may not be true. He's become a test of all our hopes and dreams
6:13
And then he might wilt under scrutiny. Well, that's the point. Having lost twice at the leadership elections, he has been found wanting by his own colleagues
6:24
And let's assume possibly that he wins, but not by a massive margin
6:30
Then people suddenly think, oh, hang on a second, he hasn't got that pulling power
6:35
But I do think one interesting point in the run up to the by-election, which reformers said on this occasion, they're going to throw everything at it
6:46
Now, in the run-up to Gorton and Denton, they said that they were going to win
6:51
It was, we're going to win, we're going to win, and I thought that was an error at the time because I always thought it was Greens to lose
6:57
Now they're being much more cautious, managing expectations much better. But as I say, if Andy Burnham wins, but not by a big margin
7:06
then the tectonic plates in the Labour Party may move yet again
7:10
and decide that they prefer West Streeting or John Healy or Al Carnes
7:15
or whoever. Because, I mean, one of the lessons of politics these days is that inevitability
7:20
rather like incumbency, you know, has its own peril. So if reform, who seem to be on this
7:26
incredible upswing, don't win in that by-election, I mean, that's a massive blow for them as well
7:32
This is also very risky for them. And they must be scratching their eyes out, pulling their hair
7:38
out, you know, to find a decent candidate. Well, they may be lucky. Reform may be lucky. But
7:44
Having said that, it's worth remembering that at the local elections this year
7:50
although they stormed home in Makerfield, their national equivalent share was down 4% in one measure
7:58
and 5% in another against last year. So they probably, for the moment, have reached their peak a year ago
8:06
Question mark, are they still going down or can they find another peak? What happens if Andy Burnham doesn't win
8:13
What happens then within the Labour Party? Oh, the fighting will still go on
8:17
Massively. Keir Starmer against West Street and possibly Angela Rayne and John Healy
8:23
Oh, a multiplicity of Ed Miliband as a potential person who's, again, led the party and lost
8:32
So there's no question whether Andy Burnham is there or not, the fighting within the Labour Party will continue
8:40
you, because there is no question, and I faced it while I was on the doorsteps over the last
8:45
few weeks there is an antipathy amongst the public towards Keir Starmer which is incredibly strong And the chances are that it ingrained in the populace and therefore they want change as do a large
9:00
part of the Labour Party in Westminster. As a Conservative peer, you're a more neutral
9:06
observer to the loathing of Keir Starmer than perhaps someone from the Labour benches
9:10
Why do you think this man, who's been accused of kind of being too incremental, being a
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little bit uncharismatic. I mean, you know, these are flesh wounds. They're not fatal
9:21
Why is he so loathed? It's because he campaigned on one set of very clear messaging about bringing
9:31
integrity, bringing management skills, etc., which he quite rightly criticised the likes of Boris
9:37
and Liz Truss for. And then as the moment he arrived, we had all the scandals about suits and
9:44
glasses and free tickets and then he immediately moved on to winter fuel allowance and farmers
9:50
and and it's you made a reference to him being slightly bland he had he cannot convey any warmth
10:01
to the public at large when he does the interviews we appears on television
10:06
there is no sense of warmth or emotion and and when you're in politics or in many other matters
10:13
whether it's journalism on these sorts of programmes or not. You have to convey a personality and he doesn't
10:19
Right. Final question. And you brought up the free suits and the free tickets, etc, etc
10:25
I mean, this was unbelievably stupid of the party to fall into that trap at the very beginning
10:30
But compare that to the five million quid in crypto that Nigel Farage was given by Chris Harbour
10:37
a pro-Brexit billionaire who is so patriotic that he's decided to live in Thailand
10:44
Now, how does that compare? Oh, there's no question that this 5 million
10:49
is going to be thrown at not just Nigel Farage, but reform in general
10:56
Will it damage them? Sorry? Will it damage them? Oh, yes. It's a question of the extent to which it damages
11:02
And populists, and Nigel Farage is one, actually managed to overcome certain issues
11:08
and he may overcome things better than most, but it's still going to damage reform
11:14
And because you're a Tory peer, I can't leave out your own dear party. The Tory party, what does it do in all this
11:18
in this Mexican standoff? Well, I described in another place the Tory achievement last week
11:28
as probably the end of the beginning. They've started covering from the disaster of July 24
11:37
They've stopped the bleeding. very, very long way to go. Yeah, they've stopped the bleeding
11:41
There's a bit of a pulse, but we're not exactly up and running yet, are we? Let's hear it. Or rather you
11:45
It's not that. I don't mean it in the first person plural in that sense
