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Arguments over the defence investment plan cost Keir Starmer his original Defence Secretary John Healey. Keir Starmer released the finalised plan today, and it will cost the government an extra £15bn. Andrew Marr is joined by new Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis and Admiral Lord West to discuss the new plan and whether it will be enough to keep us safe. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #andrewmarr #keirstarmer #ukpolitics #labourparty #defence #debate #lbc LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Let me put this baldly. These are dangerous times, and as a country, we are living an untruth
0:08
We've promised our NATO allies to get defence spending up to 5% of GDP by 2035
0:15
Today, with the defence investment plan, the government has laid out our national pathway
0:20
and it doesn't reach that. By 2030, when NATO thinks we may be attacked by Russia
0:26
will be at just 2.4%. NATO ranks its members in a league table
0:32
about how they're doing in meeting their promises. We are 31 out of 32 lurking right at the bottom
0:41
It's no wonder that around the world, allies are asking whether the UK can any longer be trusted
0:48
Today's media is full of overexcited stuff about new drone fleets and funky naval vessels
0:55
and autonomous wingmen for new fighter jets, well, I would strongly advise you not to be distracted by any of it
1:03
because in key areas, the money to buy it simply isn't there
1:07
Not in the short term, not in the long term. Today, you haven't seen, standing alongside Keir Starmer
1:15
as he talks about standing up against bullies and a huge historic shift for the nation
1:20
the chiefs of the defence staff nodding their agreement and clapping him
1:25
There's a reason for that. They know the truth. Indeed, I'm told that the sentence expressing their support
1:33
which was going to be in a speech by the Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis in the Commons this afternoon
1:38
was removed at the last minute at the insistence of the military high command
1:43
Yes, no doubt, some difficult decisions have been taken by the politicians
1:47
just to get the defence spent up to the extra £15 billion in the next four years, about half
1:55
of what is needed. But behind the headlines, the harder job of actually honouring our NATO
2:00
promises and properly protecting this country has been abruptly dropped in the lap of Andy
2:06
Burnham and whoever he chooses as his next Chancellor. Well, that is the job of leadership
2:12
he asked for it, but it will mean challenging the way the Treasury thinks. It'll mean telling
2:18
voters hard truths. It'll mean very uncomfortable choices. Is our Prime Minister in waiting up for
2:27
all of this? I very much hope so, because one way or another, not just the safety, but also now the
2:34
credibility of this country are at stake. Now, a little earlier, I was joined in the studio by the
2:40
Defence Secretary, Dan Jarvis. Secretary of State, welcome to the studio. Is it true that the Chiefs
2:47
of the Defence Staff asked you to remove a sentence from your speech saying that they
2:51
supported the DIP? Nobody asked me to remove anything. And I think you'll understand that
2:56
I'm not involved with the kind of minutiae of the drafting of a document. But I've worked
3:00
very closely with the Chief of the Defence Staff and with the Chiefs. They all welcome
3:04
the publication of the Defence Investment Plan. They don't back the numbers, do they
3:09
I don't think that's right. I've worked very closely since being appointed every single
3:14
day with the Chief of Defence Staff, work very closely with the Chiefs. They've had a really
3:19
really important input into this process. I know that they welcome the publication of the dip today
3:24
I think they've all now released their own statements in support of this plan
3:28
It's been a collaborative process, and in the short time I've had available to me, we've made
3:31
great strides. I'm really proud, actually, of the progress we've made over the past two weeks
3:35
and I'm really grateful to the Chiefs, not only for their service, but for the support they've
3:39
provided over the past couple of weeks or so. You inherited a really serious problem
3:43
I do understand that. But still, the money isn't there. We're nothing like got enough money for 5% by 2035
3:52
And as your predecessor said it 2 by 2030 when NATO expects we might be in a war with Russia And that is simply not enough Well the 15 billion pounds of new investment that we announced today Compared to the billion the army say they need
4:08
Andrew, if you look at the wider spending context, we've made a commitment today to spend £298 billion in defence
4:16
over the past four years, over the next four years. These are historically high levels of funding
4:21
and we've seen an increase of 27% in real terms. So this is a very significant investment in the defence of our nation
4:30
Is there going to be a requirement to spend more on defence? Yes, there is. But is this a major step in the right direction
4:36
Absolutely it is. Now, you said, I think, that the next spending review is going to have to put defence as number one
4:42
which means, in a sense, this problem is being thrust at Andy Burnham and whoever becomes his chancellor
4:49
I don't accept that. We've put forward today a plan that has £15 billion of investment in it that will create 60,000 jobs across the UK and will provide assurances to our allies that we are going to make the commitments or meet the commitments that we've made previously about achieving 3.5% of GDP on defence spending by 2035
5:11
This is a really big positive step in the right direction. Is there more to do in the future
5:15
Of course there is. But this will create 60,000 jobs. And as I say, it sits as part of a wider commitment to spend £298 billion
5:22
Well, as you know, NATO ranks all of its members as to how they're doing on their promises of spending more in defence
5:29
And at the moment, we are running 31 out of 32. We are the third biggest spender
5:36
That's a different question. It's a question of whether we're actually going to meet our commitments. I've just come back from the NATO Defence Secretary's conference in Brussels
5:44
I'll be going to Ankara with the Prime Minister next week. NATO looks to us for our leadership
5:48
That is leadership that we provided previously and will continue to provide in the future. The feedback that I've had today from allies, my counterparts from a range of different nations
5:57
is very positive about the contribution that we've made today. Are you happy that we are 31 out of 32
6:02
Well, I'm happy that we are a leading member of NATO, playing a leading role in terms of shaping policy of NATO
6:10
with the third largest spender behind the United States and Germany. We have a record of committing to defence spending that we should be proud of
6:17
But yes, there's more to do. But the right place to make that further spending commitment is in the context of the next spending review
6:24
We've made good progress today, though. One of the issues around this has been the Treasury being very, very reluctant to find new ways to raise money for defence
6:33
including some kind of war or defence bond, as we used to do in the Second World War and other countries are doing right now
6:39
Now, you and others have said that you're open to that kind of thing
6:44
Do you think we need a little bit more imagination, a little bit more radicalism, a little bit more lateral thinking from the Treasury might get us out of this trouble
6:52
Well, firstly, let me say I've had really constructive and productive meetings with the Chancellor over the past couple of weeks
6:57
And I'm really pleased that we've been able to get additional resource to fund this investment plan that we published today
7:03
I think I've got quite a hard job to do as a Defence Secretary, given the world that we're living in
7:07
but the Chancellor has a very difficult job to do as well. She has to be able to provide the resources
7:12
She's no fan of war bonds, is she? Well, I think that she understandably makes the point
7:17
about the importance of sustainable funding for defence. If we want to be credible about the commitments that we make
7:22
and we do, we need to be clear about the way in which we're going to fund the commitments that we make
7:28
That was not the case under the previous government. It is the case under this government
7:32
But the Germans, for instance, have found new ways to fund a big, big increase in defence
7:37
Why can't we? I think we are seeking to look innovatively about whether there are other mechanisms to provide support for our defence expenditure
7:46
Of course, we want to keep that under review and look at what our allies are doing
7:50
But I think the most important point is, in the end, if you're making commitments to invest in our defence infrastructure, our capabilities and in our people
7:58
you've got to be clear about how you're going to pay for those particular commitments. And we have been clear We talking now in a very strange political atmosphere a kind of hiatus between the Starmer years and almost certainly the Burnham years Have you had any conversations with Andy Burnham about this So Andy Burnham is someone that I know very well because we both
8:15
served together as Metro mayors. I know that he understands the huge importance of securing the
8:21
nation, the importance of defence, the importance of our national security. All Labour prime
8:26
ministers understand the importance of making sure that you've got the right resource and the right
8:31
capabilities. That, over the past two weeks, is what I've been drawing together. More money
8:35
sharper capabilities, and a clear commitment to meet the 3.5% target that we'd identified
8:41
previously. I have absolutely no doubt that the next Prime Minister, no doubt it will likely be
8:48
of course, Andy Burnham, that he will honour those commitments and he understands the importance of
8:52
defending our nation. And when you say that, have you spoken to him? Well, I'm not going to get into
8:56
sort of private conversations. But of course, I'm talking to Andy and his team of people
9:01
as they prepare for what the Prime Minister this morning described as being an orderly
9:05
transition. Of course, he understands the importance of defence. Of course, he understands
9:09
the importance of making sure we've got the right resource and the right capabilities
9:13
And in the two weeks that I've had as the Defence Secretary, I've worked night and day
9:17
to make sure that we can publish the best possible plan. It will generate 60,000 jobs
9:22
£298 billion of expenditure. I think that's not bad going for two weeks
9:26
It is only two weeks. And you took over, of course, because of the drama of John Healy
9:30
one of the most loyal Labour ministers I've come across, resigning because he thought this was just an impossible position
9:37
Did you make any demands or requirements of the prime minister before taking over the job
9:41
Well, the commitment I made was to do right by defence and do right by the people who serve in our own forces
9:46
So did you say to Keir Starmer, this might mean more money? The Prime Minister wouldn't have appointed me other than for the fact that he knew that I would fight for more defence spending
9:57
That is what I have done. That is what I've secured. That is what I will continue to do
10:02
I will want to do right by defence, right by armed forces. We've made good progress in terms of doing that in the past two weeks, both in terms of the quantum of the resource and in terms of the capabilities
10:12
There's more to do, though, and I'm determined to do it. It must have been a heck of a two weeks. Are you keen to stay on as Defence Secretary
10:19
It's a huge honour and a privilege to serve in defence. It feels to me like I've come home
10:23
but ultimately, before the next Prime Minister to choose the members of his cabinet. All right, Dan Jarvis, thanks very much indeed for coming in
10:29
Thank you. Admiral Lord West is a former First Sea Lord and was Chief of the Naval Staff during the Blair years
10:36
And he's with me now, Lord West, thanks for coming in. Is it really true, do you think, that the senior people in the armed forces
10:43
back this defence investment plan? I would be extremely surprised if deep down they do
10:48
but they're, of course, loyal. And when you're in your post as a First Sea Lord or a Chief of the Air Staff
10:54
you're working for the government and you have to say sometimes what you have to say, even though it goes against the grain
10:58
The reason this has taken so long, this plan, is because they could not get this sorted out
11:04
And I think it's rather sad that after that huge gestation period, it still isn't right
11:11
And it's clear that it's not going to be sorted out until the next parliament, actually
11:16
Where, in your view, are the big gaps? I think, first of all, there's the financial one
11:21
We made big promises to NATO. We said we'd go to 3.5% by 2035, with 1.5% doing resilience and things, intelligence and all that sort of stuff
11:30
Quite clearly, at the moment, there's no plans to get anywhere near it. We said we'd have been 3% by 2030
11:37
It's quite clear we're going to be at 2.7%. So there's no plan to get that
11:42
I think that NATO, the NATO governments will look at us and say
11:46
my God, you know, the Brits always used to be the most powerful of the European NATO countries
11:52
They always provided the weaponry required. And I mean, speaking just as a naval officer
11:58
they relied on us in the European side to look after the Atlantic
12:02
Yes, they had a few ships, but actually UK did it. That has all changed Do you think this damages our credibility I think it damages our credibility certainly with NATO And of course sitting on the wings there is dear old Trump You know
12:16
whatever one wants to think of him. And he's going to be watching this very closely. And
12:20
the Americans, let's face it, we cannot rely on them in the way we used to
12:25
Looking particularly at the Navy, that was, you know, your old service. There was there
12:30
were going to be lots of new destroyers and frigates coming down the horizon. They don't
12:34
seem to be coming now, and we seem to have some new ships which will be in charge of drone operations
12:40
I don't quite understand. Do you understand what the shape of the Navy, according to this, is going to be
12:45
It's not really clear, but I have no difficulty with going down the route
12:48
of having command ships controlling lots of drones. I think there's a long way to go until submarine drones
12:54
and surface water drones and things can be handled en masse in the North Atlantic in a Gale Force 10
13:02
I think there's a very long way to go. But I don't instinctively have something against that, looking at the future
13:08
But this is a diversion from where the real problem is. This is talking about something in 10 years' time
13:14
If you look back 10 years ago, just think what has happened in the world. And they're talking about providing capital expenditure for something that's not even designed yet
13:22
They haven't worked it through in 10 years' time. Where we need money is now up front because we need to ensure that our destroyers, for example
13:30
the Type 45s, a very good ship. Only one of them has been getting out
13:34
It took two weeks to get one to Cyprus because there's not been sufficient maintenance, spare gear
13:39
We need to get them operational. We need them to have upgraded weapon systems
13:44
Similarly with our nuclear attack submarines, highly capable, hugely expensive, and they haven't been going to sea
13:50
We've got to make sure we spend the money on maintenance. We've got to spend the money on exercising
13:54
And, of course, in the frigate force, dear old frigates, because it's taken so long to order frigates
13:59
they're all falling apart, and we're going to have an even worse gap. We will have almost no ships
14:04
When the war started in the Gulf... Forrest, just to stop you there, almost no ships for how long
14:10
Well, that's going to be... In 2027, the first of the 26s should start coming off the production line
14:16
and I think then about one every two years will be another one. That's hardly speedy
14:20
And the first of the type, 31s, which are a rather cheaper frigate will
14:25
But what the government should be having in place is not saying we've got an order of six of these
14:30
and the Norwegians have got some as well from us, they should be saying we want a rolling programme of shipbuilding
14:36
That might morph into different type as we go on, but getting rid of all your hard steel and ships
14:42
that you can guarantee to go all around the world, I think is extremely dangerous
14:47
Andy Burnham talked a lot in his speech at the beginning of the week about re-industrialisation
14:52
Is this the kind of project that he should be focusing on? I think it is. I think there is a real option
14:57
I know they mentioned it in here and they mentioned it before that in defence that one can get a lot of defence jobs
15:02
and they're all high-tech. They're well-paid, high-tech jobs. We are actually good at them if we put our money where our mouth is
15:09
I'm involved with a firm that's making radio-controlled and unmanned boats. You know, the Americans have just bought 1,000 of them
15:17
So we can do some really good things. And this leads me to the other big question that people always talk about
15:22
which is procurement and the MOD's notorious failure to do it very well
15:27
The Ukrainians are building massive numbers of drones with small companies to base in garages and back lots and so forth
15:35
Are we going to have to think totally differently about the way we procure defence
15:39
I think we absolutely will. And if you think back to the Second World War, little tiny companies, cabinet makers, people making furniture
15:45
were suddenly making mosquito aircraft and this sort of thing. And I think we need to think in that way
15:50
When you're fighting and it looks as though there might be a fight, you have to think very, very differently
15:55
Otherwise, you'll have sort of unpleasant Russian Chechen guys walking down the high street, raping and shooting people
16:02
and then welfare and National Health Service actually count as nothing. And the new roundabout, exactly. Exactly so
16:10
Dangerous times, Lord West. Thank you very, very much indeed for coming in and talking to me. Thank you
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