Up next in 10
James O'Brien reacts after Reform UK won the knife-edge Runcorn by-election against Labour following a dramatic recount.
The race between Reform's Sarah Pochin and Labour candidate Karen Shore was separated by just four votes, leading Labour to demand a recount.
But several hours later, the news came in that Reform had indeed won the race by just six votes, in what will go down as the closest race in by-election history.
James recalls Carol Vorderman’s ‘bonkers’ prediction about Keir Starmer that may no longer be so ridiculous following the by-election results.
'I cannot ignore the people who tell me the Labour leader is the problem,' he remarks.
Listen to the full show on Global Player: https://app.af.globalplayer.com/Br0x/LBCYouTubeListenLive
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0:00
The shackles are off, the straitjacket has been removed
0:03
and we are allowed to wade enthusiastically into post-match ysis or electoral coverage
0:11
You are prevented, we are prevented, if you're wondering what on earth I'm gibbering on about, by broadcasting regulations from talking about it while the election is actually underway
0:23
And, I mean, goodnight for reform, which raises all sorts of questions
0:29
Not least, actually, how on earth does Farage manage to continue to successfully disassociate himself from all the things that he's personally responsible for
0:38
Good night for Team Putin, I suppose you could say. But the man who put Boris Johnson in Downing Street, effectively, who brought you Brexit and who described Liz Truss's budget as the finest thing since sliced bread continues to just sort of, it all washes off him, doesn't he
0:54
It's very, very strange. We may get on to that. but I think we begin with the governing party
1:00
we begin with Labour who have had a bit of a mayor and or not a mayor actually
1:05
in at least one of the places where they stood but they've hung on to all of their mayors
1:09
which I think may come as something of a surprise I'm surprised to hear people talking about Labour heartlands
1:17
I think post-2019 that became a rather hollow phrase the so-called red wall
1:24
that fell to Boris Johnson in 2019 because people still hadn't seen the Brexit rabbit in all its glory
1:33
It suggested to me that that sort of presumption, that lazy presumption that places like Doncaster would always be Labour
1:40
I thought that began to fall apart then. But here's the thing
1:45
and this is a conversation that I have a little bit cautiously. There's two things you need to remember
1:50
This is a vote by a quarter of the population of England, give or take
1:56
So nothing in Scotland, nothing, I don't think anything in Wales was there
2:00
That's on the horizon. Or Northern Ireland. And only a quarter of voters in England
2:04
So on the one hand, I don't want anybody to feel alienated by a conversation about something that didn't involve them
2:12
But I didn't have a vote and I'm fascinated by what's happened. So I think we can talk about it
2:16
I think we should talk about it. and we're also still four years maximum out from a general election so as as with opinion polls in
2:26
fact one of kistama's first act as labor leader was to lose an unlosable by-election wasn't it
2:32
and everybody started making noises about his um leadership possibly coming to a premature end
2:38
which makes me a little bit wary of doing the same thing now but i i can't help noting the
2:45
regularity and frequency with which people tell me Keir Starmer is the problem
2:53
I can't help noting it. And do you know what really brought it home this morning
2:58
Was a lot of people were talking earlier in the week, including this sort of bloke I've never
3:04
heard of before. I think his name is Glassman, who has been saying very negative things about the Labour Party and used to have a job in it or something So of course right media treat him like the Second Coming
3:18
such as the desperation to find Labour people to slag off Labour
3:23
But I just thought to myself, when everybody was talking earlier in the week
3:28
about the fact that Starmer hadn't visited Runcorn and that this proved that they thought they'd already lost
3:35
I, and you know, sometimes my thoughts go off in the opposite direction to everybody else
3:39
and I'm wrong. But I did find myself thinking really the opposite of what everybody else was thinking
3:46
And I found myself wondering whether they thought that Starmer turning up in Runcorn
3:51
might actually lose them votes. This is one bloke on the radio thinking out loud
3:56
All right. I don't have relationships or contacts with people in Downing Street
4:01
whoever's in Downing Street, whether it's a Labour government or a Conservative government, I don't do that kind of journalism. If I was ever going to, it's probably too late. I'm not saying
4:10
it's bad or worse than what I do, but I don't like to socialise, I don't like to network, I don't
4:16
like to do anything with politics. It's bad enough interviewing them on full disclosure because I end
4:20
up liking them. And if you like them, it's quite hard to give them a kicking when they deserve a
4:25
kicking a few months or years down the line. And that's kind of the territory that we are edging
4:30
towards today because I cannot ignore the people who insist that Starmer is the problem and I cannot
4:40
shake the thought that the decision not to go to Runcorn and everyone's talking this morning about
4:48
how they only lost by six votes and maybe if the prime minister had turned up they'd have they'd
4:53
have got the votes that they needed to get over the line nobody as far as I'm aware has suggested
4:58
that if he had turned up, they'd have lost by more than six votes
5:02
I don't know. We will never know. It's a counterfactual, but it's an interesting one, isn't it
5:06
So I have had people from the left, obviously, and Continuity Corbyn
5:14
I think we need to separate those two categories. Plenty of people who are more left-wing than me
5:20
who understand the necessity of getting into power before you can do anything with it
5:24
And then continuity Corbyn, who revel in being perpetually aggrieved losers. They're two separate constituencies
5:33
But they've had a problem with Starmer for quite a long time. The first category, policy-based rather than sort of cultish revulsion, policy-based
5:45
And the word coming from Runcorn was that the winter fuel allowance and the – what's the other one
5:53
What's the other big one? The winter fuel allowance and was it the disability payments? The two big things that kept coming up on the doorstep were the idea of people being personally affronted by the perceived assaults on some of the more vulnerable members of our society
6:15
And that has Keir Starmer fingerprints all over it So possibly we regret this in six months time and possibly will feel a little bit silly for kicking this off off the back of one round of or one by and one round of council votes
6:32
But is Keir Starmer becoming the problem? And you need to give me something sensible
6:40
if you're going to answer yes to that question. Is the association that pops up in your head
6:51
the image that the words Keir Starmer brings up in your head becoming a problem
6:56
It may be that whoever was leading the Labour Party at the moment would have suffered a similar result
7:00
but I can no longer ignore the idea or the number, the clamour, the volume
7:10
of people identifying him personally as the problem. So policy or personal
7:20
Or a little bit of both. 03456060973. Because, listen, you can talk until you're blue in the face
7:27
about bad communication or Morgan McSweeney being the problem. He's the fellow in Downing Street who apparently pulls all of the strings
7:34
an awful lot of people of my political outlook think that this
7:40
chasing of the right wing vote is pretty ugly whether or not it's
7:44
pragmatic time will tell you know some of these arguments have been lost even
7:48
though the people have won the arguments are wrong it's like the legacy of Brexit people think that persecuting
7:54
immigrants will make their life better it won't of course but so many people think
7:59
it that the Labour Party sometimes seem to think that there's no point having the argument
8:02
anymore there's no point standing up for what is right and decent. And that is pragmatism. That is the absence of ideology that can be either a
8:10
strength or a weakness. But I think if you are prime minister, or if you are a party leader
8:17
then there is a question, ultimately or eventually, about whether you are doing
8:24
good or harm in the role. I mean, you could ask the same question about Farage
8:28
that the number of people that are violently opposed to him is one of the highest in political
8:34
history. I think it's about half of the population who are repulsed by him. Whether or not that keeps
8:39
a lid on their electoral ambitions, only time will tell. But I think we'll start today with
8:43
the Prime Minister. And I'm going to invoke St. Carol of Vorderman at this point, if I may
8:50
And I'm going to tell you something I haven't told you before, which is when I interviewed
8:56
Carol for Full Disclosure on stage in Leicester Square back in, I think, January. And Carol
9:02
if you don't know, is an incredible evangelist when it comes to tactical voting. She has
9:09
worked very hard to give people the information that they need to vote in pursuit of a result
9:16
rather than wasting a vote on a candidate or a party that you like, but has no chance of winning
9:21
in the election you're voting in. Carol is very passionate about tactical voting
9:26
and she said something to me on stage that I and this does not happen to me very often I was so surprised by it that I didn go there I was so unprepared for what she said to me
9:40
that I didn't follow up the line of questioning. It was really near the end of the interview, if memory serves
9:45
You can have a listen. Get it down from Global Player and double-check for me. But I think it was pretty near the end of the interview
9:51
Or I had a couple of other things that I needed to get to before curtains
9:57
But I didn't really explore it. she said something to me that took me so by surprise
10:02
that I didn't really drill down into what she was saying and why she was saying it
10:08
And what she said to me was, and if this does turn out to be a case of premature speculation
10:15
then I'll blame it all on Carol Vorderman. But what she said to me was
10:18
that she didn't think Keir Starmer would lead Labour into the next election
10:22
And she said it in January. And at the time, I'm sure she won't mind me telling you
10:28
I thought that was a little bit bonkers. And I may think it's bonkers again six months from now
10:34
And I remind you that one of Keir Starmer's first tests as the leader of the opposition
10:38
was to lose a by-election that should not have been losable. And speculation began then about his leadership
10:46
He went on to secure one of the most epochal Labour victories in the history of general elections
10:52
So we may end up looking stupid, in which case I shall blame it all on Carol Valderman. but I don't think it's a stupid question today
10:58
and the inbox the number of people that are leaning in to this idea
11:06
not just continuity Corbyn or the I don't even like the phrase hard left
11:11
but the people who really expected this government to do a little bit more
11:16
for people perceived as needing help, there's been a very conscious decision
11:20
hasn't there, to disassociate or to try to get away from the idea
11:24
of being the party for the unemployed or being the party for the poorly
11:28
or being the party for the recently arrived. They're very keen to shake off that mantle
11:35
and for many people, they've tried too hard to shake it off
11:39
They've thrown out various babies with this particular bathwater. But the question remains
11:46
The figurehead. The question of the figurehead. So, I don't want to conclude already
11:55
because I like the man I like what I know of him
12:00
I don't like everything he's done, far from it but he is very different
12:04
again, he's been on stage in Leicester Square for a full disclosure
12:08
recording before he became Prime Minister and there were sides to him there that I've never ever
12:14
seen, either in other interviews or in PMQs or in his political performances
12:20
this is not an attack, this is a question. Is it possible this early in the premiership that Keir Starmer's brand is fatally
12:33
damaged? And if you think that this is complete nonsense, then ring me and tell me why. It's a
12:38
perfectly reasonable question to ask after losing a by-election in what was previously one of the
12:44
safest Labour seats in the land
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