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Donald Trump has said his Board of Peace has reached an agreement for the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza.
0:00 | David Patrikarakos reacts to the agreement
5:42 | NATO security expert analyses the result
Writing on Truth Social, the US President said that the "agreement will be carried out in carefully structured phases".
It will reportedly include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
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0:00
Now then, there's been a lot of talk, certainly from Donald Trump these past few days
0:04
that we may see some kind of peace in Palestine. Donald Trump says he's made a great breakthrough
0:15
and says that a major milestone has been landed towards ending the war in Gaza
0:21
with talk about Hamas laying down weapons and Israel withdrawing. However, Hamas says it's not going to give up any of its weapons
0:32
until Israelis seem to start to withdraw. So is this peace deal going to come off or not
0:37
I'm joined by David Patri-Karakos, a special correspondent at the Daily Mail
0:41
an author of War in 140 Characters. Nice to see you this morning, David
0:46
Morning, Matthew. So is this the one? Is this the deal? Well, look, I mean, what's happened so far
0:55
is that Donald Trump has said that his Board of Peace has reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza
1:05
So, you know, we're talking about two sides here, Hamas and other armed groups in Israel
1:09
that have zero trust in one another. So what is happening now is Hamas says it's not going to disarm until Israel withdraws to the yellow line in Gaza
1:17
and Israel says it's not going to withdraw to the yellow line in Gaza until Hamas disarms
1:22
So, you know, I think it's more of the same, really. If we're looking at something positive, you know, these things tend to start like this
1:32
At least it's sort of entered the conversation and perhaps we might start to move towards it
1:36
But right now, I can't honestly say that this is very much more than rhetoric from Donald Trump
1:42
Is the Board of Peace, I mean, is it a functioning organisation
1:49
Does it have real power? Or, I mean, Trump obviously entertained Netanyahu a few days back
1:55
What is the Board of Peace in your opinion? What's it doing out there
2:00
Well, is it a functioning organisation? To the best of my understanding, not really
2:05
Does it have power? I guess if Donald Trump is backing it, then to a degree that it does
2:10
I mean, it seems to be just a collection of Donald Trump friends and business partners and Tony Blair of course which I sure which I know was delightfully received in the Middle East So let see I also can help but think that
2:25
Donald Trump, honestly, call me cynical, is trying to distract a bit from Iran, because
2:29
the Iran war is not going well. I just, as I said, I can't see, if I'm looking at the
2:35
situation on the ground in Gaza, nothing seems to have discernibly changed. Donald Trump has
2:40
said something and both sides have said, well, we're not going to do it until the other person
2:44
does X and Y. And look, Hamas is just not going to give up all of its arms. Forget its war against
2:49
Israel. It also wants to control Gaza, OK? It also wants to have the monopoly of violence in Gaza
2:55
So I can't see that because it would almost essentially commit suicide. It would erase
3:00
itself. Israel, for the moment, is not going to get out of Gaza, especially with a lot, you know
3:06
election coming up. Nanyahu's got to look to the internal politics. Internal politics on both sides will drive this
3:13
I just, unfortunately, because we all want to see an end to this awful and immiserating and tragic situation on all sides
3:21
but I just, I can't view this with anything more than scepticism
3:25
unfortunately. Nothing seems to have changed discernibly on the ground. May I ask whether the UN is..
3:35
Because all I hear now is Board of Peace. So is there a United Nations plan
3:39
Because I haven't heard anything about the United Nations plan for Gaza for months and months
3:47
Yeah, I mean, that's a good point. When Trump talked about the Board of Peace, I mean, I guess in a sense he de facto sidelined the UN
3:54
Obviously, the UN plays a role in getting aid into Gaza, which is obviously controversial with UNRWA
4:01
But no, the UN seems to be fairly silent. and I think that Trump is trying to take a hold of this himself
4:06
Maybe it's to get the win, maybe it's because of the real estate. We don't know, but you're right. OK, and finally, and sort of tangentially
4:13
but I'm sure you'll have some answers, Saudi Arabia being brought in by the US
4:20
You've had the talk of the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia now working alongside the US, as I understand it
4:29
with review to Iran. Does that change the balance of in any way in the Middle East with with Saudi joining the US in this campaign That a very very good point I mean what really interesting is that I sure you know
4:43
Saudi Arabia directly with the US struck Iranian Shia militias in Iraq the other day
4:49
That is significant okay. Saudi has generally tried to play things down. Now obviously Saudi
4:56
is the traditional great Sunni power of the Middle East. It was of course the custodian of the two
5:00
holy places mecca and medina iran is the great shia power of the middle east they have always
5:04
been all certainly since 1979 in huge competition but the saudis always trying to dampen everything
5:09
down the strike against iranian forces directly is a message and it seems that in one sense iran
5:14
striking its its arab gulf neighbors directly is sort of bringing them into the war and has
5:20
actually forced the saudis to make a choice so and they're doing it obviously militarily in iraq
5:25
and perhaps politically now, more so with Trump in other areas. And what we see, unfortunately, is an expansion of the physical and political battlefields here
5:33
With every expansion, there's a possibility of escalation, miscalculation and greater, greater war
5:38
So sorry to be really depressing first thing in the morning to you and your listeners, but there we are
5:42
The headline that's been bandied around that Hamas agrees to disarm, it does overstate what's actually been settled
5:49
So it's more about decommissioning without an immediate surrender. The parties appear to have accepted a framework under which Hamas and other factions would gradually cease their activities, place weapons and military infrastructure under Palestinian control, and then eventually surrender governance and security functions to a technocratic authority
6:09
In return, Israel is then meant to end military operations and then increase and allow aid to flow into Gaza over stages
6:18
But they still disagree over who moves first, what constitutes complete disarmament
6:23
and whether weapons are stored inside Gaza or removed altogether. So as you mentioned about caveats, there are a lot of them still unresolved
6:31
But also, we've got an Israeli election coming up on the 27th of October
6:35
we know that the far right parties that are holding the government in power at the moment
6:41
and holding it hostage, so to speak, have already said they don't like this plan at all
6:47
So it all gets mixed up in a rather messy way with Israeli domestic politics doesn it That a really important aspect because Israeli domestic politics could become the decisive obstacle Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a challenging election in October of this year
7:05
and he remains very much dependent on political forces that are even more hawkish than he has
7:11
And many of them are portraying that any withdrawal would leave Hamas, its personnel
7:16
its weapons inside Gaza with the ability to potentially launch future attacks
7:22
So Netanyahu will probably be under considerable pressure to not be seen to conceding anything for domestic compulsions
7:29
And of course, we've got a move already, you know, from the far right in Israel
7:34
to re-establish settlements inside the Gaza Strip, something that ended in 2006 when the Israeli army and the settlers left the Gaza Strip
7:45
So that could make a comeback. just as there is creeping but daily annexation of the West Bank taking place
7:52
And this is potentially where there could be another clash between Netanyahu and Donald Trump
7:59
because the President of the United States is trying to impose a simultaneous movement
8:03
where both sides ultimately comply. Hamas will say that Israel must stop attacks first, return to the agreed withdrawal line, increase aid
8:14
Israel is saying that it won't withdraw beyond the current line until Hamas has genuinely disarmed
8:19
So that kind of chicken and egg scenario is actually the remaining problem that has existed since this conflict actually began
8:26
And we will see that far-right coalition partners will continue to oppose any withdrawal before total demilitarization
8:34
Just briefly, I mean, can you imagine, especially in the middle of an election campaign
8:39
Trump calling up Netanyahu and saying, stop this, you know, don't play around
8:43
you know respect my wishes here what does netanyahu say does he say yes sir or does he say no
8:48
well i don't think the israeli prime minister has ever been able to be convinced by any u.s
8:55
president whether it was barack obama biden or both times uh with trump they have their
9:01
disagreements it seems but then they come together when it comes to operations against iran i think
9:06
on the palestinian issue uh netanyahu if he has to be seen to compromise that could be the end of
9:11
his political career
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