Up next in 10
Aasmah Mir is joined by Dr Christopher Featherstone and Ahmed Najar to discuss Donald Trump's claim that his Board of Peace has reached an agreement for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas in Gaza.
Writing on Truth Social, the US President said that the "agreement will be carried out in carefully structured phases".
It will reportedly include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory.
Dr Christopher Featherstone tells Aasmah that there are 'still a few stumbling blocks' as the deal relies on trust and communication between Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump... a relationship that has had its ups and downs.
Ahmed Najar undermines the deal completely, saying he's 'not hopeful' it will actually succeed.
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0:00
Donald Trump says that his Board of Peace has reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas in Gaza
0:08
This has never happened before. Will it actually happen? We know that there are different stages and phases of this peace deal
0:17
The deal is apparently going to include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the territory
0:23
There's going to be the establishment of a new Palestinian government. A senior Hamas official, we've heard from them
0:29
they've spoken to other media organisations confirming that a statement from Hamas will come soon
0:35
We haven't heard anything from the Israeli government yet. This framework is also going to allow for the reconstruction of Gaza
0:43
There are all sorts of questions here about will there be a complete disarmament
0:48
Where will the weapons go? Will Israel fully withdraw? and what does it mean for the reconstruction of Gaza
0:58
In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump said this is a major milestone in the implementation of the Trump 20-point plan
1:05
The agreement will be carried out in carefully structured phases. As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw
1:13
and the International Stabilisation Force will work with a new Palestinian police force
1:19
to take responsibility for Gaza being safe for its residents and its neighbours
1:25
So early days, but this is hopeful, isn't it? If you're interested in long-term peace coming to Gaza
1:35
either as someone who has relatives there or as someone who has relatives in Israel
1:44
presumably you want peace to come to Gaza, don't you? So how hopeful are you that long term peace is finally coming to Gaza
1:53
0345 6060 973. Let's talk first of all to Dr. Christopher Featherston, lecturer at the University of York
2:01
who specialises in foreign policy ysis and US presidential foreign policy decision making
2:07
So the perfect person, really. Good afternoon to you. Afternoon. From what, you know, from the kind of bare details that we have right now, this is clearly unprecedented. Hamas have never completely disarmed and they haven't done that yet. But if they've agreed to, then that is unprecedented. What do you read into all of this
2:30
well I completely agree the unprecedented nature of this really shouldn't be overlooked in the
2:37
slightest right this is in a massive massive move and the fact that Hamas has publicly agreed to this
2:43
or said that they would agree to this is an enormous move um I think for me this is one of
2:50
those things that is going to involve quite a few moving parts right Donald Trump has made an
2:56
impressive movement here in achieving this kind of commitment from Hamas. It is phased, it has
3:02
multiple phases where we can see progress can be achieved and then we reach the next part of the
3:08
plan. But at the same time, it is very, very dependent on commitments from Israel. Now
3:15
this is very much dependent on Donald Trump's ability to bring Netanyahu to the table and
3:21
essentially persuade Netanyahu to agree with his approach He is relatively close to the Israeli administration but at the same time in the past I say six months there has been quite a lot of tempestuous
3:36
public spat between the two men. So it's one of these areas where we can see potential for hope
3:43
but also there are some enormous stumbling blocks that are still there for Donald Trump
3:49
And I'd also say it's a massive change in how we see this go, right
3:54
The Board of Peace. Many of us who study these kind of international relations, international law things
4:00
thought of the Board of Peace as this flash in the pan that we'd all forget about
4:03
So the fact that it's still relevant, I will admit I am slightly shocked
4:08
Right. We'll talk about Israeli withdrawal in a second. Let's talk about disarmament
4:15
I'm looking at some of the details here. There's going to be an international stabilisation force
4:20
and there's going to be a newly formed Palestinian National Committee for the administration of Gaza that's going to manage the whole process
4:28
The disarmament will be gradual and sequential. It will occur based on a schedule which will be prepared within two weeks
4:35
Disarmament will be linked to a phased Israeli withdrawal with a verification committee ensuring each phase is completed
4:43
And the agreement also states that no weapons will be handed to Israel or any non-Palestinian entity
4:50
And after that process is done, according to the roadmap, the new Palestinian Authority alone shall retain, store
4:57
or exercise control over weapons in Gaza. Now, I can understand, again, you know, it depends where your interests lie
5:06
but there will be some people in Israel who say, hang on a second
5:11
so the weapons are going to stay within a new Palestinian authority, isn't that a danger
5:24
Yes, I think you're right. It's absolutely true that this is one of the biggest stumbling blocks
5:30
I think there's two aspects to this. Both sides necessarily and entirely understandably have an enormous level of distrust and mistrust of each other
5:39
And so you can understand that Israel will naturally be looking at this and thinking, well, the weapons might be technically outside of Hamas's control, but they will still be presumably relatively accessible to Hamas
5:53
And it's entirely dependent on this new authority having an ability to prevent Hamas personnel, fighters and the other smaller armed groups in Gaza being able to access those weapons
6:07
the new Palestinian authority will need to be able to have the ability to prevent the weapons going back into Hamas's hands
6:17
And I think Israel will struggle to trust this. But at the same time, I can also understand that Hamas would be very much against handing their weapons directly to the Israeli steaks
6:26
Yeah. On the subject then of Israeli withdrawal, how do you expect that to go
6:34
So, a couple of factors here. I mean, we know that there are some very hardline politicians in Israel who say that the only
6:41
way that you negotiate with Hamas is through the crosshairs of a gun
6:46
That was Itamar Ben who said that Also we have elections do we not in Israel that are coming up in a couple of months So how does that sit with the image the spectre for some people of Israel withdrawing
7:06
I mean, can those two happen at the same time? Well, I think this is entirely unprecedented
7:13
So the idea that we would be able to presume from history for this is incredibly complex, right
7:20
That we don't have a track record to build upon because this hasn't happened before
7:24
So it's a very difficult picture. I would say the idea that we could do this at the same time as elections, it seems unlikely and seems incredibly difficult
7:34
But at the same time, when else are you going to achieve this
7:38
With a new government coming into power in Israel, would it be possible for a new government to make commitments
7:44
That seems very difficult, but it also requires us to delay peace, which, as you said, we should all be moving towards peace
7:52
That's something we're wanting to see there. I also think one of the complications here is what kind of coalition could come in after these elections
8:01
As we've seen, there is the extreme far right. Ben Gavir was prosecuted and served time as a convicted terrorist
8:09
So the idea that we can see more extreme voices coming into that coalition
8:15
or potentially fewer extreme voices, really muddies the water and complicates those factors
8:20
So I think it's incredibly difficult to achieve. And I think this is probably going to be one of the big stumbling blocks for Donald Trump
8:27
that he is trying to show his commitment, show his ability to influence the world stage
8:33
every few weeks he makes a proclamation on the Iran conflicts and we turn around and say, well, that's clearly not true
8:42
He's going to want to be able to show he can actually deliver what he's saying he's delivering
8:46
And this is a huge, huge attempt at doing so. Are you feeling hopeful today
8:53
No, I'm not. And the reason is that actually Israel has a long record
9:03
of never delivering on the end of the agreement they have done with Palestinians
9:07
If we take a look at Oslo and many other agreements afterwards
9:12
that they've never delivered really, especially after Oslo, which was signed in 1994
9:20
and it promised the Palestinians to have a state within five years after that
9:25
But the settlements in the West Bank has expanded more than ever at that time
9:30
And that showed the Israeli intention from back then that they never really had the intention of giving the Palestinians a state or equal rights
9:40
So that really doesn't, the fact that Hamas has announced that it will disarm doesn't really change anything in the Israeli policy towards the Palestinians
9:55
Okay, what about the difference here, though, could be Donald Trump, whether you like him or don't like him. He very much wants to achieve things. He wants to tick things off a list. He has an interesting relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, I think
10:11
I think there some reporting saying that Donald Trump would be very disappointed if Israel do not sign up to this and do not deliver their part of this Do you think that makes a difference this time No because we seen this at the ceasefire You know
10:30
Trump has bragged about the fact that he reached a ceasefire in Gaza, but there was never a ceasefire
10:36
The genocide has carried on. Yesterday, only six people were killed in Gaza. Since the ceasefire
10:42
was signed of more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed. So the number is roughly 1,400 people have been killed
10:52
since the ceasefire has been signed, which is more than the people were killed on 7th of October
10:57
So it really is, we'll try to kind of give that feeling
11:03
that there is something going on internationally, but on the ground, things will still be the same
11:11
I have a feeling that Israel might be pulling out from one part and then progressing on another part, proceeding into the expanding, expanding into another part to show that they are actually doing what Trump has said
11:24
And Trump will come out and say, you know, I've done this, I've done that. But the reality on the ground will still be the same as it is
11:32
It has been for the last three years. The genocide is still going
11:35
Food is not going in as it should be. construction materials are not there
11:41
People are being squeezed further and further within a smaller area of Gaza
11:46
Now Israel has taken more than 70% of Gaza. And up until yesterday, they actually have expanded what is so-called the yellow line
11:55
which is like kind of a de facto border that Israel has created, which has swallowed more than 70% of Gaza
12:02
So Israel hasn't really showed any good intention that they will deliver their end of agreement
12:07
if Hamas has delivered, because they don't care about this particular fact
12:13
that whether Hamas delivers or not. Also, we see what's going on in the West Bank
12:18
There's no Hamas, but Israel is still supporting the Jewish settlers' expansions
12:25
and violence and even burning Palestinians alive. So one last point, which is what do you expect from a government
12:33
that has been allowed to get away with a genocide? do you think they're actually going to fulfill their end of agreement
12:42
I don't think so. I mean, we're seeing this Israeli government doing whatever they like
12:47
acting with impunity. Just one has to ask this question. Why should they commit if they have no pressure
12:54
and if they know they can get away with the crime of crimes? Well, I think the pressure is coming from Donald Trump
13:01
Well, that's precisely the point that we may think there's a pressure coming from Donald
13:05
But is it really a pressure from Donald Trump? Look at, for example, the UK government still trading, still selling arms to Israel, even in spite of hundreds of reports that accusing Israel of genocide, ethnic cleansing and all kind of crimes
13:20
Look at the US, look at the EU still trading with Israel, which is the biggest trade partner for Israel
13:26
So it's like Israel is doing it and getting away with it. Frankly speaking, why should they
13:32
just give me a reason why should they fill up to their agreement
13:38
Well, yeah, the only reason I could offer, Ahmed, was because of the Donald Trump factor
13:44
But, you know, I don't have any inside knowledge. I don't know. All I have is hope, really
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