Up next in 10
Israel and Lebanon have entered into a tentative ceasefire, as Donald Trump tells armed Lebanese group Hezbollah to "act nicely". After announcing the pause in hostilities earlier in the day, the ceasefire came into effect at 5pm BST. It will run for 10 days, with groundbreaking talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments taking place for the first time in decades on Tuesday. President Trump says he hopes "Hezbollah acts nicely" during the agreed ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel in a Truth Social post a couple of hours after the pause to hostilities came into effect. Trump also called for "no more killing", insisting Lebanon and Israel "must finally have PEACE". Ali Miraj considers what a truce between Iran and America would be for Israel and is joined by reporter Lou Browne to discuss the blockade in the Strait. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #alimiraj #israel #netanyahu #donaldtrump #trump #usa #iran #middleeast #politics #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
Show More Show Less View Video Transcript
0:00
Does anybody know if the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed
0:04
Because the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning to resemble the hokey-cokey
0:11
In, out, in, out, shake it all about. I mean, this morning it was all being lauded that there was going to be an opening of the Strait
0:18
and indeed the Strait had been opened, that we might be on for further talk between Iran and the US this weekend
0:26
And then Iran closes the Strait again. Apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is closed after briefly reopening
0:34
Iran reversed the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A military spokesperson accused the US of not meeting its obligations
0:41
after Donald Trump refused to lift America's own blockade of Iranian ports
0:50
The key shipping lane had seen its first, had seen rather, its first major movement of ships since the start of the war this morning
0:58
It came after Iran's foreign minister had said that the strait is open to commercial traffic again to coincide with a ceasefire in Lebanon
1:07
We know that the Iranians wanted to link the ceasefire in Lebanon against their proxies Hezbollah as part of this
1:14
They see it as one of the same thing. Now, the price of oil had also dropped and that the announcement earlier had led to a sharp fall in both the price of oil and gas, with a unit of wholesale gas in the UK now below 100 pence for the first time in six weeks
1:30
also it came on the back of this 10-day truce between Lebanon and Israel
1:39
The Lebanese army accused Israel of ceasefire violations just hours after it came into effect
1:45
But thousands of people in Lebanon have headed south to their homes
1:51
despite warnings from Israel not to. And Trump said overnight the negotiations with Iran
1:57
over a lasting ceasefire would continue over the weekend, but warned there would be no extension if no deal is reached by Wednesday
2:07
He also claimed that there had been some pretty good news regarding Iran without elaborating
2:14
Two major sticking points remain. As Iran has contradicted Trump's claim that Tehran will hand over its enriched uranium
2:22
the Iranians are saying that that is not going to happen. Nothing of the sort has been agreed, but that is what Donald Trump tells us
2:30
Officials in Iran have also said the ongoing US blockade in the strait violates the ceasefire agreement
2:39
This tug of war over Iran's de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its next phase now after Iran said it had reversed the brief reopening of the shipping lane
2:50
I mean, this is really bad news. All this uncertainty all the time, right
2:55
Now, people are now worrying about food prices, not just oil and gas prices, but also food prices, also inflation
3:04
On the back of that what that means for interest rates whether we might be heading towards a global recession which some of us thought would be avoided now because things were looking a bit better But who knows I mean as I say it very difficult to
3:18
tell from not one day to the next, but from one hour to the next what's going on now
3:24
Despite all of this, and as part of all of this, you could say
3:29
these conversations have been going on between the US and Iran. They might reopen again at some
3:36
point soon. Pakistan has been in Iran. Assem Muneer, the general of Pakistan, has been in
3:41
Iran for the last few days trying to broker movements and their negotiations there. But
3:47
no one's really talking about Israel in any of this, other than seeking to engineer a
3:53
ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, which has lasted 10 days, right, which is why we've
3:57
now got the latest opening of this Strait of Hormuz, which has now been closed. No one's
4:02
really talking about Israel here. And I want to focus on that a little bit, because I want to ask you this question
4:07
do you think a truce is still possible because I mean it's in out in out shake it all about
4:12
I have no idea maybe you do I don't and if it were if it were possible
4:17
that there could be a truce between the US and Iran because those are the two who are talking
4:23
ostensibly talking where would that leave Israel where would a truce between the US and Iran leave Israel 0-3-4-5-6-0-6-0-9-7-3
4:36
text 8-4-8-5-0 I want to hear from you as to where you think
4:42
this leaves Israel if there is indeed a truce because Israel's not part
4:46
of these conversations Israel had its own ambitions in the war it had its own metrics for success
4:54
which I'll come to in a few moments where does it leave it? I mean at the moment
4:58
it's not part of the negotiations at all I don't know do let me know your thoughts
5:03
on all of it. 0345 6060 973. Now joining me is Lou Brown
5:07
journalist for Al Jazeera, joining us from Qatar to give an update on the Strait of Hormuz
5:12
Lou, it's the hokey-cokey, isn't it, when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz
5:16
Is it open at the moment? Is it closed? What's happening? It's like a valve
5:21
No one really knows how to turn on and turn off. You're absolutely right. Well, currently
5:27
at this moment in time, it is closed. Now, Iran has reversed course
5:32
quite quickly. The Iranian military, the IRGC statements say the strait is closed again or under
5:39
tight control in response to the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Now the reports emerged
5:46
of the IRGC gunboats firing on at least one tanker, possibly Indian-linked, attempting passage
5:54
Several vessels turned back after trying to transit the strait. Then we know shipping data
6:00
if you're as boring as I am and you love looking at marine traffic, around 15 to 20% of normal daily averages
6:07
with only a handful of ships moving in the last 24 hours
6:10
And I think it's important to note that when we talk about this naval blockade
6:14
not a lot of people know where it is. So the Strait of Hormuz, you know, that's that kind of meandering arc
6:20
And the US naval blockade is on the southern part of that So a lot of these ships can get past that Iranian choke point and then they get to this US naval blockade and they think hold on a moment where are we going What are we going to do And then the US presence comes and then they turn back
6:36
So where does this leave the situation now in terms of the negotiations? Because
6:41
what is the rationale that the Iranians have given for closing the strait again? Is it because
6:47
they argue that one of the reasons or one of the rationales for doing it
6:53
is because the US was meant to remove its blockade. It's really tough to know what..
7:00
I think both sides wanted an off-ramp from the conflict and what that looked like, they both weren't certain
7:08
And the concessions being made, Donald Trump coming out saying it was a successful end to the conflict
7:13
and they both want to claim victory, right? That's nothing new here. And Donald Trump almost put the una reverse on Iran with this naval blockade
7:23
And a lot of ysts were saying, why didn't he do this sooner and save all the conflict, all the deaths
7:27
But going back to the Pakistan talks, the first round, whether you're sending J.D. Vance or Marco Rubio
7:34
a lot of people are saying that's cannon fodder. Donald Trump would only put himself front and center for something that might be seen as successful
7:42
and wouldn't necessarily position Marco Rubio or J.D. Vance because that's not in his interest
7:50
They can't take the credit for something as brilliant as brokering peace
7:54
So he'll only emerge when that happens. So the first round of talks, largely seen as unsuccessful
8:00
and they left within a day. It very much seemed like a quick dash and go
8:04
And I don't think many people were anticipating great success or a really comprehensive deal
8:09
I mean, we've seen how long it can take between Israel and Lebanon. They've not sat together since the 1980s
8:16
and I don't think this is going to be any different. Where does it leave Israel in all of this, Luke
8:21
Because I haven't heard from Israel at all in any of this, apart from the ceasefire with respect to Lebanon
8:26
which is going to last 10 days, which is very welcome, particularly to the Lebanese
8:31
Where are the Israelis in this? Well, you're right to point out Lebanon
8:36
I mean, that's a humanitarian catastrophe. A lot of southern Lebanon has been absolutely decimated
8:41
Millions displaced, thousands killed. We saw a huge airstrike that killed almost in the hundreds on Wednesday last week
8:51
Very devastating. But where Israel stands, I think, well, we've had this ambassadorial meeting
8:58
Again, low-level officials in relative terms. You're not going to have a material ceasefire
9:05
Because Hezbollah has also been cut out from this. So Israel and Lebanon have declared a ceasefire
9:10
That is, again, providing a lot of impetus for Israel to, broadly speaking, create the atmosphere that they could act on a case of a violation
9:24
And they've explicitly said that if Hezbollah or if anything were to happen in southern Lebanon, then Israel reserves the right to act
9:31
Now, that gives it very broad definition to break this ceasefire. And I think a lot of early reports have emerged that this ceasefire has already been broken and many people are expecting it to keep being broken during this period Thank you very much indeed Lou That Lou Brown journalist for Al Jazeera joining us from Qatar
9:47
giving us the latest on the Shredder for Moos. Don't worry, it's only 1.13
9:53
In the next 45 minutes, it might be open again. Who knows? I have no idea. Interesting, though, that when it was open earlier today
10:01
it came on the back of President Trump writing on True Social
10:05
that Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are prohibited, capital P-R-O-H-I-B-I-T-E-D
10:15
from doing so by the USA. Enough is enough. Is he starting to slap around Bibi
10:25
Belatedly. This is all very interesting, isn't it? So, look, I don't really know where Israel fits into all of this
10:33
But I think it's quite important because Israel's a major party to the conflict
10:38
because they teamed up with the US to do it. They have a stake in what goes on in the region
10:46
and they had certain war aims, as I understand it. And if you're Israeli, you're living in Israel
10:51
or you follow these things closely, correct me if I'm wrong on any of these points
10:56
but as I understood it, there were a few things that Mr Netanyahu wanted to focus on
11:01
One, the perceived existential threat to Israel's survival, given the fact that the Iranians have consistently called for Israel's elimination
11:11
Number two, Iran's regional influence through its proxies. Israel argues that it's effectively in conflict with Iran indirectly on many, many areas, be it Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and all the rest of it
11:25
Number three, preventing nuclear breakout. So pre-empting, pre-empting and removing preemptively the chance of Iran having a nuclear weapon
11:38
Diplomacy has failed before, they would argue. They're not going to take the risk of Iran having a nuclear weapon
11:44
Number four, strategic timing and opportunity. Iran was on its knees. Inflation absolutely through the roof
11:51
The economy on its knees. Strike them when it hurts and when they're down
11:55
Perfectly understandable from an Israeli point of view. Number five, reshape Iran as, reshape Israel rather, as the main regional power
12:06
Weaking in Iran as a regional rival power helps Israel. Perfectly understandable from a realpolitik point of view
12:13
And number six, domestic political factors. There's an election coming up later this year
12:21
doesn't do Bibi any harm to be seen to be slapping around Iran
12:27
and achieving a great victory if you've got an election coming up
12:31
Just some thoughts, not exhaustive, not exclusive in any way, but just some thoughts to get the conversation going
12:37
But what now? Where would a truce between the US and Iran
12:42
and it looks like Donald Trump really wants one, I'm sure the Iranians do too
12:45
because their economy is completely in the gutter, and they want sanctions relief, both primary and secondary
12:53
where would it leave Israel
#news