Up next in 10
Matthew Wright speaks with international security expert Keir Giles about Trump's latest attempt at peace between Russia and Ukraine.
The US president sent peace envoy Jared Kushner to Moscow to discuss the 'next steps' for ending the war in Ukraine.
Giles also weighs in on the latest report from defence planners working with NATO, suggesting that if war broke out with Russia, Europe would not be able to sustain war due to a lack of war readiness.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
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0:00
Donald Trump now, really sounding to me at least, like he genuinely, genuinely has the bit between his teeth
0:08
So we have Jerry Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy, peace envoy, have had a three-hour meeting with Putin yesterday
0:17
more than three hours, I understand, in which Russians later said, described the talks as substantive, constructive and extremely frank, but no indication of any breakthrough
0:28
Witkow and Kushner are now en route to see Zelensky in Kiev today
0:34
And we have to wonder whether, I mean, that there is a brief ceasefire
0:41
a cessation of hostilities at the moment, both from Russia and from Ukraine
0:46
It's only for the next day or two. So is there hope in the air
0:51
I'm joined by Keir Giles, author of the book Who Will Defend Europe? And an Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme
0:57
Nice to see you, Keir. We've both been down this road so many times before
1:03
that I have to be... I'm going to go out on a limb here
1:08
and say that Trump just sounds like a different man with regards to Ukraine at the moment
1:12
It can't go on. An awareness of the bloodshed. Is he on the case now
1:23
Is this a real push for peace rather than whatever it was last time around
1:27
Well, that sounds a little optimistic. Yes, he's come back to this subject, and yes, he's saying
1:32
yes, this has to come to an end. But after all, he's said that before
1:36
But usually when we hear this from the current US administration, they say it has to come to an end, they mean Ukraine has to surrender
1:41
in order to stop the fighting rather than to bring it to anything that recognisable as a just peace which is far out of reach now or even something which preserves the interests of ukraine and of europe beyond it because at the moment there nothing to
1:55
distinguish this trip that whitkov and kushner are on from any of the previous efforts which
1:59
were basically just conveying russia's surrender terms to ukraine if there's something more
2:04
constructive going on it's not visible and you mentioned a cessation of hostilities it's not
2:09
exactly that. It's the two sides agreeing not to launch missiles and drones at each other's
2:15
airports for as long as these folks can get in and out. And that's previously something we saw
2:20
the United States asking Ukraine for and Ukraine agreeing, but sorry, excuse me, asking Russia for
2:26
and Russia agreeing because they had no faith in Russia's air defences while the CIA director was
2:31
visiting, but Russia wouldn't agree to it previously. So plainly, there's something in
2:35
this for Russia that they're willing to suspend their strikes on the Ukrainian capital for 72
2:40
hours to achieve. Do you get anything from Donald Trump's tone? Any sense of that he does have the
2:48
bit between his teeth this time? We get the sense that his attention has returned to this issue
2:53
after being off it for several months. What that actually means in real practical terms, of course
2:59
let's not confuse what Donald Trump says with what his administration actually does
3:02
Last time there were negotiations we often heard from the coalition of the willing, Britain, France, Germany. What influence might they have should anything come from these meetings
3:16
That's extremely hard to tell, even for people who've been taking a close interest, like me
3:21
in what the coalition of the willing is actually willing to do, and what it's prepared to step in and achieve in practical terms in securing Europe
3:30
It really hard to see what exactly the plan is there So whether there a role depends on whether there a plan and whether there a plan depends on whether these countries are being able to agree between themselves on actually inserting themselves into the conversation about their own national security and their own future
3:46
And that, for the time being, is very hard to discern from anything public that's come out of these discussions
3:50
I sort of foolishly thought that there may have been an opportunity for hope here
3:57
I mean reports of the meeting between Kushner, Wyckoff and Putin suggest that Putin is still insisting that he is in control in Ukraine
4:08
that he is winning to all intents and purposes and yet much of what I have seen through social media of burning oil refineries
4:16
huge cues for petrol in Russia would suggest the opposite, frankly. I mean, there is this other story to concern
4:26
that if war broke out with Russia, that Europe wouldn't be able to sustain a prolonged war
4:35
in part, or primarily, for what I understand, because the people wouldn't want it
4:40
Well, yes, it's not just that the people wouldn't want it, but the countries haven't prepared for it
4:44
This is a story that came out in The Guardian yesterday, their diplomatic correspondent, Patrick Wintour
4:49
talking about one single discussion at one single conference, which is an odd way to present it
4:54
because this is something that we've been talking about for years, in fact, decades. You and I have had this conversation before
4:59
about how Europe simply has not responded to Russia spending 20 years getting itself ready for war
5:06
And that, of course, leaves us in a very vulnerable position, not just in the UK, which is doggedly refusing
5:12
to increase its investment in defence, let alone the protection of its people at home
5:17
But even in the states right behind the front line, the ones that are going to be next in line
5:22
before Russia ambitions they been working in it in the best cases for months whereas Russia has been at it for decades Final question from me and it something that I been quite enthused by
5:36
which was this idea that the British public need to be informed about the situation
5:41
and that despite a call in the 2025 Strategic Defence Review to have that conversation
5:47
whether it be booklets through letterboxes or whatever, no such conversation, national conversation has taken place
5:54
And all your observations of lack of preparedness in Europe and this here in the UK is the sort of cherry on the top of that misery
6:04
Well, yes, I mean, there is a national conversation. You and I are having it now. Yes
6:08
People listening to it are engaged in that conversation. But the point is it's happening around and in spite of government
6:14
instead of being led by government. There's this big gaping hole where there was supposed to be
6:19
an initiative to actually try to explain to people what was coming down the track and what needed to
6:23
change in order to be ready for it. And we simply haven't seen that from the last couple of prime
6:30
ministers or their underlings. There have been various attempts by people when they're permitted
6:34
to admit what the threat is to try and raise awareness of what's going on. But it's down to
6:38
conversations like this, or in fact, what's coming up later in September, the Sky News
6:43
war game, the televised version of the podcast that they ran last year to try to show just how
6:50
the UK's options are limited if it does try to confront Russia, and just how bad things can get
6:54
because of this chronic underfunding of defence, and because of the lack of any civil defence to
6:59
protect people at home. That's the kind of initiative that you might have thought at one
7:04
point the government might be undertaking to try to get the issues across. But instead, it's left
7:09
down to journalists and to people who are hammering the same old drum like me saying
7:14
we have a problem and it's going to get worse
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