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Sir Bill Browder has spent his career pursuing sanctions against the Putin regime in Russia, and joins James O'Brien to discuss the lifting of sanctions by Sir Keir Starmer, as was announced this week. With the war in Ukraine still ongoing, the best way to halt Russia's seemingly unstoppable war machine is to reduce the amount of money their government is able to earn through oil, yet the UK has pledged three months of lifted sanctions, essentially guaranteeing Putin more money in that timeframe. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #putin #russia #ukraine #zelensky #zelenskyy #ukpolitics #uknews #uk #starmer #keirstarmer #labour #ukgovernment #war #warzone #oil #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
No civilian in this country or possibly the world has done more to pursue a program of sanctions against Vladimir Putin's regime
0:08
And his name is Bill Browder, the anti-corruption campaigner and head of the global Magnitsky justice campaign
0:14
And also, as you probably know, a good friend of mine. So we turn to him because he will be across this like few others
0:22
And we begin by asking what your immediate reaction to this news was, Bill
0:25
the same as kiev's reaction which is very negative i mean here you've got a situation which is how
0:33
does russia how does putin afford to continue to fight this war after four years and the answer is
0:40
because of oil and oil products and all the money that comes from that that's where he gets the
0:45
money and so the the logic has been since the very beginning how do we stop him from this invasion we
0:52
take away his money? How do we take away his money? By stopping his sale of oil. And so for the UK
0:58
who in theory is one of the biggest allies of Ukraine, to basically say to the Russians
1:05
oh, it's okay, you can sell your oil now, is the biggest stupidity. It's unimaginable how stupid
1:13
this is. We spent all this money helping Ukraine fight off the Russians, and now we're giving money
1:19
to Putin to continue to kill Ukrainians. It just makes no sense. And I have to wonder what is behind
1:26
this, who made this decision, where the pressure came from, because it just doesn't make sense on
1:31
the surface. Let me be the devil's advocate, if I may. My understanding is that the new legislation
1:38
which does affect a ramping up of broader sanctions, an expansion of the sanctions
1:44
program kicked in on tuesday but because of concerns caused by the closure of the strait
1:51
of hormuz and the ongoing war with in iran they've just put a three-month pause on the jet fuel
1:56
and refined diesel element of it as well as the as well as the lng so they've sort of said
2:01
turn the tap off slowly don't don't cut the pipe tonight well let's just look at this and so at the
2:09
moment Russia produces oil they produce jet fuel or they sell oil to people who make jet fuel And so then the question is what happens to that stuff And when it under sanctions it means that Russia just gets a lower price It not as
2:25
if they don't sell their stuff. So what happens when you lift sanctions, it's not as if the
2:29
supply all of a sudden comes about that you wouldn't have otherwise. It just means that
2:34
Russia gets more money and other people get less money. It's just a redistribution of the profit
2:39
in this chain of oil sales. And so the idea that somehow this is going to lead to getting rid of jet fuel shortages
2:49
is just nonsense. It just means that Russia gets more money. And I'll tell you something else which is interesting, which is that Vladimir Zelensky
2:57
is watching all this stuff. And he's getting pretty frustrated because we're all talking about sanctions and then
3:03
not really doing it or doing it halfway or lifting sanctions. And so you know what he's doing about this whole oil business
3:09
He's sending his drones into Russia and blowing up their oil refineries. And so he's imposing his own sanctions because, you know, we are so fickle and half-hearted about doing our sanctions
3:21
And that is having an effect. And Vladimir Putin is now hiding in his bunker and begging for the Ukrainians not to bomb his parades and so on and so forth
3:31
I mean, the licenses last for three months. We could be sitting here in three months' time feeling a little bit more sanguine and philosophical about things
3:39
Well, you know, the U.S. were the first people to do this whole sanctions removal
3:44
This is what happened at the beginning of the Iran war. Scott Besson, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, quote, temporarily lifted sanctions for one month
3:53
One month went by and then he temporarily lifted sanctions for a second month. That second month went by and he just lifted sanctions for a third month
4:00
And so when you open up this Pandora's box, this is what you end up
4:05
And I just have to have to think that this three month thing is going to turn into six months and every month Putin gets more money
4:12
Well, we will join you in keeping a very close eye on that particular issue
4:16
I wonder whether you've been on the phone at all in the last 24 hours. You're a knight of the realm now
4:21
So, Bill, you are a man of influence. Have you brought your expertise and unhappiness to bear upon the people making these decisions
4:29
Well I have but it makes more of a difference for me coming on your show to express my displeasure than it does with a private phone call Well to that point then for people listening I wouldn force them through the mangle of this particular question But if they were given a choice between buying refined jet
4:46
fuel from India that has been refined from oil that came out of Russia or cancelling their summer
4:50
holiday, some people may be a little bit torn on that. Is that an oversimplistic ysis
4:55
It wouldn't happen. It's not as if there's no jet fuel. It's just a question of who gets the
5:01
money for that jet fuel. It's not like all of a sudden by lifting the sanctions you can go on your
5:05
summer holiday. By lifting the sanctions just means that Russia can do more bombing and gets
5:10
more money from it. And in fact, if the Indians are the ones who are being penalized because the
5:15
Russian oil then comes in at a higher price, it's not as if there's no oil or jet fuel available for
5:22
summer holidays because of this move. So just to clarify finally then, I mean, you are obviously
5:26
for clear reasons in favor of an immediate cessation of this commerce, this business
5:34
But it's not, they're bringing in a ban. They're just pausing it for three months
5:39
It's not as if there was a ban in place previously that is now being lifted. It's an easing of sanctions that were incoming
5:45
not an easing of sanctions that were in place. However you want to describe it
5:50
however you want to describe it, we should be cutting off Russia's access to money in the world
5:56
because if we don't, then we end up in a situation where we're going to have to continue paying for Ukrainians
6:02
More people will die. And by the way, the Russians are not just going after Ukraine
6:06
They're busy buzzing. There was an incident yesterday where an RAF jet nearly crashed into a Russian military jet over the Black Sea
6:15
I mean, this is a day-by-day, what I would call almost open war with Russia
6:21
They are the enemy. They are the adversary. And to do anything that's not completely harsh to the Russians is basically leaving ourselves wide open to God knows what in the future
6:33
Indeed. And I think Lithuanian politicians were evacuated yesterday to an underground shelter after a drone violated their country's airspace
6:42
While I have you, Bill, what's the bigger picture sanctions-wise? Are we seeing meaningful intervention from Western countries I suppose the EU most obviously the United States unlikely to lead the way under the current regime Are sanctions having any effect at all on Vladimir Putin war machine
7:00
Well, I think the sanctions generally are having a big effect on his war machine. I mean, he's suffering, he's been suffering. But the one big place where he continues to get his money from
7:08
is oil. And I was working on a big project for about the last year, trying to get sanctions
7:16
imposed on the eight oil refineries, which buy 80% of Russia's oil, because if I had succeeded
7:22
in that, then we would have been in a situation where Russia would have effectively gotten about
7:27
75% less money than they would normally get, and then they would probably be out of business and
7:34
unable to conduct the war. My work was going very well until the moment that the U.S.-Israel-Iran
7:40
War started. And at that moment, oil became a scarce commodity and any idea, any thoughts about
7:47
limiting anything about the oil was thrown out the window. I mean, I think that Putin is suffering
7:53
for sure. You can see it in all different ways. Probably the most interesting thing that's
7:57
happening right now is that he's so paranoid that he's turned off the Internet in Moscow and St
8:02
Petersburg. And most people in Russia didn't care about the war. They were all like, not our problem, as long as we live comfortably and fine. And all of a sudden, when they're not
8:10
When they don't have their Internet, they're all squeaking and screaming as if the world is coming to an end
8:18
And so finally Putin is seeing what it feels like for normal Russians to be upset
8:22
Now, they're not upset about Ukrainians being killed every day and civilians being killed
8:26
They're only upset about not having Internet, but at least the war is coming home to them
8:31
Bill Brader, always a pleasure. Thank you very much indeed. Bill, as I told you, is an anti-corruption campaigner and head of the global Magnitsky justice campaign
8:39
campaign so i'm it is clearer now that this is not quite what kemi badenok um claimed in parliament
8:45
yesterday it is a postponement of an introduction but as bill just made crystal clear a um in his
8:51
view it shouldn't have been postponed at all and certainly the money any money raised could be
8:55
and would be used by vladimir putin to fund his war in ukraine and b crucially this three-month
9:02
uh hiatus is something you need to keep a very very close eye on because if it doesn't expire
9:07
immediately after three months, then the situation gets worse and worse and worse
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