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Reports from Iranian state media claim missiles were fired at a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz, a move experts say could mark a major escalation in tensions and the end of the ceasefire. US Central Command (CENTCOM) has denied that any US navy ships have been struck. Former UK Vice Admiral Duncan Potts breaks down what may have happened, the role of geography in limiting US naval power, and what may happen next. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #lewisgoodall #duncanpotts #iranwar #uspolitics #usnews #news #breakingnews #middleeast #trump #donaldtrump #usiranwar #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Iran's Navy preventing what they call an American Zionist warship
0:04
entering the Strait of Hormuz, apparently, according to local media, attacking with two missiles, which has led the US ship to turn around and exit the Strait
0:16
This follows Donald Trump saying that he would use the US Navy to rescue some of the mariners who have been stranded in the Strait since this crisis began
0:25
And apparently, yet again, we are seeing the limits of American naval power in this theatre of the world
0:31
Let's talk now to Vice Admiral Duncan Potts, former Assistant Chief of Naval Staff and Control of the Navy from 2013 to 2014
0:39
Thanks so much for joining us this morning, Vice Admiral. Can we just get a sense from you how significant you think this is, the Iranians hitting that US ship, we're told, with two missiles
0:49
Yeah, well, if indeed it's happened, it's a significant escalation. From what I can see, this is just reports from Iranian news agencies yet
1:02
So like all these things, I'd want to see independent verification of that or some statement from the states
1:10
And some of the, you know, when they say it's turned around and hightailed from the area
1:15
If it had genuinely been hit by two missiles, that may well be disabling
1:21
So I think we need to see what has happened. But what it does say is that it appears that America, with its new operation this morning
1:31
is keen to force the Straits to return trade through the Straits there
1:39
And, you know, this has been almost inevitable since the 28th of February
1:45
Assuming as you say, and we have only had it from Iranian state media, although it is
1:51
being picked up by Western news agencies around the world, assuming it has happened, presumably
1:58
Donald Trump will treat this as you say is a significant escalation Yes and it is I mean if it is genuinely a missile and knowing the area well and I know JASC and the area
2:14
I would make the assumption that it's a shore-based launch anti-ship cruise missile
2:19
This is a major attack. It would have caused major damage. Some people may remember from the tanker war
2:25
when the USS Stark was hit by an Exocet missile. This sounds something similar to that as well
2:33
That was a major escalation as well. And yes, we could see a rapid escalation in the area
2:40
And could you just explain for listeners and viewers, because it is an intriguing and obviously for them involved
2:45
distressing subplot of all of this. I mean, the reason this has come about, at least this is what the president says
2:51
is that he wants to use the US Navy to try and rescue or assist
2:55
the 20,000 mariners, seafarers, on 2,000 ships that have been stuck in the strait since the war began
3:01
So those people and those ships have simply been stuck there since February
3:07
Yes, correct. I mean, the history of the straits goes back. I mean, this is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
3:16
This has been their playbook now since the 1980s and the Iran-Iraq war
3:21
And they know they've had the leverage, they've gone asymmetric, in terms of using multiple small boats
3:28
They've now got drones. They've got submarines. They've got mines. And they've got, you know, coastal defence cruise missiles as well
3:37
that they can use. But it's an international strait. It's been recognised as such for hundreds of years
3:46
The right of freedom of navigation is very clear in international law
3:51
and um you know i can absolutely understand the u.s needing to get that open up again you know
3:59
we all know the statistics now 20 percent of all global hydrocarbons plus many other products
4:04
go through that area perhaps this is a reminder though i mean although as you say assuming it happened it will be a significant escalation In one sense does it not simply reaffirm the strategic nightmare conundrum into which Trump has placed himself
4:19
which is that when it became clear that the regime was not going to fall using air power alone at the very least
4:26
that there was no obvious way of using naval power to reopen the strait
4:30
and therefore, however much he huffs and puffs and gets angry, Iran ultimately is in the driving seat, at least for the moment
4:38
Well, Iran, you know, geography plays to Iran here. Iran is the northern coastline of the Strait of Hormuz
4:46
where it cises in from the Gulf of Oman. Very narrow, you know, just for your listeners, it's like Dover to Calais
4:54
It's a very narrow strait where all that shipping has to go through
4:58
and the Revolutionary Guard Corps have developed an AV over 40 years
5:04
which is optimised for that. They've got swarm tactics, they've got lots of very small vessels
5:11
relatively cheap capability to be able to cause damage there. But equally, having operated out there and having sailed through the Straits of Hormuz
5:21
and been a former commander of a task group for the Americans in the region
5:26
I'm sure they well I know they know all the threats it's been the focus of 5th Fleet
5:33
which is the CENTCOM maritime component commander there for decades now and the Royal Navy was out there
5:40
for decades to force this very thing so I think we need to see what happens
5:45
but if a major US warship has been hit by Iranian missiles
5:50
this is definitely the ceasefire I'm sure the Americans will see as absolutely over
5:57
Is geography really all-conquering in this vice-ameral? I mean, just finally. Is there, I mean, I think one of the things that, clearly, I think has surprised the President
6:07
himself is that there is a sort of assumption that the full might of the US Navy US Armed Forces would in some sense or way be able technologically with its prowess to overcome even geographical advantages
6:20
that Iran might have. But it seems that that is not the case
6:24
that geography is humbling even the awe of the US military and armed services
6:29
Yeah, the geography is very difficult there. And certainly at sea, I used to talk all the time
6:37
about warning and reaction time. So if you're literally sailing very close to the coast, and I notice with the new mission, the US had moved the traffic scheme much closer to Oman as well to increase that warning and reaction time that you need
6:52
But equally, the reports this morning that were coming out, the amount of maritime air power that was assigned to this, where they have complete dominance, you know, would have been covering that in terms of surveillance, but also in terms of capabilities to take out things that were coming off the shore as well
7:13
So I don't discount it. I've sailed through there. The greatest risk is of shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles
7:22
that from the moment of launch to hitting you is measured in one or two minutes and seconds
7:28
So you've got to get your posture right to be able to counter them
7:32
But I would like to see exactly what has happened to see what the implication is
7:37
Vice Admiral Duncan Potts there should say also, as ever with the fog of war
7:42
with this um we are seeing claim claim and counterclaim so a senior u.s official is denying
7:50
that the u.s ship was hit by iranian missiles this is being reported by axios the american
7:55
media organization uh we'll try and bring the latest on this as we get it but as the vice
8:00
admiral was suggesting there very often with these things you've got claim and counterclaim but even
8:05
if there is any truth to it whatsoever and the fact that perhaps it has turned around or whatever
8:09
it happens to be, then it is potentially still a serious escalation in the war. So we'll try and
8:16
get exactly what the details are and what has happened and bring it to you as we get them
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