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'It's been five days and five different narratives': James O'Brien asks, can we trust anything Trump says about Iran? President Trump has circulated a 'draft peace plan' in Iran, with VP JD Vance admitting the US is 'very close' to a deal with Iran. Yet James O'Brien is more than sceptical. Trump has created a world where 'truth no longer exists', as shown through his shifting narrative on the US's progress in Iran, James argues. White House sources have said United States and Iran reached an agreement on a deal to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but President Trump is yet to comment. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #iranwar #iran #uspolitics #trump #netanyahu #middleeast #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
But before that, I mean, a really strange subject, in a sense
0:05
because I'm obviously not a war correspondent, God forbid. I'm far too fearful and squeamish and fond of my own bed
0:14
But I have, over the years, covered military engagements. I've shared, I've had conversations with you about various military engagements
0:22
of varying degrees of seriousness and indeed length. and we've spoken to military veterans, we've spoken to experts
0:30
You have always been able, I think, to get a handle on what is going on, haven't you
0:38
You've always been able to realize, obviously not in Gaza because no journalists were allowed in
0:43
but in the sort of sense of the bigger international picture, you've always been able to get an idea of what was going on
0:51
And I think more diplomatically than militarily, You've known what the aims were
0:58
Whether they were achievable or not is in many ways moot. You've known what the aims were
1:04
You've known what the end game would probably involve. And when it is reported that X has happened
1:09
and that report has its roots in the White House, then you would be minded to think that it's probably true
1:17
Don't attack me for being naive. I am aware that presidents have lied and continue to do so
1:25
But generally speaking, my faith in the fourth estate, which is a fancy pants way of saying the media, the British media, my faith in the fourth estate is rarely higher than when it comes to foreign affairs
1:38
With a few obvious and glaring exceptions. And I noticed on the way home yesterday that a thing I thought was funny wasn't very funny at all
1:52
I have been doing this joke and I think it's quite a good joke
1:57
about it's Monday so it must be a ceasefire it's Tuesday so it must be a threat to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age
2:04
it's Wednesday so it must be that the victory is complete and the war is over
2:09
it's Thursday and it must be that Iran needs to stop attacking despite having an obliterated army
2:14
Iran needs to stop attacking us otherwise we will do such things
2:19
what they are I know not but they shall be the terror of the earth. And now it's Friday, and as you just heard in Dominic's news bulletin
2:26
the US and Iran are very close to a deal, but not there yet, except it's not a deal, it's a memo of understanding
2:32
and it's impossible to say when or if the two sides would finalise any sort of arrangement, which they would probably call a deal
2:38
or at least the White House would, but would be technically a memo of understanding and is almost certain to return to a status quo
2:45
that would be inferior from a Western point of view to the situation that was in place before
2:50
Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump attacked unprovoked Iran. And it will be almost certainly inferior to the deal that was signed by Barack Obama
3:00
or signed when Barack Obama was president of the United States of America, which Donald Trump elected to explode the minute that he became president
3:12
And I like these conversations. We've been lucky enough over the years to speak to some very clever people
3:18
and very well-informed people, much better informed than I am. And I don't say that through any sort of sense of false modesty
3:25
It's one of the things I love most about my job. Sometimes we wade into territory about which I'm not ignorant
3:32
but I don't know anywhere near as much as you may do, and we get extraordinary calls from all sorts of people
3:39
whether they're former members of the American, the US diplomatic corps, or whether they are world authorities on matters maritime with a deep
3:46
and long understanding of what the Strait of Hormuz represents and how it can and can be navigated And of course people who understand Middle Eastern politics in a way that you need to be a little bit more dedicated to a single issue than most of us can be
4:04
And yet we get the calls. People ring us up. And it's stopped
4:10
It's stopped. The articles, the yses... Remember, I have a look at, even if it's a cursory look
4:20
I have a look at every single newspaper every day. I don't really open the Express
4:24
but I have a look at all the other newspapers every day and there's no particular beef with the Express
4:29
it's just never got anything in it that isn't already in the mail I look at most of the newspapers every day
4:36
and I lean towards the ones that have got good foreign desks
4:40
oddly the Telegraph is still pretty near the top of the tree on that
4:44
ditto the Guardian less surprisingly because they haven't gone mad on their comment pages
4:49
in the way that the Telegraph has The Times does a decent job. There are some very, very good foreign correspondents
4:54
The same is true, of course, of broadcast. And I don't watch broadcast news quite as closely as I follow print and online
5:02
But I don't think I've been seeing many detailed and expert yses
5:07
of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on the telly either
5:12
or listening to it on the radio. And it's not fatigue because we are still getting quite a lot of detail
5:19
about what's going on, for example, in Ukraine. The latest figures, if you haven't seen them
5:24
involve estimates that half a million Russian troops have been killed. Half a million Russians have died
5:31
at the altar of Vladimir Putin's epic and uncontrollable arrogance. Half a million human souls, half a million sons and daughters
5:40
wives and husbands. Extraordinary, really, to reflect upon that almost unthinkable number
5:47
but we still know where borders are, we still know where the fronts are
5:52
we still know about drone attacks, one overnight landing in Romania, because it's a military engagement
5:59
The diplomatic side of it is fairly easy to unpick. It's almost a battle between good and evil
6:04
so it lends itself to quite simplistic but I think authentic ysis
6:15
And I think not long ago, America versus Iran would have felt a little bit like that to many people in the West
6:20
The United States has gone to battle against a theocratic, murderous regime
6:24
that hangs its own citizens for fun. I mean, pick a side, lads. It's not exactly difficult, is it
6:30
And yet, who here would confidently state that you can trust the White House
6:35
more on this than you can the Islamic Revolutionary Guard? I'm not even joking. I wish that I was
6:41
Who here can confidently state that the White House that claims it's a ceasefire on a Monday
6:46
a new war on a Tuesday, a victory on a Wednesday, a negotiation on a Thursday, and an imminent deal on a Friday
6:52
Who here can claim that that outlet is more trustworthy than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
6:59
a collection of crackpots and murderers, the likes of which, thankfully, the world rarely sees
7:06
And yet here we are, having very little clue as to what is going on
7:16
I said to you yesterday, again, in retrospect, I mean, it is a good joke
7:20
that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday thing, right? It's funny because it's true
7:25
All it needs is a sort of Craig David reference to be elevated to an even greater comedic level
7:31
But the other thing that I said to you, the really scary thing
7:35
is that one day it will be true. So there's five days and five different narratives
7:43
let's go up to eight days Tuesday of next week Monday of next week
7:49
and eight different narratives and one day it will be true so one day soon what the White House has said will be true But not because of anything that the White House has done or anything that the White House has achieved or anything that the White House has negotiated
8:03
because the shakedown will be complete. And Donald Trump's attempts to protect his own honour
8:10
protect his own vanity, I don't even know. He would have come to a personal internal compromise
8:20
that allows him to pretend that it was a worthwhile exercise and that he has come out on top
8:24
There is no prospect of that happening. There is no earthly way that the status quo at the end of this
8:31
will leave the United States in a stronger position and Iran in a weaker position than the status quo at the beginning
8:39
So, what do we do now? have have have we broken something really valuable here when when you look at this continuing conflict
8:55
when you look at i mean there's a ceasefire and there isn't a ceasefire there's a ceasefire in
9:00
gaza apparently but management netanyahu has announced that he's going to take over 70 percent
9:04
of the territory um i hope it's quick enough for some people the the speed of that attempted
9:10
ethnic cleansing. I look at the situation in Iran, and I don't think it can be ysed
9:19
Because the White House, Donald Trump, has successfully broken everything. He's broken
9:24
every traditional trope. He's broken every way in which we, the public, can actually get a handle
9:31
on what is happening. How on earth do we process, as either punters or professionals, how do we
9:37
process the fact that the story on Monday is different from the story on Tuesday, is different
9:41
from the story on Wednesday, is different from the story on Thursday, is different from the story on
9:45
Friday. And it's nearly quarter past ten, which means Keith will be pointing at his watch in a minute, and I haven't got close to asking you a question
9:53
because I don't think you can answer that. That's not me being conceited. I don't
9:57
think I can answer it. I don't think there is an answer. How do you process
10:01
a world in which the truth doesn't exist anymore on an issue as important
10:05
as, they tell us, nuclear potential in the Middle East. It's mad, right
10:13
So here is the only question we can ask. And through the lens of this question
10:18
I think perhaps or hopefully we will get a little bit more insight
10:23
And we have to keep doing this, you know. That phrase, flooding the zone
10:27
Farage is doing it at the moment with his secret five million quid. He's throwing in so many stories
10:31
Stop pointing at your watch, Keith. He's throwing in so many stories and so many different accounts
10:35
He's even introduced Russian spies to the mix now. He's just hoping that by creating this sort of tsunami of balderdash
10:44
then we'll all get so distracted by the balderdash that we'll lose sight of the kernel of truth at the centre of the story
10:51
which is that he's secretly trousered five million quid from a forum-based billionaire
10:56
whose fortune would exponentially increase if he introduced the policies that he announced
11:02
shortly after trousering the five million quid. he will introduce when he's Prime Minister
11:06
That's the beginning, the end, and the middle of the story. You know, if he'll praise the IRA for 87 quid
11:13
what the hell is he going to do for 5 million? It's the only question that we should really be worrying about
11:17
But when you flood the zone, you can't really make sense of anything
11:25
So, what's happened? 03456060973. What has Donald Trump done in the Middle East and why
11:37
With the specific reference to Iran, what has he done and why did he do it
11:47
0345 6060 973 is the number that you need I mean I don know how you cling to loyalty to the Trump project at a time like this because he lies to you 99 of the time and on the one occasion when he not lying it an accidental issue
12:03
It's a coincidence. But just step right back to the beginning. Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to attack Iran for years
12:09
Every other president of the United States of America has quite rightly said, don't be stupid
12:13
Somehow Trump got persuaded into it, cajoled into it, conned into it, bullied into it
12:20
I don't know. And he went in, and what did he think was going to happen
12:27
Why did he do it, and what has happened? This is a president who promised no wars
12:31
a president who promised no wars in the Middle East. I've stopped ysing it, I've stopped discussing it with you
12:37
because the zone has been flooded. Let's try and un-flood the zone a bit together today
12:43
Let's just try and work out how we got to where we are. How have we got to a place where there's a ceasefire on a Monday
12:50
a threat to return Iran to the Stone Age on a Tuesday, a declaration of complete victory and obliteration of the enemy on a Wednesday
12:58
a warning that if the enemy doesn't stop fighting, despite being obliterated, then we'll have to start hitting them even harder on a Thursday
13:04
And any minute now, we're going to have a ceasefire. We're going to have a deal
13:08
We're going to have a memorandum of understanding. Any minute now, it's all going to be finished on a Friday
13:14
I'm going to say that again. I may get my words slightly mixed up because I haven't got a 2020 memory
13:19
But it's a ceasefire on a Monday. It's a threat to bomb the place back to the Stone Age on a Tuesday
13:25
A threat of absolute genocide on a Tuesday, although apparently that depends on how quickly it happens
13:31
It's a warning on a Wednesday. No, a declaration of epic victory on a Wednesday
13:37
They've absolutely obliterated the opposition. And yet on a Thursday they claim that the opposition is hurting them badly enough
13:43
to make another threat of retaliation. And on a Friday, it's announced that they've almost got to the ceasefire
13:48
that they last announced on Monday. That is absolutely bonkers. It is almost beyond comprehension
13:56
let alone articulation and ysis. So what we do is we rewind back to the beginning
14:02
and we try and work out how this happened by asking what has happened
14:05
What happened? What has happened? What has actually happened? 0345 6060 973 is the number that you need
14:19
How have we ended up, and you can bring the media into it
14:22
you can bring the White House into it, you can bring the Republicans into it, you can bring Benjamin Netanyahu's regime into it
14:27
how have we ended up in a world where someone can start a war
14:33
and then offer up in the space of a week five different stories
14:37
about what is going on in that war. Five different stories about what is going on in that war
14:44
And listen, I think I'd have poo-pooed some of the financial answers to this question a month ago
14:48
I'm not poo-pooing them now. There can't be that much smoke without any fire
14:53
The way in which these bets are placed, either on the prediction markets or the stock market
14:57
and then he announces that it's almost over and oil goes up, and then he announces that it isn't and oil goes down and then it is and it goes up and it goes
15:04
It's like a bloody penny whistle. but I just want your explanation
15:07
of what happened why it started and why what happened subsequently happened alright
15:13
and listen this is a big ask I appreciate that especially on a very sweltering Friday
15:19
but if we look away from this stuff it only ever seems to get worse
15:22
it never gets better and the clever people have stopped talking about it
15:26
because there is nothing for the clever people to do what's the point of writing a thousand words on Monday
15:31
about an imminent ceasefire when on Tuesday they start bombing again What's the point of writing 1,000 words on a Wednesday
15:38
about how he's going to bomb them back to the Stone Age
15:41
when on a Thursday he claims that they've already been obliterated? Is there method in the madness
15:47
Hit the numbers now. You will get through. 0-3-4-5-6-0-6-0-9-7-3
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