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Russia could attack a Nato country within weeks to test the alliance, US intelligence has warned in a shocking new development.
Putin may attempt to test Nato's resolve with a small land incursion or cyber attack at some point between this autumn and 2029, US officials told the Wall Street Journal.
Col Martin O'Donnell, a spokesperson for Nato, said the alliance was "ready to deter and defend as necessary", adding that it was "always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios".
Matt Frei is joined by foreign policy expert John Lough to analyse how serious this threat is.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
#mattfrei #nato #putin #russia #europe #trump #LBC
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0:00
So I mentioned that there is this intelligence report out there from the United States worrying
0:05
not predicting, but, you know, warning that there might be an imminent attack within weeks or months
0:10
by Russia against NATO territory somewhere. Now, this is completely plausible because there have
0:15
been smaller attacks and incursions, you know, in the recent years, ever since the full-blown
0:21
Ukraine war. And of course, it's completely plausible as well in political terms that
0:26
Russia may want to test NATO's resolve in Article 5 at a time when Donald Trump has been more or
0:31
less declaring his own political war, rhetorical war against NATO members in Europe. This would be
0:36
a perfect time to see whether NATO actually still holds together or not. And that also makes it very
0:41
dangerous indeed. So let's speak to John Loch. He's the head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian
0:47
Strategy Centre, a former NATO representative to Russia. John, good morning. Good morning. Good
0:52
How seriously are you taking these intel reports and where are they from, as far as we know
0:59
Well, we don't know exactly where they're from in the US. I think they have to be taken seriously
1:06
US intelligence, at least of late, if we look back to the build up to the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022
1:14
the US intelligence reports were 100% correct. Yeah. So it's possible that they still have very good sources and they know something more than other intelligence services in Europe, for example, know at present
1:27
But I think if we look at the situation in the war in Ukraine and the way Ukrainians have fought back over the last six months
1:35
really taking the war to Russia in new ways with this intermediate and deep strike campaign of drones and missiles
1:45
They're inflicting some serious damage on the Russian economy, attacking oil refineries
1:49
Now the Russian equivalent of Amazon, which is about 10 percent of retail trade in Russia
1:54
Wild berries. Yeah. So all these things point to the fact that the Russians need to respond
2:00
And there are a number of options here and they include escalation
2:05
There are some people in Russia who would like Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukrainians I think there almost zero chance of that happening Because equally there are others who think that Putin should be in fact putting pressure on those countries supporting the Ukrainians at
2:21
the moment. And there are a number of leading European countries doing that. And that seems to
2:25
me to be actually the most likely variant, that they'll pursue some form of what's known as hybrid
2:32
warfare or sub-threshold activity to test the defences of NATO, as you were saying in your
2:38
introduction, and see what the reaction is. And from the Russian perspective, try to sap the will
2:44
of European governments to support Ukraine. Just quickly on the technical nuclear weapons
2:48
that you say people in Moscow have ruled out, why would they have ruled it out? I'm glad to hear it
2:53
by the way. I think it's very unlikely because it's extremely dangerous. It's unnecessary. I don't
3:01
think the Russian general staff wants to risk a nuclear war with NATO, because even if you're
3:07
uncertain of what the reaction might be, as long as US troops are in Europe, and NATO at least
3:14
formally exists, you can't predict the reaction. So this would be an extreme escalation. I also
3:19
think that the Chinese and for this extent, the Indians would be a factor here that Putin would
3:24
have to consider. So it would be a truly desperate move. And ultimately, I think he's interested in
3:29
his own survival. And if he were to give an order of this kind, I think there's a danger within the
3:34
Russian system that, for example, the military would simply refuse to carry out the order
3:39
And of course, when we say tactical nuclear weapon, it makes it sound sort of almost small
3:43
and manageable, but it's not, is it? And the danger of kind of all-out escalation then becomes
3:48
much more real. Yeah, the danger of escalation would then be extremely high. A crisis of that
3:54
kind would would be very challenging to contain okay let's get back to the things that are more
4:00
likely then i mean we know as i said in my introduction is i think you alluded to as well
4:04
that the russians have already made incursions they've cut undersea cables they have you know
4:09
there are these you know drone incursions into polish airspace uh into romania then we had these
4:15
weird things that appeared at leipzig airport a few days ago is this what we talking about or are they you know is the intelligence report talking about something that next level Well I haven seen the intelligence report in question
4:29
so I can only really hazard a guess. Yeah, but you're pointing to things that the Russians have
4:33
been doing for a while. This is in fact, the second incident at Leipzig airport, there was
4:39
another one in 2024. And this, this could have been very dangerous if it had not been for the
4:44
vigilance of a bus driver apparently who spotted this drone that had landed very close to a
4:49
Ukrainian transport aircraft. And it was equipped in such a way that it could have blown up the fuel
4:54
tanks of that aircraft is what I understand. So there's something potentially quite serious
4:59
So apart from undersea cables and Russian ships of various kinds loitering over cables in different
5:08
places we know this is going on. We can also see a lot of evidence of disinformation activities
5:15
And I think these are very important for the moment. For example, in Germany, where there are
5:19
three regional elections taking place in the east of the country in September, which the Russians
5:23
had definitely been trying to interfere with. And then there's a whole question of cyber operations
5:28
And there, I think we don't have a full picture of exactly what the Russians have been trying
5:32
There have been certainly attacks on the German parliament, for example. They hacked Angela Merkel's
5:38
emails a while back. And I think we have to assume this has been going on much more extensively
5:44
And just to say, the reason why those state elections in Eastern Germany are important is because the more pro-Russian AFD alternative for Germany party is polling very highly indeed
5:54
And if they actually get into power in these Eastern states, and they may very well do
5:58
especially in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, which goes to the polls on the 6th of September
6:03
that would be a major blow for the Christian Democrats, for the so-called firewall to keep
6:07
them out of power. And we know the Russians have been trying to interfere in European and indeed
6:11
American politics for years now. And so this sort of warfare on lots of different levels has to be
6:17
taken very seriously. But again, if this is just a continuation of what we've already had for quite
6:23
a long time, then I think the public here or the government won't take it that seriously
6:28
I mean it quite hard to talk about you know Russian attacks on NATO territory if there not something more visible or something more dramatic Not that I wishing it for one second that we had so far
6:39
So does the complacency just continue? Well, there is a danger, of course, that the complacency can continue
6:47
But, you know, now watching the fact that Ukraine is defenceless against ballistic missile attack and doesn't seem any likelihood because of the shortage, global shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles and other missile systems, it looks as though they're going to be very exposed as the next winter approaches
7:06
So the Russians could and I think almost certainly will target more of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, maybe even the water and sewerage systems of major cities
7:15
and then we could have very large numbers of ukrainians on the move and moving of course
7:20
westwards and this could create another another crisis of its own and i tend to think that is in
7:26
fact going to keep european governments and indeed european publics very exercised but we saw the
7:31
reaction to theota in north africa the spanish exclave didn't we so i mean weaponizing the flows
7:36
of people is something that they've done in the past and they can do again they can certainly do
7:41
it again. And it's another tool they have available. Putin has no reverse gear. He has to
7:49
from his perspective, win this war against Ukraine and its allies. He doesn't just see this as a war
7:55
against Ukraine. It's something much wider. So for that reason, he wants to try to, of course
8:02
put NATO out of business and therefore to exploit these divisions and the biggest division you've
8:07
referred to between the United States and some of its European allies. If you look at the way the US has treated Denmark, for example, it's clear that we have a big problem within the alliance
8:17
So this is potentially a big opportunity. But I think Putin has to reckon with the fact that
8:23
Trump is extremely unpredictable, even for him. He thought that he had Trump wrapped around his
8:29
finger a year ago when the Alaska summit took place, and it didn't work out. The Americans are
8:34
still selling weapons to the Europeans for Ukraine, and they're still providing intelligence support
8:38
which is being used, as we understand, to in fact attack targets within Russia
8:43
So this is a quite complicated picture
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