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Donald Trump said Russia has "lost control" of its diesel industry after a wave of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries.
The President has pleaded with Zelenskyy to 'stop hitting Putin's oil refineries' in a Truth Social post, as petrol prices soar.
This comes off the back of European spy chiefs warning that Moscow is planning more decisive action against NATO.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of intelligence that points to a Russian attack on a nato country in the coming months.
Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize-Winning Historian and Staff Writer for The Atlantic, joins Andrew Marr to discuss the threat that Russia poses.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
#andrewmarr #AnneApplebaum #LBC #Russia #Ukraine #Ukrainewar #Trump #Donaldtusk
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0:00
Donald Trump's preparing to meet President Zelensky as well as Andy Burnham this week
0:04
telling him that Ukraine must stop hitting Russian refineries. In the meantime, many British politicians are warning of a proxy war with Putin
0:13
Anne Applebaum is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist with expertise as well in the transatlantic relationship
0:19
There are so many alarming reports swirling around. What did she really think was going on
0:24
My impression is that the Russians are certainly planning an escalation. They're making preparations for what could be a mass mobilization
0:34
There have been a number of incidents in recent weeks in Europe
0:38
An armed drone found at a German airport, a drone crossing the border into missiles crossing into the border into Lithuania
0:47
A few weeks ago, there was an attempt to blow up a passenger train in Poland
0:52
So the scale of what's being attempted is growing. The intensity of the bombardment of Ukrainian civilians is growing
1:01
So you now see Russians deliberately hitting passenger trains, buses, ordinary people on bicycles
1:11
And not only are they doing that, they're posting videos of themselves doing it
1:15
So we see a kind of escalation of rhetoric, an escalation of attacks on Europe, language about Europe that's very harsh
1:22
And so the chances of them going further seem more likely right now
1:29
And to what extent is this because of desperation around Putin and inside the Kremlin
1:35
There's obviously big economic problems building up inside Russia, and another mass mobilization would be hugely unpopular
1:41
Just talk us through what's going on in Russia at the moment. So yes, Russia is not winning the war
1:48
On the front line, they're even losing territory. Recently, they lost some. The front line is now an open zone where Ukrainians have visibility of everything a Russian tank a Russian unit anything that comes into this kind of 30 zone is visible to the Ukrainians
2:06
so they're not able to move. My guess is that what the Russians are trying to do is scare Europe
2:15
So if they can persuade the Europeans not to support Ukraine, if they can promote anti-European
2:23
or anti-Ukrainian or pro-Russian political parties in Europe, they will seek to do so
2:28
And they're trying to use the intimidation of, you know, what you can call it a hybrid war
2:34
but it's really a kinetic war, you know, using real missiles and real drones and real explosives
2:40
They're trying to use that campaign to make people afraid and make them back off of helping Ukraine
2:46
This is presumably, just to follow up on your question, this is presumably because they see that there is an endgame
2:52
They can't continue this indefinitely. Their economy is suffering. And depending on which
2:57
calculation you hear, they've lost something like 30 to 40 percent of the refining capacity of their
3:03
oil refineries. The Ukrainians are hitting those regularly, as well as other infrastructure
3:08
And so there's just a limit. They're not winning. There's a limit to what they can do
3:12
And now they're looking to undermine the alliance that supports Ukraine in the hope
3:18
I think, a kind of last chance hope that that will allow them to win the war. So if those are the weaknesses on their side, as it were, let's talk about the weaknesses on our side, because recently Germany has been the great re-armer in terms of money
3:32
But those victories by the AFD Alternative für Deutschland are presumably very worrying, given they're more pro-Putin or more pro-Russian or more anti-Ukrainian positions they've been taking in East Germany
3:45
Yeah. So, to be clear, the AFD are actively pro-Russian. Several of the people in the AFD
3:52
have had open support with Russian money They use and repost Russian propaganda This is maybe the most pro political party in Europe So that just to be clear
4:07
At the same time, they have won victories in local elections. They are not in a position to win a national election
4:13
So that's not on the cards right now. But they've certainly succeeded in putting pressure on the German chancellor, pressure
4:22
on the German ruling coalition. I don't think it's going to result in the Germans abandoning Ukraine, but you can see them trying to, you know, you can see the political divisions in Germany growing because of this
4:37
There's a Russian long game there, quite clearly. To what extent does that change the question of military leadership in Europe
4:44
Because clearly Poland spends a lot of money on munitions and is sounding more and more confident about its military position
4:52
The Baltic states are again geared up and they sound very, very unflinching given the Russian threats to them
5:00
Do you think you can say that the front line states, the Baltics and Poland, are now really leading the rest of Europe
5:07
So I would say it's a broader coalition than that. I would say it's the Baltic states, it's Poland, it's Scandinavia
5:13
So Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, these are all countries that are very committed both to arming Ukraine as well as to arming themselves
5:20
And actually, I would include Germany. Germany has undergone this massive rearmament and military spending
5:30
And as I said, right now, the German coalition and German leadership remains dedicated to helping Ukraine
5:36
And I think in terms of sheer numbers, maybe not in terms of percent of GDP, but in terms of sheer numbers, they're still the most important European countries supporting Ukraine
5:46
So I wouldn't eliminate them. I mean of course the real question is you know in the case of an escalation that involved a NATO state what will the U do And this is just a question mark It not clear right now what position the United States would take Absolutely You lead me perfectly on to my next question
6:06
because, of course, you have written about autocracies, Autocracy Inc., in the past
6:12
The other big question that everyone's worried about at the moment is AI. AI can only be regulated by some kind of deal between President Xi
6:21
and there are rumors about his health at the moment, and President Trump, and they're meeting later this week
6:25
What prospects do you think we have of a genuine agreement between these two leaders on AI
6:32
So I am worried that Trump, both because of his family's investments in the industry and because of some of the advisors around him and because he's afraid of the whole American stock market right now balances on the AI industry, which is the most important engine of it
6:52
I'm worried that he will not take the steps that are necessary to begin this conversation
7:00
And I'm also worried, and I think, you know, this is a nonpartisan statement
7:05
I'm worried that he doesn't understand the issues, that he doesn't grasp them
7:09
He doesn't understand how AI works or what exactly the dangers are
7:13
And so it's very unfortunate that there's someone like that in the White House right now
7:17
And we're in this strange position where it does appear that the Chinese leadership
7:21
understands the positions much better. And we've had a lot of Chinese AI labs coming forward
7:26
and saying we're really worried as well, as are the Western ones. No, I mean, I think the Chinese are
7:36
you know, right now have a, there's a, you know, certainly the leadership understands the issues
7:41
and understands what's at stake better than the American president. I mean, there may be
7:46
there are certainly people at the highest levels of the American economy and maybe of politics as well
7:50
who do understand it, but they're not going to be in the room when Trump meets Xi
7:55
It feels like a momentous week ahead. Nobody better to talk about it with than yourself
7:59
Anne Applebaum, thank you very much indeed
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