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Putin says Europe is 'preparing for war' against Russia as NATO warns of an 'intensified threat' from the Russian leader.
John Foreman, Former British Defence Attaché to Moscow and Kyiv, speaks to Ben Kentish about Putin's latest efforts to pressure European leaders into reducing support for Ukraine.
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0:00
But let's focus for now on some of the foreign policy issues that Burnham and President Trump
0:04
are likely to be discussing on Tuesday, starting with what is being billed this weekend as the
0:09
growing threat that Russia poses not just to Britain, but to all of our NATO allies as well
0:15
Lots to talk about in that regard with John Foreman, former British defence attache to Moscow
0:20
and Kiev and a former Royal Navy officer commanding two warships. John, good to have
0:25
you with us this morning. We'll start, if we could, with the reports coming out of other European
0:30
capitals, particularly Warsaw and Poland, about what might be a kind of brewing, escalating Russian
0:38
campaign against NATO members, talk that the Kremlin has drawn up plans for drone strikes
0:44
for Russian-sponsored terror attacks, possibly even missile strikes that would be billed as
0:50
accidental. What are you hearing about whether we are on the cusp of some sort of new front in
0:57
Russia's war against NATO? Well, good morning, Ben. Another week, another scare, I think
1:04
And I think some of the rhetoric flying around this week was deeply unhelpful. I thought that
1:11
the comments by the Estonians and the Latvians, who are extremely close to the problem of Russia
1:16
and actually focus on it on an hourly basis was much calmer and said they have not seen any uptick
1:21
in the direct Russia threat, military threat against NATO countries. And that's backing up
1:27
what the Supreme All-Alai command in Europe, the US General in Brussels and in Mons, and also
1:32
our own very, very senior British official said to the media a couple of weeks ago that the
1:36
threat of a conventional attack against NATO territory remains remote, either that's 5% or less
1:42
That's a conventional attack, I suppose. What we're hearing about is kind of unconventional attacks through Russia, through proxies, effectively, where the Russians, for example, organize a terror attack that they claim has nothing to do with them
1:56
Is that the sort of violence that is a more likely outcome, do you think, John
2:02
Yeah, I think the language has got blurred. And I think, you know, Russia has been waging a campaign of unconventional warfare against Europe for 100 years
2:10
It comes and goes. The means of that attack changes. But obviously, I think the moment President Putin has decided to escalate that upwards
2:18
So we've seen the Arsene attack against the former Prime Minister's House. We've seen sabotage attacks
2:23
We've seen cyber attacks. We've seen disinformation. I think the whole point of this is to induce fear in European public
2:31
That's why we're talking about it. To put pressure on our politicians, who then reduce support to Ukraine
2:37
And I think one thing that Andy Burnham was very clear about when he went to Kiev a couple of weeks ago was actually we will not be distracted
2:44
We should not be distracted from supporting Ukraine to help defend itself. So I think we should anticipate this sort of unconventional campaign continuing and ramping up
2:54
But I think, you know, we must be careful not to sort of get into a cycle of doom and despair and to spiral downwards
3:00
Some of these dire warnings and predictions, in your view, are in and of themselves potentially Kremlin propaganda
3:07
Yeah, I think they have a word for it. It's fear inducement, and that's basically part of their theory of deterrence
3:14
They want to deter us from supporting Ukraine. They also want to weaken our European bonds because they want to sort of splinter the political cohesion inside the alliance and they want to split America from Europe And I think again that why it important for the Prime Minister to speak to Donald Trump It important for NATO to remain united and cohesive
3:32
and it's not just to improve our military defences, also our defences against this Russian activity
3:38
Well, let's talk about that now, and the latest round of strikes that we've seen overnight on Moscow by Ukraine
3:44
The Russians saying they've shot down 1,600 Ukrainian drones. in what's being described as Ukraine's biggest ever drone attack on Russia
3:53
And we've seen these kind of escalating attacks, haven't we, John, by Ukraine, using the quite incredible drone technology
3:59
Are they having much of an impact, these drone strikes, inside Russian territory
4:04
I think there was two aims for the Ukrainian campaign, and obviously with the elections, the third day of the elections today
4:09
One was to show the Russian people that President Putin can't defend their country
4:14
So every time Russians look out the window and they see, you know, oil refunders blowing up or fractures being destroyed, they can say
4:21
well, hold on, you promised us, Mr. Putin, this was a special military operation, limited, and here we are being under bombardment for the Ukrainians
4:29
I think the second thing is to, or the Ukrainians are more practical, so put grit in the oyster to increase the pain on Russian logistics and economics
4:37
We know that Russia is running a significant budget deficit. I think the targeting of the Ukrainian tax has been very careful and consistent and legal in
4:46
comparison to what the Russians have been doing against Ukrainian cities and killing civilians. And it's really to bring the cost of war home to the Russian economy in terms of money and also
4:55
psychologically to the Russian people. I wanted to ask you about those elections
4:59
Russia's heading to the polls today for the third day, the final day of those parliamentary elections
5:03
I mean, in a country where free and fair elections are a distant dream, sadly, John
5:08
How much significance will these elections have, if any? Well, I mean, I wrote down some words about how I've described them
5:16
Obviously, there's a sham, a farcical and a farrago. The last elections when I was in Moscow five years ago were not free and fair
5:23
And I think these are even less free and fair. And I think all the sort of dark magic practices, the Kremlin, about having voters vote by a barrel of gun or ballot stuffing is all there to ensure a supermajority for Putin's ruling party
5:37
and to provide this image that the people of Russia are behind him
5:41
in his mad decision to invade Ukraine. But I think they do matter. They matter for the Kremlin to assess public opinion
5:47
the true state of it. The results will be obviously forged, but actually they will know the data
5:52
and see where people voted and who they voted for. I think they matter for Putin to legitimise his rule
5:58
because, again, in a dictatorship, the only way you can get legitimisation
6:02
is through these sort of demonstrations of public loyalty. And also, they matter for the elite to suck up to Putin
6:08
So I don't expect them to change the direction of travel. I mean, obviously, there's a lot of discussion about mobilization
6:15
I'm not convinced Putin needs to or wants to mobilize because the risks outweigh the rewards
6:20
I think my moral life scenario is it's a steady Kremlin as it goes, get past these elections
6:24
declare victory, show how great the Russian people are behind Putin and then carry on
6:29
Just talk us through, if you would, John, Putin's standing between the start of the
6:35
Ukrainian invasion and now. There's a lot of conjecture, a lot of speculation about whether
6:40
he been significantly weakened whether the kind of ongoing failure to seize territory in Ukraine will be his downfall and so on What your perspective on the impact that that invasion and the subsequent war has had on Putin grip on power
6:58
Well, I think his grip on power remains strong. And I think there's a lot of talk in the West about, you know
7:04
this latest incident in Ukraine is going to lead to the fall of Putin and a new success
7:09
So I think he looks pretty secure in his rule because he's cowed the elites, especially after the murder of Navalny and Pogosian a couple of years ago
7:19
And the extremely accelerated campaign of fear, not just against us, but also against the Russian people, that you can go down for seven years for liking a tweet
7:27
It really stops people coming out to protest. I think on his personal standing, I mean, you have to be careful about polling in a dictatorship
7:35
But I think it's clear if you look at the trends, his level of popularity has gone down
7:39
And I think that's why he's been associating himself with the elections more, to say, you know, look, my races may go down, but I'm still a strong leader
7:46
I'm still there to defend Russia. I'm still a historic figure. It's sort of largely irrelevant, what is public standing in
7:51
As you say, a country that is such a dictatorship, where democracy is such a sham, does it really matter what the masses think of it
7:59
No, I think the Kremlin have always been concerned about his public level
8:03
And that's why they've always tried to keep it around about 60%. Anything below that matters to them
8:07
And that's why I think you've seen a big push to get the turnout during the elections, because the bigger the turnout, the more they can say, hey, the Russian people, when it came
8:14
to matter on the elections, they turned out. But I think on the wider question, I think Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has been
8:21
a strategic catastrophe for Russia and Russians. You know, the British are now saying they've lost half a million dead, maybe a million
8:27
more wounded, catastrophic damage to the economy and to the army and international standing
8:33
And Putin's been very much mortgaging the country's future for the present
8:38
The war's consumed everything. Every institution in Russia has been ground down
8:42
You've got millions of people living in exile. You've got sort of despondency, I think, is another key measure inside Russia has gone up in terms of domestic violence and drunkenness and murder rates
8:52
So he can claim that the Russian people are behind him. He can claim that he's a popular leader
8:57
But actually, I think the truth is much more complicated for him. I wanted to ask you, John, about the Greenland deal that was announced by Donald Trump 24 hours or so ago, this new Greenland security deal that he claims is going to be transformative for protecting Western interests against Russian incursions in the Arctic and so on. Is that how you see it
9:16
I mean, I think with Fed say that I think America has legitimate security concerns in the Arctic
9:23
and especially due to global warming and the breakup of the ice and the new route of the
9:30
safe approach from Russia and China. So that was clearly stated, the national security strategy
9:35
I agree with it. We should all be doing more in the North. It's the way it's gone about it
9:39
It's been an absolute shambles. I mean, it's the same similar way the shambles. They've gone away
9:43
about trying to get peace between Russia and Ukraine. It's another threatening, bullying, predatory behaviour
9:50
over the last couple of years towards the Danes and towards NATO, which has been completely counterproductive
9:56
I think two reasons. One, it's damaged, you know, America's standing inside NATO
10:00
And secondly, it's got many countries in Europe saying we're going to need to hedge our bets towards Russia
10:05
towards America if America going to behave towards that So they signed a deal which I think was a sort of sticking plaster on the saw but I think the saw hasn gone away
10:17
And I think people looking askance, especially with America's now reconsidering its false posture inside the alliance in NATO
10:23
Again, can America be trusted? Can Trump be trusted in particular? And why should we have to put up with America behaving like this
10:32
Just lastly then, on the issue of Donald Trump, We've been talking a lot on the programme this morning about that really fascinating and crucial meeting between Burnham and President Trump on Tuesday
10:42
As a former British defence attache, experienced diplomat, John, what approach do you think our prime minister should be taking to a man who is not known for his own experience of diplomacy
10:54
President Trump. Yeah, I mean, that's just an important moment. You know, I think Andy Burnham's first foreign visit was to Ukraine, which I think was important
11:02
I think he did quite well, actually. I think the messaging was very clear and resolute
11:06
because he hasn't got much foreign policy background. I don't know who's come from Manchester
11:11
Now he's been thrust to the world stage. So that's what I think is a sort of rehearsal
11:15
should we say, for what's going to go on in Washington. I don't think it's a set piece meeting
11:19
I think it's in the margins of the G20, whatever it's going to be. The United Nations. Yes, the UN
11:24
So it's not going to be a set piece, you know, Tony Blair meets Bush at Camp David
11:28
But I think it is important. I mean, I think my approach, my recommended approach would be don't do this don't for the small stuff you know the slapping
11:36
hands you know the uh trivia that burnham likes to see talking about when he's talking about the
11:40
with the irish prime minister about cups of tea and all that it's actually and the names of bread
11:44
rolls in manchester it's focusing on the big issues here that you know britain is a resolute
11:49
partners united states britain's the greatest ally for america inside europe that we have longer
11:54
standing uh cultural financial military ties those are important and and the president and
12:01
Prime Minister Burnham is going to carry on that trajectory. Just on that, let's find very finally on that point about bread rolls and so on
12:06
I mean, there is an argument that says Andy Burnham is a bit of a lightweight when it comes to foreign policy, has very little experience of it, hasn't really got the connections that
12:14
even someone like Keir Starmer had. Do you kind of pick up that fear in defence and diplomatic circles, John, that our Prime
12:20
Minister right now is an absolute novice when it comes to these huge issues of international
12:24
security and safety? Yeah, I think I said the same on X, actually
12:30
You know, I don't want the prime minister, you know, comparing his best cup of tea and his favorite chocolate bar
12:36
I want him to be a serious individual on the world stage. You know, the prime minister, as some of you said yesterday, you know, he may not
12:42
Burnham may not be interested in foreign affairs. He may want to be a domestic cost of living prime minister, but foreign affairs are interested in him
12:48
And we're seeing what's going on in Saudi Arabia today, in the Gulf, in Yemen, in Ukraine
12:54
on European security, on rearmament, on getting to 3.5%, on China, on AI
12:59
These are massive, massive issues, and I'd much prefer him to be focused on that rather than bolstering his own, quote, popularity, unquote, on TikTok
13:10
John, really interesting. Thank you very much for coming on. That's John Foreman, former British defence attaché to Moscow and Kiev and a former Royal Navy officer commanding two warships
13:19
You can talk about vape shops and buses all you like, Prime Minister
13:23
But John, spot on. The real issues that you will be judged on come back to foreign affairs and the massive implication that they have for all of us back here
13:33
So a really, really interesting week ahead
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