Up next in 10
Simon Marks is joined by former Moscow and Washington correspondent Martin Sixsmith to analyse how Trump is turning America into 'Putin's Russia'.
6:51 | How Trump's tariffs will damage the US economy
8:53 | China, US, Russia: Are we living in a tri-polar world?
10:40 | How did Trump convince the media that he's not a 'crook'?
15:09 | Are we appeasing an aggressor?
21:53 | Can a legitimate opposition defeat Putin?
24:11 | Has Putin given Trump a 'literal playbook'?
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0:00
I wanted to start by asking you about a distinction between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump
0:06
The book is obviously all about similarities between the two of them
0:10
But there is a distinction in the sense that when Donald Trump came to power
0:14
and when he first decided to run for office, everybody in America
0:18
and indeed most people around the world, knew exactly who he was. You and I will both remember that when Vladimir Putin was suddenly unveiled
0:27
as Boris Yeltsin's successor in Russia. There was that press conference where I think it was a Scandinavian journalist
0:34
who put her hand up and asked the question, who's Putin? Because none of us had any idea
0:41
And that's an extraordinary distinction that sort of reveals in many ways
0:45
the remarkable nature of Vladimir Putin's rise while Donald Trump, frankly, you know
0:51
basically had to persuade people to back him, but they already knew who he was
0:55
Good evening to you, Martin. I mean, it's a marvellous question. I mean, absolutely true about Putin. We saw him come from nowhere. Yeltsin had been president for the 1990s and he'd had a whole succession of prime ministers, one after another. And they were kind of, you know, functionaries who came and went
1:13
And along came Vladimir Putin as his prime minister. And we all thought, well, he'll be another here today, gone tomorrow prime minister
1:21
But then Yeltsin took the surprise decision to step down before the end of his term
1:25
And under the Russian constitution, the prime minister automatically becomes the acting president
1:31
And Putin was a man who kept his cards close to his chest. He'd been a former KGB operative, so he was very good at that
1:37
But once he got in power, he was not going to let it go. he began by mouthing the same sort of support for western style freedoms and liberal democracy
1:48
that yeltsin had said he supported during those nine years in the 1990s but within three years
1:54
he'd completely turned things around and he'd gone from being a supporter of liberal democracy
1:59
to the man who's installed the centralized personalized militarized autocracy that we
2:06
now see him running. I mean, both men have been on obviously individual journeys. But the point
2:11
of this book is that you see absolutely clear parallels. And as I was saying, in the early
2:18
stages of the book, you argue that the distinction between them is that, you know, one of them
2:25
followed in the footsteps of the other. Explain that to people. Well, I think it's the most
2:31
remarkable geopolitical shift in the tectonic plates that we've seen probably in our recent
2:38
lifetimes. Because Vladimir Putin, as you said earlier, he was elected to the post of president
2:45
He didn't seize it. He wasn't a dictator who came to power on the back of a tank. He was elected
2:51
and he then dismantled democracy from within. So he shifted Russia from being a sort of
2:58
proto-democracy. It was never a complete Western-style paragon of virtue in democratic terms
3:04
but it was sort of moving towards a Western-style of liberal market democracy. And Putin took that
3:09
model, and within three years, he got rid of the democratic safeguards, he brought power into his
3:14
own hands, and he was the one man in charge. And maybe that wasn't completely surprising
3:21
because Russia had never had that sort of tradition of democracy, but what was remarkably
3:25
surprising was when Donald Trump came to power, also elected, of course, and did exactly the same
3:31
thing. He was up against more obstacles than Putin was because democratic safeguards in Russia were
3:38
pretty flimsy and Putin rode through them very quickly. But Donald Trump has made a very good
3:42
fist of trying to dismantle the checks and balances which have limited presidential power
3:48
in America. I mean, I have to say, reading this book, as someone who, like yourself, was based in
3:52
Moscow. I was there from 1991 to 1993. And since 1993, I've been in Washington, DC. I have actually
4:01
as I've read this book over the last few days, I felt like my life is flashing before my eyes
4:06
Because what you and your son Daniel do so successfully here is that you basically just
4:14
remind readers of everything these two men have done and everything that they have said
4:21
to hollow out the democracies in the respective countries that they're leading
4:28
And I think that's a good point, because it's all been done by incremental little steps
4:32
It's like, you know, the metaphor, the frog that is put into a bottle of cold water
4:39
and eventually the temperature gets hotter and hotter and hotter. The frog doesn't notice it's happening until it's dead
4:45
And that's kind of what's happened. I do want to say that, like you, you know, I spent a lot of time in Moscow, a lot of time in Washington
4:50
I love Russia, I love America, I'm saddened by what's happening in both countries
4:56
and, you know, like you, I think the finger of blame can be pointed at these two men
5:01
Putin in Russia and Trump in America. The difference is, of course, that Putin has, he's got to the end, he's got to the end point
5:10
he now has absolute unchallenged power as president. Trump isn't there yet, so there's still a chance to stop it happening
5:15
Yes, well, you write in the book that compared to Putin, Trump is a novice in the imposition of autocratic control
5:23
And you also make the point, and this is a quote, that unfortunately for Trump, he had a problem that his friend in the Kremlin didn't have, the US Constitution
5:35
And that's to do with term limits, because as in America, so in Russia, the Constitution stated that one person can serve as president for only two terms
5:44
Putin used up his two terms very early on and he still wanted to be president so he did that
5:51
little switch with his prime minister Dmitry Medvedev who became president for one term
5:56
Putin served as prime minister and then he said oh well now the time limits have been reset I can
6:02
come back and I can be president again he did for two terms got to the end of those and still wanted
6:08
to be president so he got the supreme court the constitutional court in Russia to rewrite the
6:13
rules and he's now serving one more term he could do another one after this he could be still
6:19
president in his early 80s trump has the same problem he's serving his second term now but in
6:25
that sort of great blustering style donald trump has he's saying well you know maybe we could rewrite
6:30
the rules and the white house is now putting out t-shirts with trump 2028 rewrite the rules on them
6:36
so who knows what's going to happen yeah and as you know of course is is on again off again uh
6:41
political advisor Steve Bannon, keeps saying there are multiple ways in which Donald Trump
6:47
can still be president in January of 2029. If Donald Trump bankrupts, if and when
6:53
the American economy, will this make him more extreme or withheld, basically, from our forces
7:00
And may I also add, Simon, could the compensation paid to normal American citizens actually bankrupt
7:08
the American economy as well. What do you mean by compensation, Steve? Are you talking about Social Security
7:14
No, I mean, in general, like basically all these crimes being committed to American citizens
7:19
by the American government have to bankrupt the... Oh, I see what you mean
7:23
in terms of legal claims against Donald Trump's administration for things like the ICE roundups
7:28
and the Border Patrol. Look I mean we talking at the end of what was last week I think when the US economy the Treasury officially disclosed that the national debt had risen above trillion
7:40
And Martin, that is a monumental problem hanging over the American economy, isn't it
7:47
It absolutely is. And one thing in terms of paying back that is going to hurt the American economy is the tariffs that Trump has collected, which has now been ruled illegal
7:58
and a lot of those are going to have to be paid back. That could damage the US economy
8:03
You have to look at the scale of things because the US economy is worth an estimated $32 trillion
8:10
And the only economy that comes close to that is the European Union has a combined economy worth $30 trillion
8:17
And if you compare that to Russia, since we're talking about Russia, Russia's economy is estimated to be worth $7 trillion
8:24
So there's a massive difference between the $30 trillion, $32 trillion and Russia's rather puny 7 trillion
8:31
So we're all very afraid of Russia. You know, it's kind of a little bit of a sort of an act that Putin's got
8:38
You know, he convinces us that he's all-powerful, that he's dangerous, that he's threatening
8:43
Their economy isn't that strong and it's getting worse. Question for both of you
8:47
That eminence grise of international politics, which I follow very closely, Steve Bannon
8:54
who's also said once you take power, never let it go, by any means, fair or foul
9:04
He's also said and written about sometimes this idea of three phases, three spheres of influence
9:14
North America, South America under the Trump regime. You've got Putin, which seems to include Europe, and there is power, and in the Far East, Xi of China
9:32
This arrangement might give some clue to Trump's behaviour. But what do you think, or do you subscribe then, to the idea of three spheres of influence
9:45
Jeff, great question. Martin, three spheres of influence, the US, China and Russia
9:50
Are we living in a tripolar world? I think we're not, because, you know, you've got to compare the power and influence of those three
9:59
China, United States, absolutely proper world powers. Russia, despite all its bluster, despite all its military aggression, not on the same scale
10:09
EU may be close, but just on Steve Bannon and, you know, the quote that you said there about
10:16
once you've got power, never let it go. He's had some great quotes. He's talking about Trump's iron fist
10:22
And the iron fist is something we normally associate with a man ruling the Kremlin
10:26
And Steve Bannon has said that Trump has turned the US Congress into the Russian Duma
10:33
In other words, a rubber stamp for the dick taps that come from the president. And I think that's a really good characterization
10:38
of what's been going on. One thing I wanted to pick up on, Martin, you were sort of saying that the finger of blame
10:43
points directly at Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin for the two things
10:47
for the things they have respectively done to their countries. But it's also true that the finger of blame
10:53
has to be pointed at a whole host of sycophants who have willingly pledged fealty to both of them
11:02
And there's a question that's come in on text from John in Hartlepool. And he says, very kindly
11:07
that he's excluding me from this question entirely. But he wants to know
11:11
how did Trump convince so many journalists in mainstream media outlets that he wasn't a crook
11:19
and we wouldn't see this time outright rampant corruption, militarism and nationalism
11:27
And you could broaden that out, if you like, by also talking about how Vladimir Putin
11:33
co-opted the press, which when he took over from Boris Yeltsin, you know, there was a vibrant press
11:41
comparatively in Moscow at the time, he also very, very successfully and quite brutally co-opted the media
11:51
He did, Simon. And the time you and I were in Moscow was the time when Russia was experimenting
11:56
with sort of liberalisation, freedom of speech, proper political opposition parties and a free media
12:03
And Putin, when he came to power, decided that actually that wasn't really going to be
12:10
very helpful for him. And in 2000, he had a terrible debacle when the Kursk submarines sank and the national media piled into him and attacked him
12:19
And that was the moment when he decided he was going to bring the press to heel
12:25
He was very brutal about it. Journalists were arrested. Some of them were murdered
12:30
And so he made no bones about it. There is no proper free press left in Russia today
12:37
The one opposition newspaper, Novaya Garcieta, is being hounded. It's still there, but a very reduced operation is being hounded and it's really in trouble
12:47
Trump has been absolutely on the front foot attacking what he calls the legacy media
12:54
I'm not sure that he convinced many people at the New York Times or ABC or NBC or the Washington Post that he wasn't a crook, but he managed to convince enough voters
13:04
And just one point, just to finish off on this, when you and I were in Moscow, it looked like Russia wanted to transform itself from a thousand years of autocracy to something resembling a Western-style free, liberal, market-based country, a system, a proper market economy with proper elections
13:26
how ironic that now 30 years later we're seeing the opposite happen it's not russia coming into
13:34
the western camp it's trump trying to move uh america from being the world's greatest leading
13:41
democracy into something that vladimir putin would recognize this centralized personalized autocracy and with regard to the changes that we've seen in the media in both countries it's
13:53
also related to the way in which both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have very successfully
14:00
co-opted the business elites in their respective nations. Absolutely. And the relationship between Putin and the oligarchs and Trump and the American
14:11
oligarchs, Elon Musk, the tech bros and all that comes with that, has been absolutely central to
14:18
their grip on power. Putin came to power. He had these difficult oligarchs, Boris Berezovsky
14:25
Rangon Abramovich, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Mikhail Kuczynski, Vladimir Kuczynski. And he essentially said, you come on board, you support me, and if you don't, you're for the high jump. A lot of them
14:37
ended up dead, in exile, or with their empires taken away from them. And the money from that
14:43
has gone into Putin's coffers. Trump has been a bit more sort of subtle about it
14:48
but he has a similar relationship with America's billionaires, most of whom maybe in the past may have been sort of Democratic-leaning
14:58
Democrat with a capital D, but now are so on board with Trump
15:03
that he can essentially call on them to fund him for whatever he wants to do It seems clear that the China pact to take over the world economy
15:18
is driving Russia into a very perilous position. I'm not sure I agree entirely that the premise of your book is correct
15:30
Mr. Trump is not too trusted. In fact, I lived in America 40 years, and I didn't vote for the guy twice
15:39
I'm registered Democrat, so that's not going to happen. But the recent meeting of the CIA director you alluded to where Mr. Trump said publicly that Mr. Putin had told him that he would not attack NATO
15:53
Is that not nearly reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain's visit to Mr Hitler in the 30s
16:03
Very interesting question. Could it have the same consequences? Very interesting question, John
16:08
Martin, your take. Great question. Are we at Munich all over again
16:14
Are we appeasing an aggressor? Are we going to give him free reign
16:19
It's an interesting question because Putin has been emboldened by the way that Trump has weakened NATO
16:27
NATO's deterrent power has always been based on projecting an image of unity and resolve and determination
16:35
And under Trump, that has been maybe not completely destroyed, but it's certainly been downgraded
16:41
Fair enough, he wanted the NATO members to pay more towards the budget. Absolutely right for Trump to demand that
16:47
NATO is trying to do that, albeit slowly. But when Trump says in a speech to his MAGA supporters
16:57
if a NATO member didn't pay its dues, as he called it
17:02
would I support them if they were invaded by Russia? His answer was, I would absolutely not support them
17:08
In fact, I'd encourage Mr. Putin to do whatever he wanted to do to them
17:12
And if you're Vladimir Putin sitting in the Kremlin, that to me sounds pretty much like a green light from Trump to expand his aggression beyond Ukraine
17:21
maybe not into the NATO countries but into those sort of Moldova and countries which are not NATO
17:28
members it sounds to me like an encouragement so if we are back in Munich and Neville Chamberlain
17:33
we're kind of making a rod for our own back. Can you talk a little bit Martin about the respective
17:39
relationships with their militaries that these two men have. I mean, Vladimir Putin particularly
17:47
hundreds of thousands of Russian troops have perished in Ukraine in the meat grinder
17:53
There's no indication of that stopping. You and I will both remember having been in Moscow
17:58
during the Chechnya campaign, the first Chechen war, then the second one. And
18:04
you know, the protests that took place at the time from the Mother's Committee, whose dead sons
18:11
were returning in body bags to Moscow, which really constrained Putin for a while, certainly
18:16
with regard to the first Chechen war. None of that's happening, or if it is happening
18:22
we're certainly not hearing about it in Russia. How's Vladimir Putin got away with that? And how
18:27
do you compare and contrast his relationship with the Russian army with Donald Trump's relationship
18:33
with a military that he, via Pete Hegseth, has also purged. Yes, so just on the specific point of the mothers of servicemen
18:44
that organisation still exists, but its influence has been completely constrained. As you say, during the Chechen War, it was a very powerful force
18:53
because it's very hard to argue with a mother whose son has died in the service of the motherland
19:00
And now we're seeing hundreds of thousands of young Russian men, not their fault that the war is happening at all
19:07
You know, they're sort of victims in as much as anybody is, dying in Ukraine
19:13
And Putin, you would have thought, might feel a little bit worried that a public sentiment will turn against him
19:20
It has to be said that Russia has expended human lives with abandon throughout its history in the Second World War, in Afghanistan, in Chechnya, and now in Ukraine
19:34
But Putin has taken a precaution. He's created a separate military force, separate from the regular army, called Russ Guardia, the Russian Guard, which is a sort of Praetorian Guard which is answerable only to him
19:46
And there's an estimate that it has 340,000 members of this personal guard that Putin has created
19:55
And you can only draw one conclusion from that, can't you? That he's absolutely terrified that the Russian population may turn against him and he needs this private army to defend him
20:07
Trump isn't anywhere near that in America yet. His relationship with the military has been difficult
20:12
Pete Hegseth has hollowed out generals, admirals, senior bureaucrats. So you do worry about the fragility of the American forces
20:23
But I don't think there's any suggestion that the US army would turn against the president at this stage
20:28
And do you think that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are in similar positions
20:33
in that both men need to find off-ramps from conflicts that they began
20:38
and neither of them appears able to find one. Absolutely, 100%. And this is the sort of the danger of being a despot
20:49
because you are surrounded, as you said, by enablers and yes-men who echo back your views
20:55
so you come to believe that you are infallible. So if you're Putin and you've had a good war in Chechnya
21:01
you've defeated the Chechen rebels, you had a good war in Georgia
21:05
you had a good annexation of Crimea, you kind of think you're sort of indomitable
21:11
You absolutely think, I'll invade Ukraine and the same thing will happen again
21:15
And that's a function of not having proper objective advice. I think similar with Trump, he did very well in Venezuela
21:22
He decapitated the Maduro regime. And that's led him, because he doesn't have people saying to him
21:29
Mr. President, think about it before you do anything. It's led him into this terrible situation that he's now in Iran
21:36
Absolutely. And of course, there are these suggestions that one of the issues that John
21:40
Ratcliffe wanted to raise with his opposite number, the head of the FSB in Moscow this week
21:44
was the fact that America believes that no one's got the courage to tell Vladimir Putin the truth
21:50
about what's taking place in Ukraine. Question from Shuvik in Eltham. And I'm really interested
21:56
in this question. He asks, what are we doing to help the legitimate Russian opposition to defeat
22:04
Putin? And again, you and I can both cast our minds back to an earlier era, the Soviet era
22:11
and certainly the Boris Yeltsin era, when the UK and the US and other Western nations did an
22:20
enormous amount to maintain ties with, during the Soviet era, dissidents, and during Boris Yeltsin's
22:28
time in office, the Russian opposition. What are we doing, if anything, these days
22:35
This is so sad Simon because that situation that you and I remember from those years when there was a proper opposition even with all the repressive measures that the Soviet Union and then the early Russian government put in place
22:49
there was an opposition living underground. Putin has been so repressive and so targeted against demonstrators
22:57
that opposition in Russia now has been silenced. There is an opposition abroad
23:04
For instance, Mikhail Khodorkovsky lives in London. I know him quite well
23:08
He's still funding opposition radio stations who now are based outside of Russia
23:14
Inside of Russia, very hard to estimate what people really think, because the polls are all there
23:20
They all say that, you know, 90 percent support the war. They support Putin. But if you're a Russian and you're walking down Gorky Street in Moscow and an official looking man with a clipboard comes along and says, do you support President Putin
23:32
You're likely to say yes. One thing that has remained, which is something that's been in Russia in Soviet years and now is humour
23:40
And there's a Russian joke which sort of captures what Russians might really be thinking, even though they're not allowed to say it
23:47
And it's a joke about two secret service men, two FSB men who are having a beer in the Lubyanka canteen after work
23:54
And Ivan leans over to Dmitry and he says, tell me, Dmitry, what do you really think about that Vladimir Putin
24:00
and Dimitri says the same as you and Ivan says in that case it's my duty to arrest you
24:07
Absolutely. Black humour. Let's go to Mill Hill. Sergio is there. Afternoon, evening. Sergio
24:13
what would you like to ask Martin Sixsmith? Hello, good evening Simon. Before anything
24:20
thank you for your presenting the news without bias and with the sincerity. It is marvellous on
24:25
these days. Well that's very nice of you Sergio. I think there are others that might disagree with
24:28
you but i appreciate you voicing that sentiment what's your question for martin my question for
24:35
martin is uh would not be the case that uh not now but a while ago putin has come to trump somehow
24:44
and presented him with this kind of playbook and say listen i have everything you need to become
24:51
the king of america and what happens is every time that trump feels the necessity he runs for
24:58
his tutor to be asked for some questions either he sent someone or either he even planned a meeting
25:04
on alaska so could not be something like this behind a fascinating question sergio that alaska
25:11
summit was absolutely something else uh but sergio is basically arguing uh has putin given trump
25:19
a literal playbook for what to do in power i think both men are very transactional um trump
25:27
Trump is always looking for doing the deal. And Putin has kind of, he's a man who reads the room quite well
25:35
He's read how Trump works and he's played the game that he thinks Trump wants him to play
25:42
So that meeting in Alaska looked like it was going to cement this relationship between Moscow and Washington
25:48
Putin was saying, of course, you know, you come on our side, we'll get rid of the Ukrainians
25:52
and the deals that you can do in Russia, the massive natural resources you can exploit in Russia are all there
26:02
They're going to be at your disposal. But I think Putin is kind of smart
26:07
You know, he's an FSB man. He's had this sort of mask the whole time he's been in power
26:12
Nobody can read him. They call him the moth, the man without a face. And what he has done really well is flatter Trump
26:18
He's read Trump's psychology. He's a man who likes to be flattered
26:22
his amount of likes to be praised. So he sent him this marvellous portrait of Trump
26:27
just after he'd been nearly assassinated by an assassin's bullet with blood streaming from his ear
26:34
And Putin and Steve Witkoff said, this is marvellous. It's a fantastic birthday present
26:38
It's very beautiful. So to us on the outside, that looks not only transactional
26:42
but very naive. Whereas for Putin, I think that kind of works with Trump
26:47
They're also both pretty into the cult of the personality. they absolutely are i mean uh trump yeah putin you see sort of walking down these sort of gilded
26:57
halls on red carpets and trumpeters are blowing the you know he's portrayed in school rooms it's
27:03
kind of going back to the days of stalin trump you know don't get me started what has he how many
27:09
things has he renamed after himself um in airports kennedy center he tried um i'm surprised that you
27:16
know Lake Ontario hasn't become Lake Trump. Well I meant to mention this on American Week actually
27:20
but he has also thrown up in the last few days the idea that he may even consider demolishing
27:27
the Kennedy Centre if he isn't allowed to go ahead with the refurbishment plan that he's got
27:33
and of course they've now taken his name off it. Ruth in Watford has texted a very timely question
27:38
the USA surely has a better chance of democracy because of the midterms and the next election in
27:46
November 2028, we presume, over Putin's Russia. I mean, she's got a point, hasn't she
27:53
Absolutely, 100%. So in the book, I'm not saying that Russia and America are at the same point
27:58
in this evolving political process. What I'm saying is that Putin is much further down the
28:03
road. He's absolutely consolidated his personal hold on power. He's knocked down all the democratic
28:09
safeguards which were there. And, you know, unless he drops dead, or there's a coup
28:13
or there's something unexpected happen, he has consolidated that path. Trump is moving towards that
28:20
And, you know, there are milestones coming. There's the November midterms this year
28:25
If the Democrats can swing control of Congress or be part of Congress
28:30
then that opens the way for investigations into what Trump has done
28:35
investigations into the corruption of the regime. So things could change. I noticed you said the 2028 election, if it happens
28:42
I mean, at the moment, it is going to happen. And it would take a real sort of coup by Trump and by the Republican-leaning Supreme Court to stop that happening
28:53
I'd be very surprised if things got that far. As the great Christopher Hitchens always used to say when you asked him how he was doing
29:01
whatever time of day it was, he would respond, it's a little too early to tell. I want to ask you a question that various people have couched in various different ways
29:09
But you talked about the possibility of Trump dropping dead. What happens, I mean, these are both ageing men
29:15
without any obvious succession. What happens if we wake up one day and discover
29:21
that they've both simply disappeared from the scene? Well, one facet of despots is that they don't like to name successors
29:28
because then they become a threat, they become an arrival. We know formally what would happen if either of them dropped dead
29:34
If Trump dropped dead, it would be J.D. Vance, who became the president. if Putin dropped dead it would be the prime minister a man whose name many people don't know
29:44
he would become the president but that's not a long-term solution and Putin has been very careful
29:51
to keep playing off all the barons around him all these siloviki the strongmen that's around him
29:57
against each other and he's tied them into himself by being very generous to them financially and
30:04
making them beholden to him. He doesn't have a successor. I don't think he's even thinking about
30:10
who his successor would be. And as we said earlier, he could stand for another election
30:15
another six years, he could be president into his 80s
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