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HS2 trains will run slower than planned to save money, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is set to announce. A major review to be published following the announcement is expected to find that 'gold plating' HS2, including by focusing on achieving the 'highest possible speeds', is among the faults that contributed to the project’s woes. James O'Brien and LBC callers react. 00:00 James O’Brien reacts 06:46 Caller Jason argues that the problem lies with the budget 12:19 A listener says delays come from poor planning 13:08 Listener Will thinks the issue isn’t unique to the UK 13:50 Caller Gareth tells James the HS2 developers are losing supplies 18:40 Caller Neil blames short-termism and weak infrastructure Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #jamesobrien #hs2 #uknews #ukpolitics #debate #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
So you probably know that they're about to announce, or today they will announce, the latest disaster in the HS2 saga
0:08
And remember, you don't have to agree with this ysis, but it is widely believed that the final figure will be roughly three times the original estimate
0:17
which was only set in 2011. It was set 15 years ago. I know what you're thinking. Ah, it's Osborne's razor again
0:24
But it wasn't like 100 years ago or 50 years ago. It was 15 years ago
0:28
and that is only for the bit that has survived, the 100 miles connecting London and Birmingham
0:35
It was supposed to go to Leeds and to Manchester and then fork off, if you pardon my French
0:40
into the eastern and western legs once it got north of Birmingham but none of that's happening now
0:46
It's been scaled back a bunch of times. It's probably going to be announced by Heidi Alexander today
0:50
that it is being scaled back or pushed back again. The timetable might see the first train run in about 2035 at the moment
0:59
They're going to announce that they'll probably slow it down, which is fine
1:04
because it was never about making the journeys shorter, really. It was all about increasing the capacity
1:09
although you could be forgiven for not knowing that from the way it's been covered by many, many, many people
1:15
The thing that can't be disputed is the tripling, give or take, of the original cost
1:22
So there are two abiding stories here, right? Number one, it's taken three times
1:30
it's cost three times more than it should have done, right? And number two, it's taken God knows how much longer
1:37
than was originally estimated. Now, I'm a naive fool, as you know
1:44
I can't quite believe that the answer to this question is they're all really bad at their jobs
1:50
It's possible that that is the answer, but my experience with the construction industry
1:55
is confined, as I've told you many times, to two weeks on a building site in North Yorkshire in 1988
2:01
Spoiler alert, I wasn't very good at it anyway. So I look at this, I think, who did the sums
2:06
Who did the calculations? Is it a modern malaise? No, it's not
2:10
because if it was Australia, it would be taking, you know, a fraction, a relatively big fraction
2:15
but a fraction nonetheless of the time. If it was other European countries that we used to look down our noses at
2:22
Or some people did. I never really went in for that sort of thing
2:25
but I remember going on holiday to Spain as a child and being astonished by the state of the roads
2:32
Like they were barely sort of tarmacked in places on quite big routes towards the Pyrenees
2:39
And now, continental Europe has, I would argue, a better record of delivering on infrastructure than we do
2:45
I would argue that, because that's going to be part of the question that I'm about to ask you
2:51
What's your favourite explanation for why HS2 has taken so much longer
2:56
and cost so much more than it was supposed to? What's your favourite explanation
3:01
What is your explanation? That's what I mean by you knowing probably a lot more about this than I do
3:08
Why? Why? Why here? Why so bad? Why here? Why now? Why here? Why now
3:15
Why here? Why now? It's almost a tune, that, isn't it, Keith? I don't know
3:21
But I don't believe it can be, it can't be one answer, can it? You can't just go, Elf and Safety
3:26
You can't just go, everyone's really bad at them. I don't think you can until you tell me otherwise
3:31
They're just really bad at their jobs. Political leadership is obviously a huge part of it
3:36
And given that this dates back to 2011, we can confidently state that there wasn't any political leadership
3:41
But we've had about 463 different governments since then, all but one of them Tory
3:46
and absolutely nothing has improved. Now, it's Labour's turn to make announcements of it
3:50
Oh, it's going to take longer and it's going to cost more. So what is it? Could it even be corruption
3:57
Could that be a thing? Don't libel anybody, because it's me that gets into trouble, not you. But you look now at people taking money off foreign billionaires
4:05
and presidents in the United States of America, lining their own nests, and you sort of think
4:10
well, maybe I am a bit of a sweet summer child, sitting here thinking that corruption and kickbacks
4:15
are just exceptions to the rule. I don't know. But I know that it is extraordinary
4:22
that in the space of, what, 2026, 1927, in the space of 150 years
4:28
we've probably gone from being the best in the world at building stuff to being among the worst
4:35
That's a little bit of tabloid exaggeration, possibly, at both ends of the timescale
4:39
More so probably at this end than that end. Because in the days of Brunel, we probably were the best in the world, right
4:47
And now we are going to be among comparable economies on delivery times and budgeting
4:53
we're probably going to be among the worst among the worst so just tell me why
5:00
and the reason I began this morning by pointing out that you might not think of yourself as someone who rings into the programme
5:06
habitually or naturally and you're sitting there now going, oh this is actually my neck of the woods
5:13
Do you know what? I actually know what I'm talking about. Yeah. I don't ring radio
5:19
I want to hear voices I haven't heard before. I want to hear answers I haven't heard before on this
5:25
I want to get under the bonnet, if you like, of Britain, building in Britain today
5:29
and just try to work out why it's such an absolute mess
5:35
That's my ysis, all right? I may be getting all sorts of things wrong
5:39
so you're also welcome and encouraged to ring in and tell me to wind my neck
5:43
and things aren't quite that bad. You might feel a bit protective a bit loyal about your industry Alright the Aussies do it quicker but what you don understand is A B C D E It not the fault of the fellas in the hard hats down on the sites or the ladies in the hard hats down on the sites doing the shift and it probably not their boss fault or
5:59
even their boss's fault. So whose fault is it? Whose fault is it? 0345 6060 973. Why does
6:10
it cost so much, more than they originally budgeted? That's the crucial bit
6:17
And why does it take so much longer than they originally estimated? If they were building an extension on your house
6:23
and they were bringing it in on the same parameters as HS2
6:27
you'd have Matt Allwright singing your story from the Sofa on the One show by the
6:32
end of Play on Tuesday, which is, of course, today. 10.22 is the time
6:38
0345 6060 973. is the number. What, why and wherefore is the question
6:46
Jason is in Budely, a place I know well. Jason, what have you got? Hi, James. Long time listener
6:52
first time caller. Welcome aboard. Hopefully tick one box. So I think perhaps a changing
6:58
question would be... Oh, everyone's a bloody critic. Honestly, I've barely started, man
7:03
No, the negativity comes from the budget being wrong in the first place. Yes, it does. If you kind of
7:09
Cast your mind back to, what, 2008, 2009, when Department for Transport kind of got this rolling
7:17
Do you think they would have had a positive answer from Treasury if they'd said $150 billion and it's going to take 30 years
7:24
So to get it greenlit, they have to tell porkies about the price
7:29
Now, whether it's cynical or naivety, you could probably have an argument there, couldn't you
7:33
Because I would imagine that DFT folk aren't fully, you know, The higher levels aren't really on the detail
7:41
But it was a political decision to get it through with the Treasury
7:46
The industry, I think, knew full well, based on history and the likes of the Docklands Light Rail and the Jubilee Extension
7:55
that it was likely to go over budget. The extremity is pretty amazing, isn't it, actually
8:01
from 30 to whatever it's going to be today. Yes, three times. Yeah, but essentially, it's that political decision earlier
8:08
or the sponsored decision on smaller projects, that they want to get the project through
8:13
All right, why would that be peculiar to this country? So, I'm not sure it is entirely
8:18
Okay, do you work in the sector? I do, yeah, yeah, yeah. I manage a big team of project delivery managers, so..
8:24
Did you have anything to do with the flood barriers? No, but I know I have a little story about that
8:29
Go on, then. Jason, you're on the right show. Yeah, well, interestingly, so I follow the industry a lot
8:37
And obviously, I live in Bewley. I watch that project. I remember when Boris came
8:42
And this is, again, the political start here. He came and went, this is terrible. We're going to get it sorted
8:47
The Environment Agency knew about the issue a long time before. Of course they did
8:51
But hadn't scoped it out, hadn't looked at all the constraints. And Boris announced it was going to be sorted
8:57
Their original budget was $6 million. It had ballooned to 8 million before they even started on site
9:03
because of the heritage constraints, the utilities that... I mean, for people who don't know Beaudley
9:09
there are proper heritage constraints. It's a beautiful Georgian market town, and the bridge that essentially spans the river
9:16
that needs the flood barriers is pretty much single lane, isn't it, really
9:20
It is. Yeah, so, you know, there was a lot going on there. So it's gone up by 2 million before they've even stuck a spade in the ground
9:27
By the time they finished, it was ten and a half. From six? From six
9:31
Yeah, there it is. But had we taken the time, the Royal We, the Environment Agency
9:36
took their time, they would have known about the constraints and designed them in and costed it properly
9:41
before announcing the budget. So you've got a politician on the phone going
9:45
come on, come on, we want to get a press release out, or a politician's people are on the phone. We've got to get a press release out
9:50
and we've got to get it greenlit and then you've got someone else on the phone saying we can't afford that. So, all right, we'll just knock a nought off it
9:55
So there's a sort of weird conference of compromise going on. And at the end of it, you just get an entirely unrealistic quote
10:03
Yep, pretty much, pretty much. Yeah, and it's not... Project managers are often good at trying to cap that
10:11
But, you know, that's what I do with my team. We've got costs that come in for its scope
10:15
But we have that cynicism of picking it to bits before we kind of, you know, embark on the project
10:20
to make sure we're clear of the... Yeah, fair enough. But again, that doesn't answer the question of why it takes so much longer
10:28
compared to other countries that will have similar political pressures and political tensions
10:32
But you're not going to take a broad and generalised stereotyping critique of your industry
10:39
You're saying you're all bad at it or you're all lazy or you're all a bit rubbish or you're all on the take
10:43
because that obviously wouldn't be fair or true. No, and comparing us to other countries is like comparing apples and pears
10:49
Is it though? It is. Why? Yes. So from a project construction perspective, you know, we've got less space
10:56
We've got more heritage constraints. We have more wildlife constraints as well because we have less wildlife
11:04
It's more important. And then we have people. We got more people in the way
11:08
NIMBYs. So, well, HS2 is a great one, isn't it? They were buying up everything, weren't they
11:14
They were buying up garden and they wanted to go through hills when they should have gone over them because people didn't want trains spoiling their view or making noise
11:22
And that wouldn't apply if you were building a railway across the outback or an underpopulated part of America, would it
11:29
Exactly. Well, Spain, they've got one of the largest high-speed networks, but you look where it is, and it connects big city to big city
11:36
We've got a lot in between. Whereas we got quite a lot in between Yeah in America Not in places like Budely Yeah well exactly but America don have the heritage that we have That a really interesting answer because you know people might be able to get a little bit dismissive
11:51
with regards to some of the wildlife constraints, and there was that famous case, wasn't there, of the Bat Tunnel with HS2
11:57
which did seem to have swung too far in one way. But the idea of blowing up, you know, heritage
12:04
blowing, I'm trying to think what the nearest one to you is, blowing up Whitley Court or something like that
12:08
Yeah, exactly, yeah, yeah. And of course you've got the Seven Valley Railway on your doorstep
12:12
which is a reminder of how things used to be done. And that, Jason, is a fascinating call
12:16
and a perfect start to this conversation. Thank you. Don't say my name, please, James
12:21
He says, I'm an ecologist working on a large infrastructure project. We have environmental laws which often get blamed for holding up projects
12:28
but in reality it's poor planning at senior levels. At the moment, this project is wanting to clear a whole lot of vegetation
12:35
and we've had to tell them they can't for a large majority of the space due to nesting birds
12:41
This could now delay the project by six months and ecologists stroke wildlife laws will get the blame
12:47
In reality, they should have organised vegetation clearance for December when 99% of the birds aren't nesting and there would have been zero delays
12:55
You see what I mean about a tapestry of anecdotes? That's just really interesting
13:00
And some more good news, well, if you're coming at this as I tend to
13:04
from a sort of strangely patriotic position. I'm afraid, says Will, that the last caller wasn't quite accurate
13:11
For once, this is not a uniquely British phenomenon. It's a malaise across Europe
13:16
The Rijksmuseum renovation in Amsterdam, five years late, nearly twice its original budget
13:21
Oh, Lordy, you've dropped this one on me. The Hamburg... Wait there a second
13:26
Elbphilharmonie. Elbphilharmonie. Philharmonie? Philharmonic orchestra. Germany's iconic concert hall, where the cost has increased by nearly tenfold
13:37
And then in Finland, you have the Oki Luoto 3 nuclear power plant
13:41
which is coming in at the moment about a decade late. So that's quite comforting, in a way
13:47
if you were worrying about this being a peculiarly British disease. Gareth's on Mercy Island. Gareth, what would you like to say
13:53
Good one, James. Great show, as always. Very kind. I was compelled to phone in
13:59
And ironically, I'm currently driving to a rail site as part of my job
14:07
So I've worked for the last 12, 13 years for a company
14:13
I won't name a company, but we've supplied materials into the water rail industry
14:21
and in the last two years I have supplied the exact same order three times
14:29
to the exact same HS2 site because each time the deliveries arrive they have lost
14:36
it. No. Yeah honestly James this is again How big is it physically without giving away
14:44
too much of identifying details in terms of Monetary? No. No, like double-decker buses or something like that
14:52
How big is it? Oh, the site? Yeah. No, the delivery, the thing you dropped off
14:57
Oh, sorry. Oh, it's 43 tonnes of material each time. 43 tonnes
15:03
It's an entire lorry that has to be unloaded on site with a crane
15:09
Well, lose is a bit of a euphemism, isn't it? Oh, no, no, no, no. I have had, being in the industry so long
15:15
you sort of get to quite good working relationships with contacts and managers on site
15:19
and I have physically had them ring me up and go, Gareth, I won't use the language they use
15:24
but Gareth, we have lost the order. Can you take my company card details
15:32
and can you do another 25 grand and can you send it out again
15:37
We've lost it. Lost it. How do you think they can lose something so enormous, mate
15:42
Because there's, again, being on these sites and sitting in... It'd be put down somewhere over there
15:49
and that he's gone off on another job. And another contractor's wanted to nick a little bit of it for his job
15:55
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's got damaged and we've sent some to another site
15:59
but we've not told anyone. I mean, to be honest, I opened the programme today
16:03
by telling the story of a lost bridge. They managed to lose a bridge in Paddington Basin
16:08
an Isambard Kingdom Brunel Bridge. They're just built over it. So, I mean, anything can happen
16:12
No, I mean, I've sat, genuinely, I've sat in meetings with 20 project managers, site managers, architects, estimators
16:25
and at the end of the meeting, no one still knows what they're doing
16:31
No one's any further ahead. It's just a massive confusion, James. Too big
16:38
There seems to be more senior managers involved than anything else. Yeah, tell me about it
16:43
So I just think my, in the scheme of things, my drop in the ocean of 75 grand..
16:51
Yeah, of course. That's probably going to be multiplied hundreds of times
16:56
by other companies. And is there any surprise it's billions over budget
17:01
Because the wastage is phenomenal. Because nobody's ass is on the line, to point a phrase
17:08
Has it got, over the 15 years you've been doing it, have things got better, worse, or stayed roughly the same
17:13
Probably slightly worse. Right. Because I think larger projects are now scrutinised more
17:22
as to where and what they're spending money on. Yeah. But in turn, that then just makes things more complicated
17:30
Projects then take longer We end up in situations where we tender for something It takes two years to get down the line So it is yeah so you and Jason are listening to this
17:42
and tracking the story and following the budget and the time scale
17:48
and feeling supremely unsurprised by it. Yeah, I mean, because what generally happens is
17:54
for example, you know, Project X is tendered for today in two years time when it comes to fruition
18:00
the price of everything has increased, but because it's increased, you've then got to go back to square one
18:07
and start the tender process all over again. Oh, God. It's a nightmare, James
18:13
It's an absolute minefield. Everything takes forever. And do you have any way of comparing with other countries
18:22
Do we know whether we suffer particularly on this front or whether or not it is a sort of international malaise
18:28
If I'm honest on that front, I haven't. I've never done any work
18:32
outside of the UK, so yeah, pass on that one. Fair enough
18:36
Other people will be qualified, of course, to contribute those answers. Gary, thank you
18:40
Neil's in Watford. Neil, what do you reckon? Good morning. Thank you for taking my call
18:44
You're very welcome. You sound very business-like. It's just sat here waiting to go on the show
18:50
Did you just adjust your tie before you started talking then, Neil? Not quite
18:54
Not quite. Carry on. What do you want to say? I was saying about infrastructure
18:58
and cost overruns. because I believe we don't plan long term for putting things correctly in place
19:09
I mean, you gave the example of Ismbar Kingdom and Brunel's Bridge fitting together as a jigsaw puzzle
19:15
Infrastructure is much the same. I mean, I think renewables is the case in point
19:21
Yes, we want wind farms. We want solar panels. We want to get rid of fossil-based fuels
19:28
but we've got to do it in a logical way which means you've got to put the infrastructure in place first
19:35
So what's the point of building a wind farm that you can't connect to the grid
19:40
It means you're paid... Does that happen though? Or is that just an extreme example
19:45
No, I don't think it's an extreme example. If you look at the national grid and the accounts
19:50
and we're spending in excess of £1 billion every year to energy producers, not to produce electricity
19:58
because we can't use it, which then means we've got to turn the gas..
20:01
Because they put the cart before the horse. That's right. We then have to turn the gas power stations on
20:09
which means we all pay much more money than we need to. So we've got a lot of building work going on
20:14
in the building at the moment, right? The building I'm currently in. And they're doing an incredible job
20:20
and they're very patient with some of my very geeky questions, particularly the lift engineers
20:25
But they've just knocked down a wall. a temporary wall and on the other side of it
20:30
I noticed that they've already put up some of the new branding some of the new artwork
20:35
you know, the graphics and the building work hasn't finished and I found myself thinking
20:40
I bet they have to do that again literally, this is 48 minutes ago
20:44
as I was walking towards the studio I just remember thinking I bet they have to do that again
20:48
because that's gone up a bit soon I reckon it's beautiful but it's going to get dirty
20:53
or it's going to get chipped or they're going to be carrying a massive air conditioning unit past
20:57
and a bit of the plaster's going to get... That's what you're talking about. On a tiny scale, that's what you're talking about
21:03
Somebody somewhere should probably have said, let's not put that artwork up
21:07
Let's do that last. When everything else is finished, we'll put up all the fancy graphics
21:12
Yeah, I mean... Because they might have to pay for it twice. I think a quick case in point is the Shetland Islands
21:18
Go on. The wind farms... You're obsessed with bloody wind farms, Neil
21:23
Give me something else. Give me some other content. It's a question of your previous things about..
21:32
You just mentioned it, you know, clearing vegetation. I'm going to do it in March
21:36
Why not have got the horse before the cart and done it in December
21:40
But is this not what project managers are supposed to do? Or are they too atomised
21:45
Is that they're in charge of their little bit? Look, my job is to get the posters on the wall, mate
21:49
I don't care about people carrying air conditioning units. You said it correctly
21:53
It's a lack of joined-up thinking. Everybody wants to do their own little bit
21:57
and there's no overall top-level political control saying, look, we have to have consensus on certain infrastructure projects
22:06
between all parties. Let's agree to that, and let's get on with it
22:10
rather than things changing every time there's a general election. Yeah, that can't help
22:15
I mean, albeit that the last few have delivered the same party that was in before
22:19
It's a slightly different-flavoured government. And, of course, don't forget, I mean, everybody's messaging me about their own favourite projects
22:26
The Colne, what is it, the Colne Valley Viaduct out at some Uxbridge Way
22:32
Absolutely beautiful bit of engineering, which is HS2 related. And then, of course, at the other end of the scale, you've got how much did we spend on that bridge
22:39
The garden bridge that Boris Johnson was going to build across the River Thames. Millions of pounds spent on that, including a fat slice of public money without a single brick being laid
22:47
without a single, can I say sod? Without a single sod being turned
22:53
Seriously. So what we don't know is how peculiarly or how peculiar to Britain it may be
22:59
albeit that there are some considerations in this country that simply apply in ways that they wouldn't in other countries
23:04
It's not a question of choice. It is not a question of choice to be living in a country
23:10
that is absolutely dripping with heritage, history and tradition. So you want to build, and of course
23:16
which is a relatively small landmass for the population, which, of course, is a consequence in large part
23:23
of all the industrial and commercial success that we were having 150 years ago
23:27
when we were building all this stuff
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