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China's leader Xi Jinping has rolled out the red carpet for Donald Trump on the first day of the US president's visit to Beijing
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with the aim of resetting ties after the tariff wars and derogatory remarks
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But today, Trump showered his counterpart with praise ahead of crunch talks tomorrow
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I was joined a little bit earlier by Donald Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton
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and we began by talking about the Iran war. I asked where he thought Trump had got to in terms of trying to declare peace
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He desperately wants to do that. He wants out of this problem. He didn't think it through
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I could spend a long time telling you what I think he's done wrong on it. But it's very clear he wants to end it
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On the other hand, he also knows if he makes a bad deal or declares victory on a premise that's laughably untrue, like it doesn't matter who controls the straight or four moves
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He can't do that either. So he's caught between two very hard choices, and I think he's very frustrated at the moment
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I don't think he has a plan. It seems to me as if the Strait of Hormuz is going to carry on being restricted
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if not completely closed, for quite a long time. What's the effect on the American public in terms of energy prices
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Because it's going to be like that, but more so for us. I don't agree with the proposition that we can't open the Strait
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I think we can, and I think we should. I think it important not to allow Iran to get this victory without cost And I think if we could open the strait keep the blockade on Iran but open the strait for Arab oil to come out we would have a significant positive impact
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on the world economy. Now, whether Trump's going to do that or not, I don't know. I don't underestimate how difficult it is, but I think it's necessary to do. In the United States
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there's now, in addition to the taco trade, Trump always chickens out. Now they're engaged in what
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they call the nacho trade, not a chance Hormuz opens, meaning that what some markets are doing
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is saying, let's assume the worst. How do we still get around it and make money? Look, the U.S
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is in a much better position because it's energy rich in oil and gas. We've actually increased our
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production and exports to make up for some of the Gulf production not out there. But nonetheless
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gasoline prices are going up. The latest inflation figure for April was plus 3.8 percent
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over last year. This is serious. Trump knows this. It's negative effect on the economy will have a
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negative effect on already pretty chancy Republican odds for November, keeping control of the House
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and the Senate. That'll simply worry Trump more. He says, I don't care about it. You know, for if
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you're playing geopolitics, that's great. I find it hard to believe he doesn't care about it
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but he doesn't have an answer. That's for sure. And therefore, presumably for a smaller
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more open less resilient economy like the UK The immediate future could be quite bleak Well I think the loss of production from the Gulf is obviously a major impact on the world
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economy generally. It's why you cannot allow it to persist. This is, and by the way, for those who
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care about international law, what Iran is doing is a gross violation of international law. This
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is an international waterway. There should be free maritime passage, the right of innocent passage
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Those who care about international law should be demanding something of Iran, not negotiating with them
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I think Trump will have to do something because otherwise he will have done what Winston Churchill said of Anthony Eden in the Suez C crisis of 1956
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Churchill said, I shouldn't have dared to do it. But if I had done it, I shouldn't have dared to stop
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Meanwhile, President Trump is in Beijing talking with President Xi. some really big international issues on the agenda there, not least Taiwan
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Right. I think they talked about U.S.-China trade. I'm sure they talked about the Iran issue and the
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pressure China could put on Iran to give up control. But the question of Taiwan is probably
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long-term the most sensitive. The Chinese readout of the talks today showed China's line on Taiwan
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Trump asked about it didn answer a question It not in the U readout at all That makes I do think though that it unlikely Trump would give in the Chinese pressure to reduce arms sales to Taiwan I think that would cause an explosion in Congress if he did that where Taiwan has broad bipartisan support which in these days in the States is unusual
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What I'm more worried about is that he has made a political concession in this complex and obscure formulation of Taiwan status
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Even saying something like we oppose Taiwanese independence could could harm Taiwan very significantly
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And I'm sure Trump does not know the full impact of some of these things
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Xi Jinping, I think, could persuade him to do it. We don't know the answer
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I remain worried at this point. Just coming back to our little local difficulty here in London, how is Starmer regarded in Washington these days
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Is he somebody that the UK should be very wary of losing as a leader? You know, I don't think he's made that big of an impression, to tell you the truth
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He doesn't. He's not an outsized political figure. The occasion hasn't arisen where he would gain a lot of attention with the American public
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I have to confess, Republican though I am, King Charles is a much bigger figure
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And I think the recent visit turned out to be a success for both countries. Thank goodness
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I don't think it would move many meters in the U.S., depending on what the outcome of the Labor Party dispute is at this point
