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James O'Brien reacts as Andy Burnham considers scrapping triple lock pensions.
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0:00
The words triple lock, it's a funny one, isn't it
0:02
Because Andy Burnham is linking it inextricably to social care. Money saved by adjusting the triple lock would go towards the social care plans
0:10
that we were talking about yesterday. And yet it's very much subject to the same malaise, isn't it
0:17
The same intellectual malaise in that I say social care and you
0:21
depending upon where you are in life, where you are on life's journey at the moment
0:26
your ears either prick up or turn off. My ears turned off at the conversation of social care
0:32
until you actually taught me why it was so important. And the same with triple lock
0:37
You know, I say triple lock, you say, oh, whatever. Or you say, how dare you even mention the possibility
0:43
of reducing something that I need or deserve or want or have
0:48
I don't know what to do about that. There's no way every single thing that we talk about every single day
0:53
can be of equal interest to everybody listening. But I want to reach today, if you're still here, the people who just go, oh no, triple lock
1:05
It doesn't have to be boring, all right? I appreciate the fact that I've never had a conversation about it with you before suggests that I have concluded somewhere subconsciously that it is always boring
1:14
But let's begin with me being a bit obnoxious, shall we? And suggesting that even people who are passionately opposed to any scrapping of the state pension triple lock don't actually know what it is
1:26
or aren't entirely clear on what it does? What is the triple lock
1:31
How long has it been in place? What is it? How much would it cost to scrap it
1:35
How much does it cost to have it? All of these questions, I think, need to be answered
1:41
The first is pretty easy. It means, essentially, that the government is committed to raising the state pension
1:52
every single year by one of three rates, whichever is highest. Inflation, earnings, or 2.5%, a sort of flat rate of 2.5%
2:06
If I told you that over the past three years, if we'd had a double lock on the state pension
2:13
then you would not have suffered any material loss. That's because the average earnings increase outpaced inflation
2:20
so the simple fact of the matter is that for the last three years
2:26
it wouldn't have affected you if they'd already scrapped the triple lock three years ago if Keir
2:32
Starmer had scrapped the triple lock it would not have affected anybody's pension hands up if you
2:37
knew that go on hands up seriously I'm talking to my colleagues I can't see anyone else hands up if
2:42
you knew that if Keir Starmer had scrapped the triple lock nobody would have seen their pension
2:47
go down. I work with children, so they're not really thinking about paychecks. You didn't know
2:52
that. You didn't know that. Did you know that? You didn't know that. So that's point number one
2:58
It is not going to be, in the short term at least, a particular financial penalty for
3:04
everybody. And for decades prior to 2010, the rise was pegged to only two of those metrics
3:13
It was not pegged to all three. And, you know, we can't afford it
3:20
Now, in almost any other context, when you say the country can't afford it
3:26
everyone either agrees or disagrees according to how it affects them personally
3:32
The country can't afford it. The problem is it's often a very manufactured conversation
3:35
and it's often replete with an awful lot of lies. We can't afford it. Yes, we can
3:39
We're spending all that money on X, Y and Z. We should stop spending money on that instead. Do you know what would raise roughly two-thirds of the money needed for the social care plan
3:47
Rising immigration which would wipe out the billion deficit that John Healy is looking at as a consequence of plummeting immigration That the Office of Budgetary Responsibility Technically an extrapolation of their figures and an abolition of the of the triple lot on on pension so here one problem
4:04
that we've got immediately that i've just spotted how come it would save a lot of money if it wasn't
4:09
going to in the short term affect any pensioners income that's something to wrestle with i don't
4:15
know the answer to that this is why i find the subject matter somewhat challenging at the best
4:19
of times so it's only been in place for 16 years it would not involve any reduction in any year
4:28
it would never see the pension going down on an annual basis and it would save money to not quite
4:36
to fill a big enough gap but the policy is now costing according to one estimate more than 15
4:43
billion pounds a year and it's not sustainable it's not sustainable that is the bottom line
4:54
and the fact it is not sustainable and I'm going to tell you something else it is not fair either
5:02
one of the biggest myths and I find it extraordinary but to be honest after all these years I'm used to
5:07
it I find it extraordinary that you can ring for example a radio station and talk utter gibberish
5:12
unchallenged. The money you paid into your pension was spent on pensions for people who
5:19
were pensioners when you were paying it into your pension. That's the nature of the relationship
5:24
That's the nature of the social contract. It hasn't been kept for you in a vault at Gringotts
5:30
accruing interest bestowed by the goblin bankers that will then be given to you when you reach
5:36
retirement age. It's a fundamental platform of the social contract. And the social contract
5:41
involves everybody in society. So the money I am paying now is what pays your pension if you're not working
5:49
The taxes I am paying now, I am paying for your pension, you're not
5:53
The people whose pension you paid for when you were working are probably dead. Okay, so let's just very politely suggest
6:01
don't bother ringing me to make that argument because although you've probably heard it
6:05
on this radio station before, it's bogus, pointless and false. okay i am currently paying for your pension with my taxes if you're retired you paid for someone
6:17
else's years ago so the question of what's fair and what's not fair should probably be answered
6:21
by me not by you because it's my money that is paying your pension and i think it would be
6:27
perfectly fair to see it go up every year according to a double lock not a triple lock
6:31
right this isn't even opinion yet this is just counting the problem is it becomes immediately
6:38
politically toxic. I am never going to bore, I'm never going to tire this morning, or indeed in
6:46
this career, in this life, I'm never going to tire of pointing out to you how fundamentally
6:50
dishonest much of our discourse is in this country. Fundamentally dishonest. Most obviously
6:56
with those two statistics that I have fallen in love with this week, 53% of the population takes
7:02
out more than it puts in and um it's roughly six billion pounds in lost revenue as a consequence
7:09
of the plummeting migration that everybody um thought that they wanted and continues to insist
7:14
will somehow make us richer so we are not only making ourselves poorer by pursuing populist
7:19
political goals we are also at the same time ignorant of the fact that most of us take more
7:26
out than we put in, with pensioners being by far the most highly represented members of that
7:33
category. But the older you get, the more likely you are to cross the threshold from putting in
7:38
to taking out. And all of that is fact. All of those are matter of facts. But the reason I
7:47
mention the disingenuous media is that immediately you will have although to be fair to the Daily Telegraph today they do a fairly measured job of running through the reasons why it should happen but also why no politician or no leader is going to have
8:02
Well, it's not even guts, is it? It's not the guts. It doesn't take guts to jump off a cliff
8:07
even if you've got a parachute. It's... What is even the word
8:13
Enough optimism. Hearing Andy Burnham talk a lot about optimism. And the idea that you would be able to somehow overcome
8:21
the corrupt discourse I think is the heart of this conversation. So according to One Front Page, he is signalling the end of triple lock
8:32
He will announce a review of the policy as he seeks money for NHS-style social care service
8:40
Fascinating listening to him talk to Sheila Fogarty about that yesterday. It was, as we suspected, confined to OAPs
8:47
It won't encompass people under the pensionable age who are in need of long-term, even permanent social care
8:54
That's another Rubicon to cross later in government or possibly never. But this is specific to old-age pensioners
9:01
One way to raise the money is to abolish the triple lock, render it rather a double lock
9:07
That is estimated to save between £15 billion and £22 billion by 2030
9:12
depending on whether you are following wage growth or inflation. So you simply remove the 2.5%
9:18
It means that some years your pension can go up by less than 2.5%
9:22
but it will never go up by less than whatever is highest out of earnings or inflation
9:30
And that is just fair. I couldn't even tell you now why they introduced this in the first place in 2010
9:35
except to shore up the vote of old age pensioners. Your pension will never go down
9:41
unless, I suppose, inflation goes, unless we're in deflation or earnings are going down
9:50
in which case you don't need to worry because your money's going to go further anyway. You'll be in the same pot as people who are earning
9:55
whose money has gone down. So you will never, ever, ever see your pension go down
10:00
under a double lock because it will be going up in line with wage growth or inflation
10:08
Right, who's turned off now? Who have I lost during my, I would say, 60 to 70% effective attempt to explain exactly what is going on
10:16
Who have I lost? Because here's the political problem. People who aren't even close to the pensionable age don't care
10:24
People who are close to it or over it care too much. They care too much to avail themselves of the correct information
10:31
And the correct information would be, don't worry. All right? You are not going to receive as much as you might have received otherwise
10:40
but that's entirely fair because you will still be receiving the same
10:43
as anybody who depends upon wage growth or wages for their income
10:48
Your increase in pension will be the same as someone who earns money
10:53
Your percentage increase in income will be the same as someone who works for a living
10:59
So what exactly is the problem here? Answer politics. Answer media. answer rhetoric answer we live in a country where people have been variously persuaded that brexit
11:10
would be a good idea that boris johnson would be a brilliant prime minister that liz trust was an
11:14
economic genius that donald trump would be a doughty and devoted ally to the united kingdom
11:19
that climate change wasn't real um that benjamin netanyahu was uh also likely to be a trusted ally
11:25
to the united kingdom or that he would um honor our our generosity towards him um all of these
11:33
things that the British media has successfully persuaded people to believe despite the fact
11:37
that they are all dangerously and demonstrably untrue untrue so how's it gonna go
11:46
how it gonna go can it be won politically can and and the BBC this morning and and I didn pick up on this myself because I wasn tuned in but somebody that I trust very much has picked up on it And the BBC this morning
12:03
kind of effortlessly segued from arguing that it would be electoral suicide to scrap the triple
12:11
lock to explaining that critics are wondering whether the prime minister has the nerve to make
12:17
the tough decisions. And it's easy to criticise them for that. But that
12:21
is the Scylla and Charybdis of this conversation. It would be political suicide to scrap the triple
12:27
lock. Andy Burnham hasn't got the guts to scrap the triple lock
12:31
Andy Burnham hasn't got the guts to commit political suicide. That is on
12:35
the same broadcaster on the same morning in reference to the same story
12:39
Critics point out that it would be political suicide to scrap the triple lock. Critics
12:43
wonder whether Andy Burnham has the guts to scrap the triple lock. And that, although it sounds
12:47
contradictory and counterintuitive two things can be true at the same time
12:51
that's the fundamental problem here which is why today's conversation is going to be about
12:56
Andy Burnham and perhaps John Healy who we know a lot more about today than we did yesterday
13:03
as a consequence of the decision to take his speech in full can anybody, because I don't think anyone else could sell it
13:09
to the British public I'm not sure anybody else would try people in opposition don't have to deal in
13:15
reality, something that Nigel Farage proves every day and which Cammie Bader not kind of
13:21
almost proves every day, flirts with every day, with a side order of completely ignoring what
13:27
happened when her lot were in charge for 14 years. So, do you think, do you think it's doable
13:36
0345 6060 973. Do you think it's doable in Brexit Britain? I'm going to say it again
13:45
because I really think it matters. In a country where the public have been persuaded
13:49
by bad actors, populist politicians, liars and plutocrats, been persuaded that Brexit would make us richer
13:57
that Boris Johnson would look after us, that Liz Truss was an economic genius
14:01
that Donald Trump would be a brilliant ally for this country and that climate change wasn't real
14:06
The public can be persuaded of that. But it depends what side of the bed I got out
14:12
I've got to be honest with you. I got out on the right side of the bed. I can turn up my optimism in the morning and think
14:18
well, just because we have fallen down all of those holes doesn't mean that we won't actually manage to get over that bridge
14:25
And then on other mornings, I think, how the hell is anybody ever going to persuade the people of the United Kingdom
14:30
to vote in their own interests when all they ever do is vote in the interests of the liars and the racists and the plutocrats
14:36
and the weirdos who dominate our public discourse and the client journalists, of course, who dominate our public discourse
14:43
but I can never be that person even if some mornings I kind of find myself drawn to those
14:48
but I can never be that because it's the way I'm made it's in my DNA
14:52
always going to have a little bit of optimism always going to think that we can be better than this
14:56
always going to think that even people who might be hurling abuse at RNLI volunteers
15:02
if they were actually in a position to save a drowning child
15:05
who happened to have come from Syria or Afghanistan I'm always going to have to believe
15:09
that even if they were hurling abuse at the RNLI volunteers yesterday
15:13
today, if it was down to them to save that child or let them drown, they would save that child
15:17
I have to believe it. Otherwise, we can all pack up and go home
15:21
and hand over the keys on the way out to, I don't even know
15:25
Elon Musk, I suppose. So, can it work? Do you think it can work
15:30
How would you do it? There's the question. It got there in the end. How would you do it
15:34
How do we sell the end of the triple lock to the British public, to enough of the British public to ensure that it wouldn't be electoral suicide
15:47
How do we do it? Can it be done? I want no's as well. I want you to ring in and say, no, it can't, James
15:51
But if it can, then how can it
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