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Donald Trump has ordered Israel and Iran to 'immediately stop 'shooting' after missile strikes shook both nations overnight. Shelagh Fogarty is joined by Kasra Aarabi, the director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran. He specialises in Iranian military and security affairs and Shia extremism. Previously, Aarabi was the Iran Program lead at the Tony Blair Institute. It comes as Sir Keir Starmer said it was 'really important that all parties get back to a ceasefire' in the Middle East after Iran and Israel exchanged missile attacks and air strikes. The warning from Trump came after Israel launched 'retaliatory' air strikes against Iran early on Monday, despite earlier calls for restraint from US President Donald Trump and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #ShelaghFogarty #Iran #Israel #USA #News #Politics #Worldnews #WorldPolitics #DonaldTrump #Trump #Benjaminnetanyahu #Netanyahu #Ayatollah #MiddleEast #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
The whole question of Iran wanting Hezbollah's fate tied to its own when it comes to any deal
0:08
with America has become clearer and clearer by the day, hasn't it? That is what Iran wants
0:12
Hezbollah being the proxy terrorist group, essentially, of, or proxy militia of
0:20
not of Israel, of Iran in Lebanon, which is why there has been bombing of Lebanon. But
0:26
in the last hour or so, Iran's top military command's central headquarters announced it
0:31
will stop striking Israel, but in the next breath said that it will carry out more severe
0:37
strikes and more severe response if Israel continues striking southern Lebanon. And it
0:42
comes, as you know, from what James has been talking about as well, after Donald Trump told
0:46
Iran and Israel to stop shooting at one another after the countries attacked each other's territory
0:51
for the first time since that April ceasefire kicked in. I'm joined to talk about this now with Khazra Arabi
0:58
Director of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Research at United Against Nuclear Iran
1:04
He specialises in Iranian military and security affairs and Shia extremism. Previously, he was the Iran programme lead
1:12
at the Tony Blair Institute. So that sounds like your full CV there
1:17
Khazra, thank you for joining me today. I don't think we can hear you
1:21
Did I hear you when you said thank you? Thank you for having me. Oh, there you are. There we go. Thank you
1:25
That's great. Can we start on that point about how what Iran says here
1:32
it makes it even more clear, it was starting to look pretty clear anyway
1:35
but even more clear that Iran wants Hezbollah's fate fully tied into its own
1:40
when it comes to any deal with the United States. Yes, absolutely
1:45
And the reason being Hezbollah was created by the Iranian regime. It was created by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
1:52
called the IRGC. It operates as the most important, the most valuable proxy terror group for the regime
2:01
Obviously, it is on the border of Israel. This is a group that is ideologically compliant
2:07
practically, to the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. It pledges allegiance to the regime
2:15
the theocratic regime, over its allegiance to Lebanon. So in terms of strategic importance, it is highly strategically important to the regime
2:25
If it loses Hezbollah, and let's be clear, Hezbollah has been significantly weakened as a result of Israel's operations
2:32
But if it loses Hezbollah, then the regime's hand, the regime's ability to carry out its ideological objective of eradicating the state of Israel becomes much harder
2:43
So, yes, absolutely, they're trying to tie that to their own negotiations
2:49
You may have seen this, you may not, but I'll say it so that our listeners are seeing it. I'm seeing it for the first time from Donald Trump's Truth Social
2:55
Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate ceasefire
2:59
Final negotiations on peace are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way
3:05
The blockade will remain in place, he's talking about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, of course
3:09
and in full force and effect until a final deal is reached. Things should move quickly
3:15
I mean, sometimes with these posts you get a sense He's trying to will things into existence, but who knows what's going on in the background
3:21
What's your sense of things here? I think we can take a step back and observe how the Iranians perceive this
3:28
how the IRGC leadership, which is deeply ideological. When I say deeply ideological, 50% of the IRGC's training is indoctrination
3:38
That's indoctrination in a Shia, Islamist extremist, anti-Semitic ideology. let's assess their perception because perception is the key word here reality is almost irrelevant
3:51
they perceived they carried out direct strikes on israel president trump issued a warning and said
3:57
he made it very clear that he had asked prime minister netanyahu not to strike back the israelis
4:04
struck back however the iranians believe they perceive that actually by striking back again this
4:11
may be detached from reality but they perceive that they have been able to wedge a gap between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump So they actually viewing this as a success And that view that they have been able to wedge a gap
4:27
between Israel and the United States decreases the margin for error. In other words, it is going to increase
4:38
miscalculation on the behalf of the Iranians and strategic recklessness. So actually, as I said, because of that perception
4:46
because they view this as a success, it's going to pump more air in an already inflated
4:53
over-inflated ego of the IRGC leadership, which is increasingly ideological. They don't rationalise like the West
5:02
They obviously have their own rationality. But what I find quite remarkable is that Western leaders
5:08
struggle to grasp the fact that they think differently to us. They rationalise differently to us
5:14
And because of this situation, Because the fact that that margin for error has decreased, expect them to make miscalculations, expect them to pursue a strategically reckless policy
5:28
Iran? Yes, absolutely. And yet, Israel must surely feel, both Israelis who are seeing these hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of missiles sent as they were last night
5:40
they have their perception too, don't they? Which is, oh my God, I and my kids and my parents and my grandparents are in shelters again
5:46
while thousands of rockets are directed into the north of Israel. Netanyahu has to respond to their fears, doesn't he, as well
5:55
If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not respond to the direct strikes from the Iranians
6:02
then again, the Iranians would have perceived that they have shifted the goalposts
6:06
That actually, for the first time, they were able to carry out strikes without facing any consequences
6:12
The Israelis could not afford to let that happen. So the strikes were necessary
6:18
However, as I said, in both scenarios, whether they struck or did not strike
6:23
the Iranian perception was that they've triumphed, that actually because Trump told Netanyahu not to strike
6:30
and he's gone off and done it anyway, that actually they've managed to, for the first time
6:34
drive a wedge between the Israelis and the Americans. And that's one of their objectives
6:38
That's one of their strategic goals. But wasn't that wedge already there? I mean, you know, the phone call recently where he called him a crazy effing bee
6:44
and, you know, everyone hating Israel because of the way he's conducted himself
6:48
and the way he's conducted various wars and military operations. That wedge was already there, wasn't it
6:53
I would take that with a pinch of salt. I would take that the reporting has certainly been that
6:59
Whether or not there was actually this altercation, you know, I very much doubt that
7:03
However, again, reality is almost irrelevant. The Iranian perception is that wedge was already there
7:10
and through last night's attack, they've managed to increase that wedge. as a result as I said that's inflated more air into an already inflated ego and that will shape
7:21
their calculus that means they are more likely to be reckless they are more likely to miscalculate
7:27
and they are masters at miscalculating and overreaching can I ask you this though you say
7:32
you take that with a pinch of salt the Axios report about the effing and blinding conversation
7:37
between Netanyahu and Trump with apparently Trump doing all the swearing um is it your
7:43
understanding and perhaps your former boss Tony Blair might have given you insights into this when
7:47
he was a political leader that that actually these kinds of more aggressive more muscular
7:55
conversations including bad language back and forth to one another take place all the time
7:59
behind the scenes Axios just managed to shine some light on it that it's not particularly unusual
8:04
for two big world leaders at a point of crisis to have a ding dong I would doubt the reporting
8:12
because if there is a highly sensitive conversation between two world leaders
8:19
the odds are that the conversation will remain in private. The odds are that any sensitive information that was shared
8:29
any language, any discourse that was shared would remain private. Now, that is a bigger question
8:35
There's a bigger question. I had a piece in The Telegraph just on Saturday about this about how the mainstream media the majority of the mainstream media reporting on the Iran war has been driven sadly by an anti bias rather than objective
8:52
reporting. Therefore, we're in a situation where the war is trying to be painted as a disaster from
8:58
start to finish by elements of the media as a means to attack Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin
9:05
netanyahu that's effectively blinded us to objective factual reporting from on the ground
9:12
whether you like president trump or dislike president trump that's almost irrelevant the
9:16
objective reporting on the ground however has been shaped by that anti-trump bias or some of it
9:22
not all of it well in what sense if you look at the perspective for example one of the narratives
9:28
are that the media has been pushing that is that had this war not taken place the irgc the islamic
9:34
Revolutionary Guard Corps would not be in control of the regime. And that's completely ludicrous
9:39
The IRGC in the past four decades has monopolised every aspect of power in the regime. However
9:46
for some reason, that has now become the mainstream dominant line. Now, in most ceasefires, whether they're in the Middle East or not
9:54
most of them aren't ever total ceasefires. You know, you'd have to look at Northern Ireland
10:00
even now you know that the good friday agreement has made huge strides but there is still sectarian
10:07
violence in northern ireland donald trump said something interesting about ceasefires in the
10:11
middle east he said it's it's more a case of shooting in a more moderate manner is a ceasefire
10:18
is that about right or i wouldn't phrase it in those words however on this instance um the concept
10:25
is correct. Why is the concept correct? Well, hostility in the region, the barrier to peace
10:31
and stability in the Middle East is the ideology of this regime, is the ideology of the IRGC
10:37
The IRGC has an ideological mission. It's enshrined into the constitution of the Iranian
10:45
states. Destroy Israel, destroy the Western interests, destroy the West, destroy their values
10:49
Absolutely. They're the devil. Absolutely. And it's civilizational. So whereas we approach the region in a very transactional way where we are driven, our rationality is driven by cost benefit ysis based on material interests. For them, it's far more ideological. So their cost benefit ysis is driven by their ideology
11:11
And so long as this regime exists, this regime, by the way, is the most anti-Semitic regime since Nazi Germany
11:18
Even the code name they used for their strikes on Israel last night, Operation True Promise
11:24
alludes to the alleged true promise by the sixth Shia imam, who allegedly promised that the Jews would be annihilated by the people of Rom
11:35
Effectively, it has the same connotations as Final Solution. So so long as this regime exists, and by the way, his existence isn't certain
11:44
Just in the past 48 hours, we've seen more protests. The regime is constantly on TV, on state TV, warning Iranians, saying, do not come out on the streets
11:54
telling other Iranians to report any suspicious behavior, any anti-regime behavior. This is a highly securitized state
12:02
It's clearly a totalitarian state. A totalitarian dictatorship that has sought to enforce its ideology
12:08
It's anti-Semitic, misogynistic, homophobic ideology across every sector of Iranian society. And the Iranian people, as they demonstrated in January when they took to the streets in their millions, want this regime gone
12:23
The regime responded to that by killing, massacring 40,000 unarmed civilians on the streets
12:28
It fears the Iranian people. And that's why the existence of this regime is not guaranteed
12:34
If this regime collapses, it will be the single most liberating thing for the region
12:39
And the odds for long-term peace and stability significantly increase. How likely is it to collapse
12:47
In the short to medium term... It's withstood a lot in the last 100 days. It's the 100 days since the war began
12:55
It has withstood a lot because it imposed martial law from the moment this military operation began So from the moment this military operation began rather than respond directly to US and Israel they actually activated all the layers of their suppressive apparatus activated a code red martial law the IRGC seized control of the provinces
13:16
It erected checkpoints, armed checkpoints across every single neighbourhood. It ensured that the Iranian people did not have the space
13:23
I acquired a message that was sent by the IRGC to regime supporters
13:29
That message was very clear. This was at the start of the war. It called on its supporters, its hard base
13:34
Its hard base constitutes about 10% of the population. It called on its hard base to take to the streets
13:39
It said very clearly, your control over the streets is more important than our control over our military bases
13:46
Because if we lose control of the streets, unrest will prevail. And we cannot tolerate unrest whilst we face an external conflict
13:54
And that, whether it's the current incumbents or previous incumbents, that relationship between the Israeli leader, whoever it is at the time, and the American president is a critical one, an historic one
14:09
You know, billions of words probably being written about it, hundreds of books written about it
14:15
Is this one any different than, say, I don't know, Obama and Netanyahu
14:20
Is it different from those of previous decades, different characters altogether? Or is it just about the same
14:27
America ultimately in charge of decision-making about strikes and no strikes. Israel is a sovereign state and it will make its own national security decision-making
14:37
At every turn? Israel is a sovereign state. It will make its national security decision-making by itself, of course, if it has to
14:45
It's surrounded by hostile Islamist extremist terrorist groups. It has to protect and preserve its national security first and foremost
14:52
Now, that relationship between Israel and the United States is longstanding. It's a special relationship
14:57
The very terrorists who seek to inflict harm on Western society, including here in Britain
15:02
are the very terrorists that seek to destroy the state of Israel. So that special relationship between Israel and the United States will exist regardless of whichever president is in charge
15:13
Now, the Iranian, the IRGC objective, if you actually study their doctrines in the past five to six years
15:20
has been very clear. We need to draw a wedge between Israel and the United States
15:24
We need to expel the United States and its military bases from the region so that we can isolate Israel
15:30
so that Israel no longer has the capability to have the US intervene on its behalf
15:36
This is the IRGC's doctrine. I was just thinking, if somebody had just tuned in now, they'd think it was your view, but I know what you're saying
15:40
This is not my view, absolutely not. This is the IRGC's view. Now, the IRGC perceives that it has been able to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States
15:52
And actually, Western media has assisted it in doing so. Again, regardless of reality or not, this is all about perception
15:59
If it perceives that it is successfully managed to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States through direct strikes on Israel, that, as I said, will go to their head and that will increase their strategic recklessness
16:16
It will increase their miscalculation. And as a result, the margin for error in the Middle East decreases
16:24
That increases the chance of conflict. This conflict will continue, irrespective of whether there's going to be a settlement
16:31
on the Straits of Hormuz or not. It has been a conflict, by the way, since 1979
16:37
Because of Iran, Israel, and everything you've described about it. Absolutely. One very quick point, but the Iranian people, let's be very clear
16:44
the Iranian people are actually very pro-Israel. That's not surprising. The very terrorists that want to terrorise the state of Israel
16:53
the IRGC, are the ones who are murdering the Iranian people on the streets
16:58
So you have a situation where you've got the most anti-Semitic regime
17:02
since Nazi Germany in charge of a state, but its population are actually probably
17:07
one of the most pro-Israel populations in the Middle East. Kazra, very good to talk to you
17:12
Thank you for your time today, Kazra Arabi, Director of Islamic Revolutionary Gargoyle IRGC Research
17:17
at the United Nations Nuclear... United Against Nuclear Iran as well, specialising in Iranian military affairs
17:25
and in Shia extremisms
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