0:00
How likely is it that Iran has fired a missile at a US destroyer
0:05
Oh, I think it's possible they've fired a missile. I think it's highly unlikely they've actually hit two American ships
0:11
for a number of reasons. One, they'd have to be pretty daft to do that
0:15
Two, if they had done, because this was several hours ago, allegedly
0:20
by now there would have been multiple airstrikes against Iran. There's no way in hell if two American ships had been hit
0:27
the Americans would not have retaliated with overwhelming force. So, you know, never say never, but I do not believe it
0:36
They may well have fired warning shots in the vicinity of, precisely to send the message to the Americans and to President Trump
0:46
that if he's going to try and implement this Project Freedom to get the ships out, or at least to resupply them
0:53
then they will have something to say about that. And the UAE, the United Arab Emirates, has said that a tanker affiliated with its state-owned oil company, Adnok, has been hit in the Strait of Hormuz
1:06
So clearly missiles are flying. That's more plausible, especially if the UAE has said it
1:12
That's more plausible. And in fact, there was an attack, I think, yesterday, and there was an attack by the small Iranian fastboats, I think, on Friday against ships
1:22
I mean, 10 sailors have died during this crisis and there's been about 27 ships hit
1:28
But, you know, that is a different thing to actually hitting two American warships
1:33
So I think we can park that for the moment. But again, hitting ships again would be another message
1:43
Trump's project freedom is that apparently there's going to be 100 airplanes and 15,000 personnel
1:50
and dozens of ships are going to somehow resupply the 2,000 or so ships that are currently trapped
2:02
and the Iranians aren't going to do anything about that to stop it
2:07
Well, we'll see. Yeah, and it brings into focus, doesn't it, something we don't necessarily focus on enough
2:14
which is the plight of the seamen and probably sea women as well, one or two in the mix
2:20
on board these commercial ships These are not military ships No they not They are people from all over the world primarily well not primarily there a lot of Sri Lankans and Indians Pakistanis people from across the globe
2:39
And this is not their fight. And what is it, 10 weeks now, trapped on these ships
2:44
dwindling supplies, some of them will probably have medical needs. And as I said, there's
2:48
about 20,000 of them. So that is a humanitarian issue. Perhaps some of the shipping..
2:56
I mean, the problem with the... You could helicopter some of them off if they were close to some of the shorelines
3:01
on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf. But ships need crews
3:07
even if they're just anchored in the middle there waiting. And who wants to go and replace them
3:13
Not that very many, you know, who's going to volunteer for another 10 weeks without being able to get off and being resupplied
3:19
So you can understand why somebody is going to try and do it
3:24
but the Iranians are still insisting that they are the ones that control both Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in general
3:32
and therefore if the United States does try to implement this project freedom
3:37
this humanitarian gesture, as Trump called it, as I said, they may have something to say about it
3:43
So also this plan, Sheila, there is no plan. There's just been a sort of paragraph
3:50
And that's not a plan. There's nothing about whether they're going to escort ships
3:54
There's nothing about how they're going to do it. And if you haven't got a plan that is made public
4:00
which insurance company is going to insure a ship to come out through that narrow gap
4:08
just on a paragraph written at whatever o'clock it was in the morning
4:12
when Mr Trump put it out on his Truth Social. Sorry, go on
4:17
I was going to say, even before we had these reports of missiles being fired on US destroyers
4:21
which, as you say, will park for the moment, but even before those reports came out
4:26
it occurred to me that American destroyers, American military ships going into the Strait of Hormuz
4:33
even if we believe the reason for doing it, you can see why Iran would say
4:39
yeah, well, you know what? We're going to err on the side of caution and suspect you're actually coming in for other reasons
4:45
intelligence reasons, possibly even attack reasons? They would. I mean it a bit of a problem a perennial problem that been down through the ages about military manoeuvres You know if there two enemies and one of them goes on even if it is a genuine exercise the other side immediately thinks that could be a cover for something And so they will be on a hair trigger And the closer to the coastline the Americans get the less warning time they have Now they have the world best defensive measures and their destroyers are the world best
5:19
and they've got these anti-missile missile systems on them, the Aegis. But even so, the closer you're getting to the Iranian coast
5:27
and you would be within 10 miles of it, the less your reaction time
5:31
And so the closer you get, the more danger you put a ship in. And if they lose a ship, well, A, think of the response that they would make
5:38
but also think of the politics of it back in the United States
5:42
It would be a massive problem for the Trump administration. so you know as i said at the moment all we've got is a paragraph by the way shayla can i congratulate
5:52
you on um doing the piece later in the in this hour on food prices i i just think not enough
5:57
has been made yeah of the um fact that 20 30 of the world's fertilizers come out of the uh
6:05
straight of hormones and if you haven't got fertilizer it's very difficult to plant crops
6:11
and if you can't plant your crops, you can't harvest them. And we are going to see price rises come this autumn
6:17
And the latest warning is that by November, lots of foodstuffs will be up 50% on what they were at the beginning of this war
6:26
Sorry, I mean, forgive me for hijacking your programme and changing subjects
6:31
but I wrote a piece about this last week and I was looking at it again this morning, actually, by coincidence
6:38
50% seems to me a bit high. most economists that I've either read or spoken to are looking between 5% and 10%
6:44
But when you consider, when you look at your supermarket bill even now
6:48
and you flinch, if you're going to put another 10% on that, that's about enough
6:53
I mean, if it's 50% on particular items, I mean, it's not across the board
6:58
It's particular items. And that's in the UK sense. If you go and look at it globally, and I'm sure you'll be going into this in detail
7:04
If you want to look at it globally, the African countries are in a world of pain over this
7:11
because their farmers are subsidised for fertilisers. Well not if fertiliser prices have gone up by 70 as they have in some parts And so the reason that I thought it really good that you going to be talking about this is that everybody talks about this 20 of oil and gas that comes through but it is equally important about the fertilizers and the problems that may come may come this autumn and the longer
7:37
this is closed the more likely is that the prices are going to go up what's your gut feeling about
7:45
how long this is going to go on because it's interesting to note this morning that even that
7:52
statement by Donald Trump about their proposed moves in the Strait of Hormuz, it didn't really
7:59
move the oil markets that much. And previously, any utterance by him would quite dramatically shift
8:07
Are people just bedding in for the long haul here and therefore being less reactive
8:12
You're right. It's interesting that the markets didn't move that much. There was a little flicker last night when he announced this Project Freedom
8:20
but it very quickly went away. And I think it's because the markets, like everyone else now
8:26
realises that he says something on Friday, lets it go over the weekend
8:31
and then before the markets open on a Monday, he just says something else. And so it's priced in
8:35
And also people have worked out that both sides are stuck. They're absolutely stuck
8:40
Both sides desperately want to get out of this. Briefly, the Iranians have got many clocks that are ticking
8:46
but one of them is their oil industry is still working at a reduced rate
8:51
Therefore, every day, X thousand or whatever it is, barrels of oil have to be put into a well somewhere
9:01
somewhere to keep it. At some point, and it's thought it could be next week, they're full
9:07
that means you have to shut down your oil industry because you haven't got anywhere to put the oil
9:13
and i'm told by the experts that once you close down your oil industry it is incredibly hard to
9:20
get it restarted and you have all sorts of things like you can get explosions in the pipelines because
9:24
um well for basic chemistry that i don't understand so that clock is ticking trump's
9:31
clock is ticking the world's economy you know they're all desperate to get out of it but but
9:35
But neither side is prepared to openly give way and lose face for different reasons
9:42
And so, you know, we're stuck. So, God willing, it ends tomorrow
9:46
Maybe it will. But at the moment, people are bedding in for this carrying on for weeks, more at least
