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LBC's Joseph Draper takes a look at the 'crisis talks' about to begin between the Iran and US in Doha, following attacks made in the Strait of Hormuz by both sides. These skirmishes took place only days after Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran to set in place a peace process. But Donald Trump has been exercised by reports of Iranian strikes, writing that if reports continued, he would ensure Iran would 'no longer exist!' Donald Trump is sending envoys to Doha to begin negotiations, although Iran are yet to confirm they will attend talks. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #josephdraper #trump #iran #israel #netanyahu #lebanon #peace #war #LBC LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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Is this what a ceasefire looks like? Days after Iran and the United States signed a deal to work
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towards an end to their war in the Middle East, they've started to trade blows yet again in the
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Strait of Hormuz. Iran has launched multiple strikes on vessels crossing the strait
0:17
raising a serious question. Is this deal worth the paper it's written on? In fact
0:23
it feels like a return to war is more likely than a lasting peace, with a furious Donald Trump
0:29
warning that if things continue, Iran will no longer exist. The US and Iran are now due to meet
0:37
in Doha for crisis talks to ensure this doesn't happen. But we've been here before when diplomacy
0:44
is tried, failed and the conclusion becomes more military escalation. Why can't Donald Trump
0:50
the self-appointed master of the deal, secure peace in the Middle East and who ultimately is
0:56
to blame. Donald Trump arrived at the Palace of Versailles in June to sign an agreement with Iran
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to work towards an end to their war in the Middle East. After weeks of talks that went nowhere in
1:08
Pakistan, Trump hailed the deal signed in France as a huge win. But there were concerns that the
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deal was overly vague and lacked the crucial details needed to secure peace. Instead of being
1:20
a solution to both parties' troubles. Some ysts argue it brought new problems into focus
1:27
The Memorandum of Understanding, which was supposed to codify the ceasefire, was very
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very ambiguous. And what happens with this kind of an agreement, which is very ambiguous
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at a moment when tensions are fraught, is that the parties try to test out the threshold of each
1:45
other in terms of trying to interpret or negotiate further the agreement using force
1:51
Out of the 14 points in the deal, only one really mattered, and it lay in point five
1:58
In it, Iran promised to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which around a fifth of the world's
2:04
oil passes through in peacetime The world could breathe a sigh of relief with a global economic downturn appearing less likely But this would barely last a week Days later reports emerged that Iran had attacked a vessel crossing the strait
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and Donald Trump was quick to respond. Still have a fight. They have some capability, not much
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They're not winning or anything, but they have some capability. They can still shoot. You know, they shot a drone yesterday at a big ship going into the Haramon Strait
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They shot four of them. We knocked down three of them, one of them. We didn't miss it. Nobody saw it coming
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The U.S. struck Iranian missile assets and doubled down on claims that Iran had violated the ceasefire
2:50
Iran decided to escalate as well, launching a wave of drones and missiles at U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
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According to Ross Harrison, the U.S. shouldn't be surprised by Iran's escalation
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A few days ago, Secretary Rubio of the United States traveled to the Gulf trying to get the Gulf Arab states to enforce the fact that ships would now hug the Omani coast and try to avoid the Iranian side of the coast in order to skirt Iranian control over the strait
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of the strait. And the Iranians interpreted that as basically a flouting of the Article
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5 of the agreement, which was that the Iranians would be in charge of opening up the strait
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So that's what caused the initial attack on a ship. The Iranians claim that any foreign power managing vessels across the strait would pose
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a threat to their national security. Before the war began, ships could freely pass through
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the straits. Now, though, Iran looks to gain handsomely from an effective toll system which
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would undermine years of economic pressure from sanctions. But U.S. Secretary of State Marco
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Rubio has insisted this would be at odds with maritime law. I think the whole world will be
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against any mechanism that charges money to use an international waterway. It's that simple. The
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president's already said it. That's not going to happen. When we mean open the straits, we mean open
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the Straits free in international waterways. So we express that tomorrow I am certain and not only will every country in the Gulf region be supportive probably with the exception of Iran but all the GCC members will be supportive but the whole world will be supportive I know of no country on the planet that supports tolling or a fee for the use of the straits
4:34
That's not going to happen. The president has been abundantly clear. Of course, America is keen to loosen Iran's grip over the strait for other reasons too
4:43
Since the war began in February, Americans have been feeling the impact
4:46
with the average household reportedly spending $750 more on expenses. This is of great concern to Donald Trump
4:56
66% of Americans were against launching the war in the first place
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which doesn't bode well for President Trump's chances ahead of crucial midterm elections in November
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According to Middle East expert Chris Doyle, this is where the Memorandum of Understanding breaks down
5:13
Ultimately, the Iranian leadership has found itself having the whip hand because it knows that it's holding hostage the entirety of the global economy and that President Trump cannot afford to have that strait in any way restricted for much longer
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He needs it open up. He needs it in terms of the midterm elections, the cost of living in the United States, regardless of what he says, it is having an impact on the United States
5:43
And we're not going to get back to pre-war levels for quite some time, regardless of the state of politics between the two sides, because it's going to take a while for those oil and gas refineries, tankers to get moving again
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But Iran is still insisting that it has a right to control the Strait of Hormuz, to make charges as it sees fit
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That is something that the Iranians are insistent upon, that any vessel that goes through the strait will have to register at least with them
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So this is something, of course, that other states don't agree with
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But frankly, I think a lot of economies are not going to have a choice. Iran and the US clearly have diverging interests and therefore definitions of what it means to open the Strait of Hormuz And this is before we consider Israel involvement in the conflict whose operations in Lebanon remain another obstacle to peace
6:45
For some on the Israeli side, like Jonathan Haranoff, diplomacy with Iran is exhausted
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and a military solution could be the only viable way to peace
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There was a lot of premature, I think, excitement over the MOU
7:01
the Memorandum of Understanding. Some people thought that was already a deal. I think the latest tit for tat is a demonstration
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that we're still way away from something like that. But I think it's once again a demonstration
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that the Islamic Republic is not necessarily serious in actually wanting to have peace
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is continuing to be a regional aggressor. And the United States is rightly taking necessary
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steps to defend itself and its troops from any threat posed by the regime. Peace is always
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preferable to war in any situation. Nobody wants prolonged conflict, but there are times
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when you've already exhausted all of your options of diplomacy. It's something that I've seen
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play out at the United Nations again. I hope in almost any other circumstance that the United
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States and Israel would be at peace with its counterparts, but I just don't fundamentally
7:57
think the islamic republic is a partner for peace it's not a partner for peace for um its its
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regional counterparts and it's certainly not a partner for peace in terms of its own people it's
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it's slaughtered its own people in recent months it's it's brutalized them for the past 47 years
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it's not fit it's not designed to to be a peaceful partner which is why i always have these questions
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at the back of my mind of whether these deals, MOUs, are actually going to lead to anything
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or if it's just going to lead to another cycle of violence. If the US and Iran fail to bridge the gap in their visions for the Strait of Hormuz
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the military option becomes increasingly likely. For now, though, diplomacy is trapped in a kind of doom loop
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and a proper deal continues to elude a US president seeking to justify his military venture in the Middle East
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