0:00
Obviously, this is coming, the latest sort of example of political violence from Washington
0:04
something that is no stranger to American democracy, although it has become even more intense and frequent of late
0:10
certainly for the last few decades. But obviously, it's coming with regards to U.K.S. relations at an awkward moment
0:16
because we have, of course, His Majesty the King going over for the 250th anniversary
0:20
of the Declaration of Independence imminently. Do you think this will change the contours at all of that visit
0:25
I think the only thing it'll change, Louis, is it means that the sort of privacy aspect of this visit
0:31
which is already going to be kept well away from the cameras most of the time, or live cameras, live microphones, for obvious reasons, I think we can agree
0:38
will be even more closed down than it would have been. I have to say, dramatic events in Washington
0:44
but completely unsurprising events in Washington. This is one of the most heavily armed countries in the world
0:50
which makes a kind of fetish of firearms and as a long history of attempted and genuine presidential assassination, as you say
0:58
Yeah, not least. I mean, in that very building, there's an attempted presidential assassination
1:02
So it tells you something about the frequency of these things. In terms of I've seen quite a bit of commentary, Andrew, about this idea of this is a big moment for the king's reign
1:12
And it's a big moment for the US and UK relationship and that there are high stakes
1:17
Are there that high stakes on that? And is there much possibility of high reward in the sense that haven't we seen this play out time after time after time with over a decade now with the Trump administration
1:29
First of all, with the late queen, now with the king under multiple UK governments
1:33
There is all this pomp and pageantry. And typically, with regards to the royals, Trump is on his best behavior
1:38
Everyone hails it as a triumph. And two days later, everything goes back to Trump being abnormal and normal services resumed
1:45
Isn that what we going to just see play out again here Lewis I think it rare for me to advise you to be more sceptical and more cynical but I am absolutely on the side of this will be a great big hoo moment
1:57
lots of coverage, lots of back-slapping on the part of the British elite, you know
2:02
how well we've done. Trump loves us after all. He loves the king after all. Fantastic
2:07
And it means absolutely squittal. I think next day, next hour, Trump changes his mind again
2:14
and we're back to where we were. This does not alter Trump's attitude to Keir Starmer or to Britain
2:20
or to the fractured NATO alliance or to the help we did or did not give him with our so-called toys of aircraft carriers
2:28
All of that remains that. I don't think it even changes much about the Falklands. I think the Falklands' threat was something, as it were
2:34
waved in front of our noses by the endless distraction machine, which is the Trump administration
2:40
and which will be whisked away again at the appropriate moment. but not much, frankly, to do with the king's visit
2:46
Obviously, this is coming at a moment for Keir Starmer as well, where he is facing profound domestic political peril
2:53
We're going into yet another week, which is being billed as the biggest week for Keir Starmer since the last one
2:58
How important do you think this week will be, especially, of course, events on Tuesday
3:03
where we will be witness to something that very seldom occurs, in fact, hasn't really occurred before
3:08
We will see this man about which so much has been written, this sort of dual premiership we're told existed between Morgan McSweeney and Keir Starmer
3:15
and he will be in public speaking in a way that we have not heard him before
3:19
How important do you think it will be? Well, what people will find, first of all, is that far from being a great big sweary kind of macho bully
3:29
Morgan McSweeney is a softly spoken, kind of thoughtful, very ytical guy
3:34
I sure he will do his very best to defend the prime minister I think possibly more dangerous for the Prime Minister is the evidence coming before that from Sir Philip Barton the outgoing the previous permanent secretary
3:47
of the Foreign Office and somebody we know very hostile to the idea of appointing Peter
3:52
Mandelson, very defensive of Karen Pearce, Dame Karen Pearce, who was our previous ambassador
3:57
had a very good relationship with Donald Trump. And there are many, many people throughout
4:01
the FCO who think they should just have kept her there. That'll be very interesting. And
4:05
again, if there was pressure put by Downing Street on the Foreign Office to rush this through
4:10
Philip Barton would have been the first person to receive that pressure before he handed over
4:15
on the crucial week to Ollie Robbins. So that'll be an important moment. There's also, of course
4:19
the possible vote in the House of Commons about referring the Prime Minister to the Privileges
4:23
Committee. I would say to everybody listening, calm down about that. The Prime Minister is very
4:27
very unlikely to lose that vote. Again, I think there's something that's got to be frustrating
4:33
for Labour MPs, hasn't there, Andrew, which is that, is there not a case to say that repeatedly
4:39
with regards to this affair in this episode, Keir Starmer continues to compound his position
4:45
which obviously started with what he has now accepted was a poor political judgment
4:49
But he's made it worse for himself by repeatedly anchoring himself and talking about process
4:56
So if he had just owned the fact that this was a political decision and said
4:59
yep, this is a political decision. I wanted it. My advisors thought it would be a good idea. I
5:04
thought it would be a good idea. That's the long and short of it. And I'm sorry about it. But
5:08
instead, he keeps saying things to the commons about due process being followed or no pressure
5:13
whatsoever being applied, burying himself in the process and thereby making the situation and story
5:19
worse where he could have just owned it and drawn a line. I suppose the answer to that is you have
5:25
to say something when you asked questions about process in the commons He has dug himself into a deeper hole You quite right about that I think we have I may be wrong about this but I think in all of these scandals there comes a moment when the great British public just turns away in boredom and a faint sense of disgust about
5:42
the details of the thing. And I suspect, despite the dramas on Tuesday, we have reached that point
5:47
in this scandal. I think the much bigger questions are about the direction of the government
5:52
about economic growth, about resilience in the coming economic storm, about defence
5:57
and the rest of it. And if Labour MPs and former Labour voters are frustrated
6:02
it's about those things much more than it's about the Mandelston scandal. Well, I was going to say, just finally on that
6:07
I mean, that is the truth which is at the heart of this whole affair
6:12
isn't it, Andrew, which is to say that if it were the case that the Prime Minister had been seen by his MPs
6:18
to be commanding the political stage, if the agenda was on the front foot, momentum was there
6:24
then this would be froth. This would be page three, page four, page nine for off, and he would be more easy to dismiss
6:30
But because there appears to be, as far as many of his MPs are concerned, a bit of a vacuum on those matters
6:35
these things appear bigger and loom larger and are a bigger problem for the prime minister
6:40
And I think we have to admit the role of journalism in all of this, Lewis. I mean, I'm one of those people who called time on the Starmer premiership a few weeks ago
6:49
Many, many others have done the same. And in a sense, everybody who's done that is committed, is bound into the idea there must be a change of prime minister
6:57
He must be brought down. And we have to be very, very careful of not becoming, as it were, players or would be players in the drama
7:05
Because I look across the cabinet and there are people manoeuvring and there are people thinking, could it be me and what next
7:10
But by and large, there is still a very strong sense that to plunge the Labour government into a leadership contest
7:17
just as the economic storm from the Iran war breaks over our heads, would be a very, very foolish thing to do
