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Jon Sopel joins Shelagh Fogarty as Trump and Rubio send mixed messages over the US' withdrawal of its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford.
Donald Trump claimed an unidentified threat led to the decision to pull US bombers from RAF Fairford.
However Secretary of State Marco Rubio claims that the withdrawal is not linked to suspected terror plot.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
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0:00
Do we know if he's referring to the original alleged threat or a new one
0:04
So you've got a choice here because Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has said
0:10
no, it was just routine redeployment and we do this from time to time
0:15
I would just say in a choice between Rubio telling the truth and Donald Trump
0:21
my instinct would be to go with Rubio. But the definition of a diplomat is an honest man who lies for his country
0:29
Donald Trump shoots from the hip. And I suspect they did think that there was some kind of threat
0:35
And possibly they looked at what had happened in Russia, where Ukrainian drones had been secreted around various air bases or unleashed and caused billions of pounds worth of damage to a whole host of Russian aircraft
0:52
And I suspect they thought that's a nightmare scenario that they didn't want to have to deal with
0:57
And given what is alleged to have happened at Fairford, perhaps thought once bitten, twice shy. Let's go
1:03
Yeah, well, we don't know what's alleged to have happened at Fairford. So it's kind of like I look, there are plenty of theories
1:10
And it seems that one of the theories that would kind of make sense and cohere with what the police have done is that it was some kind of recce
1:20
And it's very hard to prosecute people for being up to no good. I mean, you know, if they're not, if they're just driving a van with some petrol in the back, yeah, it looks mighty suspicious
1:29
But what is the criminal offence that has been committed? And so I think that, you know, maybe that they felt that there was something going on that may well have Iranian links to it
1:42
There were some useful idiots. I mean, I saw a great phrase, the gig economy warfare
1:48
And this is gig economy warfare where you get some. We saw it with the firebombing of those properties connected to Keir Starmer, didn't we? Exactly
1:55
So you get some, you know, gig economy kids who are up to no good, who are told to go and drive to our area of Fairford and hang around
2:03
and then they see what happens. And maybe it is not waiting for the threat to become greater
2:08
that led the Americans to pull their F-1 bombers out. I had a former Royal Navy captain on yesterday who now a commentator and journalist on defense matters And he said he did a quick check and found that in most air bases here in the uk that have american planes they not there for
2:33
70 of the time the american planes which is quite so mostly they don't they don't stick around for
2:40
long and stay there for long it just felt that there was something that was timing the top well
2:44
it was not just the timing it was the speed with which like that they were gone yeah and uh apparently
2:51
had to have kind of land somewhere else to refuel. So it all sounds like it was done in a hurry
2:56
and that the order had come. I don't know whether the Americans had picked up other intelligence
3:01
We just don't know. I mean, this is still all so murky
3:06
in that we still have had no kind of coherent explanation of what it is that happened the other weekend
3:14
And it's pretty clear, both with this incident and others as well
3:18
internationally and more locally, that we don't get told everything, do we
3:23
Nor should we. No. Nor should we if there's an investigation. For good operational reasons. Yeah, for operational reasons
3:28
and if there's an investigation going on and you want to, you know, I've just read that, you know
3:32
there's been another arrest today of someone. We don't know whether that person
3:37
will be released on bail. But so far there have been no charges brought
3:42
And you do have to kind of think that if the police are releasing people on bail
3:48
and you think that there is a terrorist connection, you don't do that
3:53
They're held on remand. And zooming out a bit to our own main party leaders here
3:59
Andy Burnham and Kemi Bader-Knot, Kemi talking about defence this morning with Nick Ferrari
4:05
It seems to me there's a bit of a battle royal brewing there over who's best at defence
4:11
because Kemi Bader-Knot, before Parliament stopped for the conference season, She went in on defence two weeks on the trot in PMQs. She sees it as a weak spot for Labour, doesn't she
4:23
I think she sees it as a weak spot in the macro sense, although, you know, a lot of the biggest cuts in defence spending have taken place under the Conservatives and in successive years have kind of, you know, ploughed less and less into defence
4:37
So I think that is a vulnerability. But I also think she thinks there's a that, you know, there is the question of defence and then there is the political opportunity
4:45
And the political opportunity is there because John Healy brings down Keir Starmer as defence secretary because Britain wasn spending three percent of GDP on defence He becomes the chancellor of the Exchequer and says oh can find the money
5:00
Oh, dear. And you think, so hang on, how sincere was. And I think that that is a real vulnerability for Labour
5:07
And until such times, you know, they've said, oh, we'll spend three point five percent on defence by 2035
5:13
When's that going to happen? Is that all going to happen in 2034 by some absolute miracle
5:18
And so you are left with the feeling that Labour have kicked this can down the road
5:24
And reports in The Times this morning that they're going to do so again. Yeah, exactly. Exactly
5:28
Yeah. And even last week when we spoke with Andy Burnham himself at the Labour Party conference
5:34
he reiterated those 3%, 3.5% amounts or percentages. But we're still left wondering what and how
5:43
Well, look, we've got the budget in three weeks time. I suspect we won't hear much about the defence
5:48
Then we've got the 10-year plan in November. So maybe then we will have a clearer picture
5:54
of how the government is going to reach these targets. And, you know, when there is that doubt
6:01
Kemi Badenok, the leader of the opposition, is probably very sensible to try and just prise open gaps
6:06
between, you know, various ministers and what they've promised and what they're saying
6:10
And I'm always very conscious on air not to frighten people, you know, not to want people listening to panic
6:15
But I'm increasingly hearing and thinking and reading about, you know, the various threats we face
6:23
And, you know, if you know even a little bit of your history, you know, there's always a point, isn't there, where things tip into something much bigger
6:29
And we literally don't know how close that is or isn't, do we
6:34
Maybe we can't. You know, and would historians looking back at the origins of the First World War know, would they agree what the trigger point
6:42
I mean, they know that, you know, the murder of Archduke Ferdinand, all the rest of it
6:47
But, you know, there would have been a lead up to that. Imperceptible moments, perhaps
6:51
And you just feel that the hybrid warfare, the kind of incursions into airspace, the things that have been happening around cyber and all the rest of it
7:02
Will we look back and say, well, that was the starting point? Or is it Russia just trying to flex its muscles because it fearful about what is happening in Ukraine and wants Europeans to think twice about continuing to support Ukraine Yeah And I spoke I don know whether you were able to hear much of my conversation with Andrew Badger former US Defense Intelligence Agency officer just a few minutes ago His sense of things is that the UK and Brussels are not properly listening to Putin the messages
7:33
he's sending in the form of that sort of grey zone hybrid warfare. They're not really hearing
7:38
what it is he's saying. What do you think of that? I mean, look, I think it's so hard
7:43
to, you know, there will be defence ysts, there will be MI6 and CIA
7:49
who've got operatives in Moscow trying to work out that very thing
7:55
Is it that he wants to intimidate Europe so that it peels away from supporting Ukraine
8:03
because support from Europe has been pretty solid until now and he's already saying
8:08
look, we're changing our targeting. If you keep your diplomats, If you keep your diplomats in Kiev, we're coming, you know, they're in lethal danger
8:18
And, you know, Mertz, the German chancellor, went last weekend as if to say, don't care, you're not going to intimidate us
8:25
Or is it real or is it real that they are looking to expand? I think he is right. Surely, you know, not to panic, but to take seriously what is being said
8:37
And we have to accept that, you know, when we look back to those glory days of the coming down of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War and the end of the Warsaw Pact
8:47
And we thought that they would be able to, you know, turn these swords into plowshares and all the rest of it
8:53
The peace dividend has gone now. And we need to be ready for something different
8:57
And that's not to be alarmist or panicking, but it is just to say this is the reality
9:02
And actually, if you start, say, at 1989, in that point you've just made, it took 30 years almost, didn't it, for it to fully collapse
9:11
Yeah. I mean, the peace dividend. The peace dividend. It was 2022. I mean, but, you know, maybe then historians will say, well, it wasn't 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine
9:19
It was what the Russians did earlier and Crimea. And, you know, why didn't anyone react then or in Georgia when, you know, in 2012
9:28
There are various points along the way where maybe with historical hindsight, you say, oh, yeah, we should have kind of put our foot down earlier
9:37
You know, of course, if you're a diplomat, a politician, you're hoping that the world will not take you to war
9:43
But you need to be ready in case things don't turn out like that
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