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The US CIA director flew to Moscow on Tuesday for meetings with Russian officials, according to American media reports.
The visit would be the first known visit to the Russian capital by a US spy chief since John Ratcliffe's predecessor, William Burns, held talks with Vladimir Putin in November 2021.
About three months after that meeting, the Russian president launched Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Lewis Goodall joins Shelagh Fogarty to dissect the trip.
Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp
#shelaghfogarty #lewisgoodall #russia #putin #trump #cia #ukraine #europe #LBC
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0:00
Let's talk about this CIA chief
0:02
Reportedly, is he heading to Russia for talks? No, he's been. This was earlier in the week
0:09
and it's generated a great deal of interest. So for people who don't know him
0:14
which is actually most people, and this is the idea, because he is basically the head
0:19
of the most important American spy agency, the CIA. So he's not someone who likes to keep a terribly high profile
0:26
This is John Ratcliffe, head of the CIA. surprising much of the world and many defence and security ysts
0:34
by making an unexpected, previously unannounced visit to Moscow. This is not something that CIA directors do every day of the week
0:44
or indeed every year, far from it. Turns up in Moscow, doesn't say why he's there, what he's doing
0:50
Neither Moscow nor Washington commented at the time as to what he's doing there
0:54
nor with whom he is meeting, although it is speculated that he may have met President Putin himself
1:01
or certainly people very high up in his regime. And it has been briefed to the Wall Street Journal
1:08
that the director of the CIA warned Putin personally against an attack on NATO in that secret meeting
1:17
because a recent US intelligence assessment had suggested that Russia could strike NATO's eastern flank
1:23
within weeks to test the alliance's resolve. Now, the reason why, I mean, that's briefing to the Wall Street Journal
1:31
which has been denied by the White House. We can talk about that in a second. So we're talking about countries like Poland when we talk about..
1:35
Indeed so, the eastern frontier or the Baltic states, perhaps, Finland. And it is..
1:40
One of the reasons that it has set alarm bells ringing is when was the last time that a director of the CIA turned up in Moscow
1:49
apparently to give a warning to the Russian president? Well, it was in late 2021 when Biden
1:54
President Biden's then CIA director, William Burns, warned, turned up in Moscow, to warn Vladimir Putin that the Americans knew what he was planning
2:02
to do in launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to warn him to not do it. Now
2:08
of course, that warning was not heeded. But the fact that that was the last time the CIA director
2:12
turned up in Moscow, and that was for the reason has obviously got many people speculating as to
2:17
whether the Americans may have some intelligence, which suggests that Vladimir Putin is planning to
2:23
do something to test the resolve of the NATO alliance. Since Andy Burnham went and agreed
2:30
that the UK would give Ukraine blueprints for missiles and potentially support them in the
2:36
production of their own missiles, that gives Ukraine a freer hand, I suppose, doesn't it
2:40
to attack Russia inside Russia. Again, so far worth emphasising it's sort of strategic and
2:47
military installations, isn't it, rather than civilian ones, unlike the Russian fire
2:53
Is Britain I presume Britain is looking very closely at that visit and finding out as much as they can about what was said because we starting to hear more and more noise if you can call it that about an attack of some sort on Britain
3:08
Indeed so, and we are, admittedly, things have not been rosy for some time
3:13
for over a decade, but we are perhaps under dear in terms of Anglo-Russian relations
3:18
I mean, we've had Moscow actively warning that Russia considers Britain essentially to be a combatant in this war
3:24
not least because we are responsible for the production and design of some of the weapons that Kiev is using against Moscow
3:31
We've just learned in the last week or so that the Russian ambassador has left the country
3:35
and has not been reappointed, which is a sort of classic sign of basically a country
3:39
which is no longer much interested in developing any kind of relations with the other country
3:43
And so, yes, this is something that we'll be eyeing nervously. And, of course, British security officials have long been concerned
3:48
that Vladimir Putin might choose this moment or a moment in the not so distant future to try and test NATO
3:54
Why would he be doing that now? Because, of course, there will be people that are watching or listening to this thinking
3:58
well, hang on a minute, Vladimir Putin hasn't even been able to achieve his military aims in Ukraine
4:03
So why would he decide to launch a second front against NATO
4:07
with a full might and arsenal of NATO? Well, part of it is precisely because he's, if not losing
4:12
he's certainly not winning in Ukraine. And in fact, if anything, there have been signs that despite the fact that Donald Trump about over a year ago
4:17
said to Ukraine that you've got no cards, through stunning resolve and ingenuity
4:22
and, of course, support from the West. They have been actually, if not turning the tide
4:28
then certainly keeping the Russians at bay and taking some territory back indeed. And pushing further, I don't mean territorially pushing
4:33
but pushing further inside Russia with their missile attacks. And Vladimir Putin, who has transformed the entire
4:40
sustained extraordinary losses in terms of loss of life. There'll barely be a town or village in Russia
4:45
that has been untouched with some young man not been killed or wounded or mutilated
4:49
as a result of basically being in the meat grinder that is the Ukraine war
4:55
All those mothers, all those fathers, all those siblings, you know, losing young men
5:01
And he's transformed the Russian economy into a war economy, a siege economy
5:06
for all intents and purposes. So many young men are currently in the army. He actually fears ending the war
5:11
and demobilising these young men. We've got a long history, long, long history
5:15
of returning armies, particularly from attempts at conquest or wars which have not got terribly well
5:21
you demob them and guess what? You've got a lot of very bored young men who know how to use weapons
5:25
and that's something that Vladimir Putin fears. And it isn't just that either. If this is a way, if it is true, which is often said
5:30
and even with the state-controlled media in Russia now, you're seeing more public criticism of Vladimir Putin
5:37
To try and distract, to try and roll the dice, if Putin is feeling desperate
5:43
then you combine that with what he probably senses as a moment of maximal weakness in the West
5:48
Why? Well, Trump, obviously, we can't be absolutely assured, would honour NATO obligations
5:53
America is currently dragged down in the sinkhole that is the Iran war used up a lot of its own munitions and its own strategic reserves with regards to that We got a situation where Europe has been rearming
6:06
but not quickly enough to be able to truly see off potentially the Russian bear
6:10
So he's got plenty to play with. There is a worry that this, he might conclude that this is the moment to roll the dice. And
6:16
it is interesting, I suppose, if it is true that the CIA director went over to Russia to warn them
6:22
not to might give some heart to European capitals who, of course, have been worried that when push
6:26
came to shove, Washington wouldn't be there, that they still have some strategic interest. And again, it's hard to know whether this is just sabre-rattling noise or whether it's
6:34
real or an indication of something real. Maria Zakharova, Russia's foreign ministry
6:39
spokesperson, saying today that Britain and France were, quotes, playing with fire
6:43
Indeed so. And Russia have been darkening the rhetoric for a long time now. But of course
6:49
we shouldn't forget that if Russia did decide to do something against us, it wouldn't be the first
6:57
time. Let us not forget that Russia used chemical weapons on the streets of a UK city. And they
7:05
chose to do that apparently without any concern for the potential retaliation or the potential
7:10
cost or price that they might pay. So, you know, this isn't a new thing. And we shouldn't be
7:15
under the illusion that somehow our action in Ukraine or our supporting Ukraine is putting us
7:21
in the crosshairs. We would have been in the crosshairs anywhere. As far as we're concerned, or as they're concerned, you know, Britain is pretty much public enemy number one with regards
7:28
to, you know, hostile states as they see it at the moment. There are, of course, other options
7:32
because of Ukraine, but also over this long deteriorating relationship. There are other options as well. Because Putin has been, there is speculation that Putin is
7:43
getting more and more desperate. There's no sign of victory in sight. This is a war of his own
7:47
choosing that has gone on now for longer than the First World War. Again, treasure and blood
7:53
expended in unbelievable volumes. And that's if you're counting from 2022. Two, exactly. It's gone on for even longer. Other points of concern, which there has been
8:03
speculation that perhaps Mr. Ratcliffe went over to discuss in this eight-hour meeting might be
8:08
the use of a strategic nuclear weapon or a tactical nuclear weapon in the Ukraine war
8:12
or stepping up the use of weapons to target more civilian sites, more civilian infrastructure
8:20
and so on, which, of course, Putin has been doing more and more of. So there's a lot of speculation about this. Trump himself, for what it's worth, in an interview with Glenn Beck
8:28
has said, the former Fox News host, has downplayed all of this. He said that this was a semi-routine visit
8:34
and that it wasn't about warning him about invading Europe or anything like that
8:38
But nonetheless, the fact that it's so unusual, the fact it went on, it was unannounced
8:42
it lasted whatever they were talking about for eight hours. They warned the Ukrainians that he was coming so they could stop their interceptions
8:49
stop their missile attacks while the CIA director was there. It has certainly generated a great deal of interest because it is such an unusual event And worth saying that China will be if not sitting back certainly watching on They always watching They always watching on But it an important relationship that isn it The China relationship It is And Russia in many ways has become
9:09
a sort of economic and political vassal state of the Chinese. They're hugely reliant
9:15
not only on Chinese military support, but also hardware and so on, and to some extent
9:19
armaments as well. So, you know, Russia is not in a strong position. It's not in a strong position
9:24
But it is true to say that it's now devoted between, I think, 14, 50 percent of its entire GDP on the war efforts
9:30
Its economy has been damaged and wounded by Western sanctions, but it has survived them
9:35
And it is true to say that Vladimir Putin is in a situation where his risk appetite may have increased
9:42
And that is doubt that's going to get Western intelligence officials rather worried. And can I, before you go, just lighten the load a little bit or lighten the tone a little bit
9:49
It's hard not to lighten it. I was thinking that, yes, this is all a bit terrifying, isn't it
9:52
you know you often talk about the young and the older people and we're going to
9:59
do more of it a little later in the year. Well when we're all on the eastern front
10:03
we can all get in there together can't we? But you know
10:07
have you ever been or your programme or your work ever been mentioned in a
10:11
Stormzy lyric? Just asking for an old lady. If it hadn't it should have been. It's a terrible
10:17
oversight if not. Mine has. Yours has. Yeah. Yours has. What do you mean yours has
10:21
I think mine was mentioned in something Celine Dion did once, actually. What was that
10:26
Think twice. Think twice. It was all about me. Yeah, yeah, yeah
10:30
That was all about me. My programme is literally mentioned in a Stormzy lyric. Well, there you go
10:34
First things first. That was a very long run-up at a humble brag, wasn't it
10:38
Not even at humble. Well, it gets better. Oh, right. Subsequently, in Glastonbury, I'm at home in my mum's house
10:44
just company for my mum one evening, and I get a text from somebody at Glastonbury saying
10:49
in the audience at Glastonbury, a friend of mine saying, you're on the main stage at Glastonbury and I said what I'm not not for the first time I'm
10:54
watching Casualty with my mum Stormzy had used video of our interview which which one uh which
11:01
interview or which yeah which interview uh we didn't we just played a bit of it earlier it was
11:05
in 2017 it was an interview about whether grime music uh feeds into crime gang crime and uh he
11:11
took against a caller and he wrote a song about it I see isn't great isn't that great that's very
11:17
very good. You see, you don't realise how cool I am. I don't, what's Stormzy's real name
11:21
Oh, I used to know it. Oh, I've looked it up. Go on. Michael Ebenezer Kwajo Omari Owo O'Junior
11:27
Yeah, I knew it was Michael. I got that right in a news quiz a few years back. Well, you clearly... I've forgotten it since
11:32
You've forgotten it since. So it's a good thing that I've reminded you live on the radio. Don't distract
11:36
Such is the unlikely event that you're in a future quiz and the same question comes up, which could happen
11:41
quite frankly, because these quiz masters are very unimaginative. Don't distract from the fact that
11:45
Stormzy... I'm not trying to distract. Oh, Stormzy, by the way he then the day after glastonbury described me on twitter oh he's from norbury
11:50
oh you're g she's my g well celine did the same with me i don't believe you're in a celine deal
11:56
lyric for a second well you just look it up no it's no i'm not in it it's just about me it's not
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