0:00
The government might be distracted by
0:02
Peter Mandlesson's scandal, but don't
0:04
forget they have always maintained that
0:06
growth is their number one mission.
0:08
Well, on his visit to China alongside
0:10
the prime minister, the business
0:11
secretary Peter Kyle said, "We are in
0:13
China where growth is 5%. I was in
0:16
America a couple of weeks ago where it's
0:17
4.3%." And he added, "Why the hell is
0:20
Britain at 1%." Well, we could give him
0:23
credit for at least asking the question,
0:25
even if we're confident that he won't
0:27
like the answers. The National Institute
0:30
for Social and Economic Research today
0:32
publishes analysis showing recent
0:35
government policies have added a
0:37
whopping 7% to the cost of hiring a
0:40
graduate or an entry-level recruit. The
0:42
researchers said the move was dampening
0:45
labor market dynamism. That's right.
0:47
Let's dampen the dynamism. Might the
0:49
business secretary consider the effects
0:50
of all this? Might he also look at the
0:52
UK's increasing number of unemployed?
0:54
It's 5.1% by the way, forecast to hit
0:57
5.4%. 4% this year. Might he put two and
1:00
two together? Now, that think tank says
1:02
GDP growth will be 1.4% this year, which
1:05
is much more optimistic than other
1:07
forecasters, though they say it's
1:09
powered largely by government spending.
1:11
Things get worse after that, with growth
1:13
expected to slump to 1.3% in 2027 and a
1:16
miserable 1.1% the year after that. Now,
1:19
forecasts can be wrong. They often are,
1:21
and we better hope that these ones prove
1:23
to be too pessimistic. As for Peter
1:25
Kyle, he ought to have spent the flight
1:27
back from China reading a new report
1:28
from the Adam Smith Institute. It's
1:30
called the growth agenda. The findings
1:32
appear to come as a perfect answer to
1:34
his why are we only at 1% question. In a
1:37
nutshell, the researchers say the
1:39
problems are the UK's extraordinarily
1:41
high industrial energy costs compounded
1:43
by the rush to net zero, a complicated
1:45
and inefficient tax system, and a
1:47
planning system that stands as the
1:49
single most damaging barrier to economic
1:52
growth. The detail of their critique and
1:54
the clarity of their policy
1:55
recommendations mean the report should
1:57
be required reading for all MPs. It's
2:00
not too late to prove these economic
2:02
forecasters wrong, but time is running
2:04
out and we can't afford for ministers to
2:06
stand around scratching their heads.
