0:00
The Sabres did the right thing. But, I
0:02
can make the argument that Alex Tuch
0:05
actually made a poor financial decision.
0:10
Locking up Zach Benson at 7 and 1/2
0:13
million dollars a year at his age is
0:17
something you got to do if you're the
0:20
For Alex Tuch, I think he may have left
0:30
>> Let's just compare these two numbers.
0:33
Zach Benson's 21 years old, they gave
0:35
him 7 years. Alex Tuch is 30 years old,
0:39
Capitals gave him 8 years. Would you
0:42
rather bank on the next seven of Zach
0:45
Benson, full all seven, or the next
0:49
eight of Alex Tuch? The answer is a
0:52
Which is why especially getting a lower
0:54
rate for Benson means it's the right
1:01
I think would ever begrudge
1:04
Alex Tuch because of his role in
1:08
snapping the drought.
1:10
Tuch grew up a Sabres fan. It's a great
1:13
story. He wanted to play for the
1:15
franchise. He was clearly a leader when
1:17
they needed a leader most. There's no
1:20
doubt they don't get back to the
1:21
playoffs unless he is playing a major
1:23
part. All of that means it's easy to
1:26
root for Alex Tuch and it's easy not to
1:29
have bad feelings or resentment if he's
1:33
going to go out and just get more money
1:35
than the Sabres are going to offer. And
1:37
frankly, the Sabres just can't in their
1:40
right minds, with where they are in
1:43
their evolution, give a 30-year-old
1:46
player 10 and 1/2 million dollars per
1:49
year for the next 8 years.
1:53
Here's why I I wonder if it's a poor
1:56
financial decision for Alex Tuck. You
1:59
look at that number and go, well, you're
2:01
going to leave for 8 years at 10 and a
2:03
half million dollars per, why not? And a
2:06
bulk of that is in signing bonuses, so
2:08
yeah, you got to go. But I'm just going
2:10
to bring this to your attention.
2:12
Hey, a reminder to subscribe to the
2:14
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would be a homegrown guy. Now, granted,
2:29
he's from Syracuse, but it
2:31
a New York state guy who grew up a
2:34
Sabres fan in a Sabres town and
2:38
ultimately could win a Stanley Cup with
2:41
the Buffalo Sabres. Because if you look
2:44
at the Capitals' potential and you look
2:45
at the Sabres' potential, I would say
2:47
right now, you'd put your money on
2:49
Buffalo, not Washington. It was the
2:52
Sabres who surged to more than 100
2:54
points last season and won the Atlantic
2:57
division and won a round of the
2:59
postseason and got to game seven of the
3:01
second round. And a bounce of the puck
3:03
here or there and they'd be in the
3:05
conference finals. It were the It was
3:06
the Capitals who did not make the
3:10
You're a Capitals organization waiting
3:12
to see what Alexander Ovechkin does. I
3:16
think the future is not only brighter
3:18
with the Sabres, but also the reality
3:20
that here and the now is brighter with
3:21
the Sabres. And I bring this up because
3:25
Fanatics Fest is coming up in New York
3:29
And at Fanatics Fest, they have
3:31
all these great athletes come by and and
3:33
you can meet and greet them and there's
3:35
a there's a cost for taking photos and
3:38
they just released the cost of taking
3:40
pictures with the world champion New
3:44
And you know how much Jalen Brunson
3:47
commands for one photo at Fanatics Fest?
3:54
nearly a thousand dollars. $1,000. It's
3:58
like 980 bucks or something like that.
4:00
If you want to take a photo with Jalen
4:03
Now, the NBA is going to be bigger than
4:06
the NHL. What the the Knicks just
4:08
accomplished, Jalen Brunson is their
4:10
everything, and that that guy kind of
4:12
can't exist in the NHL. It's not the
4:14
same thing. Alex Tuch wouldn't play that
4:16
role of the do everything clutch guy,
4:20
think about the haul that Jalen Brunson
4:23
is going to pull in simply by virtue of
4:25
being the main Nick that broke the
4:31
He will make that day at Fanatics Fest
4:34
if 500 people spend the thousand dollars
4:37
half a million dollars that day for
4:39
about an hour of work. Now, granted,
4:41
Fanatics is going to take their cut, but
4:43
let's just round that thing and and say
4:45
he's going to make 300, 400,000 dollars
4:50
for an hour's worth of taking photos,
4:52
simply for his role in breaking a
4:54
championship drought.
4:56
What would Alex Tuch's value be for the
5:01
if he won a Stanley Cup with the Buffalo
5:04
Being a guy that grew up a Sabres fan.
5:08
Now, he could win a Stanley Cup in
5:10
Washington, but what is that value?
5:13
The fact is, if you are Mark Messier of
5:17
the '94 Rangers, if you are a LeBron of
5:19
the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, if you are
5:23
the man or one of the men who break a
5:26
significant curse, break a significant
5:29
jinx or drought, think David Ortiz of
5:31
the '04 Red Sox, you live forever making
5:35
Forever. And it's really good money
5:38
nowadays. Really, really good, as
5:40
evidenced by Fanatics Fest.
5:46
the Sabres were a million dollars apart
5:52
Instead, he took the the money in
5:55
Over 8 years, that's $8 million. I
5:58
guarantee it. You win a Stanley Cup in
6:00
Buffalo, you'll make that $8 million
6:03
back in endorsements for the rest of
6:04
your life. Look, all the guys from the
6:06
'90s Bills live forever with
6:09
endorsements and media roles, etc., and
6:11
and appearance fees. And those guys
6:13
didn't win a championship, and that was
6:15
30 years ago now, plus.
6:18
You win a title today
6:20
in a city like In a city like Buffalo or
6:23
Boston or New York or Philly, Chicago,
6:27
you win in a place like that, Cleveland,
6:31
you live forever. It's immortal. And
6:34
look, if the first team that wins a
6:36
championship in Buffalo is going to be
6:38
the Sabres and win a Stanley Cup, that
6:41
team, forget what the party's going to
6:43
be like, talk about living forever on
6:45
endorsements. So, in that way, I I don't
6:48
know if taking every last cent is worth
6:50
it for Alex Tuch. I mean, look, when I
6:52
was younger, I could make decisions
6:54
based on fit and on feel in my career
6:59
and where I thought the best role was
7:00
going to be. When I had a family and and
7:03
got married and had two kids, I started
7:05
thinking about guaranteed money and
7:07
security for the family. So, I
7:08
understand that, but I do think there's
7:10
something to be said for doing it in
7:13
Buffalo, and I think the reason is the
7:15
Sabres are closer, in my estimation, to
7:17
win a Stanley Cup than the Capitals are.
7:21
Number two, when it comes to Zach Benson
7:25
it's pretty obvious at 30 years old,
7:29
you're going to get the best of Alex
7:31
Tuch over the next two seasons.
7:33
For Zach Benson, you might not get the
7:37
best of Benson until two seasons from
7:40
now. So, think about your value of those
7:44
One is going to consistently decrease
7:47
over the next 8 years. One will probably
7:50
in value increase over the next 7 years
7:54
because there's going to be a point in
7:55
time in the not-so-distant future
7:57
where Zach Benson's one of the two or
8:00
three most important people play pieces,
8:03
players on the Sabres. And it is
8:06
at some point in the near future he's
8:08
the most important piece of the puzzle
8:12
You will have him at that rate, 7 and
8:14
1/2 million dollars a year when he
8:17
finally surges there. That could be next
8:19
season, could be two seasons from now,
8:20
but I would say within three seasons
8:22
from now Zach Benson will be one of the
8:25
two or three most important pieces of
8:29
By that time, two or three years from
8:33
is when you're going to see that steep
8:34
decline happening for Alex Tuch. We had
8:38
Shayna Goldman on Sabres and Six two
8:41
weeks ago. She's a hockey writer for The
8:43
Athletic, and she wrote a piece grading
8:46
this deal for the Washington Capitals,
8:48
and ultimately she gave them a B- minus,
8:52
Quote, "The 10 and 1/2 million-dollar
8:53
cap hit is a massive gamble."
8:57
She said, "Signing a contract like that
8:59
could be a cap anchor in the later
9:03
Which isn't exactly the most promising
9:04
start to a playoff window for the
9:08
As she puts in here, "The risk is not
9:11
just that Tuch's stock is down after an
9:14
underwhelming second-round playoff
9:17
but he projects to be worth about 8.4
9:20
million dollars a year on average over
9:22
the next four seasons. So, you're
9:23
already overpaying him by 2 million
9:25
dollars a year over the next four years
9:27
by this stats and data.
9:29
But his market value projects to dip
9:31
below the 6 million-dollar mark in the
9:34
last three years of the deal.
9:39
most data and most experts around the
9:44
he will significantly dip in terms of
9:46
his production in his mid-30s and
9:49
comparisons to like Rick Nash.
9:53
Do you want to be on the hook for 10 and
9:55
1/2 million dollars per year? Now,
9:57
granted that the cap is growing,
9:59
but 10 and 1/2 million dollars a year
10:07
The answer is absolutely not.
10:09
And if it was going to have to be a win
10:11
right now proposition for the Sabres,
10:14
maybe you could make that argument. But
10:17
the reality is that's not the truth. The
10:19
truth is this is the start of a
10:22
hypothetical window opening up. And
10:26
while Tuck was an amazing piece to get
10:31
going forward, you just can't afford
10:33
that type of financial investment.
10:38
And Shayna ends off with
10:41
right now, he's an interesting fit for
10:44
the Capitals, but the big picture raises
10:48
a lot of red flags. And I think that's
10:51
absolutely the way that uh is a
10:53
realistic way of looking at things. So,
10:56
I think Kevyn Adams did the right thing
10:57
here and Alex Tuck is on his way to the
11:00
Washington Capitals and so long and
11:02
happy trails. But the big thing is you
11:04
get Zach Benson locked up right now at
11:08
and that feels like a deal that's going
11:10
to age really, really well versus a Tuck
11:13
deal that would have aged really, really
11:16
Thanks for watching everybody.
11:17
Appreciate it as always. As I mentioned
11:19
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draft as well. We've had a lot of
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breakdowns. Scott Wheeler from The
11:32
Athletic as well as Shayna Goldman as I
11:35
mentioned from The Athletic and looking
11:36
ahead to Friday's draft and as always we
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