Up next in 10
Shelagh Fogarty is joined by Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA operations officer, who co-hosts the Global podcast The Crisis Room, to discuss Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Trump will meet Putin for talks that could pave the way for a peace solution between Russia and Ukraine.
But Polymeropoulos warns that the meeting is built on the false premise that Putin wants peace, noting the Russian leader still denies Ukraine’s sovereignty and seeks territorial gains.
He stresses the US strategy should prioritise a ceasefire with security guarantees, but doubts Trump’s preparedness, highlighting fears of manipulation by Putin.
Overall, Polymeropoulos doubts the summit will yield meaningful progress.
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But Mark Polymeropoulos joins me, a highly decorated former CIA operations officer who
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specialised in counterterrorism, the Middle East, South Asia, and now co-hosts, amongst other things
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the global podcast The Crisis Room alongside Amber Rudd and Mark Urban. And if you're interested in
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international affairs, you shouldn't be missing that podcast. Mark, thank you for joining me today
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Thanks for having me on. So this vision of greater Russia that Hillary Clinton alluded to in that clip we just played
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there. How deep does that run in Putin? Well, this is kind of Putin's state of being. I mean
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he's talked very often about how ultimately the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest
0:37
catastrophe that ever happened. And so I think he does not believe Ukraine is a country. He
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certainly has no respect for President Zelensky. And, you know, we talked about, you know, being
0:47
hopeful for the Alaska summit, but hope is not a strategy. And the entire summit is based on a
0:53
false premise that Putin wants to deal. Remember, the U.S. special envoy went and met with Putin
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A lot of confusion reigned after that, thinking that Putin was ready to deal. And the fact is
1:02
he's not. And so we're going back to this unorthodox style of President Trump. And he's
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kind of winging it. As Fiona Hill said on our podcast several hours ago, you know
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there's no PrEP involved here. This is an odd time. And I think the world is holding its breath
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let's let's talk about strategy then rather than hope um what should the strategy be
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well the strategy from uh the u.s and again ordinarily there's there's weeks if not months
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that go into summit preparation there'll be murder boards and briefing books that the u.s
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strategy should be very clear is to get a ceasefire um and then uh convince somehow putin that security
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guarantees is the only way for there to be any cessation of the conflict um but again we don't
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know what Trump is going to do. He's going to have these pieces of paper in front of him. But again
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Vladimir Putin, the old wily intelligence officer, is certainly going to try to manipulate him. But
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at a bare minimum, ceasefire first. There will be some talk of territorial concessions in some way
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but it has to be involving security guarantees. And frankly, this is where the UK and Europe are
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going to play a very strong role, too. The question is whether Putin will agree to that. Come on to the UK and Europe in a moment if I may Zelensky on his absence from these talks has said decisions I quoting him now decisions in my absence are meaningless That not quite true is it Because these are two very powerful men that he dealing with
2:28
Right. And of course, Zelensky is in a tough position here because what you have is and this is what Putin wants is, you know, the two great superpowers deciding the world
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It should not be this way, of course. I mean, you know, Russia has the GDP the size of Texas
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It's a gas station with, you know, with nuclear weapons. But Putin is getting his wish, which is to be on the world stage
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And hopefully Donald Trump will keep, of course, Ukraine's interests and Europe's interests in mind here
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But Zelensky is watching quite nervously, particularly because, you know, Trump for a period of weeks
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and I think we were all certainly emboldened by this, was taking a tougher line on Putin
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Remember, he okayed this notion of the U.S. selling weapons to NATO European allies
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who then pass them on to Ukraine. But then in the last, what, 48, 72 hours
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he starts to waver again. He starts talking about cooperation with Russia, that Zelensky is maybe not the greatest partner
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And so Zelensky and Ukrainians are very nervous. Now, the UK and Europe have done a good job
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in trying to prep Trump, but which Trump is going to show up? I mean, nobody knows
3:30
And that's the huge question as he's actually getting on Air Force One right now
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to fly to Anchorage. I was interested listening to our own UK Defence Secretary
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John Healy, this morning, talking about various permutations various options you know things that may be the outcome
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from today and down the line he said if there's a ceasefire and that would be good if there's a
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ceasefire then UK and European boots could be on the ground would likely be on the ground to
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reassure Ukraine and to secure safe skies safe seas strengthen their forces as well saying that
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the strongest defenses are prepared and functioning Ukrainian military so they can defend themselves
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That's all well and good, I suppose, until if until Putin decides he's going to break the ceasefire
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And then you have European, UK, French, German, whoever boots on the ground
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Well, I think you're right. You know, you don't put put forces into harm's way without
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being willing to use them. And Russia has a very poor history, Putin in particular, of
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upholding any agreements In fact he doesn do that ever And so when you put European UK European forces on the ground there has to be with the notion of that they may be used
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given Russia's history. And look, I welcome that statement. I think that is exactly what's needed
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I would hope, I'm not sure, but I would hope the US in some fashion can provide some type
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of air power, at least intelligence support in terms of security guarantees. But again
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We don't know what Putin is going to agree with. And frankly, that's that was one of Putin's red lines as well
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I mean, the fundamentals, you know, that would be required for a peace agreement are really not there
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I guess the worry is Trump goes and just for, you know, for the sake and Hillary Clinton noted, you know, his desperate need for a requirement in his mind for a Nobel Peace Prize
5:22
You know, a bad piece is going to be much worse than anything else. But the fear I think we all have is that is this press conference in which everyone has post-traumatic stress from 2018 in Helsinki when we remember Trump sided with Putin in terms of whether Russia interfered in the U.S. election
5:39
So what is he going to say? What's Trump going to say in the press conference after after Putin has kind of buttered him up
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And I think that's what everyone is going to be looking to as well. The modalities of this are interesting. They do the one on one. Then they have a working lunch in which hopefully everything is cleaned up
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And then the press conference. And nobody's poisoned. Right, right, nobody's poisoned
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But, you know, there's no apolitical foreign policy professionals I know in the UK or the US who are not holding their breath right now
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I'm a bit nervous about what's to come. I might be getting ahead of myself here with this question
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but it is something that Zelensky alluded to the other day after those talks with EU leaders
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Russia can have no veto over our plans to join NATO, our ambitions to join NATO
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How realistic is that from Zelensky? It's not realistic at all. Zelensky is right. I mean, I would like to see Ukraine join NATO
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assuming they adhere to all the conditions to do so. But this is the red line for Putin
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I mean, I think there is no way, in my view, that Putin will ever agree to this
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Is there some type of compromise that can be reached I don know because it seems to me again this is the Ukrainian fear that they need to have some secure means to protect themselves in the future Because you know even with an agreement i think everyone uh notion is that putin is just going to you know rearm um rest and recuperation to do this again several years down the road so being in in nato is a is a
7:10
very big deal i just don't think putin is ever going to agree to this and again these are
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fundamentals that are going to be very hard to overcome and if if he doesn't agree if if this is
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not a fruitful set of talks, which is more than likely, isn't it? Or it's certainly feasible
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The next question, I suppose, to Donald Trump is, are you prepared to tighten the screw
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in terms of sanctions, in terms of military support? Are you prepared to do that
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even in terms of using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine? Those are the three big questions
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aren't they? These are the questions. And, you know, there's so many things that are on the table
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right now that both the U.S. and Europe could do. And they've been reluctant to go forward. I mean
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you know, you can't make these threats without coming through. And so, you know, there's sanctions
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packages that exist in the U.S. Congress that could be voted on very quickly. Of course, there's
8:03
also the notion of supplying Ukraine with even more military assistance. I mean, to get Russia
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to come to the table, there's a pretty clear path involving sanctions and kind of an infusion
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a great infusion of military aid. But Trump has been very reluctant to do this. I mean
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it's like the whole notion with the tariffs. Everything gets kicked down the road. And Europe
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has followed, frankly, the United States lead. So this is going to be, I think, a seminal moment
8:27
Odds are that there's not going to be any agreement now. But, you know, is Putin going to do enough
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to assuage Trump to not take that step in actually pushing, putting pressure on Putin? And I think
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a lot of us would like to see that pressure. I think that's the only way that we get to any
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eventual agreement. But Trump has been reluctant to do so. And Europe has then been very reluctant
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to take its own actions, such as freezing assets and others. So let's see what happens, how this is
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kind of spun. I think there's going to be a lot of political spin on this
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There will be. This is a great victory. Let's see what Trump says. And then behind the scenes
9:02
what the Ukrainians and what Europe think as well. Thanks, Mark. Very good to talk to. Mark Polymeropoulos
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highly decorated former CIA operations officer. And you can listen to him alongside Amber Rudd and Mark Urban on that
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He's one of the co-hosts of the global podcast, The Crisis Room
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