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Reform surge, Labour disaster: Do local elections spell the end for Sir Keir Starmer?
May 8, 2026
Labour is losing councils in former heartlands, whilst Nigel Farage’s party has picked up its first local authority in London. What do the local elections mean for Sir Keir Starmer's future?
City AM's politics and economics reporter Mauricio Alencar joins digital editor Matt Kenyon to dig into the details…
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0:00
These local election results are
0:01
starting to trickle in now. Seeing a
0:03
pretty pretty hefty collapse in areas of
0:06
the Labour vote and we're seeing some
0:07
real reform UK surges. So, we are seeing
0:10
Labour losing a lot of wards and some
0:12
councils in former heartlands. Whereas,
0:15
Nigel Farage over there has already been
0:17
having a pretty triumphant morning.
0:19
We've seen Starmer go on the airwaves
0:20
insisting that he's going to steady the
0:22
course and that the public needs him for
0:24
stability.
0:25
A lot going on. I think this is a real
0:27
consequence of five-party politics that
0:29
it ends up feeling like a bit of a game
0:31
of four-dimensional chess to actually
0:32
decode what any of this means, what
0:34
conclusions to take from it. Luckily,
0:36
joined by Mauricio Alencar, our politics
0:39
and economics reporter. Mauricio, how
0:40
are you doing?
0:41
>> I'm good. I'm good. I got in a bit later
0:43
cuz I'm on the late shift. We had our
0:46
other sort of star reporter, Felix
0:48
Armstrong, who normally covers retail
0:50
doing the sort of morning shift. So,
0:51
>> he's he's still squirreling away on the
0:53
blog and I think and you're taking over
0:55
sort of around around lunchtime. And
0:57
then you've got and you also have got
0:57
you're doing a big sweep into the
0:58
weekend cuz these results are
1:00
>> Yeah.
1:00
>> keep coming for days.
1:02
>> Yeah, so City A.M. will be sort of
1:03
covering all the all the local
1:05
elections. I think there's a few
1:07
councils in London. Tower Hamlets is one
1:10
where the results will come out on
1:11
Saturday. I think Scotland we might see
1:14
some late results as well. So, we'll be
1:16
covering you can go to cityam.com and
1:19
keep reading our live blog coverage,
1:22
um, you know, for the latest updates.
1:23
>> This is excellent digital plugging.
1:24
Let's let's let's dig into these
1:25
results. I know I know I know we're
1:26
particularly interested in London. Well,
1:28
and we'll touch on the national picture
1:29
as well. So, we've had these early
1:30
results since we've seen Reform have won
1:32
their first council in Havering ever.
1:35
>> Um, how inconsequential is this moment?
1:38
>> It is really consequential. I think
1:40
there's the kind of interesting thing
1:42
about Havering is
1:44
in the campaigns, Nigel Farage and
1:47
Andrew Rosindell who obviously defected
1:49
from the Tories to
1:50
Reform.
1:51
They were talking about they want to
1:54
sort of win in places that are in London
1:57
or are considered London borough, but
1:59
who which don't feel like London. And
2:01
Havering is a sort of good example of
2:03
that where I think Andrew Rosindell has
2:05
campaigned for
2:07
um it to become part of Essex.
2:09
>> Oh, it's it's been called um Hexit.
2:11
>> Yeah, and and and you know, that's what
2:13
they're sort of pressing on this morning
2:14
is um
2:16
the fact that Kemi Badenoch, along with
2:19
other Shadow Cabinet Ministers there,
2:22
have seats in Essex areas. And the more
2:26
they can sort of own Essex, the more
2:28
they think they can sort of squash the
2:29
Tories. Um so, that's like the sort of
2:32
first step in their
2:33
in their sort of road map towards, you
2:36
know, actually finding a way of getting
2:38
a majority in national elections, you
2:41
know, which I guess next general
2:43
election could be in 2029. Laura
2:45
Kuenssberg thinks it might be in next
2:47
year.
2:48
So, you know, it's it's part of the
2:50
strategy, isn't it?
2:51
>> It's interesting cuz I know that in his
2:52
speech this morning, he said half the
2:54
Shadow Cabinet is in Essex. And that And
2:55
that is true because that that is just
2:56
where the sort of the rump of Tory MPs
2:58
from 2024 landed. I remember a time like
3:00
Richard Holden did his famous like
3:02
chicken run to Basildon and Billericay,
3:04
which was seen at the time as about the
3:05
safest seat you could get. Ditto Kemi
3:07
Badenoch's seat. I suppose what's
3:10
striking about these results is we're
3:11
seeing almost this Reform pinch and
3:13
movement into Tory heartlands in Essex,
3:15
so the traditional Mondeo man, but also
3:18
into the sort of the red wall
3:20
>> Yeah.
3:20
>> Labour or the previously Boris Johnson
3:22
Tory areas in the northeast. Which is
3:25
inter- I mean, do you get the impression
3:26
that people are starting to break away
3:29
from, I suppose, traditional left-right
3:31
voting patterns into something maybe
3:32
more like anti-status quo driven?
3:35
>> Clearly. I mean,
3:36
we're still it's around 11:00 a.m. right
3:38
now as we're speaking, and the majority
3:41
of councils, um I think great a Green
3:45
Party sort of um official was sort of
3:48
saying this morning that actually 90% of
3:50
their sort of target seats haven't been
3:52
announced as as a as of time of this um
3:55
podcast being recorded. Um so, we get to
3:59
see the kind of Greens really sort of
4:00
show there
4:02
where they're um
4:03
you know, where they can sort of muster
4:05
some
4:06
some support and
4:08
>> and see in those places like Hackney and
4:09
to be like bellwethers for
4:10
>> Yeah, yeah. For their their high
4:11
watermark.
4:12
>> Hackney, Lewisham,
4:14
um
4:15
you know, even areas like Camden where
4:17
obviously Starmer's Starmer's um seat in
4:20
Holborn and St Pancras is um or you
4:23
know, that that will be an interesting
4:24
result as well for sure later in the
4:26
afternoon. Um
4:28
I mean, obviously nationally speaking,
4:30
we're also seeing areas in the red wall
4:33
where they were lost seats, but you
4:34
know, focusing on London
4:37
I mean, we've really seen those kind of
4:38
really
4:40
seismic results, Wandsworth and
4:42
Westminster as well where the Tories
4:44
have actually managed to well, they've
4:47
won Westminster back and they claimed
4:50
they might be able to take control of
4:51
Wandsworth even though there was no sort
4:53
of clear majority.
4:54
>> saying that's funny. Yeah.
4:55
>> Yeah, yeah. And that was really sort of
4:57
trailed by the Tories as the two main
5:00
councils that they really wanted to win
5:02
back because they're I mean, Margaret
5:03
Thatcher's favorite council was
5:05
Wandsworth.
5:06
Um low taxes and I think next few years
5:09
will be pretty tough for the
5:10
Conservatives.
5:11
>> pretty When they lost that a few years
5:12
back, that was a pretty crushing moment.
5:13
Yeah, crushing. I I've seen some
5:14
suggestions online from some some sort
5:16
of younger Tory campaigners that
5:18
nightlife played a huge part in um
5:20
absolutely Westminster because that
5:22
encompasses Soho.
5:23
>> Yeah, but Soho has loads of Nimbys who
5:26
are against Oxford Street
5:27
pedestrianization and that was the
5:29
Tories um you know, they were
5:31
campaigning against the
5:32
pedestrianization of Oxford Street.
5:34
>> But it's weird cuz it was a big part of
5:35
their campaign and they appeared to have
5:36
voted for it. So, I I
5:37
unless it's people but I I mean, again,
5:39
I I suppose Westminster is one of the
5:41
strangest wards probably in the country
5:43
because it obviously includes like the
5:45
seat of our government, the seat of
5:47
nightlife in London, and then just some
5:49
other kind of random bits around Pimlico
5:50
as well.
5:51
>> residents in the in the country.
5:53
>> So it's it is strange, but it's also
5:54
yeah, it's interesting cuz I suppose I
5:56
don't think anyone was pricing in like a
5:57
micro Tory resurgence in London.
5:59
>> Yeah.
6:00
>> And I think it has I mean very
6:01
interesting implications for the
6:02
mayoralty. We were talking about this on
6:03
the podcast earlier in the week. The
6:05
idea that actually the right Tory
6:07
candidate, especially in this new like
6:08
first-past-the-post arrangement in
6:10
London, could potentially squeeze
6:12
through a sort of green uh
6:15
Labour
6:16
uh fistfight in in 2028. That's kind of
6:18
anyone's game at the moment. I mean what
6:20
what do you think this means for Sadiq
6:21
Khan?
6:22
>> Sadiq Khan, well, okay, so
6:25
that's a quite interesting position and
6:27
we I think we're yet to actually hear
6:28
properly from him. Um Reform obviously
6:32
pitched this the sort of London
6:34
electoral campaigns around Sian Berry
6:37
Cunningham, who's there
6:39
uh standing candidate for the next
6:41
mayoral elections.
6:43
Um
6:44
a couple of years' time. Um the Tories
6:47
might sort of find some confidence that
6:49
actually, you know, Boris Johnson Labour
6:51
Labour has always sort of held London
6:53
and dominated London. Then Boris Johnson
6:55
came in and absolutely swept um the
6:59
elections in in the capital city.
7:02
>> And that's especially just so
7:02
particularly by getting the the
7:04
outreaches of London and really
7:05
dominating in that area.
7:07
>> And Reform might sort of sniff an
7:08
opportunity. The Tories might also sniff
7:11
an opportunity there. Um
7:13
Maybe, you know, there's also I I think
7:15
there's something at play which
7:17
is around scrutiny of the London mayor
7:21
and
7:22
you know, whether
7:24
whe- because Sadiq Khan has started to
7:26
be a little bit more active in the sort
7:28
of national conversation around Labour.
7:31
He's been the sort of most senior Labour
7:33
figure to actually say the Labour Party
7:34
should campaign to rejoin the European
7:36
Union.
7:38
Um
7:39
and you can kind of sense that he's
7:41
shifting his rhetoric just beyond
7:43
talking just about London and the
7:45
capital city and crime for example to
7:47
talking about those sort of big
7:49
political issues. So, there is a kind of
7:51
um
7:53
void that to be filled by some other
7:55
sort of popular candidate.
7:56
>> I think you was alluding to a very
7:58
difficult dilemma for labor now because
7:59
they need to basically decide with these
8:01
elections with quite conflicting data
8:03
points. Are they going to drift into the
8:05
sort of Milliband rainery soft left or
8:07
are they going to hold a more starmerite
8:10
mahmoodite uh position for instance on
8:12
immigration? I suppose the big question
8:14
for them now is do they continue to see
8:17
the sort of Morgan McSweeney argument of
8:19
reform are the major existential threat
8:21
to labor or do they pivot towards
8:24
actually trying to fight a green
8:26
search? Where do you think they'll land?
8:30
>> Uh it's anyone's best guess, isn't it? I
8:31
mean
8:33
will Starmer really stand to be the
8:34
prime minister by the time the next
8:36
election comes around?
8:37
>> he will he have to at that point? And
8:39
will will he will he quite soon have to
8:40
lay out a timeline for his
8:42
>> I'll tell you what I'll tell you what.
8:43
The the labor
8:45
results coming in are are pretty
8:46
damning. But actually if we look, this
8:49
is what actually a former cabinet
8:51
minister um told me a few weeks ago is
8:55
the prime minister has the kind of
8:56
authority to sort of set out the
8:58
calendar. And what you can see coming
9:01
ahead of us is okay, we've got these
9:03
election results there. They're pretty
9:05
nasty for the labor party. But actually
9:07
next week
9:08
next Wednesday we have the king's
9:09
speech.
9:10
>> Mhm.
9:11
>> And in that we will see all the new
9:13
bills that are going to be sort of
9:15
passed through or or brought introduced
9:17
in the next parliament parliamentary
9:19
session next 12 to 18 months. And at
9:21
that point it kind can kind of be a
9:24
reset moment, another reset moment
9:26
obviously um for
9:28
>> Reset number 12.
9:29
>> Yeah, reset number 30 I think.
9:32
The for the government to sort of say,
9:33
okay, we've got this bill which will
9:36
ease regulation on nuclear power, for
9:39
example. We've got this bill which is on
9:41
resetting EU relations.
9:44
Um
9:45
Uh the lots of different ideas and
9:47
policy bills that actually will sort of
9:50
rebuild their policy platform. And they
9:52
might that might sort of indicate people
9:54
might come up with suggestions or this
9:56
policy is to sort of get the support of
9:58
the soft left. This policy is to sort of
10:02
uh you know, stave off the threat of
10:03
from reform or the Greens. Um I mean,
10:06
we'll see. I think there will be some
10:08
cat
10:09
sort of you know, rabbit out the hat
10:11
kind of um
10:12
tricks pulled out in pulled out in that
10:14
King's Speech. Starmer's set to do some
10:17
sort of speech before then.
10:19
Um sort of setting out his his new
10:21
policy agenda.
10:22
>> Well, I've I've definitely heard
10:24
rumblings that closer EU alignment is
10:26
like more on the table than potentially
10:28
people think. I suppose maybe what maybe
10:31
one one more thing So, we've not quite
10:32
got stuck into this yet. The Greens I
10:35
think just been have a very interesting
10:36
final week of the election where they
10:38
I've been the quiet story maybe of the
10:40
last 6 months that the Greens have been
10:42
ticking up into like sometimes being in
10:43
second place, often being in third
10:45
place, but like being a real contender
10:46
in the polls for the first time. And
10:48
then
10:49
um following the really awful attack in
10:51
Golders Green last week and Zack
10:53
Polanski's comments afterwards and also
10:55
um his uh quite public spat with uh the
10:58
Met Police Chief, Mark Rowley. Um his
11:02
favorables have gone really quite badly
11:04
down. I I wonder and I wonder if you've
11:06
seen any cuz I I I get the sense that
11:09
there might have been some last-minute
11:11
anti-Green tactical voting. Is that
11:13
something that you have seen anything
11:15
about? So, our our assistant columnist,
11:17
our resident
11:18
>> Exactly. Yeah.
11:20
>> was caught wearing a Labour
11:23
>> A Labour rosette?
11:24
>> rosette.
11:24
>> We never thought we'd see the day when
11:26
Alice Denby voted Labour, but she has.
11:28
>> Encourage actively encouraging other
11:30
Tories to vote Labour in areas where,
11:32
you know there there was a sort of two
11:34
horse race I guess between Greens
11:37
councilors and and Labour.
11:39
Um, I think
11:41
Look, we have to talk to some pollsters
11:42
but surely it's quite hard to actually
11:45
figure out what the sort of voting
11:47
intentions are versus actually you know
11:50
some people sort of pinch their nose.
11:52
>> It's it's it's it's impossible to know I
11:54
think.
11:54
>> Have you had friends who have
11:55
sort of thought other people are beyond
11:57
help?
11:58
>> I think I think anecdotally I've had
11:59
people who who've got nervous about the
12:01
idea of having like a Green controlled
12:02
council and also just find in the same
12:04
way that I know a lot of people who find
12:05
reform quite quite a culturally
12:07
difficult thing to get their head
12:09
around. I think probably the same for
12:10
Greens. I think if if anything the sort
12:12
of rise of five party politics could end
12:14
up actually entrenching
12:16
Labour and Tories in in a kind of
12:17
perverse way
12:18
as feeling more moderate than ever no
12:20
matter what their actual positions are.
12:23
But anyway, I think I think we're we're
12:24
a bit pinched for time so I think let's
12:26
leave it there for the moment. I imagine
12:27
we'll be revisiting this into next week.
12:31
As you mentioned earlier with a very
12:33
expertly done digital plug, we are
12:35
blogging basically all weekend on this.
12:37
We're going to non-stop like a scary
12:39
amount of blogging. This is this is
12:40
basically I would say this is the
12:41
destination for all things London
12:42
politics this weekend. I think we've got
12:44
that on lock and we've got our best
12:46
people and London's best people on that
12:48
including yourself.
12:50
So I think we're going to have to wait
12:50
and see and we're going to have to wait
12:51
and see basically next week whether
12:53
there's been
12:54
any big political movements but
12:55
Michelle, thank you very much for
12:56
joining. Speak to you very soon.
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