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How Many Pairs Of The Air Jordan 4 Fire Red Were Possibly Made, Resell & Watch Out For Fakes
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Feb 20, 2025
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View Video Transcript
0:00
hey what's going on guys uh this is
0:01
tybahasakis.com
0:03
and today we are going to talk about the
0:04
jordan 4 uh fire red
0:06
now as you all know which is not
0:09
something new to most of you guys
0:10
and the shoe came out the first time in
0:12
1989 and we've seen it come back like
0:15
like i guess twice in 2005
0:18
and then in 2006 in a special edition
0:21
and then we also had it in 2012.
0:23
so this is a shoe that you know a lot of
0:25
people are i guess looking forward to
0:27
because what nike did is
0:28
they went back to actually uh bringing
0:31
back the original
0:32
makeup from 1989 with the
0:35
nike air heel and the vintage uh
0:39
hang tag on the side so this is the shoe
0:41
that a lot of people want
0:43
it's fine because in 2012 that show
0:45
actually sat at my local mall for a
0:47
little bit
0:48
and it actually went on sale but i never
0:50
really
0:51
grabbed it i just don't like white shoes
0:54
to begin with
0:56
so but again it's a good shoe and i'm
0:59
thinking a lot of people are going to
1:00
want to go for it so this morning we're
1:02
going to talk about
1:03
uh how many pairs are made and we're
1:04
going to talk resell and i'm also going
1:06
to show you
1:07
that i've seen bootlegs on the market so
1:09
you may want to be careful i haven't
1:11
really done a side by side comparison
1:12
yet but i'm going to be doing that in uh
1:14
days to come
1:16
so let's jump into actually looking at
1:17
the
1:19
numbers now as you guys all know the
1:22
first step we always take is uh
1:24
set up our assumptions we want to know
1:25
who's getting the shoe and how many are
1:27
they getting
1:28
and all that good stuff so let's start
1:30
off with the assumption so i'm going to
1:31
lift this up a little bit
1:33
now first let's figure out who's getting
1:35
it so we have food action
1:36
foot locker champs and it's going to be
1:38
installed online east bay that's going
1:40
to be online only
1:41
dick's sporting goods our finish line jd
1:44
sports
1:45
that's also finish line and then hybrid
1:47
and city gear
1:48
at the same company and then for the
1:50
minor chains in the us
1:52
we have downtown locker room jimmy jazz
1:55
shoe palace
1:56
and then chic shoes then
1:59
we also have uh the assumption that
2:01
we're gonna set
2:02
so the first thing we want to do is this
2:04
i'm gonna go with the fact that uh foot
2:06
locker and champs
2:08
and food action are gonna get 40 of the
2:10
total inventory for the us of a
2:12
because footlogger again like i said in
2:15
in my previous uh
2:16
presentation they have a great
2:18
relationship with nike so they always
2:20
get
2:20
like preferential treatment so to speak
2:25
now the second is uh the remaining major
2:27
chains and minor chains are gonna
2:29
receive like one third and the other one
2:32
third
2:33
we don't know who's gonna get that now
2:35
i'm also gonna assume that only two
2:36
thirds of the foot locker are gonna get
2:38
the shoe
2:39
uh foot same thing with foot action and
2:40
same thing with champs
2:42
because when i was checking maryland
2:43
there was like about 20 locations that
2:45
got it
2:46
so if you if you trying to like if you
2:49
set up the assumption that sounds like
2:50
it's two-thirds of all the foot locker
2:52
location they're gonna get it
2:54
so if you do that in global in in in the
2:57
usa it's gonna be 667 stores based on
2:59
the assumptions
3:00
181 foot action stores and then 365
3:04
champs on locations and then i'm also
3:07
going to
3:07
assume that all household groups are
3:09
going to get it that's not even a
3:10
question because house of hoops
3:12
is like food logos type of luxury
3:15
or they get the extra um marquee stuff
3:19
so house of groups is certainly gonna
3:20
get it all hustle groups are gonna get
3:22
it
3:23
and then let's go over the next instead
3:24
of assumption i'm also gonna assume that
3:26
uh house of hoops is gonna get 48 pairs
3:29
and then footlocker champs and fraction
3:31
i'm going to give them 12 pairs
3:33
per location and then for foot locker
3:36
champs and footlocker online
3:38
uh i'm going to give them a half of the
3:40
total the physical stores are receiving
3:42
and i'm also going to give east bay by a
3:44
quarter of the total from
3:46
the phys the the online allocation from
3:48
foot locker champs
3:49
and then for action and now we can find
3:51
our numbers that's pretty easy
3:53
so it's just simple uh multiplication
3:55
170 times 48 that's for
3:57
hustle groups that's 8160 a regular
4:00
footstool uh footlocker stores that's
4:02
going to be 6667 minus 170 times 12
4:05
which is 59 64.
4:07
and then food action is going to be 181
4:09
times 12
4:10
which is uh 2172
4:14
and then champs is gonna be 365 times 12
4:17
which is 43.80
4:19
and then for the online allocation you
4:21
add all these numbers together and then
4:23
divided by two
4:24
i get up to 10 338 pairs and then for
4:28
east bay we take this number
4:29
split it and divide it by four and we
4:31
get 25 85
4:34
and then for the total for foot locker
4:35
alone and and
4:37
foot lockers family which is production
4:39
champion and and
4:40
east bay it's gonna be all these things
4:42
added together
4:43
i came up with 33 599
4:46
and i took it up to 35 000 pairs because
4:49
of possible errors that i made
4:51
now since i assume that this is 40 of
4:54
the total production for
4:56
north america to find a total for the
4:58
usa it's going to be
5:00
35 000 plus 35 000 plus 17
5:03
and 500 which is 40 40 and 20
5:06
basically okay so we come up with 85 87
5:10
500 pairs that's just for north america
5:13
based on the assumptions now for the
5:15
worldwide production
5:16
what i did was i took this number and i
5:19
kind of times it by two or three
5:20
so you can kind of see that the numbers
5:22
are going to be anywhere between 80 000
5:24
and 160 000 plus or even more again i
5:27
was very conservative with these numbers
5:29
so i believe the actual numbers will
5:31
exceed the projection
5:32
under projected numbers but to be safe
5:35
i'll say anywhere between 80
5:36
and 160 or 80 000 or 200 000
5:40
now again i need to add my disclaimer i
5:43
do not work for any of these
5:44
brands that i talk about or the
5:46
retailers so i don't have access to
5:48
their data
5:49
so it's based everything is based on um
5:52
assumptions that are built
5:54
so take everything with a grain of salt
5:57
now i'm going to pause for a second
5:58
and then we're going to come back and
6:00
talk about resell
6:03
now before we talk about resell uh
6:05
resale or whatever you wanna
6:07
some people say we sell resale or
6:08
whatever um
6:10
i wanna show you on the fake ones i
6:13
haven't really done a study on them yet
6:15
but i can tell you uh some of the things
6:17
you can look for is always the tongue
6:18
like if you look at most fake fours the
6:21
tongue is always a telltale sign like
6:24
what you should have really like this
6:26
should be a double fold here
6:28
you see this you don't really see that
6:29
double photo and this picture is kind of
6:31
doesn't really show what i wanted to
6:32
show you but it's supposed to be a
6:33
double fold
6:35
and it isn't there on the fake one so
6:37
you always want to focus on this one
6:38
there's like a double fold almost like
6:40
the shoe has to like form this kind of
6:42
uh the
6:43
liner and the the outside they have to
6:46
have this double fold that you can see
6:48
and you can see like there's a gap
6:49
between the two there's usually like a
6:51
definition there
6:52
you can see that there's a distinction
6:53
between the two on the fake ones
6:55
you usually don't have that so i'm just
6:57
going to show you what the fix looks
6:58
like
6:59
and then sometimes this week i'm going
7:01
to do a side-by-side comparison betw
7:04
because one of the fake companies
7:06
reached out to me and sent me a fake
7:07
shoe so it's good to have fake on hand
7:09
and authentic
7:10
so i'm going to show you what to look
7:11
for again if you sell
7:13
bootlegs or ua or whatever you sell
7:16
i'm not gonna come after you be like you
7:18
should now look i'm just trying to help
7:20
people
7:20
okay this is just to help you so if
7:23
you're selling fakes
7:24
you gotta be upfront with it and tell
7:25
people listen this is a good fake
7:28
but don't pass the fakes as an authentic
7:30
that's when i have a problem with it
7:32
just tell people hey listen
7:33
this is a good material this is still
7:35
looks just like the authentic
7:37
and i'm just be honest with what you're
7:39
selling don't try to like fool people
7:41
that's
7:42
that's when i have a problem with that
7:43
okay because if somebody want to sell a
7:45
fake one
7:46
go ahead i'm not gonna come after you
7:48
that's not my problem
7:49
you know i'm just gonna warn you and i'm
7:51
gonna say don't try to fool people again
7:53
this is against intellectual properties
7:55
and all that kind of stuff so you know
7:57
that it's not right you know so if you
7:58
can sleep at night knowing that you're
8:00
doing stuff like that
8:01
hey i guess your conscience is tiered so
8:03
i don't know
8:04
but i also want to show you that i've
8:06
done a lot of comparison as of late
8:08
uh i did one on the jubilee 11 i did one
8:11
on the fragment three so you can go on
8:13
the website i'll have a link for you in
8:14
the description okay to see all these
8:16
things
8:16
so the dark marker one the off noise
8:19
union four
8:20
uh the off-white jordan five and then
8:24
the
8:24
concord and black and and purple twelves
8:28
the lockheed green jordan one the fake
8:30
psd4 and just a lot more i have 21 pages
8:33
worth of stuff that you can watch so
8:34
check the link in the description
8:36
now we're gonna go back and talk about
8:37
resale
8:39
so let's talk resale here i'm going to
8:41
show you this chart that i created this
8:43
is
8:44
resale value versus time so this was a
8:47
record of
8:48
all the resale value between october
8:50
25th
8:51
and november 24 which is today you can
8:53
see early on
8:55
that she was like at 500 dollars because
8:57
some dummy again just
8:58
jumped on the occasion and just bought
9:00
the shoe because he you know imports
9:02
buying that that's what happens
9:03
again nike had a shock drop so i guess a
9:05
lot of people saw it they got they got
9:07
kind of like their eyes got big
9:09
and people have money to blow so they
9:10
went ahead and paid 500 dollars
9:12
but you see that there's a major drop it
9:14
came down to like 375
9:15
and it and they stayed in like the 330s
9:18
and all that and then you had another
9:19
day where there's a spike
9:20
you went up to like four or four and and
9:22
this is again
9:24
this is again uh cumulative uh resale
9:26
value per
9:27
day so i took all the values for one day
9:29
and i found the reset value for that day
9:31
now you can see that there's uh they
9:33
stayed at like three 350 and 340
9:36
and then came back down to like 270 and
9:38
then 260 and 280 and went back up to
9:40
like 333 today
9:41
so i'll say that this resale value which
9:43
i'll show you in my next chart in a
9:45
second
9:45
let's just go to that i like to read it
9:49
all so you can actually see what's going
9:50
on
9:51
again like there was like some outliers
9:53
at 500
9:54
469 404 so what i did was i took out the
9:56
outliers and i recalculated
9:58
the the resale value and then when i did
10:01
it
10:02
it came up to about 290 dollars so you
10:04
can expect a shoe based on the size that
10:06
you get to sell between 260
10:08
and 300 so usually what happens with
10:12
like
10:12
general releases is they lose like 10
10:14
percent of their value by the time they
10:15
release but that's not going to happen
10:17
with this jordan 4
10:18
and 5 red i think it's going to keep its
10:20
value it's going to stay at like 260 and
10:22
300
10:23
based on what you have so now we're
10:25
going to go ahead and look at the resale
10:26
value
10:27
by size to give you an idea of what size
10:29
to get if you're trying to flip it
10:32
you can pretty much see what's going on
10:34
here right like smaller sizes
10:36
tend to have like a better uh
10:40
return like size four and a half five to
10:42
like six
10:44
they were in a like high 300s which is
10:47
pretty good
10:48
you know and then the mid sizes they
10:50
kind of stayed within the 260 and 290 a
10:52
little bit
10:53
like less than like in the low 300s and
10:56
then you have a 14 or three or six and
10:58
the other sizes
10:59
in the like 260 and 280. so this is what
11:02
you can expect you can go back on the
11:03
website and look at the chart if you
11:05
want to but i would say
11:06
aim for the small sizes you can see it
11:08
over here if you want that's why i put a
11:09
gold on it
11:10
and the main sizes are just as good if
11:12
you want to flip this shoe but again
11:14
a lot of people are probably want to
11:16
shoot for a sentimental or
11:17
they just want to have it takes them
11:19
back to like the early 90s
11:21
when shoes were really popping and
11:22
people actually like shoes for what they
11:23
were
11:24
so a lot of people want that for
11:25
that reason so i would say
11:27
uh if you want to flip it leave it alone
11:29
and let people that want to actually
11:31
want and get the shoe
11:32
because this shoe is probably going to
11:33
give you between 40 and and 60 dollars
11:36
max i'm actually gonna show you and read
11:37
off my chart in a second
11:39
let's look at it you see
11:42
nice like i say size four six the yield
11:44
to the highest
11:45
returns seven to fourteen are pretty
11:47
much consistent with the projected uh
11:49
resale value
11:50
so you can again you can go back to the
11:52
website and and look at the chart and
11:53
that's gonna help you find
11:55
what size you want to get but the shoe
11:57
is like 212 after tax that's if you live
11:59
in
11:59
the state of mainland so the profit
12:01
margin will fall between like 40 to 60
12:04
and then your markup is like 19 to like
12:06
29 the shoe is gonna sell out instantly
12:08
that's not a question
12:10
but as fast like we said i'll say it's
12:13
not too great
12:14
but 40 to 60 i'll take that any day but
12:16
again leave the shoes for people that
12:18
actually want the shoe because i know
12:19
a lot of people have been waiting for it
12:20
and they want the shoe so please don't
12:22
be
12:22
don't be too greedy that's all i'm gonna
12:24
say don't be greedy all right
12:26
now for those that want to buy the shoes
12:28
now you don't want to wait for all that
12:29
resale
12:30
madness and you don't want to go through
12:33
um
12:33
trying to get it on sneakers and lose
12:35
out i'll have a link for you
12:37
and and let me show you exactly where it
12:39
is
12:40
you can check on the website i'll have a
12:42
link for you here you can click here
12:43
it's going to take you straight
12:44
on to ebay for the authenticity
12:47
guaranteed shoes
12:48
okay if you want to get it now i'll have
12:50
the link for you in the description be
12:51
sure to check that out
12:52
all right again thanks for watching and
12:55
please
12:56
be sure to and to share this information
12:58
if it helps you out
12:59
and then also subscribe to house of
13:00
kicks it does help me
13:02
and if you want to be very generous i
13:04
will invite you to go on my website now
13:05
and click
13:06
this link here this banner and then
13:08
donate to hashtags because
13:10
all this stuff that i do is basically
13:12
for my own financial resources
13:13
nobody helps me on this website it's
13:15
just me it's a one-man operation
13:17
and with the help of the grace of god
13:18
i've been able to do this for like 15
13:20
years
13:21
so please if you feel that i'll
13:23
appreciate your generous donations again
13:25
thanks for watching this is ty from
13:27
master kicks
13:28
and if you want me to work on a certain
13:29
shoe i will invite you to just uh
13:31
email me or send a message via youtube i
13:34
always reply to all the messages that i
13:35
get
13:36
and thanks for watching and happy
13:37
thanksgiving to you
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