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Donald Trump says that a peace deal between the US and Iran will be signed tomorrow. The US President also claimed that following the agreement being signed, the Strait of Hormuz would be 'open to all.' The waterway - through which one-fifth of the world's oil is transported - has been virtually closed since February 28. 00:00 - LBC's Washington Correspondent Simon Marks explains what some Republicans think of the terms of the deal. 03:15 - Middle East analyst at Oxford Analytica Dr Laura James has 'high confidence that there will not be a deal in 60 days. 06:53 - Caller Tony thinks we are in 'a vicious circle' and believes 'the war continues on'. 08:13 - Listener Graham thinks 'the only thing that has changed since the war in Trump family's bank balance.' 08:35 - Listener Lee claims 'Iran has achieved complete victory over the US'. 08:55 - Listener Nikki thinks Trump's 'ridiculous, disastrous war in Iran has just made things 100 times worse for the poor population there'. 09:20 - Caller Terry believes that 'this is the worst deal Trump has made', adding 'the Obama deal was nice.' 11:12 - Caller Andrew feels sorry for the American taxpayers, because of how much has been spent on the war. Listen to the full show on the all-new LBC App: https://app.af.lbc.co.uk/btnc/thenewlbcapp #lbc #nickferrari #simonmarks #iran #donaldtrump #usa #netanyahu #middleeast #politics LBC is the home of live debate around news and current affairs in the UK. Join in the conversation and listen at https://www.lbc.co.uk/ Sign up to LBC’s weekly newsletter here: https://l-bc.co/signup
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0:00
Simon Marks joins me now
0:01
OK, Simon, your interpretation. Top trumps for the president or in the dumps
0:05
Which is it and why? Good morning. Well, good morning to you, Nick. He is now on the receiving end of absolute fury
0:11
by some of his fellow Republicans over the terms of this agreement
0:15
Remember, it calls for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is good news, the cessation of all military hostilities
0:22
at least for now, which is good news, and an agreement by Iran that they will never own
0:27
develop or procure nuclear weapons, but they said exactly the same thing in literally the very first paragraph of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
0:38
that was crafted by Barack Obama and others that President Trump likes to assail
0:44
Now a 60-day period of much more complex negotiation begins, and that is going to be the really hard stuff
0:51
Iran says it won't charge tolls on shipping passing through the strait for the next 60 days
0:57
But after that, they can currently impose costly fees that could send the price of oil back up
1:04
What of the plan for the U.S. to go into Iran and recover its stockpile of highly enriched uranium buried under the rubble of its nuclear sites
1:13
That is going to be massively complex, even if the Iranians agree to it
1:17
The deal calls eventually for all sanctions against Iran to be lifted
1:22
And most of all, it is the U.S. plan to create with its allies a $300 billion reconstruction and development fund to rebuild Iran's economy that is causing President Trump massive difficulty on Capitol Hill
1:40
Why, Republicans want to know, would the US prop up a regime that the president has just fought a war that was originally predicated around the idea of toppling that regime
1:54
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, powerful voice in the president's ear, is fuming, calling this agreement awful
2:01
So, enormous questions, including, of course, whether the Israelis are going to abide by the President's insistence
2:09
that Prime Minister Netanyahu must abandon his military assaults on Lebanon. There are all sorts of ways, Nick, in which this thing could still, over the next 60 days and beyond, fall apart
2:21
Just lastly, so the author of The Art of the Deal, there's much questioning about this deal
2:25
You've mentioned briefly, how do you think the opposition back home for him, back in Washington, will start to develop, Simon
2:30
Well, I think the opposition is already exhibiting tremendous hostility to this
2:35
and members of Congress are saying not just in many cases that they oppose it
2:39
but that he's got to come and get congressional approval for this
2:44
if not for this memorandum, certainly for any final deal. So this is going to be complicated
2:50
He's trying to move on because he knows that Republican prospects in midterm elections in November are dimmed every day
2:59
that hostilities and no deal is agreed, but that 60-day period that is now getting underway
3:05
is going to be very, very hazardous for him. Simon Marks, LBC's Washington correspondent
3:10
but tease in for my colleague Ian Dale today and through the week so you can hear him then
3:13
Let's turn at 11 after 7 to Dr Laura James. Now, Dr James is Deputy Director and Middle East yst
3:18
at Oxford ytica a geopolitical ysis firm owned by Dow Jones and joins me now OK Doctor let turn your expert ysis on this In many deals there has to be a winner and a loser Is this such a deal And if so who is triumphant
3:33
Good morning. Good morning. I think it's worth underlining that this is a pragmatic exit strategy
3:41
from a disastrous conflict. And, you know, in that sense, you could describe it as a win-win deal
3:47
But what I'd also say is that, you know, over the recent days, we've heard various leaks initially from the Iranian side of what the terms were
3:57
And my assumption on hearing the Iranian leaks was this is probably not true
4:02
They're spinning it. They will have had to make reciprocal concessions to get some of these things
4:07
When I read the document for the first time, I was amazed at how close it was to the Iranian leaks
4:13
So in that sense, I think their negotiators won. Although, as I say, both sides needed to get out of an untenable situation
4:21
And that's all this is, really. This isn't a full deal. There's no guarantee of an agreement in 60 days
4:27
What this is, is something to take economic pressure off Iran and to take the pressure off the global economy
4:33
And that it might do. But all of the important issues are deferred
4:37
And the thing about the deal is it doesn't include any real sticks to make sure that a final agreement does happen
4:47
It's a kind of let's take the pressure off, let's deal with the immediate problems
4:53
And, you know, there's a kind of idealistic idea that there are carrots here, but there are benefits potentially to both sides if there is a final deal
5:02
And those benefits won't come until the final deal. But if the price is too high domestically for either side, it won't happen
5:10
You referenced the final deal, and you touched on this briefly, Doctor. What is your level of confidence that we will actually have a deal in 60 days' time
5:18
I would say I've got very high confidence there'll be no deal in 60 days' time
5:22
And I think it's at least possible that this will be deferred indefinitely
5:27
The agreement says that both sides can agree to defer. There are massively complex issues for negotiation here between the difficult nuclear verification issues, plus the fact that at least some of the sanctions that the US would be lifting have to be lifted by Congress rather than the president
5:46
So it's massive. And I can't see them choosing not to defer the deadline because neither side wants to go back into this conflict
5:55
But equally, I don't think either side is ready to make massive concessions. concessions. So as I say, I think this is a means to lift immediate pressure from the
6:03
markets and for Iran to get some oil out. The bigger gains are not necessarily going
6:09
to be there. That, I think, is a big problem for the global economy, because a lot of the
6:14
shipping companies are saying we really need a more secure, stable deal to start using
6:20
the Strait of Hormuz properly again. I must end it there. Thank you very much for your time, Dr. Laura James, Deputy Director
6:26
in the Middle East, unless at Oxford ytica. It's impossible to give you an accurate number
6:32
but the number of deaths is in its thousands. It could be, some estimates, as high as 12, 13, 14,000 people in total
6:37
in the whole conflict, not just, obviously, with Iran. So the most important thing is, of course, the killing stops
6:43
but does Iran emerge as the victor? What if the fact that President Trump has made all those assertions in France but he actually got trouble at home and he needs to get the deal past then Right let come to Tony in Thanet The art of the deal is of course Trump great mantra
6:58
Has he pulled off a good deal here in your view? Good morning. Good morning, Nick
7:03
You've got the problem of Iran demanding that Israel stop fighting the Lebanon, and then
7:10
coming away from that, any talks held between the Lebanon and Israel on peace, Hezbollah
7:17
will not recognise it. So it's like a vicious circle. You know, the war continues on
7:24
because Israel will still pursue Hezbollah because Hezbollah won't recognise peace. Tony, how does Donald Trump emerge from this
7:34
I think he's being belittled. You know, they're making him look silly
7:39
They've made it in such a way that he can never achieve what he wants to
7:43
because what I've just said, Hezbollah... Yep. They're going to continue on
7:49
And do you think he was wooed by the comparative ease and success of Venezuela
7:54
He was probably enticed and encouraged into this by Benjamin Netanyahu, and he's now, some would suggest
8:01
he might be paying the political price back in Washington, as Simon Marks was saying. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes
8:06
Well, I don't know. They're quite big shoes, I imagine. Tony, thank you
8:11
Let's get some social media comment on this. Graham Hennigan, since the start of the war to the current end of the war
8:16
The only thing that has changed is the Trump family's bank balance. A lot of deaths and financial crashes in countries so they can profit
8:22
Well, you assert that. I have to say there have been investigations by news organisations on both sides of the Atlantic
8:27
which does seem to indicate that there have been some interesting dealings. Let's just put it like that, some interesting dealings
8:32
We probably will never know. Lee says Iran have achieved complete victory over the US and Israel without killing thousands
8:39
In fact, Iran have killed just 30 people to win. And I'm asking you, how does Donald Trump emerge from this
8:45
if, and I appreciate all the scepticism, but we do at least seem to have a ceasefire
8:50
as the deal has tried to put together over 60 days. So how do you think Trump emerges from this
8:55
Nikki, in Kent, Trump's ridiculous, disastrous war in Iran has just made things 100 times worse for the poor population there
9:02
It has also strengthened the Iranian regime. They can now charge shipping to go through the Strait of Hormuz
9:06
And just to think the Conservative leader and the leader of other parties wanted to join in
9:10
well, they would question that, but do keep them coming on that. It's how Donald Trump emerges that we're really trying to drill down to
9:19
Terry in Bradford. What would you say, Terry? How would you assess what he's done? Good morning
9:24
Good morning, sir. I think this is the worst deal he has made. I think the Obama deal was a nice deal
9:30
They had everything going. Now Iran has learned a lesson that it can block the Strait of Hormuz and block the economy
9:38
The £350 billion is seized assets. Mr Trump is right that they're not going to pay it
9:47
It's the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, and they're already talking to each other, Saudis, Kuwaitis
9:54
They've damaged all the American bases there. They've lost Saudis, the Kuwaitis, the Emirates
10:00
They've lost all trust in America. They were supposed to defend these countries
10:04
Instead, they won't even give them Patriot missiles. They won't give them batteries. They run out. The ships were far away
10:13
So I think these are Iran demands not America demand Iran says pay the retribution We want billion
10:25
We want our sanctions lifted. We want our economy. The other hand is Lebanon
10:30
Israel are still in Lebanon. They have withdrawn their troops. I don't think Netanyahu is going to listen to Trump
10:37
I think this war will continue. It's just a piecework. It's just a frame
10:42
a frame to look at how we go further in six months
10:47
But I can't see it working. All right. Remember, this is 60 days
10:51
so we've got to get through those 60 days before we get to six months. Terry, thank you. And, of course, the other figure we need to remind you of
10:57
is we could be talking about 13,000 or 14,000, and that's the number of lives lost across the entire region
11:04
during this conflict. Maybe 14,000 lives. That's a difficult one to walk back from, isn't it
11:10
Terry, thank you. Good morning, Nick. Thank you for taking my call
11:14
Yes, out of all this, I just feel desperately sorry for the American taxpayers to tell you the truth, Nick
11:21
I mean, they've spent, what is it, hundreds of billions on bombing Iran and various parts of the Middle East
11:28
And now they're going to have to spend 300 billion, I think the number is, to build it back up again
11:33
And all I can see, frankly, Nick, is a huge transfer of funds from the pockets, from the wallets of hard-working taxpayers into the hands of private corporations, be they Retheon, Lockheed, or now construction companies
11:49
And it's a huge transfer of wealth. And it's heartbreaking when you think of all the hospital schools, high-speed rail lines, and all the things that America, with respect, desperately needs
12:02
and it's all been going all in whiz-bangs in the Middle East
12:06
and now into rebuilding it. So I just think it's a... You can't talk about the Department of Government efficiency
12:19
It doesn't seem very efficient use of public funds to mean it. What do you think
12:22
Well, you're right, and we must think of the American taxpayer. I think we also have to think of the possibly 14,000 people in the region
12:30
in the entire region. who've lost their lives as a result of this folly of about 110 days and counting
12:37
That is the figure that jumps out. Oh, indeed, yes, indeed, yeah. The human loss goes without saying, Nick, absolutely is
12:44
And while this is an interim deal, we're told by the man who's put it together, the art of the deal
12:49
from how you can interpret it, it would appear to be pretty much one-sided in a win for Iran
12:55
and a fairly sizable defeat for the United States of America. Indeed, yeah, that's exactly what it looks like
13:01
I think President Trump and his army of scriptwriters are probably now desperately trying to put a positive spin on all this
13:09
But that's going to be a... I admire their creativity if they manage to do it, because it's obviously a huge..
13:16
Lastly, what do you think that they call these famous midterms, which are coming up later this year
13:22
where the repercussions could be felt, of course, for President Trump? I remind you that the price of gas or petrol, as we would call it, is soared
13:28
What do you think the outcome might be there, Andrew? I think the upper house is going to go Democrat
13:36
and then based on that, he's going to find it a lot more difficult
13:40
to push through his big, beautiful bills. So forth, right? Those big, beautiful bills
13:45
Andrew, thank you for that
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